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The slowing job market without layoffs and yet robust, is giving new flexibility ot the US central bank, the Fed. Jerry Powell at Fed does not plan to cut rates and will keep rates steady. This mean housing affordability is affected though the problems in housing have to do with a lack of supply and factors such as retired people hanging on to larger homes and not downsizing. Overall this is a period of robust job growth and moderating inflation, and is a result of the huge investments Biden and Congress in bipartisan way are making to provide industry support to compete with China and in infrastructure investments that yield benefits for overall economic growth and productivity. This is true for investments in science and CHIPS Act.

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The effects of a surge in income volatility for middle class families, many doing back office jobs and one parent losing a job since the recession of 2008. The difficulties of living from paycheck to paycheck.

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Are parts of US society including business and the finance community in big urban centers not aware or conscious enough of the way fentanyl flows are destroying America both rural and urban, communities already devastated by the shipping out of jobs and factories.

For example the WSJ says on the front page story on Feb 4, 2025

"to make his point about what he sees as unfair trade practices and other issues such as fentanyl smuggling and illegal border crossings, both the stated motivations for this round of tariffs." DJT is not making a point- there are no points to make- simply stated Fentanyl is destroying American communities for a very long time.

Deaths from Fentanyl                  490,000

Deaths from Covid pandemic.    1212,000

Deaths from Vietnam War              58,210

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Paul Ryan, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, wins the Republican primary in his house seat of Janesville, Wisconsin, defeating his challenger Nehlen, by 84% to 16%. The Republican nominee Donald Trump earlier had refused to endorse Ryan, and only reluctantly endorsed Ryan following the vice presidential nominee Mike Spence's endorsement of Ryan. Senator Susan Collins, senior Republican senator from Maine, joined other leading Republicans saying she would not support Trump. Paul Ryan has split with Trump on trade, immigration, Mexico, and other issues. He has insisted on decency and fairness in politics, and has won his seat in a working class town that had a closed GM plant in 2008 after Ryan voted to support rescue of the auto industry and worked hard to keep it open. Even though some of his policies have not directly helped working class families, he has won increasing support from his district as the economy recovered with unemployment down to 4.4% in Janesville, according to BLS for May 2016. Much of that support since 1998 has been based on Ryan's decency, faith and family. He made it a condition that he would go back on weekends to Wisconsin to stay in touch with people, when he accepted the position of Speaker of the House, and he listens to local concerns. Ryan said about the national discourse- "It's simple to prey on people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick. It doesn't last. Most of all, it doesn't work." His job in today's deteriorated national discourse is as vital as ever, both for Wisconsin as representing the best in the national spirit, and for the country.   ...

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David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he is quite worried about the steadily declining participation of men 16-64 in the labor force from 85% in the decade after World War II to less than 65% today. This is a blow to the men, their families , government revenues and the economy.

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Andrew Lownie's book provides glimpses into the lives of the Mountbattens, Edwina and Dickie. Mountbatten was the head of the British government in India in 1946 as negotiations were started with Nehru, Gandhi and Jinnah for independent India. The Cabinet Mission (including Cripps) plan of 1946 was  to setup a federation in India with provinces in A, B, and C categories. A being the Central Provinces, United Provinces, Bombay, Madras and other parts of what is now India, B being the Punjab, Sind and what is now Pakistan, and C being the region of Bengal, what is now Bangladesh and West Bengal.This was rejected by Nehru, Sardar Patel, and the Indian National Congress, leading to  Jinnah's call for action, a civil war, and the partition of India 9 months before the plan date of June 1948, in chaotic circumstances, in a hurried manner. The legacy of that two year period is with us today in the upheavals in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, drawing the U.S. and western nations also into endless wars. The period 1939-1941 is covered when Edwina's rather aimless life upto that point changed completely with service to war wounded and for the Red Cross. She also visited the U.S. in 1941 when Mountbatten was given command of an aircraft carrier at Norfolk, Virginia, visiting 28 states. Edwina made up for he aimless years by relentlessly pushing herself to be an equal to her husband in the war effort. This has given the couple their fascinating character. It was also a period of great change as the Labour party under Clement Atlee winning a post war election made the decision to end the British Empire in India. The war had depleted British wealth and Britain lacked the resources to continue the Empire in India. The job of managing the transition went to Mountbatten, a naval officer in the Royal Navy, coming in the tumultuous years of 1946-48 with the quick partition of India under Mountbatten in 1947. Mountbatten stayed after independence in August 1947 as the first Governor General of India.  Edwina and Dickie Mountbatten struck a friendship with Jawaharlal Nehru, and this review in The Hindu shows Jawaharlal, Edwina, Dickie and their daughter Pamela having tea at the residence in Shimla, 1946. Nehru's rejection of the Cabinet Mission plan leading to the appointment of Mountbatten as Viceroy was partly based on his idea that priorities for India post independence was modernizing the economy and reducing poverty. Seven decades later the priorities are still the same, following the experience of Japan, South Korea and China at modernizing the economies in east Asia requiring a greatly accelerated effort.    ...

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The NYT provides a good look at the situation in India in September where cases are over 4.5 million, the world's second largest after U.S. During the lockdown in April and May India had successfully stemmed the coronavirus. After reopening in June a lot has changed as can be seen in this look at the steep curve in June, July, August and September. Cases are now at the rate of 95,000 daily and deaths at 1172 daily as of September 9. The deaths are up 16% and cases up 29% over 2 weeks. Maps show the situation in the states with Maharashtra, Andhra, Tamilnadu, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh showing the highest cases. Maharashtra has about 1 million cases and the two states in the south east Andhra and Tamilnadu have about 1 million combined with Uttar Pradesh at about 250,000 cases. Delhi has about 200,000 cases. So that about half of the 4.5 million cases are in three states in the southeast and the western state where Mumbai (Bombay) is located. The increase was seen after increased testing from 200,000 a day to 1 million a day by the end of August, a steep jump being seen in late August and September. At the end of July the coronavirus recovery rate of 70% in India and 90% in Delhi were the favorable signs, until things changed in August with increased testing and the spread to rural areas. India is doing over 1 million tests daily. On September 3, 1.1 million people were tested, taking the total to 45 million tested throughout India.  As in Europe and America the reopening which is essential for the economy and jobs has resulted in a big jump in cases. The laws for lockdown were carefully obeyed without many of the problems seen in America and Europe, the early complete lockdown was implemented with success, and Indian pharmaceutical companies are some of the largest in the world giving the public wide access to essential medicines and drugs. The postal service has functioned remarkably well during the lockdown for delivery of essentials throughout the country, and earlier action to establish bank accounts for each and every individual in the country, has enabled rural Indians to get through this most difficult period. This has given the government some breathing room as it faces the cases from reopening in a vast country of 1380 million people.   ...

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Working part-time during retirement years is important for health- staying active, using ones mind and brain, social engagement, and getting satisfaction in the workplace. A Study in 2017 by the Rand Corporation finds about 40% of workers over 65 who had previously retired back to the workplace. People are lengthening careers, and returning to work not just for financial reasons. Many of these people are looking for ways to remain active after realizing that staying active was important and if this could be combined with having extra time off in part time jobs for other hobbies and interests- this would better fit today's lifestyle and choices with people living longer and having more productive lives than ever before. A recent Pew Research analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the proportion of people over age 65 who are employed part time or full time has gone up in 2016 from about 13% to 19% with about half these people working full time. This trend to work following retirement has a word for it- people call it "unretirement." Where work is less taxing as for graduates and people with higher education this is happening more.  From a health perspective this can be important, as people can become more reclusive and more internal looking, less socially engaged as they retire without even realizing it. Some level of social engagement is planned by people retiring, and many retirees do volunteer work, yet this may not be enough. For those people who retired early because of burnout in the workplace, strains with other workers, poor culture in the workplace, the retirement for a few years after 60 can serve as a way to replenish one's resources, recover and resume working again in a place that is better suited for them. The restorative break can then serve as a way to get back to the workplace in a positive way. Work that is meaningful, offering opportunities for contributing one's skills, adds a new dimension to people's lives, and is also a contributor to living healthy lives, at a time when people live longer. Retirement at 65 may not make sense in this new environment, opportunities for part-time work bring the knowledge and skills of experienced people to the workplace and offer a win-win solution for both. More needs to be done to create these opportunities in a planned and organized way in business and government, in all workplaces. ...

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Paul Ryan brings an inclusive stye to his job as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. He has shown a sharply different approach to his predecessor Boehner who preferred to keep matters close to himself and his inner circle. Ryan has put drafting legislation into the hands of members of the House, organized meetings where moderate Republicans get to meet conservative Republicans so they can agree on common goals, shared information with Republican members on meetings with Democrats, and communicated with the media at frequent intervals to keep the public informed. The approach is welcomed by Republican members of the House after the divisions and disagreements under Boehner.

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A survey of 414 National Association of Business Economics (NABE) economists shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson with 15%, overtaking Trump at 14% on who would best manage the economy. On protectionist views only 9% support this. 15% said they have no opinion and 55% said Hillary Clinton would do the best job of managing the economy. About 62% say the election uncertainty is holding back growth. Some aspects of Hillary Clinton's economic plan are the $275 billion infrastructure investment over 10 years, taking action against companies that ship jobs overseas, a capital gains tax paln that encourages long term investments, supporting $15 minimum wage, making upward mobility a top priority, providing government financed access to public colleges for working class and lower income groups. Donald Trump's plan has suffered form lack of specifics, shifting comments, lack of careful study, and excessive use of slogans. Both candidates oppose trade agreements that shift jobs overseas. Trump's plan also suffers from lack of credibility overseas as this is important in a global business structure, with fears of protectionism increasing. and reminding people of the protectionism under Smoot-Hawley that increased the damage from the depression of the thirties. ...

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Krugman looks at the economies of indusrialized countries in 2014-2015. He points to the errors made by the Riksbank in Sweden to increase interest rates prematurely when a recovery was not on firm ground, ignoring the advice of deputy governor Lars Svensson. Sweden now faces the prospect of little growth and deflationary tendencies. He compares the decision of the ECB to raise rates in 2011 with Japan's decision to prematurely raise rates. The austerity policies in the EU driven by Germany and the lack of political consensus in the U.S., are faulted for making the situation worse when compared to Japan's poor handling of the situation. He says fiscal policy did not do enough in Japan to create growth, in the EU he says austerity policies were actually destructive of growth.

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David Segal takes a detailed look inside Apple's retail stores in the U.S. and talks with employees at different stores to find out what its like working as an hourly employee at an Apple store. World wide Apple's 327 global stores sold $16 billion in Apple products. Per employee the sales are about $473,000, but at an hourly rate of about $12 the average employee makes about $25,000 per year. After recent wage raises this could be up to about $36,000. The National Retail Federation says electronics stores have about an average of $206,000 in sales per employee. Contrary to what most people may think most of Apple's employees are not engineers and other professionals, about 30,000 of the 43,000 Apple employees in the U.S. work as hourly employees in the retail stores. Most are young people in the early 20's, single, with health insurance provided by Apple not costing as much for that age group. There is no career path and most leave after a couple of years. Because of the Apple mystique and the drive to create new user friendly products there are many young people looking for this kind of temporary work, especially now with high unemployment. ...

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Loukas Tsoukalis, professor of European Integration at the University of Athens and the president of the Hellenic Foundation of European and Foreign Policy, provides a view of the debt crisis from inside Greece. A default on Greece's debt of $500 billion would seriously affect other European countries and also affect the U.S. Tsoukalis says a national unity government is needed to take the bold steps that are needed to privatize state assets, cut public sector jobs and increase tax collection. Growth is critical, as an austerity program that fails to do this will fail to pull Greece out of the debt crisis. He calls for agreement on the question of who should bear how much of the cost for the mistakes of the past, taxpayers and private creditors. Discussions on this question are being undertaken by governments and private creditors as the crisis enters a new and dangerous phase. And for the countries involved in this crisis - Ireland, Portugal, Spain - there is the question of what will happen after two decades of European integration, whether these achievements will be undermined by excessive borrowing, consumption and poor financial management....

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11 Pacific Rim nations form the Trans-Pacific Partnership in 2018. The Obama administration supported the trade pact alienating supporters in its union base particularly in the midwestern states. Mr. Trump opposed the TPP in his election campaign and made it a significant issue for swing voters in midwestern states after job losses in the auto industry. With the opposition of president Trump the U.S. decided to withdraw from TPP.  The 11 nations agreeing to join a revised agreement are Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. So far six countries have formally approved the deal, Australia, Canada, Mexico, Singapore, New Zealand and Japan, setting the stage for two rounds of tariff reductions starting December 30, 2018. Agricultural products duties will be duty free within 3 to 7 years including for Japan and Mexico. Australia, New Zealand, Canada are major agricultural exporters. Japan supported the deal as a way to counter China's influence in the region. In the U.S. the gains would be in intellectual property rights but losses for workers in the auto and manufacturing industries, a point Mr. Trump recognized in his election campaign as he campaigned in the midwestern states. Mr. Obama pursued TPP over objections of workers organizations and unions including auto workers union, with his advisors suggesting this as a way to counter China's influence in the region. By 2018 the Democratic party support base fractured on this as one of the major issues.   ...

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There are about 2.4 million workers on American farms. 44% of them are undocumented workers says the Department of Labor.  They do jobs such as picking the fruits and vegetables that are part of the food supply. Deporting them all will increase prices of farm products as harvesting fruits and vegetables will be difficult. During the Eisenhower administration in 1953 deportation plan large growers in California and New Mexico used seasonal agricultural labor from Mexico, and the nation's food supply of vegetables and fruits depended on these workers. These companies lobbied hard for ways to keep these workers. On the other side were smaller farm owners who used fewer migrant workers. The complication this time 2024 is that unlike in 1953 under Eisenhower mass deportation when the border was otherwise peaceful, in 2024 the US has faced a decade unprecedented in its history of flows of fentanyl and drugs across the southern border. The deportation is about migrants who are not easily integrated culturally into the US, about the dangers of illegal entry in such large numbers that it disturbs the quiet life of the small towns and cities in the US. The US needs immigrants but in a planned way with legal entry, and no flows of drugs across the Border, that protects the American people and serves America's interests.    ...

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Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

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With China's automobile market declining for the fifth month in a row, and trade tensions rising, it now appears that carmakers such as Ford expanded too quickly in the Chinese market. Ford, Peugeot, and Hyundai appear to have poorly times their expansion in China, expanding at the tail end of the Chinese boom just ahead of the new Trump administration's efforts to challenge China's lopsided trade balance.  It has become so bad that this report shows workers at a Peugeot factory in China spending their days washing floors and attending Communist political study sessions at work. At a Ford plant workers shifts are reduced to a couple of days a month. Sales grew 3% in 2017 and declined 2% in the first 11 months of 2018, after increases of 14% in previous years taking the market to 28 million in a dizzying ride as it surpassed the U.S. sales of 17.5 million. Overcapacity is a problem in China with the aggressive expansion. There is capacity to make 43 million cars, but will produce 29 million in 2018, according to PwC, consulting firm. Ford meanwhile put in a new plant in Harbin in 2017, expanding its capacity to 1.6 million a year, but sales peaked at 1.27 million in 2016, and are down 6% in 2017, and 34% in 2018 to about 700,000. While there are no layoffs some workers are making only $220 monthly, forcing them to take second jobs as cab drivers or couriers. Suzuki decided to quit in 2018 exiting China entirely just so it would not pile up losses in what is now a market that is way overblown from the boom years. Electric vehicle production in the pipeline of about 7.5 million vehicles will compound this problem further with 32 new plants planned by 26 firms.   ...

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The migration of Miexcans to the US, or Keralites to the Gulf states, are other ways in which the impacts of this recession are felt across countries. This is passed on through lower remittances to the home country from its workers overseas and in the people returning to their home country unemployed. Putting aside national borders its seen in the way huge migrations of workers from rural areas moving to the coastal areas of China is being reversed as export industries on the coast are collapsing. In that case there are no remitttances but the effects are just as severe as these people are unemployed. And in parts of rural China where there is a severe drought the rural economies and the farming areas are suffering from poor agricultural production. Kerala, a coastal state in southern India, is a state heavily dependent on the Gulf economies for jobs and remittances. The Keral Manpower Exporters Association says that about 500,000 workers from Kerala will be forced to return from the Gulf in a few months. Kerala contributes about half of the 5 million Indians working in the Gulf economies. The estimated $6 billion that these workers send to Kerala ia about a fourth of the state's economy and twice its government budget. Skilled workers doing jobs as carpenters, plumbers, painters and administrative staff working in the construction boom in the Gulg especially Dubai, are likely to remain unemployed. ...