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The New York Times reports that comments from Obama administration officials describe an alarming loss of trust and confidence between China and the USA over the last two years. David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy program at George Washington University, says the administration had hoped to work with China on major challenges like climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and a new global economic order. China, he says, has failed to step up and play that role. He describes the Chinese as responding as an increasingly narrow-minded, self-interested truculent, hyper-nationalist, and powerful country. Jeffrey Baker, a key China policy adviser in the White House, says China's responses reflected a sense in Beijing that China was a rising power and the USA a declining power, especially after the strong rebound of the Chinese economy after the 2008 crisis. The administration is determined to counteract that impression. Other factors complicate things. China is facing a transition to a new leadership in the next year. There are differences within the Chinese Communist party leadership ranks about the direction China should take. Trade and currency issues have come to the point where American public opinion is shifting greatly, with educated professionals changing their views on trade and currency matters. See the recent WSJ/NBC September 2010 poll on world trade, reported by Murray and Belkin in WSJ, Oct 2, 2010. The Obama administration cannot ignore the deep concerns of the American people on these issues. The House overwhelmingly voted in September to threaten China with tariffs on its exports if the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not allowed to appreciate significantly enough (experts estimate that it is overvalued by 20%). It is not clear whether the Administration's rhetoric on this issue is to assuage public opinion in a business as usual manner, or expected to achieve substantative results to rebalance world trade. The G-20 summit in S. Korea leaves this change for well into the future- China with current account surplus of 5.8% of GDP in 2009 is expected to lower this to 4% by 2015. With the high jobless rate in the US and the large and rising current account deficit, the United States may have reached a juncture where this cannot be put off well into the future years. Other issues, the different foreign policy objectives, and differing perceptions of China and the US of each other, the relationship with US allies in the region, may create additional tensions. These tensions may be navigated by governments of both countries, but the shift in American public opinion on trade, currency and jobs issues will require tangible and real change. As trade tensions will only increase in the next two years with the lack of fiscal stimulus on the jobs front, and no significant change in jobs expected from the Fed's purchase af additional Treasury debt, and a sense that the mutual benefit in the trade relationship with China has been lost to America's serious detriment. China's position may be perceived as stronger than it really is from the faster rebound from the 2008 crisis, and may in reality not be as Jeffrey Baker sees it. As David Barboza has reported in the New York Times, and experts have pointed out, the huge amount of lending encouraged by the government has accentuated weaknesses in the Chinese economy. A significant amount has gone into real estate speculation and will only increase the bad loans on the books of China's banks. This happens at the very time that growth is expected to slow down and make it harder to absorb the bad loans, as was done in the past. ...

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Landler and Haberman provide a chronological summary of the events leading up to the speech by president Trump on August 21,2017 for continuing the war in Afghanistan with troop increases. Initially Trump followed his instincts and questioned his generals Mattis and McMaster, who have experience with the war in Afghanistan. McMaster prepared the plan. Tillerson, Secretary of State, called for a civilian component for the State Department in the military's plan. The options included using U.S. troops, covert CIA operation, and using mercenaries. The key factor- learning from the experience of the Iraq withdrawal of 2011 andnot  letting things get out of control as happened in Iraq and Syria after 2011 with rise of Islamic State and intervention by Iran and Russia, destabilization of the European Union through accelerated refugee flows. In the end the costs were too significant to let a vacuum develop and the U.S. president gave an honest reflection in his televised speech which was exceptional in its candour and willingness to lay the facts out. Trump's own instincts which he has historically followed would be set aside in this case because of the evidence the generals had given, supported by vice president Pence and key members of the Republican party. The president known for impulsive behaviour could be described as having gone through a period of reflection with the key military officers on what it was all about. In the end the decision to use U.S. troops to control the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan was taken to prevent a vacuum from developing. ...

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In a speech to 3000 party officials Xi Jinping says it is the "central and united leadership of the party that made possible this historic transition." He was speaking at the 40th anniversary of the Deng reforms to open up China's economy. He said China was right to have "lofty aspirations." Yet he said China "would not sacrifice the interests of other countries," while preserving its own interests. The speech comes as China is trying to find a way out of the trade tensions with the U.S. through negotiations. The U.S. sees China in the same way that it saw Japan's rise as an industrial power in the 1980's. and seeks to preserve U.S. economic strength and balanced trade relations that give no unfair advantages to Asian competitors. The U.S. negotiating team is led by the same negotiator who led the team that negotiated for the Reagan administration with Japan-Robert Lighthizer.

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Spotify acquires podcasting firms to broaden its appeal and acquire nonmusic content including listening time on radio. Spotify thinks it can bring to nonmusic content podcasts what it has done for music by bringing better curation, customization and recommendation, while developing tools and collecting data for podcasters. Talk enhances the experience of listening to music, says Spotify CEO Daniel EK.  Spotify aims to take some of the two hours people listen to radio globally and make money off of it. Ek says video is a bout $1 trillion market, and music plus radio $100 billion, but he questions whether our eyes are worth 10 times as much as our ears." Adding more monetization opportunities is key. Spotify says it has seen that podcasts command an engaged audience- people who see podcasts spend twice as much time using the service, and tend to stream more live music. They are less likely to cancel subscriptions.  Spotify has 206 million users and 96 million subscribers. Average revenue per user is 4.89 euros as many of Spotify's users come in through family plans and in international markets with lower pricing power. ...

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Cheng provides the basics of cloud computing and how best to use cloud services.

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U.S. GDP growth was revised to show 3% growth in the second quarter of 2017. The GDP growth estimate from the Federal Reserve in June is for full year GDP growth of 2.2% in 2017, 2.1% in 2018, and 1.9% in 2019. Experts say it is hard to achieve full year GDP growth of 3% because the labor force would have to be much larger, grow faster and productivity would have to be much higher. 

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Housing construction makes up a fourth of China's economy. Chinese government is leery of the huge buildup of debt at housing developer companies in China. Banks are involved with their loans to housing developer companies. Some of these bank loans are nonperforming and this percentage of bad debt is growing. It was always a sense of someday this would stop working. That someday may be today. Efforts are being made to tighten controls on these companies and their way of doing business- raising cash from presold apartments from millions of householders who have accumulated their savings for a speculative investment in a second or third apartment or fulfilling a dream of first home ownership. For two decades it worked as the Chinese economy with the aid of US and European Union transfer of technology and capital grew rapidly. With the US and European Union changing policies and building new supply chains in the competition with China, and China entering the period of a mature economy with less room for growth as Japan did in the 1990's, this buildup of debt  has ominous overtones. Chinese government is making an effort to regulate the housing sector to reduce any potential damage to the economy. The result could be a repeat of the way the Japanese economy after growing rapidly in the period 1960 -1985 slowed rapidly after 1987. ...

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Spain has so far in Sept. 2011 consolidated 45 cajas savings banks into 17. Some of the assets were sold to Spain's commercial banks. In July the central bank seized Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo, which had failed the stress tests. This Journal editorial says the Bank of Spain and the Spanish government approach is too slow to install new management, recapitalize the banks if possible and privatize the assets. Attention also needs to be given to minimizing taxpayer losses. The sweeping guarantees on the caja's losses , and 2.8 billion euro credit line to buyers of Caja del Mediterraneo does not look like privatization, because it simply hands private buyers the gains, with the government taking on the risks and the losses.

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The Economist describes the fraud in the election and the odious group of warlords and crooks that Karzai has pulled together to get support for this election. If they get as reward positions in the ministries then "the war is over" according to one diplomat. And without acredible government the chances are poor for any"good outcomes." Eide, the UN diplomat in the country says ultimately this will be decided not by governments but by people sitting at thier kitchen tables making up their mind as the follow the information in the media. And the President has only 37% of Democrats with him who want to see more troops in Afghanistan in a recent poll.

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Starter interrupt devices have been installed by U.S. auto loan lenders on about 2 million vehicles, and feeding the boom for making subprime loans by reducing the delinquency rate. Its a new virtual repo system unlike anything known before, described in this exceptional piece by Corkery and Silver-Greenberg, with implications that reach beyond borrowers to the safety of the U.S. financial system. It means the lenders have a false incentive to reach deeper into the pool of subprime borrowers with lower and lower credit ratings, with the securities marketed using these loans spread out over the entire financial system waiting for another implosion like the one in 2008. Consider that the subprime auto loans have reached 27% of total loans in 2013, and $145 billion of subprime auto loans were made in just the first quarter of 2014. At some point this could reach the 36% in 2006 before the implosion in subprime securities of 2008, destabilizing the U.S. and global financial system. Are the regulators again asleep at the job? ...

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PM Modi opens the new campus of an ancient university named Nalanda University which is dated from the 5th century AD to 12th century AD in Buddhist India. Nalanda means the gift of knowledge, that is also a theme for Lyrarc.com as an open site for all as a gift of knowledge. Near this campus is the Maha Vihara ancient Buddhist temple which has been restored after excavation from ruins. Modi is shown on the site of the ancient Buddhist temple in its current renovated state. Around Nalanda University are the other places of the Buddha- Kushinagar where the Buddha spent his last years, and Bodh Gaya where he attained enlightenment under a Bodhi tree in the 5th century BC. From here by the 5th century AD Buddhism spread to China, Korea, Vietnam and Japan, through Bodhidharma Indian prince who brought Buddhism to China.

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An account of ECB chairman Mario Draghi's efforts to overcome the opposition of the Bundesbank to unlimited bond purchases by the ECB of sovereign bonds to reduce borrowing rates of Italy and Spain. Draghi argued that it was within the mandate of the ECB because of irrational fears in bond markets that were creating excessive rates for bond yields and not normal behaviour of capital markets, and therefore within the ECB's mandate to maintain financial stability and protect the euro currency. This was supported by finance minister Schauble and German chancellor Merkel over opposition of the Bundesbank and German media on July 23, 2012, when Draghi said of his determination to protect Spain and Italy from excessive yields and of the ECB action: "believe me it will be enough."

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How Hyundai has hired a leading marketer with a record of helping the likes of VW and Apple build their brand image. Hyundai inventory is building up and its falling way short of selling 700,000 cars in North America by 2010, it sold 455,000 cars last year. Wilhite had earned a reputation by being Apple Computer s topmarketer and has also headed Nissan's global marketing. Before that he helped give VW a revival in the US market in the 1990's. He sees the need for "a big idea" to get Hyundai off the ground. A new ad agency compared Hyundai's predicament with Galileo's persecution for presenting his theory about the earth revolving around the sun.The problem- even though J. D. Powers shows Hyundai as having surpassed Toyota in Initial Quality Study, the brand had not registered with car buyers. And in 2007 unsold Sonata cars were piling up on football field sized lots behind the Birmingham, Alabama plant of Hyundai. Sales fell 30% in 1st quarter 2007 in the US. market and matched Chrysler's situation of building cars without the buyers....

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The U.S. government sold its last remaining shares in auto company GM booking a loss of $10.5 billion- a recovery of $39 billion dollars of the $49.5 billon dollars given to GM. The Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., points out that the cost of bailing out GM and Chrysler was about $13.7 billion. The benefits were 1.2 million jobs protected in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis. It also preserved $39.4 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections in 2009 and 2010. The Treasury Department estimate of the cost is about $15 billon, including money invested in GM's former finance arm Ally Financial Inc. President Obama says the effort helped create 372,000 new jobs in five years. Treasury Secretary Lew summed it up by saying "it helped stabilize the auto industry and prevent another Great Depression." Other intangible but larger benefits in the long run were building up the companies anew with new pay structures the auto companies could support in a globalized economy, bringing in new management and discarding of old mindsets and culture, new relationships with unions and customers, committment to achieving fuel efficiency targets with new technologies in cooperation with the U.S. government guidelines, and renewed confidence of millions of employees in the U.S. auto sector. It is also the one area in which the Obama administration scores a clear win, and in which president Obama took the greatest interest as senator. That the public did not fully appreciate the significance of the step is more a reflecion of public frustration with how the companies were run by the old management, and a continual reminder of the importance of good management for the U.S. industry and economy....

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DJT executive orders include one ending birthright citizenship. “It was really meant for children of slaves." DJT is referring to the 14th Amendment that was passed in 1868 by Congress and ratified by 1868 by the states. It came after the Civil War and Emancipation of slaves and was intended without any doubt for one and only one purpose to make slaves citizens of the United States Look at Section 4 of the 14th Amendment which says the United States will not allow any claim for the loss of any slave. "But neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void. The only SC decision in US vs Wong Kim that gave citizenship in 1898 to Wong Kim was not intended to go beyond that particular case, it was only meant to make an exception to the Chinese Exclusion Act  of 1882 after which till 1960 (JFK's election) Chinese immigration to the US was stopped, and the same for all Asians. Only immigrant labor allowed in was from Mexico for agriculture till 1960. And in 1954 Operation Wetback wwas conducted by Eisenhower to return about 1 million illegal immigrants to Mexico. DJT says- “It was not meant for everyone to come into our country by airplane, or charging across the borders from all over the world and think they’re going to become citizens.” The millions that came illegally across land border  and the flow of drugs is a new situation that Congress and the Supreme Court are only facing since 2014 a period in which wars in Afghanistan and Iraq took time and resources away from problems at home. ...

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Even though E-Bay executive Meg Whitman has outspent Jerry Brown by $130 million, much of it her own money, she trails Brown by 8 percentage points in an Oct 20 survey by nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. That survey showed Brown leading 44% to 36%. She had a hard line stance on illegal immigration in her ads for the primaries, which changed later in the campaign to attract Latino voters. Her campaign crafted by consultants focussed on three themes- cut government spending, create jobs, and fix education. Brown is a former Governor of the state and current attorney general. Experts attribute the lagging Whitman campaign to voters leery of 2 kinds of politicians- the first is the career politician and the second is longtime corporate executives. In other polls Senator Barbara Boxer is leading Ms Fiorina, former HP executive, 43% to 38%. Because of last minute surges in the polls, a lead of 8 points or more is considered necessary for the governor's campaign, for a candidate to win. Another factor is that Governor Schwarznegger came in with no political experience, and was beset by the state's fiscal troubles, with his poll ratings now at 28%....

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The two incidents in July 2016 of shootings of police officers on July 7 with five killed in Dallas, and July 17 with 3 killed, have led to deep anguish among the 900,000 state and local law enforcement officers in the U.S. Videos showing shootings of African-American young men have led to protests in cities, and attacks by persons on the fringe. Police officers say they are now worried about their safety because of the ambushes in Dallas and Baton Rouge, and are taking extra precautions.

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The election in Catalonia leaves the region as divided as before. The pro independence parties won 47.5% of the vote and the parties opposed to independence won 43.5% of the vote, so that only 4 percentage points separates the pro and anti independence parties. By seats in the Catalan parliament the vote showed pro independence parties with 70 seats, a loss of 2 seats from the previous parliament. The party of Mr. Puigdemont won most votes by a small margin within the pro- independence parties. On the other side the Ciudadanos party which is strongly opposed to independence won about 25% of the vote. About 80% of 5.3 million voters cast ballots. Prime minister Rajoy hoped for a better result to preserve Spanish unity. Most Spaniards support a unified Spain. Pro union Spaniards are strongly opposed because they see the efforts of Mr Puigdemont for independence coming at a time when Spain was just recovering from a deep recession with millions unemployed. This is affecting the economy of Barcelona and the Catalan region. Unemployment is higher and tourist flow has slowed. Because the pro independence parties are themselves divided on how to proceed, and with the anti independence parties also winning a significant share of the vote, the negotiations between the Catalan regional government and Madrid will be protracted. ...

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David Brooks makes the case for reconciliation and renewal based on making room for the African American narrative. He cites thoughts of a moral order shared by Abraham Lincoln as he struggled with the same issues.

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More answers on more questions by readers, this time from the Guardian.

How does Britain get out of this mess- finding a deal acceptable to all, the Tories right wing, Labour party, and the EU, which isn't likely any time soon. Extending Article 50 beyond March 29, only adds a few months.

Is the UK going insane asked one reader. The answer from the Guardian- yes.

 

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The former interim Speaker Rep. Patrick McHenry, Republican North Carolina, tells a University of Chicago student audience that one can hold off a majority Congressmen only for so long, that there could be a two third majority in the House favoring the Ukraine aid. That bill for $61 billion in Ukraine aid passed the US Senate 70-30 with 22 Republican Senators supporting it but is blocked for 2 weeks by Speaker Mike Johnson for a House vote. Former Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin tell a Washington Post event that House Speaker Mike Johnson has to make up his mind to be decisive and take action that get things done. Ryan served as vice presidential nominee and became Speaker in October 2015 eight years before Mike Johnson in a similar situation where his job depended on different factions. Mike Johnson's view is that he wants to be seen as listening to all members to kind of decentralizing things. Yet as more experienced members of Congress say the only way to get things done is for the Speaker to take action on his own accord and let the situation rest there having done his best. This situation is happening today in the House as about half of all Congressmen in the House of Representatives have not served in Congress before January 2019, says The Washington Post. ...

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The European Union goes forward with $39 billion for Ukraine aid. The aid is backed by interest from the $300 billion in Russian assets in Europe frozen when war began. Another $15-20 billon is expected from the US when legal questions about frozen Russian assets are resolved- the US asking for a 36 month review of sanctions to replace 6 months in place in 2024. The European Union offices in Brussels have done a poor job of communicating how the EU is  aiding Ukraine with its own resources. Lyrarc.com had to point out that Ukraine aid from EU was about twice that of the US at about $200 billion compared to about $95 billion for the US. Former president Trump stated that this was just the opposite the US spending twice what the US was spending. Media in today's world means little or nothing because it operates highly fragmented and organically outside the control of any particular source online, television or print. And established sources apart from bias are spread so thin many important matters for the betterment of people's lives or giving a true picture from which to make observations, are left to wither or distort. The highly formal  corporate environments of the EU are impervious to the outside so that institutions such as the ECB, European Union headquarters are out of touch with the people worldwide.  ...

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Moritz Kramer, a managing director at S&P, says Spain, Italy, France and Portugal cannot depend on austerity measures and cuts in spending alone to resolve the eurozone crisis. This is only one aspect of the problem facing the countries in southern Europe. The major reason for the problem is the lack of competitiveness in their economies. Nobel winner Stiglitz also points this out and adds that its important to note that the human and natural resources of Europe are the same and the potential just as good today as before the eurozone financial crisis. He says southern Europe has failed to utilize its human and capital resources and improve its technologies in ways that would make it more competitive with Asian countries. Experts point to the decade it took Germany to address problems created by inflexible labor markets, wage competitiveness, and investments in technology and human resources to get to where it is today.

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Both sides have taken a pause in negotiations yet they are getting closer. There is also the conversation that we are not aware of that is taking place between McCarthy/McConnell and Biden about G7 leaders asking Biden on the debt talks. McCarthy will not want to affect the Ukraine counter offensive with all the talk about a debt default impacting the credibility of the US. McCarthy also could pass an agreement through the House with Democrats support with a small faction of Republicans not supporting him if push comes to shove and matters reach a critical point. By negotiating in good faith Biden is surely doing the right thing. The important thing is to let moderate Republicans have an opportunity to support him in the task of Renewal of America. The bigger task is 2024 which Biden has his eyes on, because this is how America will be made or unmade with the right choices and the right priorities. And Biden needs independents and Republicans who might consider supporting him to get things done for America's Renewal. House Speaker McCarthy's Republicans now support keeping spending at $1.65 trillion the 2023 levels. The Biden administration would consider a program of small cuts- no deep cuts. And only for 2 years. On work requirements for government aid to the poor and vulnerable Biden says he supported work requirements when he was a Senator in the US Congress. He outright excludes any work requirements for health benefits. Biden understands that in an economy with jobs going unfilled in construction and hospitality industries, and in child care and teaching, nursing, with higher minimum wages, people looking for work could find work to make a decent or tolerable living.   ...

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We show here discussion of the the opinion of Samuel Alito Jr who made it an issue of state sovereignty so that Congress could but the federal government could not ban states from approving sports gambling. Yet in today's cost of living crisis with 4 out of 10 Americans lacking enough savings for a medical emergency, it shows that how even the Supreme Court lacks an understanding of the economic issues facing the Nation. Add to this that it made no difference whether they were liberal or conservative as Justice Breyer supported Justice Samuel Alito. The NCAA and NBA, most sports organizations, say the 1972 ban was needed for the integrity of sports. Alito in his opinion mentioned but did not give weight to the problems the SC was creating of "hook the young on sports gambling, encourage people of modest means to squander their savings, and corrupt professional and college sports." In calling the ban in his opinion "a more direct affront to state sovereignty is not easy to imagine," Justice Alito showed, and the 7-2 majority showed how little it cared about the effects on workers and their families of sports gambling. At a time of cost of living crisis and soon after the pandemic and people still struggling the Justices as in their decision on student debt relief have shown how little they understand the American people and the basic of freedoms. What Franklin Roosevelt called in 1935 State of the Union " the right to obtain for him and his a proper security, a reasonable leisure, and a decent living throughout life" that today is threatened from so many quarters. ...