LyrArc Article Gist
The shift from non-conventional polluting single cylinder engine contraptions used by poorer Chinese called "Inkfish" to conventional fuel efficient engines will reduce oil consumption in China even as more cars are on the road. This explains the paradox of Chinese vehicle sales being up by 77% year over year in the first quarter of 2010, and still gasoline demand went up by only 3%. Kack Perkowski, founder of Chinese auto-parts manufacturer Asimco Technologies, says the shift from the low tech "inkfish" type vehicles to fuel efficient small cars popular with the Chinese and encouraged by government policies to reduce oil consumption is a big factor in this development. Perkowski says 50 million engines are manufactured in China each year and if you subtract the 13.6 million cars, trucks and buses sold in China last year, another 36 million low tech highly fuel inefficient engines including "inkfish" engines were sold. China's car buyers are very price conscious and prefer smaller cars. Smaller cars are also well suited to the crowded roads in the coastal cities. And the Chinese government wants to keep oil consumption down so it is pushing buyers in the direction of smaller engines with tax breaks. The Chinese governmet is expected to announce subsidies for plug-in hybrids worth about one third of the sticker price. The motives are environmental and energy security related, but also have the intent of enabling China's car manufacturers to gain experience and leadership in newer electric car technologies. Bottom line: some experts including Deutsche Bank's Sankey view China's oil demand growing much slower, at about 2.6% a year over the next 15 years. This would mean oil demand tapering off at 13-14 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, much higher than the 9.1 million bpd in 2010, but growth curbed by fuel efficient engines and increasing fuel efficency of the Chinese vehicle population....

LyrArc Article Gist
The feud between New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, and the head of the state teacher's union, Ms. Keshishian. Governor Christie called the state legislature into an emergency session and pushed through a 2% cap on annual increases in property taxes, which have risen 70% over the last decade in New Jersey. The issue is whether the extent of spending on education is sustainable in New Jersey. New Jersey's median property tax is the highest in the nation, at $6,579. By comparison New York is $3,755 and Illinois $3,507. New Jersey residents pay an average of 11.8% for property taxes. Both sides have engaged in strong rhetoric and the teachers union has attacked the Governor in television ads. Governor Christie refused to discuss issues with Keshishian, and ended a meeting in his office, with "Not with you. I don't." The teachers argues that New Jersey schools provides some of the best schooling in the nation- the state's high school graduation is 82%, and it ranks among the top 5 states in key subject areas, according to the Education Law Center in Newark. Its graduation center for black males is 69%. New Jersey also has a heavily unionized public sector with relatively high wages for public workers of all kinds, including teachers. This and a state supreme court decision mandating increased funding for schools in poor communities raises the cost per pupil to $17,794, the highest in the nation, after Washington D.C. New York is at $16,981. California, and Illinois spend $11,000. The average New Jersey teacher makes $61,277 a year, well above the U.S. average of $52,800, according to the National Education Association. Medical and other benefits add $19,140 according to the teacher's union. And the unsustainability goes back to issues such as unfunded liabilities for benefits and pensions in New Jersey. New Jersey's Treasurer estimates the unfunded liabilities relating to lifetime health benefits for current and retired teachers at $36.32 billion....

LyrArc Article Gist
Ostrower and Cameron point out that Dennis Muilenburg, the new CEO of Boeing, is first and foremost a engineer. He comes from a different background than former CEO Jim McNerney. McNerney graduated from Yale University, and followed a path of consulting with McKinsey, work at P&G, moved to General Electric where he worked under Jack Welch for many years, before the position at Boeing. This was a path for many CEO's at the time. As the U.S. returns back to its manufacturing and technological roots and with the manufacturing and technical problems at Boeing and Airbus, Muilenburg brings the right focus to meet future challenges. Muilenburg graduated from Iowa State University with a bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering, a master's degree in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Washington He joined Boeing as an engineering intern in 1985, and is at Boeing since 1985. Since Dec. 2013 Muilenburg was president and COO, leading Boeing's effort to use automation to cut costs of developing and building commercial jets. Before that job he headed Boeing Defense, Space and Security, where he is credited with improving the operating margin from 9% in 2009 to 10.8% in 2013. He cut costs and closed facilities as the division share of Boeing revenue declined from about 50% in 2009 to about 34% in 2014 following defense spending cuts, but did this while maintaining higher research spending to drive efficiency improvements, say analysts. At Boeing Muilenburg's first 14 years were spent designing jets and military systems, some for contracts such as the advanced fighter jet program which Boeing lost to Lockheed, before moving to Washington D.C. for a new unit selling air traffic management services. He says the move was a period of personal growth for him more than any other period in his career. Muilenburg enjoys cycling, and puts in about 120 miles per week around Chicago...

LyrArc Article Gist
Companies like P&G and Walmart in Mexico, and Lever Brothers and Cadbury in India, are taking developing markets seriously and going after the low price points for products; selling in areas away from the large cities. See the links to Nestle,P&G and Walmart. Cadbury is adding another element, by investing in the growing of cocoa in southern India, to have access to a cheaper supply to meet those low price points. Cadbury Dairy Milk Shots, are pea sized chocolate balls with a sugar shell to protect them from the heat. This product was launched this year. It sells for 2 rupees or 4 cents for a five gram packet. The low price makes it accessible to more people. For Cadbury emerging markets are crucial for new growth, and affordability a critical way to go after this market. Emerging markets account for 35% of Cadbury's sales and 60% of the growth. The potential is huge considering India's low per capita consumption of chocolate. Half of the people in India have never tasted chocolate in their life. And India's total chocolate consumption is $465 million compared to $4.89 billion in the UK. Growth has been at about 20% for the last 3 years. Cadbury controls over 70% of the chocolate market and 30% of the confectionery market in India, with combined sales of $338 million, according to AC Nielsen. Nestle is next with 25% of the chocolate market. To keep prices low the company is moving factories to lower cost locations and improving its supply chain. It has setup 20 nurseries in southern India, from where saplings are sent to nearby farms for cultivation. Cadbury provides the saplings, technical expertise, and advice on where to get free government assistance in fertilizers. This is called the Cadbury Cocoa Partnership and has planted 5 million saplings in India in 2008. Another 7.5 million saplings are planned for 2009, and already Cadbury imports only half of its cocoa needs. Local coca costs 30% less because of a 30% tariff on imports....

LyrArc Article Gist
The most important segment with future implications for growth is the young people segment, and here American companies are really weak. Of the "millenials" or people born between 1979 and 1985, those who consider a Ford when shoppng for a small car are only 7%. These are Ford's own numbers according to the Wall Street Journal. Ford and GM are moving their emphasis to small cars. Ford did this at the Los Angeles Auto Show with the new Fiesta arrriving in the market in early 2010, and GM will compete with the Honda Civic with its Chevy Cruze due in August in showrooms. To do this Ford and GM are remodeling their showrooms. To do this 3000 Chevy stores are taking on a new focus on small cars and 26,000 sales people are being retrained by end of 2009. Kurt Mcneil, Chevy's sales chief, says their emphasis is on giving a good response to online customers by having salespeople able to talk fluently about fuel efficiency and compare with Honda and Toyota. For Chevy the showroom remodeling involves having a greeter at the reception desk not a salesperson, this is who one first sees when walking into a dealership. The improvements costing $200,000 to $600,000 per location are being paid by dealers with GM offering financial incentives for the work. The way Ford is approaching it is to use social media like Facebook to a bigger extent. It will send a social media consultant to its largest 800 dealerships or one fourth of all stores to build an online infrastructure to connect to local buyers and offer online updates, videos, and games related to small cars. Ford, GM and Chrysler have only 21% of the small car market, according to Autodata, and Ford has only the aging Focus to offer today. In 10 months of 2009, 19% of 8.65 millon light vehicles sold were small cars up from 14% in 2006, while the percentages for SUV and pickups dropped 53% to 46%. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mexico's domestic car market is weak, most of the cars are manufactured for export. From 2000 to 2008 the domestic car market in Brazil grew by 80% to 2.67 million vehicles, and in Argentina by 79% to 610,713 vehicles. Sales went up in 2008 by 14% in Brazil and by 8% in Argentina. Whereas in Mexico domestic sales fell 6.8% during 2008 to 1.03 million vehicles. Sales for 2009 in the domestic market are expected to fall by 20%. And auto exports from Mexico fell dramatically in Jan-Feb 2009 dropping by 52% to 89,242 units over same period last year. Auto exports generate a $15 billion surplus for Mexico so there is concern about this sharp drop. Auto exports rose 3% in 2008 to 1.7 million units, and 79% of 2008 domestic production of 2.1 million units went to exports. One in 74 people were sold a car in Brazil in 2008, and 1 in 66 in Argentina, whereas in Mexico it is one in 107 people. And Mexico's minimum wage of 55 pesos is $3.85 per day, the lowest of the 3 countries. The low paying jobs and poor income distribution in Mexico is a reason for this. Under Nafta Mexico also allows the import of cars from the USA which are over 10 years old. Mexico imported 909,000 vehicles in 2009. To keep the Mexican auto industry from sinking the government is considering assistance to the domestic manufacturers, dealers, and car loan companies, a total of 9.5 billion pesos, as well as sales incentives for buyers. But domestic sales are relatively smaller and the market weak to make up for the huge loss in exports judging by the Jan-Feb 2009 numbers off 52%. A lot is at risk with the domestic car industry generating 24% of manufacturing exports, 16% of manufacturing, and with more than a million workers directly or indirectly associated with the industry. Already GM and VW have announced layoffs. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty 53% to 47%. Ireland joined the EU in 1973 and has gone during this period from the poorest country in the bloc to the second richest in per capita terms after Luxembourg. As the first attemp to get approval of an EU constitution for a closer political union was rejected by French and Dutch voters in 2005, the effort was modified to take out the EU flag and call it a treaty and not a constitution and to go the route of approval by parliaments in each country instead of elections. But Ireland's constitution required a referendum and now Ireland has rejected the treaty. The Irish generally have favored the EU so it will give more thought to those who favor closer political union about how to proceed from here. Opposition to it in Ireland was based on a fear that Irish taxes would have to be raised and make Ireland less attractive for investors, and fear that the EU's global free trade stance meant that cheap food imports would be forced on Ireland and hurt Irish agriculture, but the Lisbon treaty has little to do with taxes and farming. The Lisbon treaty calls for a EU President that is appointed and ceate a Foreign Minister who can speak for the EU and greater powers to legislate in areas like immigration. How will EU supporters proceed from here? One is to go for ratification by the Parliaments of the 26 other countries in the EU without risking a vote. Another is to work on a two speed Europe with core countries like Germany and France and Spain and Portugal and Italy forming a political union and countries like the UK and Netherlands taking a more trade and economic based union approach. Also subject of discussion will be how to get the message of European union across, what is it about, and what are the institutions for, according to one expert at Oxford University....

LyrArc Article Gist
Microsoft will make a $300 million investment in Barnes & Noble's Nook digital book and college text unit. Microsoft will get a 17.6% stake in a new subsidiary for thsi business that values it at $1.7 billion. A Nook app will be included for Windows 8. The investment is useful for Barnes & Noble as it had to invest aggressively in its digital book business, leading to a loss before interest, taxes and depreciation of $94 million for fiscal third quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
The International Energy Agency sees a shortfall of 12.5 million barrels a day when it compares the needed 37.5 million barrels a day by 2015 with the planned supply increases showing 25 million barrels a day. A lot depends on the assumptions and what the 37.5 million barrels a day is based on. Does it account for a slowdown in the world economy and a drive for fuel efficiency and conservation habits by 2015? How much of this is reflected in the numbers? And on the planned increases of 25 million barrels a day- does it account for increases that may be planned in 2009 and 2010 in response to prices above $150 a barrrel which is expected? The IEA has a team of 25 analysts working on the forecasts but it gets no cooperation from Saudi Arabia about its individual fields production, and Venezuela, Iran and China also keep their information a secret. This makes supply forecasting a difficult business. IEA uses IHS Inc a data provider, USA Geologic Survey, oil and service companies information and national petroleum councilds information....

LyrArc Article Gist
Sales of Ford's best sellig pickup truck F-150 fell 31% in May, compared to May 2007, and sales of SUV's and pickup trucks dropped 24%. Its sad that it took so long for the American car companies to phase down from the large vehicle business and shift resources in a big way to smaller cars.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford may be preparing for a bigger loss in 2008 than the $2.7 billion loss in 2007. Sales of the Expedition and Explorer and the F-150 truck have dropped significantly. These sales have dropped nearly 30% through May of this year over last year for Expedition and Explorer, and dropped 19% on the F-150 truck. One anlayst says Ford has $7-9 billion after all its other obligations as a cushion so the automaker is on thin ice. GM faces similar problems.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bill Ford answers some very pertinent and good questions with confidence and clarity in a meeting with Maria Bartiromo of CNBC and Business Week. His answers are direct and show his thinking today and throughout his difficult experience of the last few years struggling to establish his presence at Ford Motor and then struggling to get the right person to run the company. "It hurts us to see the employees of the company suffer," and this has made this experience at Ford have a personal impact as Ford traumatized over the layoffs of employees with many years of service. And he himself was not easily accepted in the prevailing culture of the time at Ford, and asked to drop his contacts with environmentalists when he joined the Board, which he says he told them he had no intention of doing. He knows his managers had foresight in borrowing a "ton of money" just before the credit crisis struck, and which will be a key to going through any further deterioration of the market in the next 2-3 years. Much clearer than any of the other manufacturers is Ford's new vision under, Bill Ford, Mullaly and Farley, with the finance guys in the background, of Ford as a car company and focused on smaller fuel efficient automobiles. And Bill Ford's vision and aspiration has a lot do with it, who he helped bring in and what he supported and pushed for in the old Ford culture helped Ford to grasp a vision of its future with clarity and purpose like a new beginning. Ford will continue to make trucks but it believes as Bill Ford does that the market will never go back to its old ways, that the absolute price of oil will have less to do with it than the psychology which will push for smaller more fuel efficient cars. And as he points out its European cars are" extremely well appointed and very, very succesful and extremely profitable"....

LyrArc Article Gist
The slowing growth in China is reducing growth and depreciating the currencies of iron ore producing countries Brazil and Australia. China makes 50% of the world's steel and imports 1.2 billion tons of iron ore traded annually. Australia exports 80% of its iron ore to China valued at $67 billion in 2013. Brazil sends 50% of production to China. For the first time in 15 years China's steel use declined 0.3% to 500 million tons in the Jan-Aug. 2014 period. The mining companies have invested heavily in ports and railroads for expanded production. BHP CEO Mackenzie says the strategy is to maximize production because reducing production increases costs on a unit basis. The result is a decline in price from $135 a ton at the beginning of 2014 to $69.80 on Nov. 28, 2014. Prices could decline to the $50 range in 2015, according to Citigroup analysts, because of an estimated iron ore surplus of 300 million tons by 2018. As China expands recycling of older cars and washing machines to produce steel this will reduce future iron ore demand in China. JP Morgan forecast for Australia reduces GDP growth to 2.8% from 3.3% for 2015, and Brazil reduced its forecast for 2015 to 0.9% from 1.8%....

LyrArc Article Gist
Nagourney and Dougherty of the NYT give this report on the housing crisis in California by 2017 with the median cost of a home skyrocketing to twice the figure for the U.S. This price is now $500,000. The result is longer commutes even for people with incomes over $150,000 a year, stretching to as much as 2 hours one way. It means people lacking housing stay in vans with improvised kitchens and other sleeping arrangements. Not enough homes are being built because of strict zoning and planning regulations that are kept in place by neighborhood groups, effectively excluding outsiders. Now its not just the coastal areas that are affected but the whole state. Governor Brown of California tried to pass a measure in 2016 that would push communities to build more affordable housing, and ran into opposition from local officials and environmentalists. Now the opinion in the state is changing with younger people denied a chance at decent housing at the forefront and some elected officials such as the Mayor of Los Angeles, Mr. Eric Garcetti. A new bill in the state legislature would make it harder for cities that are falling behind in building housing to lose the right for City Council to hold back on approval of new construction, effectively bypassing it. California's law capping property taxes after Proposition 13 was passed in 1978 has also held back construction. Other factors are the building of new offices for  companies in the tech boom around San Francisco without a corresponding effort to build new homes for these new office workers. California was slow to respond to housing needs for young people, with only 311,000 housing units built since 2006. ...