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How the little known Hong Kong startup KAiOS Technologies with its low cost operating system is bringing low cost access to basic smart phone features, making them affordable for the 3 billion people lacking smartphones because of the cost. Jio phones of Reliance Technologies started this affordability change by working with KAiOS to bring out its $20 Jio phone and building a high speed 4G network in India to provide low cost data to these users. Reliance turned things upside down by bringing to India the cheapest data on wireless phone use of any country in the world. KAiOS is now the third most important operating system for wireless phones after Android and Apple. This is now spreading to Brazil, Indonesia, and Africa. 

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France and Germany support the EU coronavirus rescue package of 750 billion euros with 500 billion euros in grants to struggling businesses. Four countries- Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Netherlands- which supported the austerity policies that hurt working families in Europe for a decade after the financial crisis of 2009, do not support grants and instead call for loans to be made. This time Germany has swung over to the French side and southern European countries such as Italy and Spain that suffered badly from the virus. Without solidarity in such a situation the EU concept becomes meaningless and Merkel says these countries that oppose common borrowing do not understand the gravity of the crisis facing Europe's economies after the virus. 

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Edouard Philippe resigns as prime minister as he begins a new phase for the 2022 presidential elections. His popularity increased to 50% for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic in France, exceeding Macron's 38% in June. Mr. Philippe won the race for New Havre in recent municipal elections in which Mr. Macron's party failed to win a single large city, making its future uncertain. The Ecology party recently split from Mr. Macron's party in parliament. In 3 years in office Mr. Philippe maintained his independence and did not join the Macron party. Mr. Philippe followed a conservative path in government. His replacement is Mr Castex, mayor of a small town Prades in southern France.

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The strange story of port authorites behaviour in Beirut for an incoming ship from Georgia on the Black Sea loaded with ammonium nitrate explosive materials- keeping the ship in port because it lacked the proper papers and because it was not fit to sail. If allowed to leave the ship would probably not caused an explosion in a congested port area. The mystery of the behaviour of port authorites extends to the next step where the port authorites actually unloaded the ship's explosives material to a port hangar warehousing area when there was no need to do so or no need to keep the ship in Beirut. waters as its actual destination was in Mozambique in the west coast of Africa.

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The word "elderly" is going out of common use, the CDC in the U.S. has crossed it out and uses the words 'over 60." Parents bristle as the term elderly takes on a new meaning in the days of coronavirus in March 2020. One of the baby boomers at age 64, who has completed 40 triathlons in last 7 years asks if she can really be called elderly. Parents bristle with texts and calls from children in the thirties to change travel plans, with most deciding to stay put at home. Yet as other reports show most younger people in their thirties and forties are also working from home with their kids around them.

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About half of American states went on lockdown including the largest New York and California, covering about 100 million people. Here is a state by state account of the measures taken by each state to limit movement outside the home to essential activity such as getting groceries from stores and medicine from pharmacies. In German states there is a fine of 2500 euros for violations and similar fines in other countries. Most American states have not resorted to specific fines for the lockdowns. Britain also has not specified a fine, but police enforcement will take place with possible fines and jail time for violations. Italy has a fine similar to Germany, with the public calling for stricter action. 

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This New Yorker has resilence in his roots in the Scottish Hebrides islands. No wonder he was able to take up the challenge of a US unable to extricate itself from  wars in the Middle East (Reagan, Bushes, Obama), and unfair trade with China, and an onslaught of unfavorable media attention. His name is DJT. According to the BBC in this story on Donald Trump's mother Mary Ann Mcleod, she was a regular churchgoer, well respected in the community, who visited her homeland in Scottish isle of Lewis, British Hebrides, frequently. Mary Ann McLeod is the youngest of 10 children of a Scottish family in the town of Tong in the Hebridean isle of Lewis in the North Sea, northwest of the Scotland mainland. Her father ran the local post office. The family was  relatively poor coming from Scottish people cleared of Highlanders during the Clearances and with fishing disasters in the family. Two hundred servicemen returning from the first world war to Tong lost their lives in a shipping disaster and the economy of the island was in poor shape. With no opportunities or future many immigrated to Canada. Mary Ann's sister Catherine immigrated to Canada and on a visit to Tong she took Mary back with her to New York in 1930. Mary worked as a nanny for a wealthy family in New York before meeting a socialite of German immigrants Fred Trump. Mary returned to Scotland in 1934 and by then she found a new life with Fred Trump whom she married. The couple lived in a wealthy area of Queens and Fred Trump ran a real estate business he had inherited with his mother. Donald Trump still has three cousins in Tong in the British Hebrides Scottish isles. His older sister Maryanne Trump Barry regularly visited Tong. Donald Trump visited Tong in 2008. Of this family a local who knows the cousins and the family John MacIver, a local councillor and friend of the cousins told BBC in 2017- "They are very nice, gentle people and I'm sure they don't want all the publicity that's around. I quite understand that they don't want to talk about it."   ...

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In Brazil's 2018 elections most candidates talk about shoring up crumbling infrastructure, and law and order. Yet no one talks about the budget crisis as there is no money left for doing this.  Shocking as this may sound after years of overspending and a recession, Brazil now uses borrowed money to pay pensions and salaries, and keep schools and hospitals open. Brazil's public spending exceeds revenue by about 7% of annual economic output. Taxes are already 40% of economic output, according to CIA's World Factbook website, making it hard to raise taxes.  This WSJ analysis says you cannot overstate the problem in Brazil as about two thirds of the budget goes to paying old age pensions, payroll of public sector and public healthcare. By 2020 these liablilities will grow to the point there is nothing left for discretionary spending such as roads, infrastructure, new hospitals, police equipment. Trimming pensions and freezing wages are likely options to tackle the problem. Still this leaves Brazil with the prospect of a lost decade.   Neighboring Argentina is experiencing a contracting economy and had to turn to the IMF for assistance.  The decline in GDP comes as a new conservative administration took over promising an improvement in the economy. The peso declined by 18% in 2018 so far leaving Argentina's public and private debt of $166 billion which is 80% denominated in U.S. dollars much harder to pay off. The stronger dollar has hurt Argentina leading to a $50 billion support agreement with the IMF.  Much of Latin America is now in an economic crisis. ...

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Greg Ip says inflation will be moderate about 2.3% instead of 2% as tariffs will probably be use as a negotiating method and tariffs at 20% with 60% tariff as a negotiating tactic by Trump.  Greg Ip says as important than inflation and GDP are the workers displaced and with loss of income through surge in imports and loss of manufacturing in the US. 

Robert Lighthizer, who was trade ambassador in Trump’s first term and is likely to return to manage trade says-

“Globalization produces disruption, dislocation, and destruction. Conservatives by contrast seek to defend traditional values and institutions, preserve the social fabric, and ensure the conditions for families and communities to flourish.”

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Oil prices are at $73 a barrel in Jan 2025. DJT's goal for 2025 is for oil prices to drop to $45 to bring inflation down. To do this requires shale oil producers and Saudi Arabia to increase production. This report in WSJ says Saudis will have a hard time managing budget needs at this price and have indicated they will not increase production. Shale oil producers are also reluctant saying they are in a different phase in the production cycle and are not looking to expand production. 

Prices at the pump have dropped from $5.00 a gallon to $3.10. In 2024 per barrel prices were at $90. 

The new administration hopes that reducing regulations and speeding up the approval process, and new incentives would help increase production.

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A bill passed in the House and now going to the Senate in the US will put a tax on remittances of 3.5% for people who are not US citizens or nationals. It was at 5% but lowered to 3.5% just before the vote. 

Total remittances from the US in 2023 are  $656 billion, according to the World Bank. Total remittances to Africa from US $12 billion of $92 billion total. DW.com shows a family outside Accra, Ghana depending on these remittances for food, medicine and education.

An out of control migrant problem with tens of millions of migrants flooding the US and Europe became a major issue in the 2024 US election. Voters clearly supported strong action to control migration and human smuggling across borders.

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A 2024 US International Trade Commission report by David Riker of the effects on imports of 25% US tariff shows a 75% reduction in imports and a 5% increase in US prices.  It would lead to large new investments in the US auto industry in different states. Hyundai recently announced a $21 billion investment plan in the US and building of a steel plant in Louisiana. General Motors will increase investments in the US and expand production. Other Japanese companies will make large investments for a presence in the US market.

"A new 25% tariff on U.S. imports from outside of North America would reduce vehicle imports by 73.9%, increase average prices of vehicles in the United States by 5.0%, and increase variable profits from domestic production by 5.2%." David Riker, USITC

 

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Greg Ip cites the case of Texas, where businesses helped defeat anti-transgender  legislation, as an example of how businesses have decided it is best to cut reputational risk. Business now generally supports being friendly to gay, transgender, and domestic partners in their policies. This is because business generally favors stability and the status quo, says Ip. Business is known for staying away from extreme positions, being more open and tolerant as a way of doing business.   Where large business is located in big cities, gay and transgender, climate change, are seen as accepted changes, not as liberal causes. For this reason most of the CEO's on Trump advisory councils resigned after the president's controversial remarks critical of both sides in the Charlotte car attack. Ip cites the situation businesses in the South faced in the 1960's when their stores were boycotted after they opposed desegregation- most lost sales and customers with the negative publicity. The situation today is that business is now moving away from reflexive support of Trump or Republicans, says Ip. Mainstream Republicans are also distancing the party from the fringe elements in the party.  ...

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In central Switzerland the Trift  Glacier is nowhere to be seen. In its place is the Trift bridge, a valley and a lake that is a popular destination for hikers. Like thousands of glaciers elsewhere it has melted away with climate change. Switzerland's 1500 glaciers and melting ice generates hydropower that powers 60 percent of the country's electricity. More melting ice means an increase in hydropower generation by 4 percent. Yet this is temporary. Eventually the melting glaciers from climate change mean fewer glaciers and less hydropower. The Alps have the most glaciers in Europe and provide the bulk of Europe's hydropower. Multimedia reporter Ben Solomon provides an exciting look at awesome pictures and media showing the glaciers, mountain generating plants and hydropower in the Alps. A rare look inside the hydropower that produces 16% of the world's electricity, that is now endangered. Researchers at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich have a solution- to use the topography created by the melting glaciers including new lakes and areas that can be made into reservoirs that would be used to generate electricity. The glaciers in the Aletsch part of the Alps are one such region being studied. ...

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The joint statement after the G-8 summit stated that "our imperative is to promote growth and jobs." It stated the budget deficits need to be addressed but said "spending cuts must "take into account countries' evolving economic conditions and underpin confidence and economy recovery." Germany's Merkel in her remarks said growth and deficit reduction supported each other, that "we have to work on both paths, and the participants have made clear, and I think this is great progress." Opposition Social Democrats in Germany say Ms. Merkel is adept at changing as the situation changes, and it appears Merkel is making the transition away from strict austerity policies she had championed earlier. Especially now with fresh elections in France, Netherlands and Greece, and the election of Francois Hollande on a pro-growth platform, the German position of strict austerity is being increasingly questioned on all sides. French president Hollande met U.S. president Obama at a pre-arranged meeting prior to the summit. Obama and Hollande see the need to reduce high unemployment in the U.S. and Europe by encouraging growth, creating a common interest....

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Munich Security Conference is being organized by Christoph Heusgen, the conference chair, who was an adviser to Angela Merkel and previous German  Representative at the United Nations. It will be held Feb 14-16 at the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich. JD Vance will be attending for the US with alarge delegation including Keith Kellogg US DJT envoy to Ukraine and Zelensky of Ukraine. German federal elections are on Feb. 23, 2025 with CDU's Merz holding a lead. Pete Hegseth Defense Secretary is not attending the conference. Hegseth has expressed views skeptical about Ukraine. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch PM is attending as Secretary General of NATO. The Munich Security Conference Report cites DJT and says- "Indeed, the notion of 'resource scarcity' has become a central premise of Republican foreign policy thinking." Germany barely spends 2% on defense. DJT wants to see 5%. DJT's comments are published in the Munich Security Report- "We were being ripped off by European nations both on trade and on NATO." "If you don't pay, we're not going to protect you." ...

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Going forward, it will “be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders, male and female,” DJT said. Executive orders ending automatic birthright citizenship and DEI programs.  Automatic birthright citizenship is not in the Constitution signed on Sept 17 1787, and ratified by the states by June 1788. What was added in the 14th Amendment of 1868 was intended solely to give black people freed from slavery after the Civil War the rights of citizenship. It had nothing to do with millions of people illegally crossing American borders from foreign countries or people coming to the US to gain citizenship by giving birth here. The US vs Wong decision of 1898 came 6 years after the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1892 giving Wong Kim a Chinese born in the US in 1873 rights as a citizen. From 1882 Chinese who build the railroads were kept out of the country under Chinese Exclusion Act till Kennedy in the 1960- as policy applied to all Asians- making it a mystery how the SC decision of 1898 gives automatic birthright citizenship to people of foreign countries born in the US.   ...

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91 year old Chuck Grassley is head of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He has a passion for vigorous Congressional Oversight that has not diminished with age. He says in an interview that he does alot of oversight and all of us should know from our 8th grade civics that Congress has a responsibility for checks and balances to make certain that the executive branch enforces laws consistent with the oath they take. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, a veteran of the US Senate, who like Biden has served for a long, long time under many presidents since he entered the US Senate in 1980 and now holds the office of Senate President pro tempore, says- "We not only pass laws, but you learn in eighth grade civics that we’ve got a responsibility of checks and balances to make sure that the executive branch of government actually enforces the laws according to the oath that they take. So that’s my job and I do a lot of oversight. " He expects Democrats to rebound quickly so that we will have a very different situation in 2026.  ...

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Germany's Bundestag parliament vote eases constitutional "debt brake" March 2025. CDU's Merz and the SPD join with Greens to provide the two thirds majority to remove a constitutional debt brake put in in the Merkel years. Germany's dilapidated infrastructure from rail to other transport and public facilities, to poor childcare are a sign of how the Merkel debt brake has hurt the German economy. Four years of the Greens SPD coalition government of Scholz were wasted when the SPD and Greens wanted investment in infrastructure starting in 2021 but included Lindner of the super cautious Free Democrats as Finance Minister who opposed spending and vetoed it every step of the way. The results can be seen in Frankfurt and other cities and in the underinvestment in Deutsche Bahn rail and all over the country. Merz of the CDU and the SPD and Greens finally fix this problem starting with removing the debt brake.  What happened to Lindner and Free Democrats? They did not make the threshold of 5% for representation in the German parliament, the Bundestag in Berlin. Lindner resigned for his failure. ...

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DJT's affection for the British royal family. Mark Landler of the NYT describes the DJT meeting with Prince William after the ceremony at Notre Dame cathedral reopening in Paris, France. DJT often invokes his mother Mary Ann Mcleod and how greatly his mother admired Queen Elizabeth. As prince Charles met DJT at Mar-a-Lago. Charles and DJT have different views on climate change. As King Charles will provide Britain with additional ways to maintain it's special relationship with the US, even as prime minister Starmer works to restore relations with the EU that were disturbed by Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage's Brexit, says Landler.  In the TV series "The Art of the Surge," DJT is shown displaying pictures of him and Queen Elizabeth, Prince Charles. In “The Art of the Surge” DJT loves to display a book of photographs of him with the queen and Charles, while they are standing near the honor guard at Buckingham Palace. "The Queen was fantastic by the way. Look, Charles, so beautiful. These images, I mean, who has images like these?” ...

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ProPublica Report that shows taxes paid by Warren Buffett of Berkshire, Jeff Bezos of Amazon, Michael Bloomberg of Bloomberg, Soros of financial business, and Elon Musk of Tesla. This report put out by Americans for Tax Fairness shows tax rates of a group of 25 such business persons at 3.4% on wealth growth between 2014-2018 of $401 billion. This is not to say that Democrats or Republicans can be elected to solve this, which is basically a problem not of fairness but of how it enables underfunding of America's basic infrastructure of health, education, transportation, and public services such as parks, clean air, and renewable energy, energy grids, water supplies, heating infrastructure, on and on on the list. Why because the difference between a modern industrial base country and a backward, lack of industrial base country is just this list. When the companies also unfund maufacturing in the US as Apple does by making almost  all products overseas it means lossof manufacturing knowhow and loss of leadership of the free world which simply means chaos without America's leadership based on its founder's values.   ...

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The challenges of immigration with legal vs illegal entry into the US is a topic in some media reporting as the US seeks to do what the US did to tackle out of control illegal migration in 1954 under president Eisenhower. This one from the NYT happens in a small town in Missouri in a pancake and waffle restaurant. Earlier reports in the WSJ showed in 2024 the way Republican areas in small towns in Kansas were making an effort to attract immigrants to meet the need for people in manpower depleted public services. The basic idea of legal vs illegal and all the consequences on a national scale in the US and in Europe when illegal migrations gets out of control and creates divided communities, and strain on public funds and resources, is one that has been seen for over a decade. In Missouri, in a largely Republican town in the US the friendly nature of American public to immigrants is seen in the way the local community cared for and had genuine respect for the worker at the restaurant. Yet there is also the sense among members of this small community that US law should be respected.   ...

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Thomas Grove of the WSJ describes the underground defense system prepared by the government in Helsinki, Finland, in the event of an advance into Finnish territory by Russia. Russia is holding a large military exercize at the Finnish border called Zapad 2017. All 600,000 residents of Helsinki can go underground and the country can function in the event of a Russian advance. Finland faced a Russian advance for 3 months in 1940, leading to a loss of 10% of territory but leaving the government and country intact. Lessons from this experience are kept alive today. Finland is also working closely with NATO of which it is not a member. NATO is also expanding its presence in the Baltic region.

 

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The real reason for the high valuation of $41 billion for Sky Broadcasting by Comcast as it bids for Sky is the need to compete with Netflix, says this piece in the WSJ. Sky has 23 million customers and a strong position in the UK, making it attractive to Comcast. Yet it says this could be a problem for Disney or Comcast as Sky could end up being simply an incumbent TV provider and not the solution they need.