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The importance of time and compound interest in investing cannot be overstated. Over long time horizons steady saving and investing using index funds such as Vanguard with low expenses can take advantage of compound interest to generate good returns. This happens for a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into broad indexes over longer horizons. The longer horizons help overcome fluctuations and volatility, even bubble behaviours, as compound interest plays a larger role. Investing based on timing is not viable because no one is prescient about the market. It is risky if this route of timing is taken because the investor ends up staying out of the market for long periods thus missing out on the power of compound interest to generate good returns. One way of looking at this is to take a $100 investment and see what happens by the sixth year on a calculator if it is invested at 10%, in the sixth year it generates 16% on the original $100.

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The pro-independence party of Catalan president Arturo Mas called an election two years ahead of schedule in an effort to increase autonomy for Catalonia in relations with the central government of Spain. He failed in negotiations to reduce the tax burden for Catalonia in relations with the federal government in Madrid. Arturo Mas's party lost seats in the regional election, ending up with 50 seats compared to the 62 seats it held previously in the 135 seat regional parliament in Barcelona. Other pro independence parties gained seats. The left leaning Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya party increased its seats from 10 to 21 seats. The Partido Popular of Spain's premier Rajoy won 19 seats, up one seat from the 18 it held earlier. There is considerable questioning inside Spain about whether this issue should be brought up at a time of 25% unemployment and negotiations with the EU for loans to restore the health of Spain's banking system.

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Starmer says he will stay on as PM encouraged by smaller losses in the London region after losing Wales and Scotland. Reform got 26% of the vote for 30% of the local councils seats for local government in Britain, Conservatives at 20% and Greens at 16%. SNP was leading in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales, leading to a fragmented result for parties across the country.

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Mexico's president Enrique Pena Nieto describes his plans for increasing economic growth in an interview with Lally Weymouth. He looks back at the changes made through the Pacto de Mexico in energy, education and telecommunications, and in other areas. Changes made will allow political parties to form coalitions after 2018 following a presidential election, to form a majority in the legislature so that new legislation can be passed. A new criminal code for the entire country will override a patchwork of laws in different states. Economic growth is a high priority after disappointing 2.6% growth in the last 3 years, with infrastructure projects planned- new airport for Mexico City, doubling port capacity, new rail lines and high speed rail line Mexico City to Queretaro.

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The $1 trillion infrastructure and defense dund created by removing a constitutional brake in March 2025 opens the road to investment in an  highly underfunded rail system in Germany which has parts of the system dating back to the 1900 period. First to be upgraded is the Hamburg to Berlin line which has the most passenger and freight traffic in Germany. One can see signs of this everywhere, landing at the Frankfurt main rail station one can see a building falling apart that dates back to the 1900 period, that is a sign of the way infrastructure was neglected in Germany till now.

The economic growth under Merkel was somewhat of a mirage as it was dependent on the automobile industry with little investment in renewable energy technologies, dependence on lower priced energy from Russia, huge neglect of infrastructure and childcare, and lack of future vision for Germany.

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Sweden alone has $23.2 billion of loan exposurte for Latvia. Loan exposure for European banks is $42.2 billion for Lithuania, $39.5 billion for Latvia, $35.2 billion for Estonia, and $38.7 billion for Bulgaria. The currencies of the three Baltic republics are pegged to the euro and there value has remained unchanged even as the currencies of Russia, Hungary, Ukraine and the UK have seen substantial devaluations during this crisis. Experts say a devaluation should be undertaken to reduce the pain of wage and benefit cuts for public serive employees. Individuals, homeowners and companies hold over $40 billion of loans that they owe foreign banks, making paymetn more difficult and leading to more loan defaults. Latvia has seen overnight interest rates rise to about 20% and expects GDP to fall 18% this year. Swedish banks say they are prepared for a devaluation and high laon default rates, and the Swedish government has committed to help the Baltic countries in this crisis. See link.

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Under a new program to increased spending on healthcare from 1.3% of GDP to 2.5% the Indian government plans to provide free pharmaceuticals at state run hospitals. This is expected to cost $5 billion over 5 years. Initially 350 drugs would be on a list of essential medicines and would be purchased from generics manufacturers in India. Dr. K. Srinath Reddy, heads the committee advising the Indian government on healthcare. He says this will help improve access to medicines for the vast majority of the people. Estimates show 70% of out of pocket medical costs for Indians come from spending on drugs. About 40 million people are pushed into poverty each year because of the high cost of medicines, says Dr. Reddy. He said that in 1984 31% of the medicines at government run hospitals were provided free to admitted patients, dropping to 9% in 2004. For outpatients this dropped from 18% to 5%. The free medicine program would be part of a larger universal health care program to be introduced over the next decade. India's large generics pharmaceutical industry makes the provision of free medicines on a large scale a feasible option in India because of the lower prices, with additional pricing advantages when purchased in larger volumes by the government. This would also have a major impact on the quality of healthcare in the country of 1.2 billion people for a relatively small investment. It also promotes a sense of fairness and equal access because the benefits of decades of modernization have been unevenly distributed and because of widespread poverty....

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Litigation expenses and settlements for JP Morgan Chase at $17.7 billion for 2008-2012 now exceed the $16.1 billion for Bank of America, according to FBR Capital Markets. JP Morgan Chase plans to spend an additional $4 billion and commit 5000 new personnel to help it clean up the bank's risk and regulatory compliance problems. Of the $4 billon $2.5 billion go into litigation reserves, and $1.5 billion for a 30% increase in risk control staffing and other related expenses. As part of the changes CEO Dimon has put the most senior executives in charge of separate parts of regulatory problems. These executives cannot be overruled by business heads. In another change still to be made at other banks the top compliance officer reports to the chief operating officer of the bank not the general counsel. This change was made at the request of regulators who now meet about 50 times per month with compliance executives. The total control staff for compliance and risk are now at 15,000 in 2013, up from 8000 in 2012. At a 2 day business retreat at Martha's Vineyard compliance and control officers were invited for briefings and came away with equal authority as business chiefs. JP Morgan has also provided 750,000 hours of training on control and regulatory issues to its staff using McKinsey, Ernst Young and other firms. CEO Dimon sees the effort as making the bank stronger than ever and this has become a top priority for him, reflecting a change in his views from the period when the London Whale crisis first emerged. It also shows a leadership trait of Dimon as a learner who puts his full weight behind an effort after gaining new insights into hidden problems....

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The Petrocaribe program has cost Venzuela about $22.1 billion, according to one estimate from the University of Texas, Austin. Under the program participating countries would pay a heavily subisidized price, and received long term loans for the cost at rates of as low as 1%. Petrocaribe countries, including Jamaica, get about 100,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. Oil at $61 a barrel covers only half of Venezuela's budget, and the government has announced cuts in spending of 20%. The IMF estimates that in 2013 such oil shipments declined by 15%, and in 2014 the shipments have declined another 20%.

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The situation in Guangdong province in 2012, with older factories unable to compete with the rising wages, stricter environmental enforcement, and lower export demand. Many Taiwanese manufacturers are closing factories. The growth in Dongguan, a manufacturing hub in Guangdong, is estimated at 3.5% for the first three quarters of 2012, half the overall rate for Guangdong province. A researcher in a Chinese think tank says China's manufacturers are in a kind of "sandwich trap" with competition from Vietnam and India in lower wage production and competition from Germany and the U.S. in higher wage technology intensive products. This is especially true in 2012-2013, now that U.S. and German manufacturers have reduced costs and increased competitiveness.

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Christy Mahon is a "14-er" who has climbed and skied all 54 of Colorado's 14,000 feet mountain peaks. She lives in Aspen, Colorado, where she is the development director of the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies. Christy has her husband as a climbing partner, who became a "14-er" before her.

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The ECB reduced a short term lending rate to 0.75%. The People's Bank of China reduced its one year yuan lending rate by 0.31% percentage point to 6%. The Bank of England increased its bond buying program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds.

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Ms. Vallaud Belkacem is Education minister in the Socialist government of president Hollande in France. She grew up as a poor Moroccan immigrant in a poor neighborhood of Abbeville, in northern France. Her husband is Boris Vallaud, deputy chief of staff for president Hollande.

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GM says that 19,000 employees have taken buyout or early retirement offers and most of them will leave the payroll by July 1, 2008. This will cut GM's workforce by 24%. GM is considering idling at least one plant and discontinuing some product lines as SUV's and truks go into deep sales decline. Most significant is the fact that is incredible but true that with this round of buyouts and retirements about 53,000 workers or roughly half of its workforce has agreed to leave the company since the beginning of 2006. It shows how the bubble in automobiles (see the link to a recent WSJ article on this) has resulted in such severe impact, and moved to create a structural shift in the USA market for automobiles, making them smaller in size and the total number sold in a maturing market smaller also. This is something already ocurring gradually in Japan and Germany from their peak years in auto sales and a shift to overseas slaes as is happening with GM and Ford also as they shift focus to overseas markets. Sales in Brazil were cited by GM CEO Wagoner recently as helping improve GM's otherwise poor results....

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Friedman says the American voter basically said Obama did not get it right the first time but we are going to let you have a second chance. The voters did not have the same enthusiasm for Obama this time. The biggest challenge he says is the lack of enough well paying jobs generated in the American economy. The good wage jobs are declining in manufacturing and in other industries. These jobs have formed the core of middle class jobs in the years since the 1950's and are now endangered. The situation has worsened since the 2008 financial crisis. Zuckerman pointed to this in a recent op-ed in the WSJ, with most of the jobs generated since 2008 being in low wage part time work in retail and other related industries. It is a problem that needs solutions that go outside party ideologies- a new level of imagination says Friedman, educational reforms and collaboration in new ways between schools, universities, business and government.

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John Githongo is appointed in 2002 by Mwai Kibeki, an an anti corruption official, but his efforts only bring him grief. Kibeki is from the Kikuyu tribe, and like Jomo Kenyatta before him in the years after 1963 he is engaged in ramopnt corruption. In the intervening years between Kenyatta and Kibeki, Daniel Arap Moi from the Kalenjin speaking group of tribes aslo was engaged in enriching officials from his tribe. So Githongo, who once reported for the Economist in Kenya, concludes that the election of Odinga would have changed nothing, as he like Obama's father is a Luo, and the Luo's would have in Githongo's words have seen the election as making it "their time to eat". Its interesting to note that Obama's father was like Githongo standing up for something to his great grief that was never to be because of the lack of education among the elites and the leaders of the tribes of their true role in nationbuilding.

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A worldwide trend to shorter term borrowing means that institutions and sovereign governments will compete in the capital markets, as they try to roll over existing borrowing by 2012. The US has $1.3 trillion to roll over by 2012. Worldwide about $5 trillion has to be rolled over, and of this $2.6 trillion is in Europe. With the European financial crisis which started in Greece it is becoming harder for sovereign governments to borrow in capital markets at favorable rates. A former economist of the Bank of England says this is of the highest importance for lending and for growth. The implications are reduced lending by banks to businesses and consumers, reducing output and growth, and limiting reductions in unemployment. It is a big issue say analysts, as debt needs to be rolled over over shorter periods. Moody's study shows new bond issues by banks during the last 5 years matured at an average 4.7 years. The stress say experts is likely to be on the less healthy banks like the savings banks in Spain, Landesbanks in Germany. Stress tests on European banks will be out July 23, 2010....

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The comments attributed to Chief Executive Leung during the election in 2012 about supporting the use of riot police against protestors opposing an anti subversion law in 2003, and his use of tear gas against demonstrators, have infuriated people in Hong Kong. Toeing the Beijing line without consideration of Hong Kong people is making life diificult for Leung. Particularly because of revelations made in the 2012 election campaign that he could not have at the age of 31 been appointed to the committee on the drafting of the Basic Law unless he was a member of the Communist Party. Because of his huge unpopularity Wong says it may be easier for Chinese president Jinping to dismiss Leung and placate Hong Kong people, as a first step. This could be followed by more discussion on the issue of universal suffrage and free elections without prescreening of candiates by the Communist Party.

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Middle managers is just a term, in reality leaders of tomorrow will be learning, practicing their craft, working on projects and products as a part of teams that report to some more experienced manager, who can provide the team the benefit of his experience and mentor these managers. These are not factory floor positions and interface directly with senior managers of the company. Without a seamless integration of all people in the company working in harmony, something has seriously gone wrong in the way the company should work. One might guess from the way companies especially financial institutions have been run, that along with CEO and senior manager aggrandizement, and layoffs of whitecollar workers who bear the brunt of the downturn along with people in the frontline in factories, that these teams and managers have been left out in the cold. Osterman in his book "The Truth about Middle Managers" points to this alienation of middle managers. These managers and teams especially in industries like the auto industry may lack the committment to the company and there may be widespread cynicism about the way senior management and CEO's are running the company. If things are happening the way they should these are the leaders of tomorrow and should be consulted and given increasing responsibility, and older management should make way for new leaders to better adapt to new conditions facing the company and meet new challenges. Instead as in the auto industry boards and CEO's and senior managers perpetuate themselves and their older mindset and their outdated strategies leading to disaster, and the elimination of the positions of these very managers and teams on which the real hopes of the company should rest....

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Following the Wisconsin primary Ted Cruz plans his campaign to prepare for a contested convention. The strategy is to focus on California, and states such as Nebraska and Indiana, and on delegate selection, so that Trump has little chance of winning the required 1237 delegates on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. To do this Cruz plans to hire additional staff, and work at the local city and county level winning endorsements from local and state officials. A similiar process unfolded in the Wisconsin primary, with local Republican base support that was crucial to his win. The focus inside California is on Orange County, San Diego county, San Fernando Valley, rural agricultural Central Valley, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo his wife's home town. In the New York primary where he is behind Cruz is planning to win delegates in heavily Democratic Congressional districts, using ads by pro-Cruz super PAC Trusted Leadership, to add to his delegate count. Cruz is depending on mid-size donors with the help of Jeb Bush and previous backers of Senator Rubio, for additional fundraising to increase campaign efforts....