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Retail and government hiring helped add 1.4 million jobs in the U.S. in August 2020. It has dropped from 15% in April. It was 3.5% in February before the pandemic. About 3.4 million individuals reported that their job loss was permanent an increase, while the number saying their job loss was temporary has declined to 6.2 million from 9.2 million in July.

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Child care shortages are pulling many women out of employment. This is becoming a major issue in the upcoming UK election. The Conservatives have added funding to give women aid to pay for child care costs. This does not address the shortages and reasons for the shortages. Labor has to come up with its plan that tackles the problem at a deeper level.

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Efforts by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates to influence or slow the transition to democracy in Egypt.

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Gerald Seib of the WSJ describes the huge wave of young supporters who helped Labor party leader Corbyn in Britain's 2017 general election. He cites an analysis by the Financial Times that shows young people backed Labor over the Conservatives by 51 points more than the national average. People over age 65 backed Conservatives by 32 points more than the national average. This points to a staggering age gap of 83 points, said the Financial Times. Young people failed to turn out in large numbers during the Brexit vote, and this was a large factor in the pro Brexit win. One exit poll shows turnout went up by 12% in 2017 compared to the 2015 parliamentary election. Only 26% of voters in a WSJ/NBC poll for ages 18-34 years say they approve of U.S. president Trump's performance, 64% disapprove. Seib says the movement of Corbyn is similar to the Bernie Sanders movement in the U.S. and has implications for a similar surge of support showing up in the U.S.

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Jena McGregor's interview with Ben Horowitz of Silicon Valley. Horowitz says its best to keep the founder as CEO, because its harder to teach a professional CEO to innovate, than it is to teach a founder to be a CEO. Better to take the advice of one football sports team owner to his coach when told about injuries and problems: "Nobody Cares. Just coach your team." Best to focus on the task ahead than to get overburdened by thinking about the hurdles. Many companies make the mistake of overhiring and finding they are in trouble when business falls off. At that time a moment of honesty is essential, even though a trust with the employee has to be broken, one cannot hide or blame the employee- only by saying we screwed up and planned the business the wrong way, can one make an honest effort to recover. Not making the honest assessment and being frank with oneself and colleagues can be fatal for a young company. Andy Grove of Intel, cites this example in his book "Only the Paranoid Survive," - to shift out of the memory chip business and close plants was essential once it was clear the Japanese had an unsurmountable edge, a long term move into microprocessors had to start now for Grove and Intel in 1986. An outsider's impersonal logic and no emotional involvement had to be Grove's mindset, as if he was replacing himself as the new head of the business, going out one door and coming back in. Panasonic's moves in 2013 under CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga to exit the plasma television business and focus on new business opportunities, including electric car batteries, is a recent example. On motivation or purpose: no big vision has to be announced and repeated- it is enough to make being a good company at what you do the end goal, make craftsmanship or doing the work you enjoy and can contribute in the end goal and purpose. The modest and straightforward is enough reason for existence and doing very well. How important is training? A lot, a great deal more than one can imagine. People can be talented but not productive. Companies that have good and extensive training programs can do much better than companies that lack these programs. Managers who can continue this with on the job training are also valuable to build on training programs. Sony's Akio Morita personally interviewed new hires, new engineers joining the company at all levels- it is really the contribution of the thousands of engineers that he personally interviewed that built Sony into a global pioneer in electronics in his time. He says the future of the company is determined by the people the company hires. Goes even further, by saying the fate of the company is in the hands of the youngest recruit on the staff. Horowitz finds Jim Collins as management writer a bit abstract and mushy, he prefers Intel's Andy Grove and his books such as High Output Management, as more specific about how to manage business. One could add "Made In Japan," and Morita to the list....

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In a television debate Jan 18, 2017, Benoit Hamon, a 39 year old former Education minister is seen as the most effective of the French Socialist presidential candidates. He proposes a universal income that particularly supports and creates work for young people ages 18-25 years.

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Fox News and WSJ are taking differing positions on Epstein case with Fox News ignoring it and the WSJ carrying the story. Murdoch and DJT have a complicated relationship in July 2025 following the $10 billion DJT lawsuit against Murdoch filed in late July after a story in the WSJ. WSJ parent company Dow Jones says it stands by the story and will defend the accuracy of its reporting. Both the DJT Republicans and the Fox News network appeal to conservative viewers of television, and people in business. WSJ has carried stories questioning the tariff policies of the president, and is critical. It is also not fully supportive of policies to handle migrants. Fox News another Murdoch news outlet is through programs like "Hannity" supporting the president and DJT supports it. This creates a dichotomy in the support when DJT and Republicans are putting forward an agenda that is moving fast on the economy, migration, crime, and world trade requiring support to keep the conservative groups together in the US. This is not a situation encountered before as the nation is moving to a crossroads in which direction it should take. And this does not even take up the issues of climate protection which will come up, and of pharmaceutical companies overcharging Americans for healthcare, other battles that will take place.   ...

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Statements made by Boris Johnson, the new Foreign Secretary of Britain, and former Mayor of London, have gained wide attention in the media.  He has made controversial statements about Obama, Putin, Hillary Clinton, the European Union and written a poem on Turkey's president Erdogan for The Spectator. Theresa May, Britain's new prime minister, is described as making an astute move by making Boris Johnson the Foreign Secretary, as this keeps him  away from the Brexit negotiations, while at the same time including a leader of the Leave campaign in the cabinet.  Foreign ministers of Sweden and France expressed dismay after learning of his appointment. Johnson said of Obama that he was motivated by an anti-imperialist agenda because of "an ancestral dislike of the British Empire," following Obama's recent visit to Britain. Obama's grandfather was a Kenyan porter in British run Kenya. On Trump he says " he is clearly out of his mind," about some of Trump's comments on Muslims. He has apologized for comments on Hillary Clinton. He is in person quite different say people who know him. As Mayor of London he remained popular and helped host the Olympic games in 2012, and setup the city's bike sharing program. He is a prolific author, journalist, and a contributor to the The Telegraph newspaper, with fees of 275,000 pounds a year. ...

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Lt. Gen John Kelly loses his son Robert in Afghanistan and talks about the immense burdens facing military families. Robert is out on patrol duty in a mine filled area of Afghanistan's Sangin district. Only 1% of the population serves in the military. And Kelly says his is only one of 5500 American families that have lost a child in this war. There is a sense among military families that the war and these military families have been forgotten. One Marine Corps general wrote to Kelly that service to and sacrifice for the country has become a legacy affair for a small number of military families. Before the midterm Congressional elections only 2% of the people rated Afghanistan as a top issue and hardly any candidates mentioned this issue. Tom Brokaw, a well known anchor of NBC News, wrote in a major daily that the war and the sacrifices have been forgotten in the election and hardly discussed. Adm. Mike Mullen went so far as to say that he worries that we could wake up one day and that the American people will no longer know us and we won't know them....

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A big change and a rare combination of events is causing labor costs to rise. China's new labor law makes it more difficult for employers to reduce wage costs by methods used in amarket environent without an enforeable code of conduct. The costs of certain raw materials like plastics have gone up significantly. Environmental laws are taken more seriously. And just when wage and raw material costs are rising the government in response to international pressure on the trade surplus is phasing out tax rebates on the less sophisticated products like toys, apparel, leather etc with the intention of moving into more sophisticated products like electronics and cars. As a result after years of falling prices in 2006 prices of Chinese goods in the US went up by 2.4%. And China is putting pressure on commodity prices worldwide through its growing use. All this contributed to USA inflation going up 4.1% in 2007 from 2.5% in 2006. How will this change in 2008 and the years ahead just when the USA is entering a recession and period of sluggish growth? About 7.5% of American spending on consumer goods come from China. With the weaker dollar in relation to the yuan, Chinese factories get fewer yuan for their exports to the USA, the depreciation of the dollar being about 7.6% in 2007 with more depreication ahead in 2008 and 2009. Factory wages have gone up by 80 % in the last few years and the lowest factory wage is about $125 according to experts. Chinese factories have already factored all this into their new pricing asking for price increases of 20, 30, 40 or 50 % according to the American Apparel and Footwear Association. What to expect then on the retail shelves of stores in the USA? Expect a price increase of 10% on Chinese goods. This means from now on Chinese goods instead of lowering inflation in the USA will actually add to inflationand the area of cheap goods coming to a close. As it takes time to move production to places elsewhere in Asia like Vietnam and India its going to be some time before another country takes the place of China....

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The Adventures of Amir Hamza is a story much like the Odyssey but set in the Persian, Central Asia Islamic world. It was born as far back as the 9th century. It has a South Asian version since the epic is retold in different settings and has a oral tradition of being recited by dastangos who used to recite these myths and legends . Amir Hamza is supposedly the uncle of the prophet Mohammed. Its South Asian version is in the Hamzanama that was commisssioned with painted manuscripts by the Mughal emperor Akbar. It has 1400 illustrations and formed the basis of Mughal art which was a fusion of the artistic worlds of Hindu India and Islamic Persia and Central Asia. In those times the Persian speaking world extended from Tabriz to Hyderabad in south of India and the Hamza Adventures were told around campfires and in the outdoors. The Hamzanama paintings commissioned by Akbar were shown at the Sackler Gallery around the time of the Iraq invasion in the summer of 2002 and show a world long forgotten. The Saudi type of Wahhabi Islam and religious zealotry is a far cry from this more open world of art and legend and life in central, south and western Asia, of commerce, trade and ways of life intermingled and flow of people across a large region in Asia. What it may suggest is that the current wave of religious zealotry is a kind of phase that like a passing wind comes and then is dispersed, maybe its a reaction to western interventions, maybe a failed response of tradition with modernization, maybe something else, a clinging to old outmoded patterns in areas that are most left behind by change, with ethnic and other strife mixed in with it. No single or simple response to it makes sense and a lot of patience is needed. Conflict of civilizations talk and the like may simply be overdone and way oversimplified things....

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Under a new agreement reached between the new Iraqi government of prime minister Haider al-Abadi and the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan, Kurdistan will export 250,000 barrels of oil a day in 2015, and the province of Kirkuk will export 300,000 barrels a day. Exports will be made under the Iraq national oil company, SOMO (State Organization for Marketing of Oil). Kurdistan will get 17% of Iraq's budget expenditure, Kurds will sit on the SOMO board, and Kurdish Peshmerga army will get direct monthly payments from Iraq's budget. Earlier in 2014 talks had broken down under the Maliki government- Kurdistan began exports using a pipeline to Turkey and the Iraqi government cut off budget payments to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Iraq's oil minister Abdul-Mehdi said in Vienna after an OPEC meeting in November that Iraq has set a production target of 3.8 million barrels a day for 2015. This is an increase of 500,000 barrels a day compared to production in Oct. 2014.

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This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

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U.S. president Trump has a meeting with the Pope at the Vatican in which both were seated at a wooden desk in the pope's private study, and both listened carefully. Trump told the pope, "Thank you, thank you, I won't forget what you said." The pope gave Trump an encyclical on the environment, in which he said that capitalism had contributed to degrading the environment and this hurt the poor. Trump said he would read the encyclical. The U.S. president was critical of the Paris climate change accord on the campaign trail in 2016. Now as he decides whether the U.S. should withdraw, aides at the White House in favor of it see this as an opportunity for Trump to get a better understanding of the issue before deciding. Mr. Trump gave the pope a first edition copy of Martin Luther King's writings, and Francis gave Trump a medal bearing an olive branch. Trump then met for 50 minutes with the Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Parolin.

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European Union leaders including European Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, ECB president Mario Draghi, and Eurogroup finance ministers head, Jean-Claude Juncker, draw up a 10 year road map for "a genuine economic and monetary union." The prime ministers of Italy, France and Spain push jointly for deposit insurance to cover European bank deposits, Europe wide banking supervision, and bailout funds to directly purchase sovereign debt of Italy and Spain without conditions. This takes place June 22-27, 2012, with the EU leaders increasing pressure on Germany for the first time in concerted fashion. Ms. Merkel and her coalition partners the Free Democrats see this as an effort at mutualizing debt. Merkel says Europe will not have total sharing of debt "as long as I live," in her talks with Free Democrats.

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Financial problems at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and the Italian government's role has introduced an element of uncertainty in the upcoming election in Italy. This has helped former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi recover in the polls. In Spain the newspaper El Pais published information from the ruling Partido Popular financial records showing hidden payments of 25,200 euros a year between 1997-2008. The opposition leaders asked for Rajoy's resignation and Rajoy did not address the matter directly till a joint appearence with Merkel in Berlin, where he said: " I have exactly the same strength, the same courage, and I am just as determined to continue as prime minister to overcome one of the most difficult situations in Spain of the last 30 years." Rajoy has a solid majority in parliament, with his party firmly behind him. This is unlikely to affect the political situation in Spain.

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Blackston and Karnitschnig describe the European Central Bank's role in the current crisis and buying of bonds of troubled eurozone countries. And the resistance in Germany to the ECB's purchase of bonds of eurozone countries to prevent contagion effects in the eurozone. ECB President Trichet only reluctantly pushed the ECB into bond purchases in the recurring crises, and saw the ECB's role as strictly limited to controlling inflation and maintaining a stable euro currency. There is resistance in Germany to the ECB printing money to cover eurozone debt of Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. This comes from the searing experience with hyperinflation, an economic crisis similiar to that of the U.S. with the Great Depression, when the Reichsbank printed money in the 1920's to buy large quantities of government bonds. The Bundesbank that ensured Germany's postwar recovery focussed on a single mandate to control inflation, and this is a key part of the ECB's charter. The first president of the ECB when it was founded in 1998, was Dutchman Wim Duisenberg, who would tell politicians: "I hear you, but I don't listen." When Frenchman Trichet became the second ECB president, he focussed on inflation fighting efforts. He warned against the extravagant spending and fiscal irresponsibility of some eurozone countries saying "we are dancing on a volcano."...

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Paul Krugman points out in the NYT that September 2022 high inflation numbers for core inflation excluding energy and food of 6.6% on annualized basis, is still not a good way to measure actual inflation. This is because housing costs as measured by the core inflation index used by the Labor Department are represented by housing rental costs. The rental costs have a time lag in this index and after a sharp spike are now cooling off. Add to this slowing economies and recessions in European economies and the situation suggests that the economy and inflation may be moderating more than expected. Additional factors are that the effects of sharp prior 2 increases in interest rates by the Fed of 0.75% and a third of 0.75% expected soon, are still not fully realized in the economy. This view was also expressed by experts in the WSJ. It was widely perceived that the high inflation that we are seeing is a result of temporary factors such as the war in Ukraine, food and oil supply constraints, supply chain bottlenecks, new adjustments to manufacturing at home after covid. As these factors ease and after the Fed's action to raise interest rates, slowing economies in Europe adjusting to climate change actions,  the moderating effects on the economy of the costs in switching to renewable energy also a factor, this high inflation has prospects of moderating. The successful switch to renewables particularly solar, and better agricultural practices, could set along term trajectory of moderate inflation in costs of energy and food supplies.  ...

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The real reason for the high valuation of $41 billion for Sky Broadcasting by Comcast as it bids for Sky is the need to compete with Netflix, says this piece in the WSJ. Sky has 23 million customers and a strong position in the UK, making it attractive to Comcast. Yet it says this could be a problem for Disney or Comcast as Sky could end up being simply an incumbent TV provider and not the solution they need.

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President Trump faces criticism for allowing the trade deficit to grow and following tax policies that have aggravated the fiscal deficit.  

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Feldstein's thoughts in April 2009, on Treasury's Public-Private Investment Plan. First, he says this plan will only remove $500 billion of impaired assets. The banks he says now own $3 billion of residential mortgages, $1.5 trillion of corporate real-estate loans, and $1 trillion of consumer debt. Not all of this is impaired but the banks will have to sell much more than $500 billion to regain confidence in their solvency. And with one third of all residential mortgages exceeding the value of the houses, and thie many homeowners under water, likely to default, the negative feedback loop of foreclosures begetting falling prices begetting foreclosures, threatens the whole effort to shore up the defences. If no workable solution is executed quickly to prevent this then even larger pools of mortgage debt will be impaired irretrievably. Feldstein suggests that the Obama administration seriously look at his plan suggested in March 2008 to provide government loans at low rates of interest like 1- 2% for 20% of the principal amount of the mortgage and then reduce the mortgage principal by 20%, thus keeping millions of homeowners above water. But this needs to be done quickly. All voluntary efforts have failed and have become asmokescreen for banks and lobbying groups with support from Congress to make it appear that this problem is being addressed. Thirdly Feldstein says that if banks sell these impaired mortgage assets at a loss- say 40-60 cents on the dollar on the upside with government and the FDIC picking up alot of the risk and financing for private investors under the new plan- they will now have to show the loss whereas they could have previously shown these assets at unrealistic price levels but still not taking losses. This might push banks into insolvency, so banks will need more injection of capital by the government to make this possible. What are the risks in this situation? Without an effective plan to prevent the negative feedback loop of foreclosure waves and falling houseprices, the quantity of impaired assets will simply grow larger. In effect even if some private investors take out some of the impaired assets from the banking system, it is possible that a new set of assets equal to or larger than these assets that are taken out are added to impaired assets in the banking system as house prices fall steeply from new foreclosures. That only means the economy is in the same hole as before, or in a slightly larger one, even with all the well intentioned steps. At some point the private enterprise argument has to be seen in the correct light. It is not that there is any argument that private enterprise can function better or far superior, it is only that the banks as private enterprises are in such an enormously stressed situation that the bank executive's cannot execute a way out of this mess. ...

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Neil Irwin of the NYT provides some positive news on U.S. housing. Access to housing at affordable prices is improving as more home are built at the lower end. In July home buyers bought single family houses at the annual rate of 654,000, highest since 2007, according to government reports. This is an increase of 31% over 2015. Builders are building new houses at the rate of one million homes a year every month since April 2015. Census Bureau report shows median sale price at 294,600 for new homes in July down from $310,500, largely because more homes are being supplied which is good for first time buyers. And home price increases are moderate, about 5% a year for the last 2 years, based on S&P/Case Shiller home price index composite of 20 cities. The home ownership rate is now at 62.9%, and though this is down from 69% in 2016, this is close to the 63-64% that prevailed during the period from 1965 to the eighties.  It could move higher as the economy improves and supply at the lower end increases further, but other factors are present such as delaying buying a house as student debt has soared, or not buying at all because of lack of affordable prices. Investment in housing is likely to increase- at 3.8% of GDP it is still below the 4.6% average since 1947.   ...

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IMF forecasts for Greece's growth rate are proving too optimistic. The IMF forecast is for zero growth in 2013, and increases of 2.3% and 2.9% in 2014 and 2015. Even in its pessimistic projections the IMF forecasts a 1% downturn in 2013 and growth of 1.3% and 1.9% in 2014 and 2015. The government sector was a large part of the economy. Now that this is shrinking, the export sector which only represents 20% of GDP is too small to generate needed growth. Greece also lacks the competitiveness and the large foreign enterprises that operate in Ireland, making growth less likely. A major problem is also the 40 billion euros Greeks have withdrawn from their banks in recent years. Even the figure of 120% of GDP that is expected in 2020 under the March 2012, 130 billion euro bailout is a very hypothetical figure, having no sound basis. Landon Thomas cites a confidential study the IMF had circulated in February 2012, showing the long term prospect for Greek debt if growth does not materialize because of lack of competitiveness. It would increase the debt to GDP ratio to 178% by 2015, and leave it at the current level of 160% of GDP in 2020. Some experts say the whole debt sustainability analysis makes no sense, with the question being insolvency in the case of Greece, not illiquidity. And requiring a focus to bring debt to manageable level to create prospects for growth. The Wall Street Journal emphasizes this in its editorial on Feb. 29, 2012....

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Renault's low cost entry cars which were originally designed with emerging markets in mind, are now popular in France and other countries in Europe. Renault gets 30% of its market share, up from 15% in 2006, from low cost cars like the Logan, which cost conscious buyers buy for around $10,000, instead of buying a used car. This has helped Renault at a time when other segments are not doing so well, and when Peugeot had to arrrange a 1 billion euro emergency capital increase. The profit margin on these low cost cars is 6%, compared to 2-3% profit margin on other Renault models. Renault manufactures the cars under the Renault label or the Dacia lavel depending on where they are sold, and uses a factory in Romania. Renault's model is to set the margin first and then ask suppliers such as LG and others to try to come up with a low cost design that meets its margin requirement. This eliminates features that add cost and may be dispensed with for the customer in mind. It requires a fresh approach. Cutting edge is replaced by working with parts designed for older models that cost less. Renault also used the experience gained in the Romanian factory where some of the tasks are done manually instead of using robots, and waste is reduced. The process has taken time because the Dacia Romanian factory was acquired under a previous CEO Louis Schweitzer in the late 1990's, and the first Dacia Logan was made in the Romanian factory at Pitesti, near Bucharest, in 2004. The reliability of the Dacia made cars is well established, say experts. On the sales side the Logan is sold on a no discount basis with fixed price. Dealers are told no discounts are permitted. Total sales of these cars reached 814,000 in 2011 and are expected to cross 1 million in 2012. This is similiar to the achievement of Toyota with its low cost multipurpose vehicles for emerging markets, which is expected to cross 1 million in 2012. The difference is that Renault has achieved this with European buyers in a bold strategy. Tata Motors which pioneered the effort to build low cost small cars with its $2000 vehicle is planning its own entry in Europe, the Pixel as a low cost city-car in European markets in 2015. And Renault is moving further down in cost than the Logan, as its next step, with such a car manufactured in India by Nissan-Renault and regional partners....