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This exceptional report by Chulov in the Guardian shows the changes in the war in Iraq and Syria in 2015-2016 since the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey in late 2015. It says that the Syrian government's future was uncertain in late 2015 with Turkish support for rebel forces in the north. During this period Russia curtailed trade and tourism relations with Turkey, and improved relations with the Kurds. Russia intervened in northern Syria directly to prevent a collapse of Syrian government forces in the north. Kurdish forces were already controlling large parts of the Syrian territory adjoining Turkey, and Turkey was concerned about the support to Kurds within Turkey from Kurds in Syria and a historical movement for  Kurdish independence. In April 2016 Russia made a move to win Turkish support by saying it would support the territorial integrity of Syria, so that no support would be given to the Kurds. As the U.S. consistently supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Turkey under prime minister Erdogan changed its policy of support for rebel forces in Syria to focus on what it perceived as the threat fom Kudish control of the region at its Syrian borders. Rebel forces were told to focus not on the Syrian government forces but on ISIS, leading to withdrawal of support in Aleppo. What remains now of the war in Syria and Iraq is Iranian influence in Iraq, the Russian influence from support of the Syrian government in Damascus, and for the first time U.S. ground forces in the north with 900 troops supported by artillery on the side of the Kurds. The next stage in the war to take ISIS controlled Raqqa is being negotiated between Russia, Turkey and the U.S., according to this report.  ...

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The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

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J.P. Morgan Chase announces $2 billion in trading losses in May 2012. The Chief Investment Office unit made a bet with a trading strategy that CEO Jamie Dimon said had grown very complex. These losses could grow or shrink during the rest of the year.

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Huge inflows of capital into emerging markets because of low interest rates in the developed world, and the bubble effects this causes. Risks for emerging market countries as bubbles develop.

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Krugman questions whether the assumptions behind the austerity policies are true- that they would inspire confidence in economic recovery, or that in the absence of austerity policies borrowing costs would go through the roof. The recent events in Holland with the collapse of the government in the Netherlands- when a party leader supporting the government said he did not want to hurt pensioners in the Netherlands just to satisfy German opinion- and the mood in France with economic anxiety vote going to Marie Le Pen and Francois Hollande in the first round of presidential elections, shows that very little confidence has been created. High unemployment and economic anxiety are leading to a reappraisal of austerity cuts that depress the economy and reduce tax revenues, but Krugman says no changes are taking place to correct these policies. This is true for Spain with its high unemployment, and Britain which now has two quarters of negative growth.

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In the last 3 years foreign exchange reserves from Iraqi oil revenues have tripled to $22 billion, and there are an additional $8 billon in bank accounts in New York from unused funds from oil exports. Yet Americans are shouldering most of the burden for reconstruction of Iraq with $47 billion spent so far and both Senators Warner and Levin are raising questions about why Iraqi oil revenue cannot bear some of thses costs. These questions will grow louder as the US faces its own economic crisis from financial markets in turmoil. Meantime only 22% of Iraq's $6 billion capital budget for infrastructure expenditures has been spent so far. The infrastructure budget itself seems to be very small. After the war and years of decline under economic sanctions of the previous regime one would expect the needs to be huge, yet only $2 billion spent so far is very strange. Even the account here of bureaucratic bungling and loads of signatures required to prevent corruption, and the lack of a computerized banking system requiring the physical handling and moving of truckloads of cash seem strange considering the extraordinary amount of investment and huma effort the US has put into this war and reconstruction. Even this article fails to account for this bizarre situation of dire needs for infrastructure and for basic services of sewage, health and basic food supplies and housing going unmet while oil revenues and US funds go unused. Has this something to do with the militias, lack of security, insurgent fighting, and ethnic cleansing, and lack of agreement and decision power in the administration, that has created a bizarre situation in which nothing much happens. The oil revenues also complicate matters in that in any defacto partition and separate administrations of Sunni and Shiite areas and Kurdish areas the oil revenues need to be fairly divided so that it supports neigborly coexistence of the communities. This delays creation of separate administrations and accountability which could lead to dramatic improvement in services and rebuilding as accountability is missing today with every bureaucrat and politicain waiting to see what happens and what the future will look like....

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Zara which started with one store in La Coruna aport town in a remote part of northern Spain is the second largest retail clothing chain after Gap Stores now has3691 stores in 68 countries, adding 560 stores in the last 12 months and entering new markets in places like Croatia, Columbia, Guatemala, and Oman. Its best known for fast fashion and updating fashion frequently with new fashion clothing coming in twice a week. Lower volumes mean they sell out fast and don't require writedowns and fashions that fly can be resupplied quickly because Zara does most of its manufacturing (two thirds) in Spain or in countries nearby like Portugal, Morocco and Turkey. The closeness of manufacture and the logistics are set up such that the orders can be made quickly with sales monitored constantly on computers at La Coruna HQ and at stores locations and the manufacture and shipping can be done speedily. Not requiring writedowns and selling lower cost fashion at higher prices especially outside Spain where prices are higher (40% higher in New York for instance) and having an efficient system with costs weeded out and focus on building the brand and pleasing customers to command good profit margins enables Zara to continue manufacturing in Spain where costs are not what they would be in China or Vietnam. As other stores are learning from Zara and doing this in their stores Zara is working on refocussing its formula and fine tuning it to stay ahead of competitors. For example its making sure costs do not rise faster than sales, for first half 2007 costs went up 16% and sales went up 19%. Staff is being scheduled using new software based on sales volume at differen times, so that more salespeople work at peak times such as lunchtime or early evening, which enable Zara to cut 2% of hours worked. Alarm tags are attached at the factory, and the newest collections get labelled NEWC and are rushed to the floor on plastic hangars and only later switched to wooden hangers, and store managers now use handheld computers to sho garments ranking by sales so reordering can be done quickly in less than an hour....

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New York Times readers respond to Drew Western's article in Sunday Review, NYT of August 7, 2011. Readers express disappointment with President Obama's lack of courage and initiative.

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Friedman says Obama's 2012 presidential campaign lacks bold vision, a failure to articulate tangible achievements, and owes too much to campaign consultants. He describes it as being developed in test tube fashion. The failure to embrace and strongly advocate his own presidential commission's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which could be coupled with long term investment in the productive potential of the U.S. economy, shows the lack of courage to prepare a plan going forward. It is likely to cost support of independent, center and center-right voters in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

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Experts point out that Saudi oil price policies are set on a technocratic basis by a small group of advisors. An oil industry veteran Naimi, 79, leads this group of advisors. This means the new King Salman is likely to follow the same course as his predecessor King Abdullah. Gulf oil officials were expecting a drop to around $50 to $60 a barrel, the drop below $50 has surprised even the Saudis. NYT cites IMF estimates of a loss of oil revenues for Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf of about $300 billion in 2015. The Economist and WSJ reports say that for the long term shale oil production and advance in technologies are likely to play a lasting role in keeping oil prices low. At a time when Saudi society is changing, population growing, an older generation likely to transition to a younger generation in government, the cost of the social safety net and ample benefits will remain a concern for the Saudis for the long term.

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Robert Stavins of the environmental economics program at Harvard is cited in this NYT article by Coral Davenport. Stavin says that even with the change in policy favoring fossil under Trump administration the trend is towards using less fossil fuel and this trend is unlikely to change. This makes the claims of Trump that half a million jobs can be created with less regulation of the coal industry and shale oil industry, less likely. Industry is shifting away from coal for economic reasons and investors preferences, say experts. At the same time the progress away from fossil fuels is likely to be inadequate to avoid the worst effects of global warming, says Stavins. The change by industry is reflected in the decisions made by executives such as Nicholas Akins at American Electric Power, Ohio based electric power company. Akins tells NYT that he is making decisions for power generation 20, 30 and 40 years from now, and this assumes some form of carbon control. He says no question but that industry will move forward with cleaner energy and that means closing large coal facilities. The incoming Trump administration does not affect his policy. Another factor away from coal is dictated by economics- the availability of cheap natural gas from hydraulic fracturing. Incentives for renewable sources such as wind, solar, are not likely to change either say experts, because the solar panels and wind turbines are made in Republican and Democratic favoring districts and have support of Republicans in places like Arizona, Texas and Kansas. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ describes the prolific effort to collect donations for the Clinton Foundation that it says promotes crony politics and lobbying. It says that this happened after some of the ethical questions raised during Clinton's two terms as president. This has been a particular problem for Hillary Clinton during the primaries, something she could do without as she has a 40 year record of public service and exceptional work in support of children in the U.S.. And specific programs for infrastructure and other areas to strengthen the U.S. in which much needs to be done in the future. 

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Studies at the University of Padova in Italy and by France's research agency INSERM show higher risks of dementia from retiring early. The INSERM study shows that for every additional year worked we reduce the risk of dementia by 3.2 percent. Retiring at age 50 is considered very, very poor decision, and before 60 very poor decision, as cognitive development, mood, and active engagement with work offering complexity, all relate to good mental health. Countries like U.S. and Denmark where people tend to work for longer than in France and Austria are shown to be doing significantly better in cognitive performance in a 2010 study published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The Italian study shows the longer you spend in retirement the higher the risks of cognitive decline.

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Mexico is close to becoming the U.S.'s largest trading partner. Trade increased by 17% between Mexico and the U.S. to $461 billion in 2011, compared to $502 billion in trade between the U.S. and China.