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Scholz loses a no confidence vote in parliament that he called so that new elections are held in 60 days according to federal German law.  He says it is a fundamental choice that German people need to make between pensions and investments for the future with support for the armed forces vs the policy that doe not plan to invest in the future with a debt brake limiting investment. The Free Democrats opposed SPD and Greens efforts to invest for 4 years. Why did Scholz continue. in this way with FDP CDU's Merz asks directly, was Scholz on another planet.  This has happened three times before- in 1972 when Wily Brandt got support for his Ostpolitik policy of better relations with Soviet Union and GDR and new mandate after planning a no confidence vote for a new election. He won with 46% of the vote and 91% of eligible voters voted. In 2005 Kohl was reelected after a no confidence vote he planned on his government to get a new mandate. Kohl of CDU won. In 2005 Gerhard Schroeder's social and economic reforms affected working class Germans- he called a no confidence vote to get a new mandate. This one Schroeder of SPD lost and it started Angela Merkel of CDU's 16 years in office. ...

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Financial markets and investors now see the uncertainties emanating from tariffs negotiations as temporary and unlikely to affect corporate profits and the US economy says this report in WSJ. When the EU requested an extension with EU president Leyen calling DJT on May 27th, Trump who had said the EU was dragging its feet on trade negotiations with the US, granted her request. Leyen promised to speed up the negotiations with the new deadline of Juy 9, 2025. Trump had called for an across the board 50% tariff on all EU products if the EU continued the lack of response. In this way DJT called the bluff the Europeans were playing seeking to portray the American tariffs negotiations in an unfavorable way.  How did markets respond? The S&P 500 increased by 2% on May 27th when it became clear that a trade settlement was likely to be reached in 6 weeks. Earlier DJT had met with Mark Carney of Canada another key trading partner and come up with an understanding on moving forward. DJT has shown flexibility with advice from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent who has experience with and carefully followed financial markets. ...

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People and parties of Kashmir on the attack on tourists at Pahalgam, Kashmir on April 22, 2025. The economy of Kashmir after the pandemic was recovering with a surge in tourism, new investment in agriculture, and the region benefitting from investments for Vikshit Bharat 2047.  Most of the Kashmir region remain closed in memory of tourists killed in the attack.  Kashmir region has a long history that has been lost in the coverage since 1947 as the colonial rule ended in the region with intermittent peace and conflict. For 7 centuries there was Hinduism from the Vedic period, Buddhism, followed by 7 centuries of Shiva religion till the 15th century when Islam entered the region for 3 centuries till the Sikhs and Sikhism a religion around deity Ram around 1819 and the British after 1850. The British set up a protectorate in Kashmir under the British Empire ruled by a Sikh king from 1850 to 1948. What this says is that after a unsettled period till 1948 to 2020, the region is likely to return to its history of tolerance for different people from South Asia, with one huge difference, the rapid modernization of the region in the 21st century replacing the feudal poverty and backwardness of a overtaxed and underdeveloped farmers communities. ...

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Maps of the region of Kashmir in the Himalayas shown here show how close Pakistan cities of Lahore and Islamabad are to Jammu and Kashmir and how close the Punjab is to Kashmir. It gives recent history of Kashmir since colonial rule of British ended in 1948, and no mention of the history of Kashmir from 100 BC to the 15th century when for 1500 years Vedic and Buddhist cultures, Shiva culture prevailed in the region. For only 200 years between 1500 and 1700 were Muslim invasions prevalent in the region after 1750 the British gradually took control of the region when Kashmir was a British protectorate under British law and non-religious rule.  Much of the present situation is a result of the abrupt end to British rule after World War II by 1948-1950 with Communist China, a new state of Punjab and Sind called Pakistan, and most of South Asia as India emerging from the conflicts and contesting control. India now leads an effort since 2016 for modernization of the region, to provide the education and healthcare levels of modern states of Europe and America to Himalayan region that is missing because of a lack of the technological resources, and resources India is now able to use to build infrastructure and invest.  ...

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“Getting gas from America is always a good thing.” Alaska's governor Dunleavy tells Japanese and South Korean, Taiwanese investors. Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba says the LNG from Alaska is "wonderful for us." It takes just 7 days to get this LNG to South Korea or Japan.  Mike Dunleavy's plan, called Alaska LNG, is for a 800-mile pipeline from Prudhoe Bay that would feed gas to a to be built liquefied natural gas terminal at Nikiski near Anchorage. What was once just a hope as investors pulled out is now a reality with DJT telling Dunleavy, "lets get it done, let's not just talk about it." Note that something similar is likely to happen for car investments by Japanese and South Korean companies. Already Hyundia Kia has announced a $21 billion investment. For Alaska LNG pipeline South Korea has said this has "infinite possibilities for growth." US Navy is rebuilding for protecting the Asia-Pacific, Japan and South Korea know the importance of the actions of the new Republican administration for Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region, and tariffs can be a time to invest more in American manufacturing and show restraint in pricing. ...

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This is not just offering something to every group, it is rebuilding the middle class when seen in the larger context of rebuilding America's industrial base and taking  it to new heights after losing it to China under Bush-Obama 2000-2016. Under MAGA Trump inequality is tackled just differently from the way Democrats tackled it under Biden. The tax break for auto loans, interest on auto loans is deductible for taxes, is part of the new Tax Bill to appeal to auto workers. It is only applicable to US made cars and this promotes US made cars over foreign factory made cars such as the Germans and Koreans and some Japanese auto makers did before 2025. Reagan scrapped this tax break, it is back under Trump as the Republican base now includes auto workers and the now back to growth mode middle class. The deduction in local and state taxes increases to 30,000 to benefit small business owners. There is also the tax on tips which is removed. Retired people get an added $4000 deduction and not elimination of taxes on social security benefits entirely because of the Bryd rule that prevents changes to retirement with a simple majority vote not the 60 votes in the Senate.  ...

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"The privilege of United States citizenship is a priceless and profound gift." The 14th Amendment was a repudiation of infamous Dred Scott decision and stood up for rights of black people, at no time was it intended to bring mothers from Asia or Africa to the US to get automatic citizenship for a child. 255,000 mothers a year with no connections to the US arrive here for automatic bithright citizenship- US Supreme Court rules "no" June 27 2025, and objects to mothers filing the lawsuits for their children when the mother has no legal status. Justice Coney Barrett in a 6-3 decision says the district courts cannot make laws over the decisions of the executive branch for the whole country as they have tried to do till now. This means birthright citizenship executive branch decision cannot be overruled across the nation. Most of the lawsuits are filed in states favorable to this or that approach.  In a few months the Supreme Court will address the automatic birthright citizenship issue at its core. Can a mother come to the US just to get her child US citizenship coming on a visitor visa. Much of the nation sees this as belittling the value of US citizenship.  ...

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Leadership and the courage to look at things differently and realize the changes going on across the world were required for reaching an agreement on cooperation between the U.S. and India in the field of civilian nuclear energy development. The agreement provides for separating the civilian and military nuclear programs. Under the agreement 14 of India's 22 nuclear plants would be classified as as for civilian use and made subject to inspections. This establishes the framework for developing nuclear energy in India with U.S. help to meet India's pressing energy needs. Bush said it was important not to get stuck in the past- "I'm trying to think differently, not to stay stuck in the past, and recognize that by thinking differently, particularly on nuclear power, we can achieve some important objectives." Bush emphasized this in a joint news conference with Indian premier Manmohan Singh- "What this agreement says is, things change, times change, that leadership can make a difference." The Bush administration is working to establish greater cooperation with India and Japan in the Asian region....

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The most alarming report is that from researchers at Peking University Health Sciences Center in Beijing, which shows 10 years of data on lead poisoning. Its conclusion: About 34% of children in China have blood levels that exceed the WHO limit of 100 micrograms per 1 litre of blood. A whole generation of children may be compromised. To avoid being noticed factories that have toxic byproducts or emissions are being setup in the countryside. Lead products are added to herbal products that are sold by weight to make them weigh more. It is regularly added to plastics and vinyl to make it temperature resistant. Once in the human bloodstream lead mimics other substances like calcium and zinc and iron and binds to sites in the brain intended for calcium disrupting brain cells leading to ireversible brain impairment. See the article in August 2, 2007 NYT, about the recall of 1 million Mattel toys, Elmos and Big Birds, for lead detected in them. Note that Mattel's monitoring system did not catch this, it was caught by a retailer....

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Trofimov of the WSJ says the action by Saudi Arabia for execution of 47 persons most of them involved with Al Qaeda from tribes, including a Shiite cleric Nemer al-Nemer who led Arab Spring type protests in eastern Saudi Arabia, was meant as much to appeal to domestic conservative Sunni opinion as it was as a counter to Iran. The government of Saudi Arabia increased spending on social benefits after the Arab Spring in 2011, yet was forced to increase prices of some grades of gasoline by 50% at gas stations to conserve financial resources from its $640 billion sovereign wealth fund. The Saudis and the Russians are on opposite sides of the Syria-Iraq war, with the Saudis holding down oil prices as part of the geopolitics of the region, which led to the budget cuts in Saudi Arabia in 2015-2016. Conservative Sunni opinion in the country favors stronger action by the Saudi government against Russian and Iranian intervention in Syria and Iraq, according to Trofimov.

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Michael Gerson of the Washington Post reflects on billionaire property developer Donald Trump's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. He says Trump's temperament could make or break his campaign, citing the disparaging remarks made by Trump when Megyn Kelly brought up the issue of denigrating women to Trump in a presidential debate. Roger Ailes, head of Fox News, and Rupert Murdoch head of the parent company, refused to disqualify Kelly from the seventh debate on Jan. 28, 2016, as Trump had insisted on for his participation. Gerson cites a little incident at a Pensacola, Florida Trump rally, with a microphone malfunctioning Trump uses strong language, according to Gerson. He compares this with a similar situation when he was with George Bush in the family theater practicing his first address to Congress, where he apologized to a teleprompter assisting him for being blunt and walking out. Gerson says it is time to take a deep breath and reflect on where we are today after many weeks of a campaign where the public discourse has deteriorated in unimaginable ways....

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European leaders meeting in Brussels set Sunday July 12, 2015, as the final day by which Greece is expected to submit proposals and reach an agreement with the EU. All EU leaders will be present at the Sunday meeting at which Greece's postion as a member in the eurozone will be settled, and measures for humanitarian aid to Greece can be discussed. EU chief Juncker called Sunday July 12, 2015 the deadline date. Greece's finance minister Tsakalotos surprised European leaders by not having any proposals to submit. German chancellor Merkel said at a news conference- "There are only a few days left for a discussion on what's going to happen in the future. What we need now is a multi-annual program tht goes far beyond the program that we discussed ony 10 days ago." Experts at Bruegel research organization in Brussels say the ECB providing emergency financing is dependent on Greece coming to an agreement with the EU, and if no agreement is reached Greece's exit from the eurozone is very likely....

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This WSJ editorial is critical of the 2015 apology of Japanese prime minister Abe on the 70th annivesary of the end of World War II. It says the use of the word "owabi" as was done by previous premiers Murayama in 1995 and Koizumi in 2005 was important for its neighbors and the U.S., yet the apology falls short of a full acceptance of the message of that period. Mr Abe's reference to the fact that 80% of the people today were not alive when the war crimes took place does not make it any less important for Japan to face recent history in a responsible way, says the Journal. Mr. Abe's reference to the view that Japan acted in this way after western powers isolated it and that Japan's empire building helped overthrow western colonialism, says the editorial is a misrepresentation of the facts of history, because Japanese colonialism and ideas of racial superiority were spread throughout Asia. Abe's apology stands in contrast with the apology offered by Emperor Akihito which expressed "deep remorse"...

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The number of student loan borrowers in the U.S with loans over $100,000 has surged from about 1 million in 2010 to 1.82 million in 2014, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Th borrowers are graduate students who have piled up so much debt in the last decade that 40% of student debt of $1.19 trillion in 2015 is from graduate student debt. A major problem is that there are no limits to graduate student borrowing and the rates are higher because of bad loans in the system, increasing the size of the burden of student debt on individual borrowers rapidly, ironically at a time of low interest rates. This leaves borrowers worse off with unpayable student debt affecting them all their lives, taxpayers paying more, prudent student loan borrowers paying higher rates, and all the time reducing the pressure on universities and colleges to reduce costs for affordable graduate education. This is now a major problem in the U.S. and a major issue in the 2016 presidential election.

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WSJ's Chuin-Wei Yap provides a glimpse of life in Chengdu with the closing of the Panchenggang steel factory. The Chengdu Iron and Steel factory was started in 1958 under Mao's effort at industrialization. The city depended on the huge steel complex for jobs as generation after generation worked at the same factory. The factory was closed in 2015. Mr. Deng is a laid off worker who gets $24,000 in buyout following 26 years at the plant, and 1500 yuan or about $235 month for 2 years of unemployment benefits with required retraining classes. Economic uncertainty is faced by many laid off workers, worrying about children's college education, spouses doing odd jobs, including a pedicab run by Mr. Deng's wife. About 2 million workers in China work in steel factories, with production having reached extremely high level of overcapacity of 800 million tons. With the plant gone, the local hospital Panchenggang District Hospital, is restructured and bought by a private company, 115 doctors and other staff are offered buyouts....

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Only 5.8 billion of the $39 billion in the stimulus package of $787 billion assigned to the Department of Energy for creating jobs in the field of "green" energy has been allocated as of June 19th. THe Department of Energy is structurally still making the shift o its new role as funder of green energy projects for energyefficiency and green fuels. It was understaffed as an agency with abudget of $26 billion. With the additional $39 billion a lot has to catch up for it to meet its new role. Besides awarding new contracts and grants the Department of Energy has pre-existing loan guarantee and direct loan programmes for energy projects that are boosted by stimulus money. And as this was moving very slowly, taking 3 months just to appoint an analyst to to look at an application, the staff for this is being boosted from 35 to 95. Because of the shortage of people the Department has asked Universities and trade associations for help for volunteer experts to look at loan applications. About 2000 experts have offered their help....

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Ford executes new strategy for reaching the younger first time buyers of small cars in India. The car is a hatchback called the Figo designed with the help of Indian engineers for the Indian and overseas markets. It has done a$500 million expansion of its plant in Chennai, India, doubling production to 200,000 vehicles ayear, and 250,000 diesel engines a year by 2010. Mullaly says: "literally India is designing the small car for the world." Separately Ford is building a new car plant in Chongquing, China, for 300,000 cars, midsize and suv's. The change is huge and dramatic for car production. CSM Worldwide predicts car sales in India 45% higher in 2011 compared to 2007, and 39% growth in China, 26% in Brazil. In contrast, car sales in North Americaand Europe will not have returned to 2007 levels by 2011. Considering declining levels in Japan and Germany sales may be on a slow downturn. See links to this. For instance Ford predits Ford's production in North America will decline to 35% of global production by 2015 from 54% in 1997. ...

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Huaxi, Jiangsu province, a few hours car ride northwest of Shanghai, is a village of 2000 residents. It has built a 74 story skyscraper, with a concert hall and a revolving restaurant. The village residents have joint ownership through Jiangsu Huaxi Corporation with the companies 2009 report claiming it has investments in businesses that return 50 billion renminbi or $7.7 billion in income. About 25,000 workers, mostly migrant workers, are said to be employed by the village. These workers work and live in an area outside the village. The whole story appears to be more that a bit bizarre. There is no other information on where this money is coming from and who is managing it. If anything this kind of story suggests how inflated and bizarre the property market in China has become. Even the word bubble may be understating what is happening. A massive misallocation of capital is taking place with the lack of transparency and corruption making this possible, which will very likely affect long term development....

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On June 30, 2008, oil prices hit an high of $140. Because of the opaqueness of the oil futures markets that help set the price of oil, very little is known about the different players in that market. Because of increasing demands for public scrutiny of such spikes in the market and its effect on the economy, the CFTC has released information about the players in oil trading and futures markets. This list for the period when the prices reached $140 in June 2008 include banks, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, private investment arms of wealthy individuals, and airlines. Investments related to million barrels of oil were made by 219 investors. The banks include: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley which have played a role in oil markets for a long time. BP and Delta Air Lines as users of oil products. It includes Yale University endowment fund, Singapore's government, hedge funds Brevan Howard and D.E. Shaw & Co., pension funds for Texas teachers, Cascade Investment LLC (the investment firm of Bill Gates), and the Danish pension fund ATP....

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Because of the proliferation of information and content on the internet, it is the services that help users navigate the content that do well not the content producers. This is one of the big reasons for the continuing failure of AOL and Yahoo. U.S. onine advertising went up to $31.3 billion in 2011 from 2010, according to eMarketer. Yahoo's share of U.S. online advertising will decline to 11% in 2011 from 16.1% in 2009. And AOL's dropped to 2.7% from 4.4%, according to eMarketer. The average cost to reach one thousand views on Yahoo in July 1998 was $25 per thousand, it is $6.50 in July 2011, and was $7.65 in July 2010, according to SQUAD Webcosts. Rob Norman, CEO of WPP PLC's GroupM North America, says he is really skeptical about the value Yahoo brings. He sees it as mostly commoditized inventory, and little that has a unique value to users. Analysts say that over time this problem of falling ad rates with commoditizing of content and proliferation of inventories could be faced Facebook by also....

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Meg Whitman, H-P CEO, repeated her statements that a recovery was four or five years away. She sees little sales growth till 2015 and predicts losses. H-P's share price fell by 13% on Oct. 3, 2012. Whitman said in an interview that H-P has failed to invest in research and development. She was critical of lack of R&D investment under Mark Hurd. But says many of the problems go back to when Carly Fiorina was CEO in 2005 and made the acquisition of Compaq. The acquisition approach has worked poorly for H-P, with lack of R&D within H-P. H-P's financial position also worsened with the $10 billion paid by Leo Apotheker, Hurd's successor, for Autonomy Corp. Internal software systems disconnected costs from revenue, so that in 2011 field selling costs increased by $1 billion even as revenue decreased by $5 billion. A series of management changes made things worse through poor decisions, inconsistency and lack of focus, all of which will take years to correct.

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The WSJ's Peter Nicholas, Carol Lee and John McKinnon describe the events leading to the election of Obama to a second term as U.S. president. A significant move by the Obama campaign was to spend heavily in the early part of the campaign to show Romney as a predatory capitalist by focussing on his record a a private equity business executive who focussed on profits. More voters perceived Obama as caring about people like themselves. The voter turnout was also carefully executed especially for minority voters. For the first time since Mondale's loss to Reagan fewer white voters supported a presidential candidate- only 38% of the white vote went for president Obama compared to 60% for Romney. Obama's campaign focussed on protecting the middle class and working class from sharp spending cuts. Voters major issue was the economy, with unemployment at 7.9%. Yet voters largely did not hold Obama responsible for the economy and considered Wall Street and the previous George W. Bush administration responsible for the events leading to the 2008 financial crisis....

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This NYT editorial on Nov. 23, 2012, points out the importance of a forward looking Britain that has a needed voice in the affairs of the European Union, and positive engagement with the nations in the eurozone that make up its largest trading partner. Roger Carr, head of the British Confederation of Industry, made just such a call saying British engagement with the rest of Europe was "the linchpin of our wider global trade ambitions." The danger now is that because of missteps in the managing of affairs in the EU, including the hasty setup of the euro currency without proper safeguards for debt of individual countries and the strict fiscal arrangements imposed by Germany that stifle the chance of growth, the mood in Britain is now shifting towards exit from the EU. An Opinion/Observer poll suggests a referendum held today is likely to win an yes vote for Britain to leave the EU, a huge mistake for British interests. A referendum is expected to be scheduled for 2015.

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The U.S. Senate voted 51 to 49 on a Democratic party measure for further reductions in 2012 Social Security payroll taxes for workers and employers, including a surtax on incomes over $1 million. A measure supported by the Republican party to pay for the payroll tax cut by reducing the Federal payrolls was defeated, with half the Republicans voting against it. Democrats hope to use this issue to show Republicans favor the rich over the middle class, as the payroll tax cut benefits most Americans. Polls show Americans by a large majority see Republican policies favoring the rich. A New York Times/CBS poll in October showed 7 of 10 Americans feel this way. Pollster Geoff Garin says the income inequality issue is beginning to override other issues including antigovernment feeling. This is one way in which the Occupy Wall Street Movement's slogan of "the 99 percent" has resonated with U.S. public opinion. The Democratic party sees this as an opportunity to define the campaign issues for 2012, with Republicans running for reelection cautious about being seen this way....

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Jan Corzine will tell the House Agriculture Committee in hearings today in prepared testimony: "I simply don't know where the money is," and that "there were an extraordinary number of transactions during MF Global's last few days." Trustees looking at MF Global liquidation say about $1.2 billion is missing from customer accounts. MF Global made extraordinary bets on European sovereign debt of Italy, Spain and Portugal and other countries of over $6 billion. He says he reduced the leverage of the firm from 37 to 1 in early 2010 to 30 to 1 in late 2011. He says there were discussions where his strategy was debated and that it was prudent strategy to make these investments. He lobbied the CFTC on the issue of whether there should be a ban on futures firms swapping customer funds for higher yielding assets such as government bonds, because these transactions would benefit futures commission merchants. There are questions of conflicts of interest because CFTC head Gary Gensler and Jan Corzine both worked closely at Goldman Sachs....