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Russia's State Statistics Committee says growth slowed in the second quarter of 2013 to 1.2%, declining from 1.6% in the first 3 months. Inflation is at 6.4% for August, according to the Economy Ministry. The Russian central bank has resisted lowering rates because of the inflation target of 6%. The Putin adminstration is seeking 4-5% growth, after an average annual growth rate of 7.2% from 2000-2009, during the period of high growth in Putin's first term as president and second term as prime minister. There is a slowdown in foreign investment in the Russian economy, as investors in Europe and the U.S. shift away from emerging markets in 2013. In addition to this commodity prices are declining.

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The Indonesian currency, the Rupiah, has declined by 13% in 2013- by Sept. 3. It reached a level of 11,050 rupiah for one dollar on Sept 3. Economic growth has declined to 6% for the second quarter of 2013. The depreciation of the rupiah is likely to increase inflation significantly and affect the consumer spending boom in Indonesia. Indonesia had a $2.3 billion trade deficit in July 2013 after a continuing surge in imports. This will affect car prices and prices of international brands popular in the country. Toyota set the rate at 9500 rupiah to the dollar and plans to increase prices now that the rate has passed 11,000 rupiah.

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Blackberry employees reached a peak of over 17,000 in 2011 as the company continued to hire through 2009-2011. It was about 8000 in 2008 the first year of the financial crisis and recession and doubled in 3 years. The employee count is at 12,700 in 2013. The company was hit hard by the introduction of smartphones by Samsung and Apple. Blackberry now plans huge cuts of about 40% by the end of 2013. This shows how quickly the winds can change in the tech business field where disruptions for existing technology are the norm. A niche in the corporate business field was not sufficient to keep Blackberry from shrinking rapidly as businesses shifted to the new smartphone technology from rivals. Failure to anticipate new technologies can lead to irreversible losses. Blackberry shows the way down can be just as fast as the way up and a lost year or a wrong decision can be the difference between success and irreversible failure.

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"What the hell kind of system is this?" That is what Jim Rogers, a co-founder with George Soros of the Quantum Fund, asks as he sees Chuck Prince taking out hundreds of millions of dollars out of Citigroup, and other Citigroup executives take many more hundreds of millions of dollars out of the company. As he sees Stan O'Neal get $150 million for leaving Merrill Lynch after he ruined the company. And Frank Raines he says did worse accounting than Enron with Fannie Mae, fradulent accounting year after year, and yet Raines is walking around with millions of dollars. One can add to Rogers list, Mozilo of Countrywide who was one of the principal figures behind pushing bad mortgage deals for homeowners that profited those in the business of real estate, and he is walking around with millions. So is Citigroup's Robert Rubin if one looks at those who had reputations to preserve, and he hopes to devote his time to charites as he says in his resignation letter to Citigroup CEO Pandit. See groups and links for Mozilo and Rubin. Jim Rogers thinks Long Term Capital Management should have been allowed to fail. Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, and Geithner were behind the rescue of LTCM. In the worst case scenario the economy would have recovered from a LTCM collapse, and the intervening period of dislocation would have sent a strong signal to financial institutions about excesses, risk taking, leverage, and put a necessary element of caution in all financial arrangements. Jim Rogers says Lehman would have lost a lot of money with an LTCM failure and it would have slowed Wall Street down for years. Some small degree of grief from time to time may be a normal part of any economic system, especially with excesses of one type or another, just as it is for the human condition, and may be away for the system to protect itself from bigger dangers by addressing and controlling the excesses. By eliminating this grief one may be subjecting the system to bigger and more life threatening stresses later on, as these excesses assume an exaggerated form. ...

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The India-Pakistan-Afghanistan issues are still framed in the old way in terms of communalism, cold war then and the war on terrorism now. These policies were a legacy of the colonial policies of an earlier empire designed to preserve foreign rule, with a policy of perpetuating divisions between communties on religious and other lines. Modernization, the spread of mass communications that makes possible the reduction of prejudice and division by assimilating different values and beliefs into acommon aspiration for progress and better living standards, and the spread of education, commerce, and technological progress, create the conditions that should put this behind us. Put behind us communalism, and the political and military structures of communal states. Pakistan needs to be transformed from a communal state with a military structure designed to preserve that state - resulting in conflicts with its neighbors- into a state that represents a community and a religion, but in all other ways seeks peaceful coexistence and economic integration with the rest of South Asia. A good example of this is Mexico with its own culture, language and religion (Spanish Catholicism), and Canada with its own bilingual French-English heritage and British political structures and allegiances, both arriving at an arrangement of peaceful coexistence and economic integration with the USA with its different political structures and culture and sporadic conflicts with Canada and Mexico. This has promoted the peaceful development of the North American region. The US involvement in the region can then be seen as a misguided effort that continued framing the region's differences in the old British way or in a cold war stereotyping, first with John Foster Dulles in the India-Pakistan conflicts, and then with Reagan in the Afghan anti-Soviet war. This has worked to exacerbate the conditions that led to slow progress in the drive for economic development, infrastructure building and modernization in all of South Asia. Just as in Europe, as in North America, the processes of economic development work best when a policy of inclusiveness and integration of different communities and people is followed. ...

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Citadel, a large hedge fund headed by Kenneth Griffin is having problems, with its flagship fund down 35% this year. And the rumor mill saying some of its funds are down 60% and Fed Reserve officials are visiting the fund. Citadel is leveraged 3 to 1 and this is down from higher levels . Ironically Griffin has been known for buying other companies assets for pennies on the dollar, including E Trade and hedge funds Sowood Capital. And where did Griffin get started? He started trading in his dorm room at Harvard in the eighties. The hedge fund $1.7 trillion industry is facing a shakeout. It has already lost $180 billion in the August-October 2008 period and some hedge funds face collapse.

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Toyota reported a 77% drop in earnings in the first quarter of 2011, with a large loss in the Japanese operations. The strong yen trading at 81 yen to the dollar is a significant factor. And for the first time Toyota's CFO Satoshi Ozawa said "we have reached the limits of profitable Japan based production at 80 yen to the dollar." Japanese operatios lost $2.4 billion. Honda reported a 38% drop in earnings for the 1st quarter.

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In a complete reversal of the situation in 2012 when Spain's and Italy's bond yields reached about 8%, Spain's 10 year government bond yields declined to 2.579% on June 8, 2014, according to Tradeweb. The ECB's efforts to fight deflation by injecting money into the financial system in 2014, and investor search for higher yields, is driving up the price of Spain's bonds and reducing yields below that of U.S. Treasurys for the first time. The period it took for this to happen- just 2 years!

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Under new proposed changes carbon emissions permits would be sold to industry and heavier polluters would have to pay more. And to make it fair to European companies exporters in other countries like China would have to buy these carbon permits to be able to export to Europe. There is similiar discussion about this in the USA which expects caps on greenhouse gas emissions in a few years. These changes wouldn't go into effect till 2013 at the earliest and industry will be trying to create a level playing field by then. Countries like China and India because they are developing have been exempt from the greenhouse caps under the Kyoto Protocol which expire 2012. Under the Kyoto Protocol which Europe signed and the USA did not sign, European companies are giving carbon permits free to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gas every year, the heavier polluters have to buy the permits from the ones that pollute less creating an incentive for companies to reduce emisssions.

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Increasing regulation on Mexico's telephone monopoly of America Movil, and Telmex, part of Carlos Slim's telephone business in Mexico. Mexico's three main parties have agreed to increase regulation on the monopoly to reduce the high charges paid by Mexico's telecom users. Estimates by OECD show Mexicans paying an extra $13 billion a year from 2005 to 2009 because of the monopoly and high prices. The administration of Pena Nieto made controlling telecom and other monopolies an important part of its program. To get an idea of the extent of the monopolistic control - 70 percent of the cellphone market and 65 percent of fixed lines are controlled by companies run by Slim.  AT&T is now a competitor and is helping bring down high cellphone plan prices.

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This story in the WSJ shows how the Phase 1 deal between the U.S. and China was negotiated in November and December 2019. As a bargaining chip for negotiations on a Phase 2 deal the U.S. has preserved tariffs of 25% on $250 billion in imports from China, and the reduced tariff  of 7.5% on $120 billion of imports. In Phase 1 Mr. Trump convinced the Chinese leadership that he was serious about going ahead with further tariffs to cover all of China's exports to the U.S.by a December deadline. This was also Mr. Kushner's message to the Chinese ambassador. In talks China gave easy concessions on agricultural imports and offered to buy twice the amount of soyabeans and other food imports- which helps Mr. Trump with farmers in the U.S. At the same time difficult concessions on enforcement to change subsidies to Chinese state owned companies were put off. China formally says it is an issue of Chinese sovereignty. It is also seen as a part of the Chinese business model that is working and China is in no hurry to change this. It has offered to step back from asking foreign companies to transfer technology in exchange for market access. On technology issues and subsidies the tough negotiating issues on which the U.S. has insisted for changes, China has held back. Phase Two is not likely to happen at least not till after the election, as China wants to be able to develop its own technology rivaling the U.S. and Europe, without the kind of formal enforcement the U.S. is demanding. In the long run it plans a shift to an economy that is less dependent on the U.S. for imports which may be in the interest of both countries, as U.S. manufacturing has shriveled over two decades hurting American jobs as a result.   ...

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A new solar module factory in Freiberg, near Dresden, Germany, with the latest technology, requiring workers to only supervise the manufacturing process, is shown in this report in DW.com. It is cheaper to make higher performance solar panels that produce 20% more electricity in Germany than to import from China. This could be a global trend in automated supply chains. This is a technological shift says the CEO because more efficient production technology requires less resources and fewer steps in the manufacturing process. Key components such as solar cells are also made nearby in Leipzig in eastern Germany, 90 miles away.    This report shows the interesting changes that are underway. In 2018 the factory building in Freiberg now being used for solar modules was left empty after German manufacturer solar company Solarworld lost a price war with Chinese competitors. Today this solar company Meyer Burger brings new jobs and excitement to Freiberg and the region. By 2026 plans are for it to make 5 GW of modules annually in Germany. Meyer Burger made the heterojunction SmartWire technology machines that made solar modules. In 2020 it decided to make solar modules instead of selling its equipment to others, using its own proprietary technology. Thinking has changed. CEO Erfurt says it is complete nonsense to transport solar modules halfway across the world from China, they should be made where the products are used as it is energy infrastructure. Transport costs 10% of cost, and new technology is constantly being developed and costs decreasing with technology advances. He adds that this is how energy sovereignty can be achieved. In 2021 the demand is expected at 209 GW worldwide. Erfurt expects it to be 500 GW in 2025. Large demand that will now be met locally in the regions themselves- in Spain, in Germany, and in India.   ...