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After years of monetary easing under former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to boost the economy since the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed plans to modestly increase rates in December 2015. The broad measure of unemployment including part-timers and discouraged workers dropping out has fallen from a high of 17.1% to 9.9%. The economic recovery is still slow and inflation below 2% for a long period, letting the the Fed set a very gradual trajectory for raising rates to accomodate downward pressures on the economy. GDP growth is lower than in previous recoveries, and after tax incomes adjusted for inflation up 1.8% in this recovery compared to 3.3% in the three previous recoveries.

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A House budget bill passed in Texas would cut an already lean budget- because of years of prudent fiscal policies- by $23 billion from the current level of state and federal spending over the next 2 year budget cycle. This is a reduction of 12.3%. The budget makes large cuts in public education, healthcare for the poor, highways, prisons and state parks. It takes away full day preschool, cuts teacher incentive pay, and reduces scholarships for college students by two-thirds.

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A Wall Street Journal report -after interviews with former TEPCO engineers and executives- throws more light on the failure of power and cooling at certain reactors in Fukushima Daiichi that led to the nuclear meltdown. The difference not grasped at the time turned out to be the critical difference between the reactors where electricity to cool the reactors worked and where the the electricity failed. Of the 10 nuclear reactors at Fukushima, only the 4 with the earlier Mark 1 design failed. These reactors were the earliest reactors installed by G.E. beginning in the 1970's. The Mark 1 reactors were serviced by an American engineering firm called Ebasco. Ebasco designed the reactor buildings really small so that they would be compact and economical. Because of the small size of the reactor buildings the generators providing the electricity supplies to the Mark 1 reactors could not be installed inside the reactor buildings made of fortified concrete and were installed in buildings outside lacking similiar protection. These outhoused generator buildings could not withstand the tsunami, resulting in the loss of power and cooling for these reactors, and leading eventually to the meltdown. The reactors with the Mark II and later designs were installed along with the generators in the same fortified concrete buildings, and these survived the tsunami without disruption in power supplies and cooling. This critical difference was noted by older TEPCO executives who were intervewed, but nothing was done about this because of the added cost of making the major modifications that would be needed. The regulatory system also failed to catch the problems with the original blueprints and design for housing the reactors and generators for cooling reactors. In 2001 the original 30 year operating permit for the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear reactor was renewed, and again in 2011 for another ten year period. Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency is part of the industry ministry, and not kept separate and independent from the nuclear industry, a structural flaw. The ministry considered its job to be promoting nuclear power, and increasing nuclear power from 30% in 2010 to 50% of Japan's electricity output. One inspection official says fundamental design and construction of the reactors from a 30-40 year old design were never looked at in safety reviews by regulators approving the extensions. He even goes to the point of saying that the reviews focussed on things like pipes and fittings, missing entirely the safety of the outhouse buildings housing the generators. One of the top TEPCO engineers says this difference stood out like a sore thumb when did a walk through during inspections. He failed to get the support from fellow engineers and Tepco executives for changes that would add to the cost....

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Karl Rove, advisor to President George W. Bush, and organizer behind American Crossroads political action committee, says the election will be decided by the higher support for Romney among independents and the high turnout of Republican voters. The prediction for the voter turnout among Republicans is 36% Republican vs. 35% Democratic, according to Gallup. This compares with the 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004, and 39% Democratic 29% Republican in 2008. The early and absente ballot voting advantage has significantly gone down almost by half for Democrats as more Republicans cast early votes in swing states like Ohio. Closing statements and crowds also appear to confirm this trend. Rove sees this as 51% to 48% favoring the Republicans. The addition of swing states - Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania also appears to suggest that a broader movement is underway that is happening right now in the final week before the election on Nov. 6, 2012. Rove focusses on the numbers. A behavioural assessment shows the importance in this campaign of the centrist position adopted by Romney in the closing months of the campaign; the selection of Ryan which gave Romney support from the Republican conservative base so that he could talk freely about his record in the liberal state of Massachusetts to independent voters and women, and most important the clear message to voters focussed on a five point plan to get the economy recovery were critical in shaping these numbers....

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This editorial in the WSJ reminds readers of China's warning about North Korea's nuclear weapons in April 2015, and says the nuclear agreements with North Korea never worked. It sees a similiar situation with the nuclear agreement the Obama administration is working out with Iran.

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This example of how Forest Laboratories hoped to market an antidepressant Lexapro to doctors through financial incentives to prescribe the drug is detailed in a document that was made public by the Senate's Special Committee on Aging. The document is the "Lexapro Fiscal 2004 Marketing Plan." Forest licensed Celexa from Lundeck of Denmark and brought it to the US market in 1998. Then as the drug's patent life was short it tinkered with it and developed a new version calling it Lexapro and introduced it in the US market in 2002. Withits marketing effort Lexapro had $2.3 billion in sales in 2008, while all the time generic versions of Celexa and other durgs in its class sell for afraction of the Lexapro price. For instance amonth's supply of 5 millgram tablets of Lexapro costs $87.99 at drugstore.com, while a month's supply of generic version of Prozac is $14.99. Forest spends a lot compared to its larger rivals on sending money to doctor's. In the plan $34.7 million was to go to pay 2,000 psychiatrists and primary care doctors to deliver 15,000 marketing lectures to their peers that year. $36 million was to go to providing lunch to doctors in their offices. Asks Senator Herb Kohl, a Democrat from Wisconsin who is chairman of the Committee on Aging- "is the line between medical education and marketing blurred." For these companies there was no line. ...

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Blinder, a Professor of Economics at Princeton, and former Vice Chairman of the Fed, always supported Sheila Bair's efforts at FDIC to help reduce forclosures. He says, Secretary Paulson has released little of the TARP money for reducing foreclosures and helping homeowners and none of it went to buying up troubled mortgage assets. So he argues the nations mortgage crisis, which is at the root of its problems goes on. The government that gave us Katrina and the Iraq war will now give us the TARP program, which apart from supporting the banks has done little to address the other serious problems that it had been approved for. And no conditions were made with the banks that required them to continue lending, all it accomplished is unfreeze the credit markets, a serious objective but clearly not sufficient to address the underlying causes of this crisis. Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard, has also repeatedly this year, from the early months of 2008, called for help to homeowners to reduce foreclosures. Little in the way of his counsel is being heeded, even though he has represented Republican administrations including Reagan and Bush in the past. Clearly too many conflicting interests stalled any progress, and the repeated crises since summer left Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman more of a role putting out fires or forestalling dangerous developments in financial markets, than setting serious policy measures in place. ...

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Leslie Gelb says US should focus on its strengths, on the areas that it can build on to come up with something of enduring value and not focus all one's energies on situations and troublespots that siphon off a lot of American energies. This is a good idea and should be something that policymakers at State and the National Security Council and advisers to the President could keep in mind. There is alot to be said about the Truman example of the Marshall Plan in building western Europe after the war. At the same time its not as clear cutthat troublespots and the difficult work can be avoided. Was the Berlin airlift a troublespot? And Truman had little time to respond to the invasion of South Korea from the north, acrisis he would have chosen to avoid, if he had the choice. Instead he was drawn into along drawn out war on the Korean peninsula. Still the idea that you want to save your energies and not dissipate them in conflicts which can't clearly be won is a useful one. The Korean war was fought on conventional terms so the US could point to success years later in South Korea. But for conflicts fought in the jungles of Vietnam or in the remote mountainous terrain of Afghanistan, limited objectives and willingness to consider history, customs, and local tribal cultures is very constructive. ...

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Admiral Mullen chairma joint cheifs confirms most of what the British Ambassador in Afghanistan s saying about deteriorating prospects in the country. He understands the heroin growing issue brought up by US counter narcotics experts in the NYT recently, by saying "we've got to impact pretty significantly, pretty fast on the poppy issue". He is aware that poppy growing is abundant in the south and in Helmand province pours upwards of $100 million to finance the Taliban. General McKiernan who heads NATO forces there says that NATO forces would be authorized to attack narcotics bosses, their soldiers and infrastructure, if they are linked to movement of weapons, improvised explosives or foreign fighters in Afghanistan. Which is possibly a waiting mode till more troops are sent to Afghanistan as policing this rugged mountanous country with tribal regions and loyalties complicated by the narcotics layer and widespread corruption in the Karzai government and its loss of popular support requires many more troops than are now in the country and a sustained campaign. So far the US and European forces possibly outnumbered have resisted alienating the poppy farmers in the south through land based eradication. But with more troops Mullen's new approach and Petraeus's has to shift to something like that, at the same time as they follow Petraeus's new counterinsurgency doctrine in display in Iraq to draw down the Taliban strength to its core supporters by winning other tribal factions with no hardcore loyalties over to the American side....

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A look at two crises in 1918 and 1957 of virus pandemics shows early and decisive action to prevent public from gathering and intermingling, are critical. In today's densely populated urban environments this translates into lockdowns and quarantines that are strictly enforced. The 1918 pandemic took 50 million lives worldwide, the 1957 pandemic took 1 million lives worldwide, says this report based on some estimates. MIstakes were made then and science was not as developed for vaccines and new drugs. Which is why health authorites are taking this very seriously. Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at coronavirus health crisis in relation to earlier disasters- SARS 2003 originating in China, 1957 flu epidemic, 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, to draw insights on what measures have worked best. Previous epidemics and crises provide clues on what makes things worse or better and the long term consequences of actions. The more health and safety are prioritized there is some impact on the economy. But crises have proven that the economic impact is temporary and short lived with the economy and jobs bouncing right back once the crisis has passed. The second insight is that early on in the crisis there is a great deal of uncertainty, leading to fumbled or delayed, or timid response. Sort of like lets wait for more information coming out of China, or now Italy, which happened first in February, and then again in March. Tim Adams who worked in the U.S. Treasury Department during 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, and is now the president of the Institute of International Finance, says if you look to plan a perfect response you lose valuable time. Time is of the essence. Learning to make speed the priority, to think in tranches, be visible, and worrying about how to pay for it later, is what he says he has learned from these crises response efforts. In the case of the coronavirus, some valuable time was lost becausee of the uncertainty and lack of early information, making speed and rapid comprehensive action very critical. The Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 infected over 500 million people worldwide and killed 50 million or more, including 675,000 in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. During this epidemic the Chicago public health commissioner flatly opposed closing businesses, saying worry kills people more than the epidemic. A 2007 study shows cities that took that attitude saw higher death tolls in the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918. Philadelphia waited 16 days before restricting social gatherings, St Louis took just 2 days. The result: the daily death rate from the epidemic peaked at level five or more times higher in Philadelphia than in St. Louis. Social distancing was not much of an issue then as people worked in jobs that required less contact, such as farming, fishing and forestry, as well as other jobs that did not require that contact in large offices.   ...

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The role of Super PAC's and new nominating rules in the Republican presidential primaries of 2012.

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Thomas Friedman sees the WikiLeaks information showing America paying the Pakistan army and intelligence services to be two-faced, to both fight with the Americans and at the same time support the insurgents fighting the Americans. He sees America being made the sucker in this game. And without the resources to change the region and transform it, America needs a better approach that does not waste its resources and energies.

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Mistakes to avoid in retirement, says Statman, are that after a lifetime of frugal habits to save for retirement, when one gets there he or she will spend so much less that they cannot enjoy life fully. He suggests taking a payout of 3%-4% from retirement accounts and dividends combined. Another mistake is to think one has more time to manage retirement accounts, and he warns that this is a bad idea as one cannot beat the market, and it is important not to take risks in retirement. Other mistakes are to ignore how important healthy living is at this point.

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The faulty intelligence reports on Iraq cast a shadow over any new intelligence agency findings about Iran and nuclear weapons development.

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Freeman contrasts the speeches given by Obama and Trump, one in Cairo after becoming president, and the other in Riyadh. Freeman says Obama did not give enough credit to American leadership and progress on women's rights, and was not critical of Iran during a period in which sectarian strife has led to the situation in Syria and Iraq. 

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Proposals by economists Rajan, Stein and Kashyap on financial catastrophe insurance, and bonuses held in escrow, as corrective measures after learning from the 2008 global financial crisis.

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With higher growth overseas multinational companies are increasingly investing outside their local base country. Germany has strong trade unions and German companies are investing outside Germany, in Eastern Europe and other countries. This is leading to a shift in investment to countries in Eastern Europe, China, India, etc. where there is growth and labor costs are attractive. The multinational companies still do a lot of the advanced research and manufacturing in their home base and say the growth overseas makes them stronger financially to continue to invest at home. The shift may also be due to the trade union factor- an example being the UAW union in the U.S., rigid labor rules, and other distortions from high wages and benefits that cannot be supported in the global economy. This includes distortions such as the Jobs Bank in the Detroit auto industry. Similiar situations exist in Europe where unions are strong and there is not enough of the flexibility needed for companies to grow in the global economy....