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Wildfires burn on 1.4 million acres in California as it seeks help from Australia and other places. These fires are the second largest in its history.

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A report by the Longevity Science Panel for the UK says the life expectancy gap between the richest and poorest neighborhoods in England has increased since 2001. In 2001 this was 7.2 years, by 2015 this increased to 8.4 years. The government points to cancer rates, the Longevity Science Panel report authors say income inequality was the main factor. To do this report LSP looked at data from the Office for National Statistics for 2015, which divided England into 33,000 residential areas and rated them on factors ranging from income levels, health, education and crime. This report points out that men and women from the bottom fifth were 80% more likely than the top fifth to die in any given year. 

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Why Vietnam is gaining acceptance as a high tech and tech outsourcing hub in Asia after India, China and the Philipines. Wages are lower and Vietnam has a youg labor pool with a focus on math and science in the universities. Intel's decision to build a chip plant in Vietnam and interest from software companies suggests Vietnam will be a site for outsourcing competing with others in Asia. English language skills are a limitation as compared to India and Philipines.

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This WSJ report shows how the debt ceiling negotiation were conducted and the process that made it possible to reach an agreement since the State of the Union address by president Biden on February 7, 2023. It started with Biden getting unanimity right on the floor of Congress during his speech about protecting Medicare and Social Security. The Republican strategy was to pass the legislation on spending that did not specify where cuts were to be made yet used 2022 spending levels with a 1% increase. The deal was to be for three years and passed the spending bill with an increase inthe debt ceiling. Till that time the Democrats decided to not enter negotiations.  Biden and McCarthy then had to choose who would represent their side in the long negotiation process that lay ahead till June 5. Progressive Democrats called for invoking the 14th Amendment that allows the government to continue functioning and pay its bills. Biden chose not to take that route. Respect for the other side, a prepared script are an important point in negotiations. To get results something even more important is essential flexibility and a plan, Plan B. Trust began to develop between McCarthy and Biden. Biden and McCarthy did not any time engage in acrimonious description of the other side. At one point when Biden was in Hiroshima for the G7 meetings Ricchetti on the Biden side and Graves on the Republican side began to feel the frustration. Biden decided to fly home early from Hiroshima. He was constantly in touch with his negotiators Steve Ricchetti, a trusted aide, and a cabinet official the Budget Director Shalanda Young. Graves a long time trusted adviser of McCarthy headed the negotiations for McCarthy.  Shalanda Young and Garrett Graves are both from Louisiana and Graves says he used to work out with Young's dad in the same area. This had a positive effect. It also reduced the tensions in the negotiations so that it could be said this was the calmest negotiation from either side that has been seen in the US  for a long time and bodes well for America's future and for its people, far beyond any concessions made by either party.  Biden made clear at the outset what he could accept without leaving it hidden- he would agree to some work requirements, he would not agree to work requirements for Medicaid. Others in the Democratic party conveyed how distraught they were with efforts to impose stringent requirements for federal food aid during a cost of living crisis when the Republican positions ruled out any new taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In the end Republicans agreed to keep spending limits for 2023 for two more years into 2025 when they would be increased by 1%. Democrats offered to cut (Income Tax) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) spending to increase IRS staffing from $80 billion to $70 billion. Biden said "nobody got everything they wanted." It would have to be passed in Congress with the support of moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, with members holding extreme positions among Republicans and Democrats opposing. The two parties coming together after a long time to meet the real challenges ahead for the American people. ...

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Comment by a former Tory leader, Sir Ian Duncan Smith, on negotiations with the European Union's Ursula Leyen, show how much the term sovereignty has become the word on which everything depends. Smith said on December 10 about the EU demands that Britain adhere to EU environmental and other rules after leaving the EU, "either Britain is sovereign, or it is not."  The word sovereign is discussed in this context in this Times analysis. The word comes from the old French word "sovereinete" during the period when the King's authority was being contested by feudal lords in 16th century France. The Oxford dictionary defines it as the authority of a state to govern itself, and to do this without outside interference. Tory leaders such as David Davis and others including Smith see this as meaning making your own laws. For the European Union to insist on its laws being primary and British law asked to conform with EU law making it secondary, would not only be outside interference, but also divided authority. Older French and British political philosophers Hobbes and Rousseau see this as divided authority. Even though the meaning has changed in modern times, the essential definition in the Oxford Dictionary remains undivided authority. Which is why these Tory leaders insist on the original definition as the right one. Behind the wrangling there is the sense among Leavers that Britain could do better in economic terms by setting its own direction, and doing business its way. How would a new economic power in India by 2030 affect Britain, would it create many more opportunities for Britain to grow because of its history and cultural ties. Could the relationship with the U.S. provide more opportunities for growth? What about French indifference and even disdain of Britain, does Britain have other options? Isn't the European Union merely a Franco-German alliance led politically by France and economically by Germany, and propelled by their three wars since 1871, with a bunch of European countries added in, and what has Britain got to do with it? Closer to the negotiations with Leyen there is also the question - isn't France trying to make certain with its demand that Britain not violate EU law, that Britain's ingenuity and free wheeling spirit outside the European Union does not let it grow faster than France? Where one gets Boris Johnson's immediate reply that Britain is better off not being stuck inside "EU's regulatory orbit."   At the other end of the world you have India with "Atman Nirbhar Bharat" calling for a self-reliant economy and taking the time for transitioning out of the trade relationship with China, at short term cost and long term advantage. Britain is closely watching India as it makes big strides in developing infrastructure, in renewable energy, and setting a bold vision for the future. Even France is mapping out a pathway to self-reliant economy as it looks at ways to bring production home after the pandemic. The pandemic has only reinforced the drive to be self-reliant. ...

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This is a story of missteps in retailing that can lead to loss of as many jobs as when large automobile plants close-about 65000 jobs in retail at big box store Bed Bath & Beyond in 2019 down to 32,000 by 2022, and with all stores closing in 2023 all jobs lost. Some of these jobs were replaced with the growth of Amazon in online retailing and warehousing shipment, others permanently lost. Jordyn Holman and Lauren Hirsch of the NYT explain how a major retailer collapses into bankruptcy in 2023. This retail chain started in 1971 thrived on its two founder's concept of building a customer base around a store that piled high the volume of merchandise selection for bedsheets, towels, pillows, kitchen appliances, and offered 20% coupons on brand items. It survived the 2009 crisis and by 2012 its stores were up to 1100 from 350 ten years earlier in 2000. This was a result of 4 acquisitions including Buy Buy Baby and Harmon Stores Its collapse is a textbook case of what can happen. Its financial foundations were weakened by a bond offering $1.5 billion, going into the debt market for the first time.   From its success attracting activist investors and the company according to analysts trying to fend them off. The bond offering was the first step to impending disaster. In 2019 three activist investors won a fight to appoint 4 new board members and hire a new CEO Mr. Tritton from Target.  The big change happening just before the pandemic was the complete change of management with the new CEO. Stores that had made the decisions on what merchandise to buy based on location were no longer allowed to do so. Some stores were closed and there were layoffs reducing employee morale. The big change came to the 20% coupons which was the unique feature of the store getting people back into the store. Coupons were cut back as profits declined. The pandemic introduced new elements of surprise. The supply chains were disrupted, and just at that time new management decided to shift to private labels to increase margins and sales. Kitchen Aid was replaced with private labels. As a result of supply chain disruptions the stores could not be stocked leading to customers moving away, a crisis was brewing. At that very time something concealed the crisis from view. The Biden administration checks to support people during the pandemic led to a sudden increase in sales, a one time spurt. Then as suddenly as the spurt months later a complete dropoff in sales. Management closed more stores, suppliers who were not paid demanded to be prepaid leading to stores being only partly stocked. Bed Bath & Beyond collapsed as its coupons were dropped, its stores poorly stocked, no brand merchandise such as Kitchen Aid, and decisions made at the wrong time including the debt load all taking a toll at once. By the end of 2022 bankruptcy loomed. In April 2023 the company declared bankruptcy after failed efforts to raise additional financing. The same changes also hit Best Buy, another big box retailer, which managed the changes to internet buying by shifting sales to the healthcare sector, and continuing to build on it strengths as a retailer of motivated employees with knowledge of the electronic merchandise. It made it right through the pandemic without the changes in management that happened at Bed Bath & Beyond. ...

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  A new German party called BSW,  Bundnis (Association) Sarah Wagenknecht, means Germany nationally could see a smaller Social Democrats party in parliament making way for the socialists who want to keep out migrants. Across East Germany a new party is challenging the AfD from the socialist side getting the protest vote against pro-migrant policies.The socialist BSW party is taking votes from the SPD and DIe Linke Left, from Free Democrats and Greens in the state parliamentary elections in East German states of Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg. Nationally SPD may be 15-20%, BSW 10%, and CDU 30%, AfD 10-15%, FDP 10%, Greens 10% in a new shape for German parliamentary representation. The AfD and far right in Germany is challenged by the BSW with both parties opposing policies that led to large scale migrant flows into Germany of Angela Merkel.  BSW is the socialist party of Sarah Wagenknecht which is opposed to migrants entering the country as it distracts from tackling the problems of the working class in Germany and burdens public services when needs are greater among the local communities.  It sees the ruling Christian Democrats, Social Democrat and Free Demcorats, Greens, as out of touch with the problems of working class Germans struggling to make a living. BSW also opposes the wars in Ukraine and Gaza for the same reasons as it takes away resources that are better used to tackle problems at home. The AfD party also opposes migrants but is seen as feeding on the grievances of people of old east German communist state who feel left behind by the reunification of Germany. As a socialist party BSW is for addressing problems of inequality and poverty, childcare, cost of living action, housing, and many of the problems of the working class. Mette Frederiksen Danish prime minister has combined socialist ideas with anti-migrant position in Denmark. A similar position is being taken in the US by the Biden Harris administration in the US by closing the Border with Mexico.  Who is Sahra Wagenknecht and the BSW? Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht or Association of Sarah Wagenknecht is a socialist party that grew out of Sarah Wagenknecht's own experience growing up in the socialist state of the German Democratic Republic during her formative years in East Berlin.  Born to a Iranian father who disappeared in Iran, and a German mother she was raised by her grandparents. She was active in the socialist parties Die Linke group in parliament since 2000. She received her bachelors degree in philosophy and New German Literature at East Berlin Humboldt University. Followed by MA at Groningen University in philosophy of Marx-Hegel and a doctoral degree from TU Chemnitz in Economics. She was member of parliament in the Bundestag and leader of the Die Linke group. The twin 2009 financial crisis by banks pursuing excessive leverage profits and unethical dealings, the euro crisis that followed of state actors misrepresenting their finances, the rent seeking attitudes of finance, pharma, tech monopolies and other industries has led her along with Italian economist Mazzucato to question the existing system. ...

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MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

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Are there costs or are there savings from the Obama health care bill? Does it affect jobs and how? The Congressional Budget Office says the health care law will save $230 billion in ten years based on a whole set of calculations and assumptions. Commonsense and basic math leads others to question how spending $930 billion on insuring 32 million Americans could end up with significant savings. The different view argues that the Budget Office erred in making some calculations, by counting $70 billion in premiums from long term care because they would be used to pay benefits later, omitted $115 billion in spending to adminster the law, and omitted $208 billion needed to prevent scheduled reductions in Medicare payments to doctors. The money needed on the Stimulus, on two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the uncertain prospects of the US economy in the longer term till debt and other issues are resolved, injects the critical element of difficult choices and priorities. If state and local budgets are severely strained in 2011-2012 would that require federal help and will there be other needs that will have to be met by the federal government that are critical such as another unexpected downturn, or a resolution of unresolved bad debt at the large US banks There is also a sense that the health care law does not do enough to reduce the cost of health care that will be needed over the next decade so that other priorities are not neglected. Both parties are not up to the task in this respect for running the country's finances withot using the numbers to tell different stories....

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Residents of Detroit- almost all residents- in the three county metropolitan area see their economy in ruins, according to aWashington Post-Kaiser Foundation-Harvard University poll of Detroiters. At the same time 63% of Detroiters feel optimistic that things will change for the better. Detroit's dependence on the auto industry has led to a marked precipitous decline with the highest unemployment in the country. Michigan has 14.7% unemployment and Detroit has 16.7%, the highest in the country. Seven of ten residents see a revitalization of the auto industry needed to rejuvenate Detroit, and three fourths of residents polled say this is likely to happen, even though the state government is looking to diversify the economy. A senior economist at the Upjohn Institute, an independent research group in Kalamazoo, Michigan, says creating a new diversified economy which includes biotech, medical, green energy in addition to electric cars and other fields in auto, will take years. One, two or even five years won't be enough to replace all the jobs lost in the auto industry, it may take adecade or longer. Some workers will be retrained in new areas, others will move and some will take lower wages at new jobs. Because of the area divided along racial lines with the black city neighborhoods and the white suburbs, the pain while distributed throughout the region, is seeing a marked deterioration in the life in the city. Governor Granholm says the state governmet has spent $400 million to help enroll 100,000 people in retraiing programs to become nurses, medical technicians, truck drivers and welders. Granholm says her office has helped create 163,000 jobs in 2009....

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Prof. Cusumano of MIT, says that with the loss of Apple's Steve Jobs, the company has lost a great visionary, and it will be difficult for Apple's new CEO Time Cook to make up for this loss. Cusumano has talked to many Apple employees in 2013-2014, and is writing a book on innovation. In this piece Chen and Richtel point out the ways Tim Cook is trying to fill the role Jobs filled, by assembling a group of people within the company who can play the pioneering role for new products, and making new acquisitions such as the Beats acquisition to bring in outside talent. Cook pushed for the introduction of the iPad Air, which now accounts for 60% of all iPad sales. The constant push for the magic in new products that Steve Jobs obsessed with down to details, will be missing. Jobs met daily with design chief Jonathan Ive for lunch at the Cupertino headquarters. Cook meets Ive 3 times a week. And Jobs pulled all the pieces of the new product together in a way that others will have difficulty doing. Cook has brought a different dimension to leadership at Apple by talking about Apple in terms of "advancing humanity," talking about his own personal experiences in the South, and seeing racial discrimination barriers for minorities. He was challenged recently to address issues of working conditions at Apple supplier factories in China. Cook is bringing some manufacturing back to the U.S. with building of new plants in Arizona and Texas. These are areas which were gaps in Jobs record, which Cook is filling gradually, and asking shareholders, customers, to be patient....

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Clearly a company thats privately held like Chrysler now is under Cerberus and under Feinberg's direction can provide the incentives, compensation and equity that others can't match. Feinberg was talking to Jim Press since this summer, and leaves Toyota at a time when it doesn't have any respected American face. Its surprising that his new role at Toyota even as a Board member left him away from the day to day operations that he loved doing and was unhappy about his role as mainly a public affairs person. At the same time the events in the credit markets and the broader economy also point to the urgency of having the right leadership in place. This is reflected in the difficulty financing $10 billion of the remaining Chrysler debt in the credit markets with investors reluctant to invest in prevailing market conditions, thus Cerberus and Daimler each took $2 billion in debt to complete the buyout. Top priorities for Chrysler getting the same concessions that the UAW gave GM and Ford in 2005 for health benefits. Tom LaSorda will lead these negotiations as well as look after plant operations and purchasing. Jim Press will lead the effort for product strategy, marketing and shaping Chrysler's new dealer network from the oversized network of 3700 dealers that it has become over the years. As this was his passion at Toyota and he has a decent credibility with Dealers. He also brings knowledge of the Toyota way of constant improvement which he applied in marketing and at the customer level in addition to its well known application in manufacturing....

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Chapman points out that the Phillips curve did not hold in low inflation years since 1948 when low inflation was accompanied by low unemployment and higher growth rates. It did hold in the higher inflation years after 1948 when higher inflation was accompanied by high unemployment and low growth rates. So can the Federal Reserve hold onto the idea of a Philips curve hoping that higher inflation will somehow lead to lower unemployment and higher growth as it lowers interest rates. What it may end up doing is hurting the dollar, while increasing inflation and leading to lower growth. Without the demand for Treasurys the way there is now because of the confidence in the dollar, interest rates would rise and domestic savings would be diverted to service the debt, and output would be lower and prices higher. McKinnon at Stanford and others have been arguing the case for a strong dollar in the WSJ recently. Chapman is accepting that interest rate cuts may help the economy but only by a little bit in the current situation and temporarily because there are too many forces at work pushing the economy into recession. So the comparitively small dividends from interest rate cuts should not be allowed to give up the bigger dividends from having international confidence in the dollar not erode. Especially as the current market imbalances cannot be fixed by the mechanism of interest rates, and its not the Fed's job to fix the considerable challenges facing the economy today which will take time to work out and require political leadership from Congress and a new President....

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Kotter on how projecting a sense of urgency to others and getting people motivated and eager to get something done comes not from putting up a lot of intellectual stuff and power point slides but by talking to people on a level where one relates to them, with stories they can relate to, with humor that relaxes them, with human behaviour that makes one feel comfortable with the speaker and make it easy to relate to what he is saying. Anything new? It may be just that we have been told for so long about the merits of a lot of organized powerpoints in doing things and it may be that middle and higherups in the organization have been trained to expect them so that you better have them or you'd be considered unprepared and frowned on. But in reality it seems perfectly natural that people can relate to a speaker who can talk to you rather than have you look at a screen for a long time, its how we as humans were trained to receive information until this new wave of slides and powerpoints came along. Not that they are not useful when used in the appropriate manner or situation to convey information for instance. But in persuading people, in motivating them as well as getting them to take action in a particular direction a few organized and purposely summarized powerpoints suffice if used at all, and then the rest of the time the speaker can simply talk to the best inall of us to reach and bring out that best and turn on our inner powers for some good cause....

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How melamine a substance that causes kideney damage but also mimics protein powder was added to milk to pass inspection tests for milk for quality. And suppliers of this product did not disclose to dairy farmers what they had inside the packet of so called protein powder. With the relative newness of dairy cows to China many farmers do not know how to feed and care for dairy cows in China so that the quality of milk is low, and thus the need for substances that would help the milk go through tests for companies that tested for milk quality. These farmers were unaware and did not care as long as the milk was not returned, for what they added to the milk. And the big dairies in China like Mengniu Dairy and Nestle did not draw enough attention to this issue so that action could be taken. As for so many things in China today regulators were not on the job and failed to take any action even when suspicions were aroused. In fact for a long time dairy farmers and people in these farming communities were aware of the fact that strange substances were being added to the milk. And factories where melamine scrap was being generated such as the plastics factories in which melamine is used, were aware of increasing interest and demand for this scrap. All this was ignored till about 2300 Chinese children got hospitalized for melamine related kidney problems, at least 3 children died and tens of thousands of others were sickened. The result is that national faith in the safety of the food in China has been badly shaken....

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A three term Congressman from Kansas, Mike Pompeo, is the new CIA director in the Trump adminsitration. He is a graduate of West Point, and of Harvard Law School. During the Benghazi hearings Pompeo played an important role as a member of the House Intelligence Committee. He questioned the handling of the Benghazi embassy attack by the Obama administration, saying one thing publicly and another thing privately as the election approached in 2012. The top Democrat on the committee, Adam Schiff, says he had differences with Pompeo on the politicization of the Benghazi tragedy, but that Pompeo worked hard and is willing to "listen and engage" with others.

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Brooks point to the percentage of GDP going to consumption as having gone up from 62% between 1962 and 1980. In 2008 it was 70% of GDP and debt went up from 55 percent of national income to 133%. Financial self restraint and values of earlier generations eroded. He says the slide in economic morality affects red and blue equally, so the cultural politics organized the way it is is obsolete. There has to be a movement to restore economic values cutting across the current lines. Building a producer not a consumer economy, return to financial restraint large and small. And importantly he says, such a movement will have to take on what you might call the lobbyist ethos. The conviction that every group is entitled to every possible appropriation, regardless of the public cost. Such a crusade will he says rearrange the current alliances and embrace policies such as energy taxes. See the Friedman article on a gasoline tax, where he tells those who want to fight the wars against religious extremism such as in Iraq, to not be wimps and take on the opposition to the gasoline tax....

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Boris Johnson wins the race to lead the Conservative Party and become the next prime minister of Britain. Several ministers resigned underlining the problem he faces lacking support from the Conservative party members who do not support exit from the European Union without some deal or arrangement with the EU. He will lead a minority government that could fall with the loss of support from within the Conservative Party itself. Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt by 92,153 votes to 46,656. He now has a margin of only three votes with the help of the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and faltering support from members of the Conservative Party who see Boris Johnson's idea of simply leaving the EU on October 31st deal or no deal as problematic.