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Indian Finance Minister Sitharaman gives the following remarks in parliament on the White Paper presented to the 18th Lok Sabha in January 2024, describing the dire condition of the Indian economy by 2013 with mismanagement and "big ticket" corruption. India's Finance Minister Sitharaman describes the situation in three key areas by 2013 that left the economy of India in a fragile state, with projects stalled, development delayed, and capital investment not taking place. She gives as 3 main points of focus- the state of affairs at Defense Ministry, at the Environment Ministry, and for Energy supplies. At the outset she says PM Modi had suggested the need for such White Paper by 2015 so that future generations would know what had happened in India that failed the country at a time when China had already joined the community of developed nations. The issues go back to the coal scandal when coal auctions had to be cancelled by the Supreme Court for irregularities, the misuse of state owned banks leading to a large increase in non performing loans, and the mismanaged Commonwealth Games under government before 2014.  Sitharaman told parliament this had the effect of national security being compromised, Environment as a Ministry becoming a bottleneck, and the leadership failing the country. In the military there was a critical shortage of ammunition and equipment. She cites the Defense Minister at the time having the attitude that independent India has had a policy for many years not to develop the border areas, as an undeveloped border was better than a developed border. She also says Ministry stated that 92% of the Defense Budget was used up and major acquisitions have to wait for the military. Following this Sitharaman cited the scandals of that period and leakages of funds that weakend the country and failed its people. She compared capital expenditures today of 6.22 lakh crores in 2024 thre times the number in 2013 of 2.53 crores. HAL now makes Tejas jets and helicopters in Made in India production. At the Environment Ministry the delays that were 86 days reached a high of 316 days by 2013 for approval of development projects, with 355 projects pending, the nation brought to a standstill with the effects of the coal supplies to thermal power plants being wholly inadequate and Coal India in poor shape. The root of this was said Sitharaman- what everyone in Indian business knew, the term "genteel facts," as the cost of business going up. She cites the changes since then of aiming for Balance and Development- Transparency, Online Green Clearance, Standardized Environment Impact Studies, A new Department of Climate change, International Solar Alliance 2015, Mission Life 2022, Green Hydrogen, Namami Gange, Rooftop Solar. India set ambitious goals at the last Climate change Conference.    ...

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Gilberto Hinjosa was state head of the Democratic Party in Texas. He resigned and said he would not run for reelection after he said that Democrats should take moderate positions on social issues like transgender. Ken Martin the new head of the Texas Democrats says the party has to show that it is present and give people a sense that we give a damn about their lives. Democrats are seen as paying little attention to South Texas. This report in NYT says Texas is urbanizing and 5 of the 15 largest cities in America are San Antonio, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Austin. Another 2 million population increase in Texas in last 4 years, by 2030 in redistricting 4 more seats in Congress could be added for Texas. For Democrats to be competitive the road runs through Texas says this report in NYT. A lot depends on understanding that Latinos are conservative on cultural issues, immigration border issues affect all people in Texas, Latinos and Whites alike.

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This NYT report cites safety experts saying that Norfolk Southern's excessive focus on profits may be partly to blame for derailments and accidents like the one in Ohio. Norfolk Southern made $3 billion in 2022, invested $2 billion in its railways and operations, up a third from 2021. But says the NYT Norfolk invested only half of the $18 billion it put into stock buybacks and dividends for its railways and  operations over a five year period. One environmental group says the railways have fought all kinds of basic safety regulations- modern braking systems, stronger tank cars for explosive, even information on what's on trains from passing to communities. Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington now leads an investigation from the Senate Commerce Committee. She said- Over the past five years the 7 railroads "have cut their workforce by nearly one third, shuttered rail yards where rail cars are traditionally inspected, and are running longer and heavier trains." Concerns about staffing shortages and rail road scheduling policies led to workers not being able to take medical leave leading to workers deciding to go on strike. This was averted by president Biden on December 2, 2022 by imposing a contract for pay raises and better terms for workers on the railroad companies only about 3 months before this train disaster. ...

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Neelman, who founded airline Jet Blue, is now starting an airline in the country where he grew up as achild of Mormon missionaries. The country Brazil is vast with a rickety transportation network, and he feels ideally suited to alow cost airline. At this time 85% of traffic in the air is controlled by 2 airlines which have no incentive to reduce prices. With 12 Embraer planes and the name Azul, Neelman is off to a start, and prices on some routes are lower than acomparable bus fare. The same approach worked to link up cities with low fares in India by pioneer Jet Airlines, though some of those fares in India are up from where they used to be with the losses in the Indian airline industry.

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This WSJ editorial after the riots in Baltimore, points out that the "blue city model" is not working. Baltimore has 8.4% unemployment compared to the 5.4% unemployment in the state, and 21% unemployment in the neighborhood of African- American Freddie Gray in Baltimore. It says failing public schools, economic decline with people leaving the city, and a general lack of opportunity, are causes for the breakdown in the city leading to the call of the National Guard by the governor to maintain law and order. The editorial emphasizes the need for private economic development, "broken windows" policing of the type encouraged under Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg in New York City, a culture of personal responsibility, and school choice, as a way out of the crisis in American cities such as Baltimore that are failing.

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Demonstrations across France in cities like Paris, Lyon and Marseilles, by private and public trade unions drew an estimated 2.5 million people. They are protests that President Sarkozy's government is not doing enough to provide stimulus to the economy and protect jobs. THese are the largest nationwide demmonstrations in more than 20 years. France lost the most jobs in 40 years in the last quarter of 2008 and Sarkozy's government has only announced a$35 billion stimulus. Germany and France are also holding back on large stimulus spending , including significant help for Eastern European countries, and this will become an issue at the April 2, 2009 G-20 meeting. Ted Truman at Treasury is articulating aforceful response for the Obama administration calling on the EU countries to come up with astrong stimulus plan. See link.

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The consumer confidence index of the Conference Board declined to 61% in September 2008 and to 38% in October 2008 in a survey of 5000 households. THe index reache 100 in 1985 and 38 is the lowest its recorded since the index was started in 1967. The survey showed more than half the respondents worried about the job market deteriorating further. About 760,000 jobs were lost for the 9 months to September 2008, the Labor Department reports. And home prices declined 16.6% in August compared with a year ago for 20 cities, the biggest annual drop in the history of the Case Shiller Index, for Home Prices released by Standard and Poors. Phoenix and Las Vegas declined by 30% and Los Angeles,Miami, San Diego and San Francisco decline by 25%.

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Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

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This report cites experts in California that mask use was less than 50% in the state beaches and parks after it reopened. The medical officer of Orange County an affluent community near Los Angeles even resigned after mandating the use of masks in public after protests. On one day June 20, the day after bars reopened in Los Angeles County a WSJ report shows 500,000 people went to bars in the county. As of July 17 the state has 365,000 cases and about 10,000 a day. At one time it was much lower than Michigan at less than 50,000, adding to the complacency in California and a false sense that California had somehow come up with a new way around the virus. Michigan today is at about 70,000 cases, showing that careful attention to the process is important more than anything else, not some new strategy or approach that someone comes up with to beat the virus that does not meet the essentials and common sense. Even adversity can be overcome with sound attention to the basics, where complacency and a lack of fellow feeling can lead to disaster. ...

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Pico Iyer cites Nicholas Carr's book "The Shallows," about the negative effects on our lives of the relentless exposure to new devices and methods of communicating from Twitter to text messaging and email, iPhones and iPads. He talks about the need for quiet time and stillness to clear the mind and get in touch with oneself, in the midst of this barrage of distractions.

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Stephen Bosworth was appointed by Hillary Clinton as U.S. Representative for North Korea Policy. He is one of America's best diplomats who served in several postings overseas before becoming Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts. Prof. Drezner points to the work done by Bosworth in keeping dialogue with North Korea alive, till a solution can be found. He also cites Chinese analysts who say pressuring China comes from a worn playbook, that China would not agree to reunification on the Korean peninsula, to bring U.S. influence right up to its borders. South Koreans have been wary of reunification because of the decade long experience of integrating East Germany. As a result new solutions need to be found and the valuable work of diplomats like Bosworth is badly needed to keep dialogue alive for a solution to be found.

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On one hand Chinese environmental officials are aware of the pollution problems in Beijing and Shanghai and other cities. Levels of nitrogen dioxide in Beijing exceed the WHO clean air guidelines by 78%. On the other hand the newly emerging middle class is seeking car ownership, and the local government officials need growth in the car industry to show good GNP and GDP growth numbers on which their performance is judged. Beijing and Shanghai and Anhui province local governments are part owners of some auto companies. About 416,000 people are employed in the Shanghai area auto industry alone and the auto industry in Shanghai pays about 900 millon dollars in taxes, according to government figures. At seven cars per 1000 population car sales are just beginning to take off. And with China's population its clearly not going to be possible to have the same level of ownership as in the US. The same is true for India. This would increase by many times the current demand for crude oil and increase emissions to the point of creating a disaster. And even today because of lax enforcement, and older models on the road, about 40% of vehicles in Beijing have no pollution controls and the other 60% have varying degrees of pollution controls. Experts say changes to the subsidized oil price policy, refineries that produce cleaner gasoline, policies to build more mass transit which has lagged behind in China as car sales took off (and probably more GNP impact from car plants than mass transit which act as inducement for local officials), and stricter fuel efficiency and auto emissions standards are needed....

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During the coronavirus the market is pushing some buyers out of the market while other buyers are willing to pay higher prices. Limited stock, cheap financing, and low fuel prices are pushing buyers into more expensive models with higher prices. The average new vehicle sold in August in the U.S. was at $35,420 according to J.D. Power. The auto market is following the housing market in this sense where limited supply is pushing up prices. Auto sales declined by 20% in August. Younger buyers are being priced out of the new vehicle market and auto makers are focusing on higher margin vehicles.

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With Britain preoccupied with Brexit, and the U.S. in a trade dispute with China, Chancellor Merkel remains the only western leader to visit and hold extensive talks with Chinese leaders Li Keqiang and Xi Jinping. She also visits other Chinese cities such as Wuhan and gives a speech at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, in which she commented on the social credit system being implemented in China about the social creditworthiness of individuals and businesses.  Merkel sitting next to premier Li Keqiang in Beijing advocated "that conflicts be resolved without violence and that anything else would be a catastrophe." She called for a peaceful resolution of the situation in Hong Kong and for Hong Kong's rights to be "guaranteed." This is significant because the close cooperation between Germany and China is critical for China today to tackle the economic problems created by the trade disputes with the U.S.  Merkel has a close relationship with Chinese leaders and has visited China many times, giving her the confidence to talk to Chinese leaders without arousing any sensitivities about internal affairs of China. She is the only leader who can speak her mind to Chinese leaders, without offending them. When she used the word "catastrophe" she chose it carefully. It took decades for China to build the trust and relationships with Europe and the U.S. that it has.  Trading relationships matter for both China and western nations and are built on trust and good relations. With the Shenzen region growing faster than Hong Kong, and thinking like Beijing, China could tackle the situation in Hong Kong over a long period. ...

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A poll conducted twice each year by the University of Hong Kong researchers since 1997 shows Hong Kongers increasingly identify with their city including Hong Kong diaspora returning to the city from overseas. The latest June poll shows this identification increasing in intensity as time passes. Compared to 1997 and 2007 more Hong Kongers identify themself with Hong Kong and much less with "citizen of the People's Republic of China." After "Hong Konger" the identification next is with "Asian," "global citizen," and "members of the Chinese race." Culture is one major aspect of this, the other is the sense of being drowned by mainland people, by the large number of people from the mainland cities buying housing in Hong Kong, driving up prices and making housing unaffordable for the local people. Other aspects of this are the mothers going to maternity wards so their children can get Hong Kong residency, and the slots in elite schools going to mainlanders. Even the tycoons and large business interests are seen as distanced from the local Hong Konger because of the increasing inequality in society, their benefitting from business ties with the mainland with willingness to give up Hong Kong's local interests. At another level one can see this local identity across other parts of mainland China also, as the educated middle class in Shanghai and Beijing see themselves as apart from the "country bumpkins" and migrants from surrounding rural areas. This is a cultural phenomenon quite different and apart from the ideological concerns of the Communist Party, cultural difference which always exist below the surface. The business elite of the Communist Party can relate more to the environs of Sydney, Australia, than to the rural areas around Shanghai, just as much as the business elites in Bombay with connections to a ruling party can relate to Sydney or Toronto. Not everything about humans fit neatly into ideas such as "China Dream," or a "India Dream." And this may be a good thing when all is said and done- only human nature seeking not to be disturbed. ...

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Friedman cites Prof. Rogoff's work about the economc crisis being a great Credit Contraction and not a Great Recession. The process of deleveraging and transfer of assets from creditors to debtors either through financial repression, inflation or transfers, has to take place before the economy can recover. Rogoff says it takes a period of 4 years or more before the economy recovers in situations like this based on historical experience.

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Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

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A drought in northern China is shaping up to be the longest since 1951, matching one in the winter of 1970-71. This will affect world food prices as adverse weather has also affected Russia, Australia and Argentina, which are major food producers. China has large reserves of grain and has the foreign exchage reserves to import wheat. China's wheat imports rose to 1.2 million tons in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services. This compares with global output of 682 million metric tons of wheat in 2009, as estimated by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Because China accounts for one sixth of global wheat production, this will put pressure on wheat prices. The Chinese government has cushioned price rises by asking provinces and cities to raise the minimum wage, which went up by 18% a year in Guangdong province.

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China's GDP growth of 8.7% for 2009 is based on private sector investment in housing and infrastructure spending through the stimulus funds. Now with a asset price bubble developing from excesssive lending in 2009 the government is trying to slow bank lending. Experts see a situation similiar to Japan, as an asset price developed there in the 1980's after rapid industrialization. Even though China will still be a developing country after this phase of growth. Property prices are going up by 20% a year in the major cities. And with it making housing unaffordable for most people except the top 20% of the people who comprise about 120 million. This raises issues of equitable growth for Beijing. Much of the rest of the country is being left behind when it comes to housing and in other areas like health care.

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Powell and Rashbaum's interview with New York City Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly. Kelly changed the idea that crime was an everpresent fact of urban life in the heart of America's cities. He also considered increasing the number of officers alone as a political number not related to improving safety. Crime reduces the quality of life in inner city neighborhoods and in downtown areas and a safe city benefits all communities. Could this have been done without "stop and frisk" or had things deteriorated to the point that such measures had to be resorted to is the controversy surrounding the tactics. This had less to do with the increasing inequality in the city that the new Mayor De Blasio cited in the election, which was aggravated by the 2008 financial crisis and cuts in state and federal funding, which affected minority communities disproportionately.

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The mosque project of the first Islamist prime minister in the 1990's, Necmettin Erbakan, was seen by the secularists in Turkey as an effort to rewrite Turkey's history as a Republic. During that effort current prime minister Erdogan headed a local commission in charge of the project. Erdogan was Mayor of Istanbul. That project failed because of opposition from the military. As the current prime minister, Erdogan is making another effort to build a mosque in Taksim Square, Istanbul. Architect Ahmet Vefik Alp designed a modern mosque using materials, concepts and designs that reflect the twentieth century for Taksim Square. Erdogan has rejected this design and has promoted a design based on the Ottoman period architecture. The street protests in Turkish cities reflect this continuing struggle between the Islamists and secularists and the kind of Turkey each group wants to see.

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Texas regulators approved a new wind transmission project which will add a network of transmission lines from west texas to the big cities like Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. These lines will handle 18,500 megawatts of power, enough for 3.7 million homes on a hot day when air conditioners are running. It will add to the 5300 megawatts of already installed capacity. The project will cost $4.93 billion and will come on stream by 2013. Texas now leads the nation in wind energy with twice the capacity of the next leading state California. Texas is unique because it has its own transmission grid so it can move faster without needing approval of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Transmission is a big problem because in west Texas some of the wind generators have to be turned off because of lack of transmission capacity.

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How IBM with its Smarter Planet initiative, GE, Cisco are creating smart infrastructure that saves energy. This reduces carbon dioxide emissions by reducing traffic congestion in cities like Stockhom, uses less water at plants, uses less energy for rail locomotives. These companies use technoloical advances in sensors to monitor use and advaced software to control usage. The huge stimulus spending in these areas creates new opportunities that companies are pursuing aggressively. One Dept of Energy project in Washington state using IBM technology showed that peak loads on utility grids can be reduced by 15%. Nationally such an advance in the U.S. over a 20 year period would eliminate the need for 30 coal-fired plants. IBM has a project in Norway for distribution with the largest food supplier using tracking software to optimize shipments and reduce spillage.