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Politicians and political parties are reaching out across religious faction lines to form new coalitions starting with Prime Minister Maliki. This includes insurgents now trying to run in the upcoming elections. They too are working with groups they previously opposed. The reason lies in the Iraqi public's increasing impatience with religious faction based politics.

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Of the estimated 14,400 candidates for provincial elections in Iraq, about 4000 are women. And security improvements have enabled women even in Basra to stand up for elections. In the current Iraqi constitution there is amandate for 25% of seats in Parliament to be reserved for women, but there is no such provision for provincial elected parliaments. This does not imply that years of lack of representation in the last 50 years under dictatorships, and the rule of religious parties and militias, is going to be easily overcome. Many qualified women simply don't want to risk standing for election because of threats to their safety and the male dominated culture that prevails. Its the courageous ones who are standing. The hope is that women can also put adent in the deep corruption that prevails in government and bring a new perspective and better representation of society.

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The Saudi government announced sharp cuts in spending and subsidies to cut the deficit in 2016. The deficit in 2015 was about $98 billion or 367 billion riyals , according to Al Arabiya Saudi news channel. In 2016 the budget is designed to cut the deficit to $87 billion or 326 billion riyals. The 2016 budget is for 840 billion riyals, compared to 975 billion riyals in 2015. Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion could be exhausted at this rate by 2020, experts say. Actions being taken by the government include increasing the price of some grades of gasoline sold domestically by 50%, as subsidies are being cut. The drop in oil prices to about $35-$40 is hurting Russia, Saudis and Venezuela. The Saudis have increased defense spending for conflicts in Yemen, and in other areas, as they oppose Iran and Russia in the Iraq- Syria conflict.

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The U.S. effort to protect the sea lanes in the straits of Hormuz as the Iranian backed Houthi rebels advance into the southern port city of Aden in Yemen. This involves support of Saudi airstrikes in Yemen and control of airspace over Yemen. In Iraq the U.S. makes airstrikes to support Iranian backed Shiite militias near Tikrit. The lack of a coherent policy and years of inaction by the Obama administration in the Middle East leads the U.S. into a situation where it is drawn into airstrikes on both sides of the Middle Eastern sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict.

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Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

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Here Simon Jenkins in the Guardian looks at the situation in Spain, where independence from Spain for Catalonia, could lead to independence demands from other regions such as the Basque region. He says opposition to devolution of powers to Scotland in the 1980's in Britain led to the drive for independence in Scotland years later. He sees the Spanish government's strong response as not the best way to deal with the situation. A better way is to allow some form of self-rule for regions such as Scotland and Catalonia, enough self-rule to accomodate regional aspirations. He cites the example of Slovakia with peaceful separation as the alternative if no agreement is reached.

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One military expert says even if half of the Iraqi army can be put in shape it could turn the tide against the ISIS. Advice from U.S. military experts is for the Iraqi army to focus only on the ISIS and avoid hurting relations with the Sunni population. Advisers are seen as making a difference and needed also for the tribal forces. A major difficulty is that Shiite militias and advisors from Iran play a role in the forces loyal to prime minister Maliki. Following the U.S. training of the Iraqi Army at a cost of over $25 billion there was a period under prime minister Maliki when he appointed officers more for loyalty than for military skills and training. With the U.S. withdrawal the Iraqi Army languished in this situation. Reporters from NYT and WSJ have documented extensively the weakness of the Iraqi Army in commanding officers, in training and in equipment.

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Jim Krane of the Judge Business School at Cambridge University, points to an important development- the increasing consumption of oil in Saudi Arabia that is shrinking its ability to be a reserve supplier in the Middle East when a Iraq, a Kuwait or a Libya's oil supplies are cutoff. Saudi population and industry is growing and is using up a quarter of its oil production. Consumption is at 3 million barrels a day, more than the oil consumed in Germany, and is growing at 10% a year. Use of oil is subsidized by the government and with social spending up in Arab countries a cut in subsidies is not expected anytime soon. Projections by Jadwa Investment of Riyadh show that the reserve margin will disappear by 2020. By 2038 Chatham House in London predicts Saudi Arabia will become an importer of oil. This is important because America's sanctions against oil imports from Iran require the Saudis to step up and act as the reserve supplier. This happened with Libya, and 1.5 million barrels a day were cutoff after the revolution. Iran exports 2.2 million barrels a day. This will keep supplies tight and keep pressure on oil prices in 2012-2013....

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Mitt Romney on the weaknesses of America's position in the Middle East in policies for Syria, Libya, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world. The problems with Iran and the lack of results in bringing an end to Iran's nuclear program.

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The WSJ's Spencer Jakab points out the role of politics- with Saudi Arabia in a standoff with Iran and Russia in Middle Eastern conflicts- and Saudi policy of full output with no cuts unlikely to change, ensuring lower prices for 2016-2017.

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Friedman says he hopes Hillary Clinton will take a mediating role to bring all the Iraqi political factions and ethnic communities to work together in a democratic framework, and not go their separate ways into sectarian conflict once more. With the US out of Iraq by June 30, 2009, this is critical. Friedman says Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan are not separate wars, but part of the same war, and the same struggle to win credibility for democracy and reconciliation, education, women's rights and modenization for the Muslim world as a way forward. Its the only alternative to looking backward. He says he has never bought into the idea of Iraq as the bad war, Pakistan as the necessary war and Afghanistan as the good war. In fact he says experts point out that very little will spread out of Afghanistan when the US leaves. But Baghdad has been acentre of culture, education and influence in the Middle East for centuries, so getting it right there after so much American effort and sacrifice has been invested there, is crucial for the Muslim world to move forward in the right direction....

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How the large missile attack on Israel from Iran took place is shown in The Guardian.

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The difficulty of protecting vital petroleum facilities in the Gulf region from drones and missiles even with existing advanced Patriot systems is likely to result in fresh thinking about the tight sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran. American pressure on Asian buyers of Iranian oil, Japan, China, India, and South Korea, has resulted in cutbacks of oil imports to Asia from Iran, reducing Iran's oil output and damaging the economy.  The election of a new government in Israel led by Mr. Gantz, departure of Mr. Bolton, Mr. Trump's flexibility to meet with Mr. Rouhani of Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal, and America's effort to remain in control of its policy in the region consistent with avoiding entanglements in foreign conflicts, all point to a reappraisal of current policy. 

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The deep split in American public opinion over the Iran nuclear deal.

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International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief, Yukiya Amano, answers questions in a closed door 90 minute meeting with the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The IAEA chief says he cannot disclose details of his investigation into Iran's earlier weapons activities, or the agency's agreement with Iran for the inspection of nuclear facilities. Senator Corker who heads the committee said most senators left the meeting with greater concerns about the inspection process. The IAEA chief cited as reasons for the secrecy, independence of the agency, and what he called "a legal obligation" to protect confidential information. Senator Barroso described the process as one in which an NFL player or athlete is asked to mail in his own urine sample. Of particular concern to senators is the Parchin site where testing ocurred in the early 2000's, which Amano has said Iran is trying to sanitize, and which is not part of this agreement. Iran has not agreed to IAEA requests to interview a Iranian scientist Mr. Fakhrizadeh or other top Iranian military officers and nuclear scientists as part of its probe into past Iranian nuclear activities, Yukiya Amano told the WSJ in an intervew. ...

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Experts say the U.S. or Iran's adversaries lack the ground game that they could help organize spontaneous protests all over Iran. In recent days the economic conditions in Iran have led to widespread protests. The last time such widespread protests happened in Iran was in 2009, which were suppressed. This time economic  conditions and the way the country is run have led to protests.

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President Trump outlines a plan for Afghanistan that increases the U.S. troop presence from about 8500 with an addition of 4000 more troops and advisors, in addition to a counter terrorism force. To war weary public in the U.S. he says: "I share your frustration over a foreign policy that has spent too much time, energy, money- and most importantly, lives- trying to rebuild countries in our own image instead of pursuing our security interests above all other considerations." About his criticism of the war when president Obama was in office as a huge costly waste of resources Trump said: My original instinct was to pull out, and historically I like to follow my instincts... I heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk at the Oval Office." After resisting the advice of his own advisers Trump decided to fire Bannon who had supported use of American private security contractors for the war in Afghanistan, and used parts of the media to question national security advisor McMaster's views on this. Gen. Mattis, completed a strategy review that showed the mistake of creating a vacuum would repeat the situation of Iraq where president Obama withdrew forces in 2011, leading to a sequence of negative events- with Russia, Iran and Islamic State moving into the vacuum, making American intervention in the war necessary, increase in terrorist incidents worldwide, and a flood of refugees into Europe. Ironically clearing the path for an outsider's bid for the White House, with Brexit in which refugee fears and uncontrolled immigration played a part, and the news of terrorism and the war in Syria-Iraq creating a sense of insecurity. A key difference in the Trump approach with Obama's approach is that "conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables will guide our actions from now on," in line with Trump's criticism of Obama's approach. The military in the U.S. has long maintained that the best approach would have been to insist on U.S. presence in negotiations with the Iraqi government under the sectarian prime minister Nouri Maliki. Gen. Mattis was head of Central Command under the Obama administration and must have pushed the view of the military to president Obama to no avail. Failure to do so led to the growth of Shiite militias and the alienation of Sunnis in Mosul, leading to the fall of Mosul to Islamic State thus creating the current crisis. Gen. Mattis and Lt. Gen McMaster are intimately aware of the problem and must have convinced Trump that this is what really happened, that a repeat would waste the sacrifices of American soldiers in the twin wars. Trump gave this as his reason when he said in his televised speech to the nation- essentially a criticism of Bush that he expanded the conflict too quickly, and Obama exiting too quickly to create a void. Trump call his policy "principled realism."  The roots of the crisis are in the India-Pakistan conflict. Like the conflict in South East Asia the conflict in South Asia extending from Iran to India and Pakistan, may take a generation to overcome. A rapprochement between India and Pakistan, beginning with trade and economic relations, is not only in America's interest, it also provides the basis for a realistic American withdrawal. ...

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Egyptian president Morsi's address at the UN General Assembly as "the first Egyptian civilian president elected democratically and freely." On the Egypt-Israel treaty he said: "we are committed to what we have signed on." He defended the Syrian people, who he said were trapped in "the tragedy of our era." For Syria, Morsi has formed a contact group of Iran, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to defuse tensions in the region. Egypt backs the initiative of the Arab League and the UN led by an experienced diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi, who recently visited Syria.