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Comedian and politician Beppe Grillo, from Genoa, who leads the Five Star Movement party. This party has increased its support from 4% in 2011 to about 18% in recent opinion polls. Grillo is a moderate liberal who has benefitted from the unpopularity of austerity measures taken by prime minister Mario Monti and the rapidly declining support for Berlusconi's People of Freedom party after recent coruption scandals. He has opposed traditional politics of established parties since 2005 when he pulled together people over social media and the internet. Support for political parties in Italy is rapidly fragmenting with Berlusconi's party dropping to 17% in polls and no party having significant support. In this situation business leaders support a continuation of the Mario Monti government beyond the April elections if no party gets a mandate from voters. Grillo says his movement is similiar to other movements that oppose the euro and austerity measures such as the Marie Le Pen movement in France. It is against this background that the Social Democrats in Germany have united behind Peer Steinbruck, a former finance minister, who has the best chance against Merkel in 2013 elections for chancellor in Germany. Most of the difficult and necessary actions that Merkel and the German public have supported are already taken- the changes in labor laws in Italy, France's 2013 budget that targets 3% deficit in 2013, efforts of Italy, France and Spain to improve competitiveness- and capital markets continue to provide vigilance in this direction, creating a situation where Merkel may have exhausted her effectiveness. This creates an opening for a change in policy in the eurozone that offers more German flexibility on stabilizing the eurozone and supporting the embattled governments of Monti in Italy and Rajoy in Spain facing popular protest and not enjoying the kind of support Monti says France has from Germany....

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IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde says Greece should have 2 more years to achieve the deficit targets. Speaking at a news conference during the annual meeting of the IMF in Tokyo in Oct 2012, Lagarde said: "it is sometimes better, given circumstances.. to have a bit more time... This is what we advocated for Portugal, it's what we advocated for Spain, and it's what we are advocating for Greece, where I have said repeatedly that an additional two years was necessary for the country to actually face the fiscal consolidation program that is considered." A two year extension would add an estimated 20 billion euros to the financing cost for Greece, at the same it improves the chances for growth and means having a program that is more likely to work.

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With an article posted online and a 2 hour question and answer session Medvedev outlined his vision of Russia that attacks the corruption, commodities based economy, and lack of pluralistic democracy. This is the first major effort where Medvedev has repeatedly emphasized the differences between his vision for Russia and the existing state of affairs. He did not rule out running in 2012 for President even though he stated he has ggod relations with Prime Minister Putin.

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If there is no good succession in Medvedev's view the economic and social development of Russia will slow down significantly, for this reason the First Deputy Prime Minister under Putin puts a lot of significance on getting a good leader in place to continue the development progress of recent years. It is interesting that the thought process behind the remarks shows that the person has reflected a lot on these things, on leadership and good succession and its role in development, on a government and the importance of a good constitution and getting the best out of it, on studying the experience of other countries and being aware of their historical development, the role of a national leader, the constitution and everybody abiding by it, on corruption and its presence in latent and other forms and its different character in different societies. He talks about the importance of a Presidential system for Russia with strong presidential power, and the complete unsuitability of a parliamentary republic for Russia because it appears that the government could end up being weak with a many party coalition, especially in Russia at this time where there are many parties and factions each would be jockeying for power. Coalition governments would not accomplish much leading to stalled economic and social development. Manufacturing is very important to Russia, and adding a high portion of the value added to products is very important,  that Medvedev understands. It appears he has reflected on a lot of things that matter to Russia's development, and would make a different kind of President than Putin. He just might carry forward Russia's development for the next 8 years in a proper manner. From the standpoint of oil prices and availability of supplies, a good environment for cooperation in the energy sector between foreign companies and Russian companies, it appears that Medvedev would offer good leadership for the next 8 years in a Medvedev- Putin combination as President and Prime Minister, a Medvedev-Putin administration. This would also be true in the manufacturing sector in the expanding industries like automobiles and others. ...

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Underreporting of coronavirus cases in China poses risks for other nations in not giving them a sense of the magnitude and severity of coronavirus. This leads to a false sense of security- in Japan, Sweden and other countries, much delayed action and a sense of exceptionalism that we can ride this thing through like an ordinary virus, In the U.S. and Italy, Spain, UK and Germany, loss of crucial weeks before taking action. Looking to the future this poses new risks as it still leaves people without a sense of how long to continue lockdowns.  The pandemic poses huge risks for Asia and Latin America because of poverty, crowded conditions and sanitation levels. The early action by prime minister Modi was a huge step in the right direction before coronavirus spread could damage the economy and people- as Mr. Modi said if not done right such as with a 21 day lockdown this could set India back by 21 years. It had value in that it alerted other countries such as Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Pakistan to take strong action early. As the WSJ says here in this essay by what is important for China and all other countries reporting on coronavirus is that this reporting is vital only because it can save many other countries from making costly mistakes. Which is why the direct doctor to doctor contact between Chinese doctors and American doctors is an encouraging right step, says WSJ.  ...

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Bondholders and the Greek government are stalled in talks and waiting for Germany and the IMF to come up with the 14.5 billion euros that is due on March 20, 2012. It may suit the bondholders holding out for a higher interest rate in the 4-5% range for the new bonds to be issued at 50% of face value with long term maturities, but is bad for Europe. This Journal editorial points out that this is bad for European taxpayers and points to other steps that can be taken which are being discussed in European circles. One step is for acollective action clause to be inserted for the existing Greek bonds under which all bondholders have to accept losses if two thirds of the bondholders agree to accept losses. To ensure the safety of the Greek banking system Greece would restructure the bonds held by Greek banks so that they continue to be acceptable as collateral with the ECB, and issue new bonds to the ECB with face values, interest rates and maturities matching existing holdings. The idea is to make it possible for Greece to reduce its total debt and its debt servicing costs- which is really the only way out of the crisis. The ECB and Greece would use the collective action clause to restructure the Greek debt to reduce interest and debt servicing costs on new bonds to be issued. The Journal editorial says it should also mean Greece and the ECB are not required to put up the 30 billion euros in up-front cash that was agreed to in a poorly devised agreement in 2011....

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Efforts being made to convince the Spanish government of Mariano Rajoy to accept IMF aid to recapitalize its banks. The IMF released information showing Spanish banks would need to raise at least 37 billion euros or $46 billion to prevent a worsening of the banking crisis. The report was released before the meeting of EU finance ministers on June 9-10 to persuade the Spanish government to accept IMF aid. The eurozone bailout fund was given powers in 2011 to make loans to governments for the purpose of recapitalizing banks, with conditions and terms set for the financial sector not for the government's spending plans. According to people aware of the discussions taking place in the European Commission and the IMF, one option is to have the European Banking Authority and not the IMF oversee the program. This avoids the usual stigma of accepting aid coming from the IMF with strict conditions attached including restrictions on the government's fiscal plans.

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New rules for euro currency nations in Sept. 2011. The rules provide for sanctions against countries with budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP, and national debt exceeding 60% of GDP. Countries that break the rules will be required to make a cash deposit in a non-interest bearing account for an amount that is 0.2% of GDP. If the situation continues the deposit becomes a fine. The European Commission will still require finance ministers permission to impose sanctions, but the voting system makes this harder to block. The European Parliament will consider 6 pieces of legislation to make these changes.

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Krugman points out that the prevailing bias in the US distorts the facts about Europe's performance. Frankfurt, London and Paris he says are just as lively and modern as New York and Chicago. They are not poor and backward. When you factor out population growth in the USA, since 1980 per capita real GDP which is what affects living standards has grown in America at about the same rate as the 15 European Union countries: 1.95 percent in the USA vs. 1.83 percent for the EU. And for the 25-54 years working age group unemployment in the EU 15 countries in 2008 was 80% of adults (83% in France), which is about the same as in the USA. The French and Germans work fewer hours but output per hour is close to American levels.

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The Economist cites figures showing Canada lost 500,000 manufacturing jobs since 2005, with employment in manufacturing down to 1.7 million by 2013. From 2000 to 2013 manufacturing's share of GDP declined from 18% to 10%. This situation is shown by the decaying manufacturing towns seen in Ontario. About 500,000 manufacturing jobs were lost between 2005 and 2013, as the price of oil increased to the $100-$120 range and the Canadian currency was overvalued, leaving the Canadian economy more dependent on energy exports. Some of the auto manufacturing supplier base has shifted from the midwest to southern U.S. states, reducing the attractiveness of Ontario for manufacturing investment. Overvalued currencies have hurt the manufacturing sector of commodity producing countries dependent on exports of mining products or oil, especially Brazil and Canada. The depreciation of the Canadian currency in 2014-2015 may not help, as many of these jobs are not likely to return.

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Yannis Palaiologos, a journalist at Katherimini newspaper in Greece, gives his assessment of the situation in Greece before parliamentary elections in Jan. 2015. He says Samaras's New Democracy Party coalition with Pasok has lost momentum ever since the European parliamentary elections. Yet the left party coalition led by Alexis Tsipras is unlikely to win outright and will need to ally with the centrist parties or the Communists, even with the 50 seat bonus given to the winner under Greek election rules. Tsipras will need to ally with centrist parties and moderate his policies to stay in the eurozone. Chancellor Merkel has said a Greek exit will be manageable. A majority of Greeks want to stay in the eurozone, but find the high unemployment of 25% and steep decline in the economy with a loss of 25% of GDP under continuing austerity policies difficult to accept.

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Criticism of the EU's handling of the Greece crisis by IMF officials in a report. The report says the actions taken for debt restructuring in 2012 should have come much earlier to reduce the debt burden and the size of austerity measures in Greece. Similiar criticism has been voiced by president Hollande of France and in editorials by the WSJ. President Samaras of Greece says the sharp cuts in spending reduced potential for growth in the economy.

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BP's difficulties in the deal with Rosneft. In mid-January 2011 BP signed a deal with Rosneft with each company investing in the other through a stock swap of 5% of BP and 9.8% of Rosneft. They also agreed to jointly explore oil fields in the Russian Arctic. This sidelines BP's former partners in the TNK-BP venture. Robert Dudley, who headed the Russian operations of BP, is now CEO of the company. From 2003 to 2008, Dudley headed the TNK-BP joint venture. BP's partners in that venture, known as the AAR group of oligarchs, have sued BP over the BP-Rosneft deal. An arbitration tribunal in Sweden ruled that the Rosneft venture violates a shareholder agreement BP has in the TNK-BP venture. BP was under the impression that support from Igor Sechin, deputy prime minister and head of Rosneft, would ensure there would be no litgation by AAR, but this has not happened. It shows the uncertainties in Russian politics. Russian President Medvedev has asked political leaders to give up corporate positions, which would mean Sechin would have to give up his position in Rosneft. BP continues to benefit from access to new resources in Russia even with these difficulties. BP contributed $6 billon in cash in 2003 to the TNK-BP joint venture. BP has made $14.3 billion in dividends since 2003 on this investment and holds 50% of the assets in that venture. ...

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India is an attractive place for foreign investors with the country moving up 23 places in the ease of doing business rankings of the World Bank. Growth is faster than China since 2015, and GDP is expected to double to $5 trillion by 2030, according to government think tank NITI Aayog. Corporate deal making from foreign investors exceeds that in China. Mergers and acquisitions targeting Indian companies reaching a total of $93.7 billion in 2018, up 52% from last year, according to Dealogic. Overseas purchases were $39.5 billion for India in 2018 compared to $32.8 billion for China. In comparison to China where trade tensions are increasing, India under the Modi government has improved the ease of doing business- implementing a new bankruptcy code, easing foreign direct investment rules, introduced a nationwide goods and services tax to replace a hodge podge of taxes in different states. In the consumer sector Unilever NV made purchase of a malted drink brand Horlicks from GlaxoSmithKline PLC as part of a $3.75 billion deal. Softbank led a $1 billion investment in OYO Hotels. In infrastructure Tata Steel made a $8.3 billion acquisition of steelmaker Bhushan Steel. Reliance Jio's aggressive push in mobile with low prices is leaving the telecom industry ripe for mergers and consolidation- Bharti Infratel acquired Indus Towers for $6.5 billion. Closely held family companies are also selling out their controlling stakes. ...

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Jon Gertner makes several critical points about the importance of supporting and investing in manufacturing. The U.S. private sector in new industries such as alternative energy, and electric cars is competing not just with the private sector in Germany, S. Korea or Japan. It is competing with the governments of these countries which are investing heavily to build innovation and jobs in their home countries. Innovation, design and manufacturing are woven together in these new industries in a manner that is different from the iPhone/ iPad/ Search algorithms /Facebook software type industries dominated by names such as Apple, Google and Facebook. The software industries are the opposite of jobs intensive industries with Facebook having 2000 employees and Google having 29,000 employees. By comparison the lithium battery industry could generate over 62,000 jobs in the next 10 years, and the electric car industry as a whole with its supplier networks could generate much larger numbers of jobs. Because of the advanced technology involved these are good well paying jobs. The finance industry in the U.S. is attracted to the quick returns in the software related fields, leaving a gap for the American government to fill a role nurturing these industries. This would be similiar to the manner that the German and Japanese governments do working with their own private sector. The private sector in the U.S. needs only the early nurturing and can operate on its own by innovating its way to competitiveness in manufacturing and cost after the early years. Because of missteps in failing to support manufacturing in the U.S., the U.S. may have to import some of the technology from countries such as Japan and S.Korea to make up for these missteps. This is happening in the lithium ion battery manufacturing technology and facilities, which experts say is being successfully imported from these countries to the U.S.. The Obama administration has provided $2.5 billion dollars from the stimulus investments to support projects of 30 companies operating in the advanced battery technology field. This includes companies such as A123 Systems and LG Chem Power in Michigan. As a result of these efforts the Department of Energy estimates that by 2015 the U.S. will have the capacity to manufacture 40% of the world production of lithium batteries for the autombile industry. In 2009 the U.S. had capacity to manufacture 2% of the batteries....

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Italy's debt sustainability analysis shows how critical it is to improve prospects for growth and competitiveness and avoiding any lowering of growth from current forecasts. Equally critical is lowering of borrowing rates. And vital to setting the right tone for this is the future of the Monti government and nature and committment of the new government after spring 2013 elections.

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Francois Hollande becomes the first Socialist candidate to be elected president of France since Francois Mitterand 17 years ago.

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A sense that the policies of Hollande in France are better aligned with the Obama administration's position on economc issues.