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The NYT editorial reminds readers on the day following the Bush bridge loan approval that it would have been far better to ask the the top executives to step down as anecessary step to push substantive change through Detroit's entrenched mind-set. Which again poses the question whether Wagoner is the right CEO to reinvent the company as he said he would do. And by February 17, GM has to get bondholders to convert at least two thirds of their debt into equity, so achieving even the near term hurdles remain uncertain.

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Are there constituent "nations" or "nationalities and regions" in Spain? Seven people drafted the Spanish Constitution that was signed by King Juan Carlos I of Spain in 1978. Two from Catalan region wanted the word "nations" instead of "nationalities and regions" instead the pro-Spain supporters including aformer minister in the Franco government wanted to keep the words "nationalities" to limit the interpretation of self-government to one that would be within Spain. Today a far right party wants to se the clauses that give self government to regions and nationalities removed from the Constitution. Catalan independence supporters say the Constitution allows the right to call a referendum. Left parties see the promises for housing, healthcare and pensions as too vague in the Constitution. What was seen as a huge advance in the early years of democracy in Spain are now seen as creating room for dissension and strife in Spain, with a fragmentation in the political parties and loss of confidence in the two main parties.   ...

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The Indian economy is expected to grow by 8.5% this year compared to 6.5% in 2009. But a major problem looms in the high inflation facing India. The poor monsoon in 2009 led to higher prices for foodgrains, lentils, and sugar. And the government's cut in the fuel subsidies will lead to more efficient use of energy, but will lead to one additional percentage point in wholesale price inflation according to the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. The whoesale price index in India went up by 10.5% in June from the prior year, and this after a 10.1% increase in May. Bloomberg's tracking of consumer prices in the Asia-Pacific region shows India at the top of 17 countries in inflation, and consumer prices paid by industrial and farm workers in India are shown to be increasing at 14% annually. The government is coming under criticism for not releasing more grains from its stocks to soften the impact of last year's monsoon. The Manmohan Singh government finds inflation at above 10% unacceptable and is looking for further action from the central bank. Reserve Bank of India governor Subbarao has raised rates 3 times since March 2010 to 5.5%, and a further increase is expected at its next meeting on July 27. A better harvest in September, from a better monsoon season, could help lower food prices. If this does not happen, more tightening by the central bank could hurt economic growth, putting the government in a quandary....

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Franklin Roosevelt made this commencement address at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta, Georgia calling on the young "not just to make their way in the world but to remake  the world you will find before you." This is the task of the new generation that Harris is calling on as she makes again a call for " bold, persistent experimentation," in the spirit of science that has powered western civilization since Brahe looked at the stars and Newton at the world around him. FDR visited Georgia and had a 1750 acre farm there at the top of Pine Mountain, called The Little White House. "The country needs and, unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something." "We need enthusiasm, imagination and the ability to face facts, even unpleasant ones, bravely."   ...

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The blue collar city of Wilkes-Barre in Pennsylvania in October 2024- Harris makes the pledge to get rid of college degree requirement for jobs. Something Governor Shapiro had learned working in rural and working class parts of the state. All about respect and opportunity.

Governor Shapiro learning from his campaign in 2022 says-

 “I can remember some conversations I had early on in the campaign, about how they felt disrespected by the Democratic Party that only talked about helping people earn a college degree.”

Kamala Harris says in Wilkes-Barre-

For far too long, our nation has encouraged only one path to success.”

 

 

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This piece in Der Spiegel points out that Brexit may be an opportunity if European leaders recognize that there can be different levels of unity, and that different countries in the EU can advance at their own pace with Germany and France providing a core group. There is no longer the need for continual enlargement of the European Union as has happened before. It also offers a time to take some deep breaths and reflect on the progress so far and where it has come short, what to do about it, such as the bureaucracy that has grown in Brussels, the different views on immigration, and public sentiment. Actually the whole progress towards the European Community, and then the European Union has evolved over time. In the immediate postwar years, after one setback Adenauer once said during the difficult negotiations in 1951-52 between France and Germany to set up the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Community and the European Union- "arme Europa, arme Europa," (poor Europe, poor Europe). The Dutch and Belgian delegates had strong differences for the headquarters for the ECSC- Turin was rejected, Liege and Brussels were proposed, until Monnet was made head of the High Authority of the European Coal and Steel Community with headquarters in Luxembourg. Monnet himself considered stepping down a couple of times because of differences, and the Editor of Le Monde described Monnet's plans for European integration as "a leap in the dark." This was the first of many difficult steps in the evolution of the European Union. Nationalist feeling was nothing new, as the Gaullists opposed Monnet's drive for European unity when it differed from their ideas. Still Monnet persevered and progress took place every ten years as it must now.  ...

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How the Simpson-Bowles Commission recommendations on reducting tax expenditures and the Romney, Feldstein proposals to limit tax deductions and loopholes to make the rich pay more- at the same time as the tax code is simplified with lower rates- offer a basis for moving towards a deficit reduction plan that has support on both sides of the aisle in Congress, of Democrats and Republicans. Jeb Hensarling and Pat Toomey are the Republican members on the Supercommittee to address deficit reduction, who support a balanced approach to raise revenue from taxes and spending. Obama advisor, Chrisitina Romer sees the Simpson-Bowles approach to limting tax deductions as a good starting point for building an agreement. Romer goes so far as to say let the Republicans in Congress decide on infrastructure project selection as there so many worthy infrastructure improvement projects that getting started would be the main objective.

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Sales of new vehicles are in even steeper decline in Japan than in Germany. Germany saw a boost with reunification with East Germany. Eastern Europe is next door for sales and manufacturing. Sales declined 7.6% in 2007 over 2006 to reach 3.406 million vehicles, the lowest level since 1972. With 9 new models Toyota's sales declined by 6% in 2007. Something is happening in the developed country markets that shows the markets there are declining relative to the new markets in Asia and other emerging markets. How automakers fare in the future and which survive and grow will depend on how they prepare and execute strategies for these markets focussing on new design, efficient manufacturing and new technologies These markets will bring a different set of customers looking for improvements.

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The Chinese government raised the retail price of diesel by 18% to the equivalent of $3.58 a gallon, and the price of gasoline by 16% to $3.83 a gallon. Electricity prices and the price of jet fuel were also increased. The Chinese government decided that it could not provide subsidies for the rising prices of oil indefinitely even if the price increases mean higher inflation. Inflation was 7.7% in May 2008, and 8% in February, March and April. Prices for gasoline and diesel have been fixed in China since Nov 1, 2007, even though world oil prices have risen 45% in this period. Farmers were exempted from the price increase and tractors and farm equipment get priority allocation of fuel, three quake hit provinces of Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu are also exempt.

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Gallup found last summer that only 16% of Americans polled had "quite a lot" of confidence in newspapers, in its decades long polling of "Confidence in Institutions." For TV news only 11% trust it. Bret Stephens of NYT says the right approach to give marginalized communities a voice is to create more diverse newsrooms not let objectivity be eroded. He reminds people that in a democracy its not just about reporting, it's also about listening, listening to all the people. He quotes Arthur Miller- "A good newspaper, I suppose, is a nation talking to itself." President Biden showed this in his State of the Union address, by working hard to listen to what the nation is saying about itself, about communities all across America that were for too long being ignored while jobs were sent overseas and communities suffered. For far too long, a period that stretched into four decades, turning them into the "invisible" people. Ninety years after Carl Sandburg's "The People, Yes" the task is one of restoring that voice of the people of America. About Lincoln, Sandburg wrote that he said Yes to the paradoxes of democracy, Yes to the hopes of government, No to debauchery of the public mind, Yes to people struggling in the middle of illusions, which of the faiths and illusions would he or she choose for his portion of the light, to take one out of the wilderness. If death was in the air, so was birth.   ...

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The increasing likelihood that Greece will exit the eurozone. This happens as the New Democracy party fails to form a coalition and the other parties are offered a chance to form a coalition. The other opposition parties gained far more votes than New Democracy and Pasok in the elections and some parties favor Greece exiting the eurozone. New elections will be held in June if no government is formed. The current government of Lucas Papademos says it needs an extra year to complete the privatizations, public sector layoffs and improvements in tax collection, giving Greece till 2015 to get the job done. As a senior advisor to Papademos, George Pagoulatos, put it: "There is a sense that Greece has passed its pain threshold... Greece needs some oxygen to breathe." Both the Ifo Institute's Sinn and John Taylor see the exit from the eurozone as the best option for Greece, as interest rates on Greek debt have been reduced and Greek banks recapitalized with the March 2012 bailout. John Taylor, WSJ, Feb. 22, 2012, A Better Grecian Bailout/ WSJ, Feb. 17, 2012, Interview: Ifo's Sinn: In Greece's Interest to Leave the Eurozone.This may already be the preparation the IMF, ECB, EU, and the Greece government has laid out as an option if the voters in Greece overwhelmingly rejected further austerity. This now appears to have happened and far more quickly than politicians in Athens, Brussels and Berlin had anticipated....

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Toutiao and the growing mobile segment for news aggregated from thousands of sources for tech, politics, and other local news. Toutiao and Tencent QQ are taking advantage of the growing need for news in China. Toutiao's algorithm targets new internet users in rural areas and small towns who are looking for news and do not need the use of global news sites as is done by Google and Apple. The deep learning of computers is used to study user habits such as learning about the main soccer teams, watching funny videos,as habits of users. Beijing Bytedance Technology has come up with the new site. The highest growth rate is now for news on mobile, growth is 73% year over year far surpassing travel and mobile video, according to QuestMobile.

China restricts use of Google and Facebook News and other sites and favors local content and news sites to give international news, and news about China.

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What is the difference between South Korea and the U.S., Europe in the handling of coronavirus? It is tracking and testing.  President Trump and health adviser Dr. Fauci, see South Korea as the successful model to be followed in controlling the coronavirus. What has happened till now it is accepted with shortage of basic medical supplies and equipment, stress on hospital systems, are merely mitigation actions. South Korea was prepared for the coronavirus crisis because of the MERS and other epidemics, and failures resulting in corrective actions. Labs were centralized and better equipped for testing and tracking the infected. One of the key tools is testing. President Trump says the goal is for the U.S. to exceed and far surpass tests per capita in South Korea. Five million tests are planned by the end of April in the U.S. Where the U.S. falls short is in use of multipronged digital tracking using data from people's use of mobile phones, credit card usage, and use of apps designed to separate infected people from others. South Korea is a democracy with a population of 52 million people, about the size of France. People who were student activists in the democratization era in South Korea say the use of digital technology is a need today. We have to adapt in emergency situation they say. Ki Mo-ran, epidemiologist, and adviser to South Korean government says this is a key part lacking in the European and U.S. efforts to control coronavirus. She says in South Korea we know the patient's contacts, where he goes and stays, so we don't have to lock down everybody. Without digital tracking one cannot know which place is contaminated, which place is clean, so that there can be a lockdown of just that area and not the whole country, says Ki Mo-ran. She asks the question- is one person's privacy more important than the lives of a family or other people who are affected. Is it OK to lockdown every child in the country in a home as in Spain for over a month so that particular people's privacy is respected? These are serious questions for western society, are they exceptions or is democracy not just a western idea but equally cherished in Asian societies, people talk about Confucianism in China and the Asian culture forgetting that the biggest democracies are quite large and functioning well in India in addition to South Korea, Taiwan Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Japan, far larger in area and population than China. The French government has chosen the app TraceTogether as the least intrusive one adaptable to France for use there. The U.S. is having Google and Apple develop one of its own. India will be developing one of its own. The NYT raises the question will it be watered down so much in France or in the U.S. and UK to be less effective than the  dire need for an alternative to lockdowns? ...

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As the pandemic continues to spread and numbers grow with reopening of the economy the question remains -what can we learn from other countries positive experience in controlling spread? Here the Times provides the example of German contact tracing- chancellor Merkel has emphasized that a lot depends on "total" contact tracing, and contact tracing "above all else." Germany's experience is that even if you don't get everything right, you make an honest effort with everything you've got and do it early it makes a real difference. Some of the offices across Germany are stretched and short of staff but they have been working since the beginning of March, sometimes in the early days 7 days a week. Only 33% or one third of the offices throughout Germany for contact tracing have the required 5 person team for every 20,000 people, and 35% are overstretched or at their limit, according to one survey. No apps, just a low tech effort with people from the state administrations who were not working during lockdown trying doing something else, or volunteers. Mainly using the phone, talking to people and tracing the contact chain of people testing positive. Putting this information on the computer with a central database.  The Berlin office has 115 workers and has tracked down every one of 666 virus cases it was given. Because of privacy concerns at the Munich office sometimes even the patient's name is not given and office staff have to locate the name and the person. It requires dedication, flexibility and above all resilience, says Harold Rau, the deputy Mayor of the Cologne office, cited in this Times report. The doctor alerts the local office with a test result. The office calls the person and finds out who he has been in contact with for the last 14 days. Then the people who were in contact with are grouped based on the directness of contact, face to face, so on. These people are asked to quarantine for 14 days, sometimes with the rest of their household. They get daily call to find out how their doing for symptoms. The effort goes back to Robert Koch in the 1892 cholera epidemic in Hamburg. Robert Koch, microbe hunter in Germany, was called in after the epidemic spread from Moscow. It devastated Moscow and Tokyo, but Hamburg suffered far less about 8605 deaths as a result of the contact tracing and strict closing off quarantining of affected chains after isolating them, closing off affected parts of the city. Bit by bit the cholera epidemics sparks were put out before turning into flames, says Koch. In the current pandemic Germany has suffered 8241 deaths and 178,000 confirmed cases. So far this is in line with the cholera epidemic in Hamburg 1892, and this for all of Germany. And it is not just affluent nations that can do this. where there is a will there is a way. In Kerala state in southwestern India, similar efforts have worked to limit spread  with even better results than Germany. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says Argentina's president Macri has taken the right steps for the economy by devaluation of the peso and lifting capital controls. The peso exchange rate fell to 13.3 to the dollar from the central bank peg of 9.8. The central bank raised its short term lending rate to 35-38%, sending signals to capital markets that it was ready to intervene if needed so that the peso would not fall too far, and preserving stability. President Macri is planning to remove the export taxes on wheat, corn and beef, and cutting taxes on soyabeans to increase output.

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NATO airstrikes played abig role in defeating Gaddafi's army. NATO has so far flown 7,459 strike missions, covering thousands of targets. The result has been the destruction of the Gaddafi regime's infrastructure and fighting capabilities of his forces. With every passing week the coordination betwen the rebel units and NATO for pinpoint strikes has improved. And in the final assault towards Tripoli NATO strikes destroyed any attempts by Gaddafi forces to launch an attack to retake Zawiyah. On the ground special British and French units have helped train rebel forces and improve their coordination and capabilities.

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The close contest between Republicans and Democrats in Wisconsin to recall Governor Walker five months before the presidential election. Grassroots activists pushed hard for the recall after large protests at the state Capitol. The national Republican party has invested resources in this and sees this as part of the national campaign. Walker has raised $25 million, according to the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, and has far larger election campaign funds. Romney needs to win in the midwest in states like Wisconsin and Ohio, to win in November, and this recall election is being taken seriously by the Republicans.

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France's parliamentary elections showed the Socialist party gaining 280 seats, with two allied parties getting 34 seats, giving the Socialists an absolute majority in parliament. Greens won 17 seats and the far left 10 seats. Former president Sarkozy's Union for a Popular Movement won 194 seats and allies 35 seats, for a total of 229 seats, down from 304 seats.The National Front led by Marie Le Pen won 2 seats. Marie Le Pen and Segolene Royal both lost their seats. The absolute majority gives Socialist president Hollande more room to implement his legislative program and make changes in eurozone architecture.

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India's lower house of parliament passes a Food Security bill which provides subsidized rice, wheat and other grains to the poorer sections of society, covering about 75% of people living in the rural areas and 50% of the people in cities. The legislation increases the cost of food subsidies by $4 billion to $20 billion a year. Because of high levels of malnutrition in rural areas in India, especially among children, the program helps the needy. Brazil's Bolsa Familia program is more far reaching in helping the poor because it also requires vaccinations of children and making sure children attend school.

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Investors have bought $268 billion of corporate bonds in Europe so far this year 2009. The bond market has rebounded strongly as investors see bonds as cheap according to one portfolio manager. THey range from highly raterd bonds like EDF, to bonds with junk ratings like brewer Carlsberg and building materials maker Lafarge SA. Companies are issuing bonds to bolster their finances and as aprecaution if the credit markets tighten up again. European companies get about 70% of their funding from banks compared to 30% in the USA. This is bringing to life large stretches of Europe's markets and helping businesses finance operations.

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Since January 2, 2009 consumer goods companies, like Procter and Gamble and 3M, are also playing a part in the decline of the Dow Jones Average. Only Chase JP Morgan plays a part in the decline of the Dow among financial stocks, because the other financial stocks have fallen so far that their decline makes little difference. See the other link about consumers waiting for paychecks to make sizable consumer products purchases, which is also not a good sign. What worries analysts is that we are in the beginning of a consumer goods recession which has a long way to play out.

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The British pound decline of 22% against the USA dollar so far this year 2008, and a decline from a high of $2.116 in November 2007 to $1.5388 on November 11, 2008, is unlikely to help exports in 2009, and unlikely to help exports as long as other countries economies are weak and import fewer British goods. Also the shift in the recent years to exporting goods and services to less price sensitive goods such as pharmaceuticals and creative industries will reduce the export bounce effect compared to its effect in 1992 when the pound declined.

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Jim Yardley of the NYT provides this exceptional and detailed report on Pope Francis, his roots in Argentina, and how he approaches issues of injustice, poverty, and capitalism. Pope Francis brings change to the Catholic Church through his humility and a humbler Church to millions of people around the world, especially in developing countries. Yardley points out that Francis challenges the attention paid inside the church to doctrine, and the bishops paying too little attention to "spiritual worldliness" and the needs of ordinary people. Coming at a time of increasing social and economic disparities, decline in upward mobility in the western world, failures in governance by political authorites and business leaders, the words resonate in a deeper way. This report traces the story to its early beginnings in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to immigrants from Piedmont, Italy, in 1927, fleeing the Mussolini fascist regime for a land of new opportunity. As Archbishop Bergoglio in Buenos Aires he created a group of priests who worked and lived in the slums of Buenos Aires, and he made regular trips to the poorer areas of Buenos Aires. He does not embrace ideology say people who know him from the Argentine experience, but focusses on the native peoples and culture, rejecting colonial legacy, in a faith where the poor and ordinary people are central to this idea of Christianity, far from intellectuals and political manipulation. ...

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After three years o rock star popularity prime minister Trudeau's popularity has dropped so far that his party could lose the October general elections. This is after Canada's Attorney General resisted efforts by Trudeau and senior officials to let a Canadian company SNC-Lavalin avoid trial. Since then recording of a iphone call taken by the Attorney General with a top government official Mr. Wernick has created an uproar on this matter. Ms. Wilson-Raybould, the Attorney General saying in that conversation that this was going to look like nothing but political interference by the prime minister and everybody else involved in this. Nearly two thirds of Canadians now disapprove of the job Trudeau is doing according to a poll by Ipsos Public Affairs and Agnus Reid Institute.  Rock star popularity can fade quickly. In Brazil Ignacio Da Silva was popular till a crisis with state finances and the Car Wash scandal involving illegal payments led to the loss of his Workers Party in the recent elections. Mr. Trudeau had won support by supporting clean governance and giving women a say in governing. Ms. Raybould was transferred to a lower position after her unwillingness to follow government officials on the CNC Lavalin issue. Now the Liberals Party of Trudeau is trailing the rival Conservatives and Ms. Raybauld is a highly respected figure in Canada. ...

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The carefully prepared rules and strict implementation are good news for UEFA soccer after the closing of Stade Francais in rugby with 25 players testing positive and the playing squads and coaching staff put into isolation. Some of the rules as eight teams leave for the quarter finals in Lisbon. All 8 teams in the elite of European soccer are required to read and follow the 31 page document on the rules for health safety during the coronavirus. Players cannot leave the hotel without prior agreement and cannot meet people outside their group. The all get tested before they leave and the day before each game. In the hotels a private access route and a private dining area, food prepared by the team's own staff. Laundry, clothes and equipment only to be handled by team's own staff. VIP arrival areas are only one's used at airports. Everything has to be disinfected in advance. Very little is left to chance. It is similar to hospitals that have setup a rigorous defense. So far its working and hundreds of millions of fans have watched teams like Real Madrid, Manchester City and Liverpool on television. Only two tested positive when teams left for Lisbon showing that soccer teams are taking it seriously for the fans which is a good thing, a very good thing to give fans something to watch from home in these days of the pandemic. ...