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Stephen Friedman's positions at Goldman Sachs and the New York Federal Reserve.

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Th iQ gives 54 mpg, and is Toyota's smallest car yet, showcasing its new space saving design concepts. To squeeze in 4 seats the fuel tank is flattened and placed below the floor. Seats are thinner, a/C system is smaller, dashboard is shaped to give more legroom, the jack and spare tires are taken out. The car has airbags, and the world's first rearwindow curtain air bag, atoal of 9 airbags. It will go into sale in Japan for $13,420 on November 20, 2008. There is the Smart, the iQ and the Nano, different ways to get at the smallest car, and in different price segments.

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This issue of the Economist magazine looks at Saudi oil price cuts and the future for shale oil in the world's energy mix. In the short run overleveraged companies in the shale oil business in the U.S. will be affected by oil prices below $50 a barrel. The Economist points out that shale oil deposits are extensive in the U.S. and other parts of the world. The upfront costs are as little as $1.5 million for drilling a well. As a result the economics of shale will depend on new advances in technology and efficiency to bring costs down below existing costs averaging of about $57 a barrel, with some producers at costs of $35 a barrel. Because of technology advances anticipated in the field it points to shale oil as a reliable source of low cost oil supplies in the future, keeping oil prices lower than in the past and much less subject to manipulation by cartel pricing or oil price shocks. The lower volatility and lower level of oil prices will be good for the rapidly growing economies in Asia and the developed economies of Europe and the U.S., and for countries in Latin America such as Argentina with large shale deposits....

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UBM TechInsights estimates show a 51% profit margin on the new iPad released in March 2012, compared to 56% for the iPad 2 released in 2011. UBM's estimates show Apple's cost for components on the new iPad released in March 2012 with LTE capabilities at about $310, for a model that will sell for $629.

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Following the fifth North Korean nuclear test DW.com talks with Rudiger Frank about the test and what this means. Frank says the negotiations with North Korea and efforts to limit the program so far have been a colossal failure. Tests have continued and without a change in strategy more tests will be followed by the usual condemnations by world leaders and further sanctions. Frank says this change in strategy would include recognizing North Korea as a nuclear state, and getting North Korea to ensure the weapons are safe and secure in the country, getting a clear idea of what and where the weapons are. The International Atomic Agency would be asked to go in and make inspections. The next step would be to freeze the program at some level agreed to. This is a tough step to take but it only recognizes the reality of the situation, and continued development by North Korea of nuclear weapons if no steps for change are taken. 

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A new report, "China: 2030," by the World Bank and the Development Research Center (DRC), has major implications for the course of action taken by new Chinese leaders. The limits to China's economic model with the dominant role of state owned companies has been pointed out in the past. It has now reached a point where China must choose to move to a modified model or face the "middle income trap" of countries like Brazil and Mexico, where income levels and growth reaches a certain level and then decelerates suddenly with little warning. The report makes some major recommendations that would modify the current system. It says the state owned companies should be supervised by asset management firms focussed on commercializing these companies, and not supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). The asset management firms would restrict the state owned companies on what areas they participate and sell off businesses to make it possible for private companies to compete. Zoellick says- "China needs to restrict the role of the state-owned companies, break up monopolies, diversify ownership and lower entry barriers to private firms." The state owned companies would be required to pay sharply higher dividends to the government which could then be used for social programs. Currently state owned companies invest in land which is sold by local governments for revenue helping fuel the real estate bubble. Significantly, the report had its origins when it was proposed by Mr. Zoellick, head of the World Bank, during a visit to Beijing in Sept 2010. It was supported by Li Keqiang, then vice premier, and now expected to be the new prime minister of China. The World Bank is widely respected by Chinese leaders because of its assistance during the early stages of reform in the 1980's. The DRC reports to China's State Council, a top governmental institution, and the No. 2 person at DRC, Liu He, is a senior advisor to the Politburo Standing Committee. He helped draft the current five year plan and is close to Li and Xi Jinping, the next president of China. The SASAC has opposed these ideas, especially any shift in its personnel selection of management at the state owned companies, which it shares with the Communist party's personnel department. Respected China economists say China faces large risks of a sudden sharp slowdown because the the state owned companies have largely copied foreign technology and have not generated enough technological advances, which will be needed for the next stage of growth. Lower growth rates could worsen problems in China's banking system leading to a crisis. The Conference Board, estimates China's growth at 8% for 2012, slowing to an average annual growth rate of 6.6% from 2013 to 2016. Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank, and Kwanho Shin of Korea University, say the annual growth rate will drop by at least 2 percentage points by 2015....

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Dan Balz of the WP points out the effect of the bruising campaign with Bernie Sanders on Hillary Clinton's negative perceptions by April 2016- with the references to her fund raising speeches on Wall Street and on other issues. The NBC/WSJ poll in April 2016 shows her with minus 40 negative ratings among men, mimus 72 among white men, among women minus 9 points and minus 25 points among white women. With minorities her net poitive with Latinos has dropped from 21 points positive in the first quarter to 2 points positive, and for African Americans dropped from 64 points positive plus to 51 points positive.

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The smartphone market is critical for Sony as it makes its way back to profitability in 2013. Sony sees smartphone unit sales growing at 50% in the year ending March 31, 2013, compared to a decline in unit sales of video camcorders of 9%, decline in digital compact cameras of 29%, and decline of televisions of 31%. The Sony-Ericsson joint venture was a world apart from the current Sony Mobile business. Sony Mobile executive vice president, Kaz Tajima, expressed his frustration that Sony was missing opportunities when working at the joint venture. Decisions came slowly as they had to be approved at different levels. Sony Mobile moves quickly on all decisionmaking. Companywide technological capabilities are also quickly available in designing a new product. The Experia Z uses all of Sony's technological capabilities in design, cameras, television and other areas. It now appears that the joint venture was the worst thing that happened to Sony. Sony bought out Ericsson's stake in the venture in 2011. Sony starts with global smartphone market share of about 4.5% and has a lot of catching up to do....

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Opposition from New Jersey commuters to the Lower Manhattan congestion pricing scheme- driving there requires a $9 fee.

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Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Fiat-Chrysler told a conference in Michigan -"these are people who did not grow up and become conditioned to doing business in Detroit. " He cited this as one reason the new generation of leaders at the U.S. auto companies had embraced the new fuel efficiency standards. Another point he made that was well received was that "anybody who surrenders 14 years before the date ought not to be in business." He was referring to the 2025 deadline for the new standards. This view was well accepted by the other auto companies and by the UAW workers union, showing the big change that has come about in the U.S. auto industry.

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After 5 months as president of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, issues decrees giving the president powers to dissolve the current deadlocked constitutional assembly. Liberals and Coptic Christians in the constitutional assembly had walked out in disagreement with the majority of about 75% appointed by the newly elected Egyptian parliament, which has an absolute majority for the Muslim Brotherhood party of Morsi. The deadline for the constitutional assembly completing its work was extended 2 months. A key demand of the opposition was that the work of the constitutional assembly was being rushed. Morsi also replaced the Mubarak appointed public prosecutor with Ibrahim Talaat, a leader for the movement for judicial independence, and ordered a new trial of Mubarak and others involved in the death of democracy protesters. The decrees were announced just as a ceasefire arranged by Morsi and U.S. president Obama has taken effect in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Morsi placed his actions above judicial oversight saying they were temporary. This came under heavy criticism from the opposition to Morsi in Egypt, as a threat to the gains from the hard fought freedom fight by creating a situation where too many powers are concentrated in one person....

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IMV architecture for rugged vehicles and the Hilux brand of vehicles for emerging markets, are two favorable factors that Toyota hopes will generate half a million more sales than the old Hilux line. Toyota has spent $1.4 billion on building plants in India, Indonesia, Argentina and S. Africa and other countries to develop the new vehicles with new chassis, engines and other parts made in developing countries. These plants say chief engineer Hoskawa help reduce costs by 20-25% for the Hilux line of rugged vehicles with new chassis. But a port strike in India which makes the manual transmitssions, and a problem at the plant in Indonesia which makes gasoline engines- which are then shipped to plants for assembly in South Africa and Argentina- could cause problems. To cushion against such events Toyota keeps 2 weeks supply of engines and other parts in Thailand.

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The devaluation of the Argentine peso from 9.8 to the dollar to 13 to the dollar in Dec. 2015 by president Macri is leading to higher inflation hurting the working class. The cutting of export taxes is helping farmers. Removing most currency controls is designed to help increase foreign investment by letting foreign companies freely repatriate profits. Also expected to be removed are bureaucratic procedures that limit imports of new equipment for manufacturers. Middle class voters see the moves helping the economy in the long run with new foreign investment and changing the outlook for investment. A former central bank president Mario Blejer points out that after 12 years of the previous Kirchner administration Argentina needs investment- by improving the outlook for investment and removing import controls the government plans to stimulate investment to lead to economic growth. Inflation is up 25% and Macri is keeping Mrs. Kirchner's price control programs in place to prevent a surge in inflation beyond the impact of the devaluation. ...

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Credit Agricole says 4th quarter 2011 losses will be 3.07 billion euros. It is one of three French banks hit hard by the eurozone financial crisis, especially the crisis in Greece, because of investments in Greece. Conditions at the bank reflect the overall restructuring process underway at French banks, as part of an overall restructuring in the eurozone financial crisis. The delaying of aggressive action in reducing Greece's debt to a manageable level by the EU and the ECB, was part of an effort to give French and other European banks time to absorb losses on investments in Greece. Credit Agricole has now increased its provision for losses from Greece to 74% from 60% of nominal value. It has also increased the cover rate for bad loans at Emporiki Bank Greece to 54%. Emporiki was acquired in 2006, only 2 years before the financial crisis. Its total losses in Greece for 2011 add up to 2.4 billion euros, according to the bank. Credit Agricole also made writedowns on its stake in Spain's Bankinter SA for 617 million euros and Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo S/A by 364 million euros. Overall debt reduction planned for the 18 months ending in Dec 2012 is for 50 billion euros, to reduce financing needs and improve capital buffers. The bank's core Tier 1 ratio of good quality capital including equity and retained profit is at 8.6% as of Dec 2011. Job cuts of 2,350 are planned for global operations, including 1,750 at the corporate investment bank, and dscontinuing of equity derivatives and commodities trading. Shares of Credit Agricole lost about half their value in the last 12 months. It is 55% owned by 39 French cooperative regional banks, and it owns 25% of these banks....

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As part of his plans to revive Sony, CEO Hirai plans to increase sales in emerging markets by 44% in 3 years. Sony is the leading brand for television, audio equipment, and notebook computers in India. Hirai plans to increase operating margins to 5%, and increase revenues by 33%, by March 2015. The outgoing CEO, Mr. Stringer reached 5.4% operating margin in the fiscal year ending March 2008, but things changed after the global financial crisis and the problems in 2011 with the tsunami and earthquake in Japan and floods in Thailand. Sony also plans to start a new medical business with medical diagnostic products, and endoscope type products that use its advanced image sensors. Sony plans to focus on mobile devices, digital cameras, and videogames for further investment.

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Of the 27 nations represented at the EU summit meeting on January 30, 2012, all except Britain and the Czech Republic agreed to the new measures for budgetary discipline. The new fiscal compact will come into effect after 12 eurozone countries have ratified the compact. This prevents one or two countries holding up the agreement. This provides the Merkel government in Germany an agreement on concrete measures for budgetary discipline- evidence of specific action to dissenters inside the Christian Democratic party and in German public opinion- which would enable it to support efforts by the ECB, the IMF and the EU to address the crisis, including the funding of the European Financial Stability Fund. The text of the fiscal compact makes it harder to block sanctions against countries that fail to impose budgetary discipline, while at the same time making allowance for countries with excessive debt such as Italy.

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Pop and Troinanovski look at the tough negotiations ahead for Brexit and describe Theresa May as a experienced negotiator. Belgian Interior Minister Jambon says she has "a lot of policy knowledge" and moved in the direction of European cooperation. Germany Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich says May has a very clear idea of her objective, uses clear language, and is consistent. Yet much depends on other factors including elections in Germany and France in 2017. For France and Hollande the issue becomes particularly filled with implications with the need not to give the far right and Marie Le Pen any advantage by making concessions in the negotiations. German chancellor Merkel is also very clear from her perspective on migration and free movement in the European Union, a point on which she was tested by other Eastern European countries during the refugee crisis. Merkel made this clear that it was Britain's choice of direction in future relations- "Whoever wants free access to the European single market must in return accept all of the basic freedoms, including the free movement of people." Because of domestic politics in Germany and France and in the rest of the European Union, these negotiations could drag on for a very long time. The only positive sign for both sides is that May is known as a responsible politician after 6 years as Britain's Home Secretary, holding one of the top positions in the cabinet. As Merkel's popularity has recovered with about 55% popular support and the decline in the support for the AfD in recent poll cited by DW.com, Merkel may be prepared for a long negotiation to keep the original idea and spirit of the founders of the European Union alive and strong. ...

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Internal documents show years long decline in younger age users at Facebook says this report in The Financial Times.