LyrArc Article Gist
The move by Houthi rebels- belonging to an offshoot of Shiite Islam- from the north of Yemen to Sanaa and then to Taiz and Aden in the south of Yemen draws a Saudi response. Yemen borders Saudi Arabia in the south. The Saudis launch airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. The Persian Gulf states, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Pakistan support the Saudis, creating the potential for a wider sectarian conflict in the region. The withdrawal of U.S. influence in the region under the Obama administration leads to the collapse of the Arab Spring, the Saudis pursuing an independent foreign policy, the rise of Islamic State militants, Turkey following its own policy, emboldening Iran in extending its influence in the Middle East, and creating a situation of wider sectarian Sunni-Shiite conflict throughout the Middle East. It creates a situation in which the U.S. is involved on the Iranian side in support of the government in Baghdad supported by Iran against Islamic State militants, and at the same time on the side of the Sunni coalition in Yemen as the U.S. withdraws from drone bases in Yemen. At the same time the Obama administration finds itself distancing itself from Israel as it negotiates alongside France and Britain with Iran on a nuclear agreement....

LyrArc Article Gist
Brent crude prices March 3 are up to $79 a barrel. Iran And Qatar Energy have stopped production of oil. Oil has more flexibility than gas supplies for alternative sources. There are also many tankers and ships inventory on the oceans that has built up which will help big importers like the Chinese who get 5 million barrels a day through these Straits (almost a third of the total 16 million barrels a day China uses). US has offered to insure shipping through its financial institutions and escort tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz. It is also taking action to reduce the risk in the Straits.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Saudi government announced sharp cuts in spending and subsidies to cut the deficit in 2016. The deficit in 2015 was about $98 billion or 367 billion riyals , according to Al Arabiya Saudi news channel. In 2016 the budget is designed to cut the deficit to $87 billion or 326 billion riyals. The 2016 budget is for 840 billion riyals, compared to 975 billion riyals in 2015. Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves of $640 billion could be exhausted at this rate by 2020, experts say. Actions being taken by the government include increasing the price of some grades of gasoline sold domestically by 50%, as subsidies are being cut. The drop in oil prices to about $35-$40 is hurting Russia, Saudis and Venezuela. The Saudis have increased defense spending for conflicts in Yemen, and in other areas, as they oppose Iran and Russia in the Iraq- Syria conflict.

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the Journal provides reflections on U.S. foreign policy in the Obama years and advice for U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney before the third presidential debate on foreign policy on Oct. 22, 2012. It says the U.S. has always done better from a position of economic strength and defense preparedness in addressing foreign policy issues. It also points to the failure of president Obama to support the freedom struggle of the peoples of the Middle East, and a withdrawal from Iraq without securing an agreement that failed to consolidate the gains of the long conflict and resources spent in that region.

LyrArc Article Gist
Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

LyrArc Article Gist
Iran plans an ambitious $50 billion investment program to expand oil and gas output in the next 4 years. About half of that coming from Iran and the rest from outside oil companies. Iran expects to earn $54 billion in oil exports in 2006 vs. $47 billion in 2005. Iranian production represents 5% of global supply, about 4 million barrels a day. Only about 2.5 million of this is available for export. Iran has 2 problems in oil use and production. Gasoline use is growing at about 10% a year. And oil production is declining by about 5-6% a year from existing fields. The investment program over the next 4 years would increase production from new fields by about 1.3 billion barrels, but with existing fields generating less each year this will only generate about 500,000 barrels of additional output beeyond the 4million barrels today. And with domestic use growing rapidly and new refinery capacity being added to meet domestic demand of 500,000 barrels a day even this would leave no more for export than the current level of 2.5 million barrels a day, or probably less with growing gasoline use inside Iran. These are Iranian Oil Minister Vaziri Hamaneh's numbers. What this means is that with economic sanctions the whole global supply picture and the world price of crude oil would be seriously affected by economic sanctions in the next 4 years, as the 2.5 million barrels a day export number would be reduced by the increase in domestic consumption of gasoline by 10% a year, and the decline in existing fields of 5-6% a year. In the short term two year horizon this adds upto loss of some 700,000 barrels a day, about 400,000 from decline in existing oil fields and 300,000 in increased domestic use, which are no longer available for export. Hamaneh pointed to the investment as evidence of Iran's good intentions as a supplier in an interview with te Wall Street Journal. He says Iran sees the importance of preserving its credibility as a reliable supplier. It does not want to cause hardship to consumers around the world. Another reason for the pragmatic position taken by Hamaneh is that Iran depends on oil exports for 40-50% of government revenue....

LyrArc Article Gist
How Petraeus won support in Congress and with public opinion, while at the same time changing the nature of the effort in Iraq. His struggles with General Fallon even though he reported directly to President Bush, who wished to disengage too quickly to make adifference in the failing effort to bring security. The first effort was to bring security with the surge in troops, then to build the Iraqi forces. To keep public opinion informed about tangible achievements of modest goals such as security for ordinary Iraqis, and fewer American casualties, rather than some beacon of democracy goal for the Middle East. A detailed account by the Washington Post of how this played out in the words of key players like Petraeus, Fallon, Ambassador Crocker and others, and what it may tell one about the lessons for another very different effort in a rural mountainous backward country like Afghanistan. One that emerges is to set modest goals like security, try new approaches but with a clear eye on the field, put in younger leaders who can bing flexibility and imagination and intellect, but disengage on favorable terms that achieves these modest objectives....

LyrArc Article Gist
India-iran energy ties. big jum in Indian energy imports from Iran from 2006 to 2007 it went up from 702 million to $7.6 billion.