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Putin reminds Russians of the precarious nature of all that has been achieved in Russia, as he seeks support from areas outside Moscow. He wrote in an opinion article in February: "Under the flag of democracy, in the 1990's we received not a modern government, but an opaque fight among clans and numerous semifeudal fiefdoms... We received not a new quality of life, but huge social costs; not a just and free society, but the highhandedness of a self-appointed elite, who openly neglected the interests of simple people." Emphasizing the tenuous and uncertain nature of the recent prosperity, Putin said in a televised appearance: "It is enough to take two or three incorrect steps and all that came before could overcome us before we know it." Schwiritz visits the town of Lyubertsy outside Moscow and hears from ordinary people who remember the privation and dark times of the 1990's, who realize that their lives can be much better, but also see the vast improvement in living conditions. There is a real and tangible fear that all this could be lost or eroded. It also shows that as Moscow and St Petersburg have grown and flourished in the last decade with a strong middle class, there is a great deal of uncertainty felt by ordinary people in smaller towns and cities. As for that period in the 1990's, even young activists like Navalny, say a lot was done in the early years of the Putin-Medvedev government, when even Russian mortality rates were falling with a general sense of despair. ...

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Informed sources say Portugal will require 90 billion euros ($129 billion) in a bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Of this 10 billion euros will be needed in June 2011. Germany's finance minister Schauble, said the austerity program that is part of the bailout will be put together in the next 2-3 weeks with the help of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. The bailout will probably be structured in several phases coming before and after June 5 elections in Portugal. The current Socrates administration and a new administration will share responsibility in negotiations for the deal. The opposition Social Democrats who are front runners supported by 39% of the voters and the CDS party with 7%, both support the current government's bailout request. A Social Democrats-CDS coalition is likely after the June elections. The leader of the Social Democrats, Pedro Coelho, is involved in the negotiations. The crisis came to this point after Portuguese banks-which were among the principal buyers of government debt- decided to stop buying additional governmet debt. This meant the government with low cash reserves had little chance of meeting the 4.9 billion euros in debt repayments in June, after a 4.2 billion euro debt repayment in April. The Portuguese government had preferred a bridge loan from the EU but the EU declined this request, insisting on austerity measures. A recent effort by the Socrates government to get an austerity package was defeated in Parliament, leading to Socrates' resignation. ...

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The LDP Party led by prime minister Abe wins 290 seats in the lower house of parliament in the Dec. 2014 elections. Its ally the Komeito Party gets 34 seats giving the government a two thirds majority in parliament. The LDP previously had 295 seats from the 2012 elections. Of the total 475 seats in parliament, 73 seats went to the opposition DPJ Party and 21 seats to the Communist Party. This gives Abe a 4 year mandate reducing the uncertainty from having a regular change in prime ministers in recent history, making Abe the 17th prime minister in 25 years. The stable government and clear economic policy will help the economy. Abe says he will focus on prodding companies to raise wages, as many people say they have not personally seen any benefit from Abenomics. As a result turnout hit a new low of 52% compared to 59% in 2012 parliamentary elections, with prospective voters showing their dissatisfaction by staying away. Severe winter weather and public confusion about why the snap election was being held may have added to low voter turnout. Other parts of the Abe agenda include restarting some of the 48 nuclear reactors offline since the Fukushima disaster. Abenomics faces hard work ahead as it grapples with two quarters of declining growth in 2014, consumers feeling the effects of the increase in the consumption tax from 5% to 8%, and small businesses feeling the effects of higher cost for imports with the weaker yen. ...

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On one hand the issue of the $165 million in bonuses going out to employees in the 370 person Financial Products Group, and oth the other the need to wind up the complex derivative contracts that are causing these huge losses at AIG. But are such huge payouts needed for these employees to do their job? Isn't this aprofessional responsibility of these employees? And AIG's retention-payment program was disclosed a year ago and the amount of the bonuses $400 million, says the Washington Post, had been widely reported. The company is set to pay according to the WPost $600 million in retention awards to about 4700 people throughout the global insurance units. WHat happens to the $600 million, as no opinion has been voiced on these upcoming payments. The whole idea of retention payment raises another question. Will the skills of these employees be needed in a long drawn out economic downturn spread over several years or longer. And will thefailure of such things as derivatives, and the tighter regulation, mean that they will play amuch smaller role in the future. And even in the insurance units will these skills draw a premium in a market where the supply of new talent is larger than the job market ? One expert has sugggested that even if some of them left, there would be younger people to replace them who might bring an even better set of qualifications, with amix of skills, caution and prudence. So is there something self-interested and spurious in the retention argument itself and shouldn't this bluff be called? ...

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Krugman says that this may be the third time that Obama and Geithner are trying to find ways to let the market and banks come up with a value for these toxic assets and take them off the books of the troubled banks. Each time there is he says new bells and whistles but its essentially doing what the Paulson plans were doing, and are a rehash of the Paulson plan. Now in the latest version on March 23 weithner proposed a complicated scheme in which the government would lend money to private investors, who would then use the money to buy the toxic assets. Krugman's view is that it wil not work. The main idea says Krugman behind all these plans is that the toxic assets are worth much more than anyone is willing to pay now because of the lack of confidence and illiquid markets. If this could be changed then they would be assigned amuch higher value and many of the banks would not be in trouble. The trouble with this approach is that with each passing month things are getting worse, a loss of 600,000 jobs a month, and with more foreclosures and higher unemployment, housing prices are probably going to look alot worse a few months from now. Which essentially means that mortgage related securities will remain discounted by alarge number regardlesss of any number of Paulson type or Geithner type plans to wish the contrary. And in the process valuable time is lost. ...

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Reorganizing a large and ineffective sales force at H-P is one of the biggest challenges facing new CEO Mark Hurd, who took the job in 2005. Under CEO Carly Fiorina the situation had deteriorated. The H-P sales force has become a large bureaucracy which takes much longer to get things done, with the added problems of duplication, redundant layers of management, delays getting approvals and so on. Corporate customers had difficulty reaching salespeople, and getting simple tasks done such as price quotes or getting a sample product took way too long for customers. Salespeople spent only 30% of their time in front of customers, with the bulk of their time spent navigating the large H-P bureaucracy to get things done. Out of 17000 salespeople only 10000 sell to customers, 7000 or 40% are in support or administrative positions. Four people from different groups can be found chasing the same customer, and different quotes from different salespeople cause duplication and confusion. H-P corporate salespeople did not specialize in any particular product area. And salespeople used 30 different types of software to track sales because of years of acquisitions, including the acquisition of Compaq. There are 11 layers of managers between the CEO and corporate customers. Hurd's solution was to organize the sales force so that it was responsible for specific products and specific countries, similiar to the situation he had seen at his previous company NCR. Responsibility and authority for decisionmaking were matched and clearly assigned. Each salesperson had a narrower focus and was to be limited to 3 accounts. H-P's 2000 corporate accounts would have just one salesperson to interface with. Sales would only use one type of software from Oracle Corporation. Changing an organization the size of H-P is a slow process. A year after these changes, the VP of Information Technology at Lear Corporation, says he still does not know who has been assigned as the salesperson for Lear. He has not seen much change in H-P sales. Hurd also reduced the number of employees by 10%, or about 14,500 people. After these layoffs the layers of management have been cut from eleven to eight between Hurd and the corporate customer, still too big a set of layers. ...

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Snowden tells the WP's Gellman he feels vindicated by Judge Leon's describing the NSA security surveillance of phone records as "Orwellian" and the president's own panel calling for changes. He says he brought the same issues up for review by his superiors at the NSA. His goal says Snowden was for the public to have a say in the expanding information collection by the NSA, as the normal processes of review by Congress and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court had failed. For Snowden personally this meant making a decision in unknown territory not knowing how the public would respond, and what impelled him to act was the idea that doing something was better than the alternative of doing nothing.He says he considered the fear that the public would be apathetic- as it turns out the public has been anything but apathetic. After 9/11 defense and security officials operated on the basis that complete knowledge of information about U.S. and foreign citizens was needed, this gives the public an opportunity to test that assumption and see if that is itself a problem in a free society and too high a price to pay. Considering that Al Qaeda and other movements in the Middle East are a result of past U.S. support to dictators and autocratic regimes which have turned some parts of Islamist movements into forces hostile to the U.S., changes in U.S. policies to support freely elected governments are a better solution than hyper extensive policing and surveillance- defeating the problem at the source. That process has already been underway in the U.S.-in the media, and with policies supporting freely elected governments encouraging the people in the Middle East to decide their own future. With the change in policies bringing Arab and Muslim opinion on the side of the U.S. that chapter of hostility to the U.S. may be closed and a new chapter opened, making this an opportune time to close the chapter of hyper surveillance and return to surveillance that does not violate U.S. citizens right to privacy. Technology also played a part making such hyper surveillance possible- such as collecting the entire Library of Congress information in less than 15 seconds- and Congress and the Surveillance Court failing to address the issues raised by techonological advances, similiar to the way the S.E.C. and regulatory agencies failed to keep up with the changes in the financial system till after the 2008 financial crisis....

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The Panic of 1907, the run on the bank for the Knickerbocker Trust Company, and its collapse. The intervention of JP Morgan that year came too late for Charles Barney, the President of Knickerbocker Trust, who shot himself and died after 4 hours. In the preceding years Knickerbocker went through rapid growth in deposits, and in 1903 Barney even had a huge Corinthian columned structure of Vermont marble, and a lavish banking room inside built at Fifth Avenue and 34th Street. See the pictures of that structure. It shows how things end up with rampant expansion. Growth, rampant expansion, flamboyant display, excess, crisis, panic, disaster and rescue. A cycle that repeats itself as new generations have no recollection of what had happened before, and no sense of history. With the expansion a sense of exhilaration and selfcongratulation makes way for abandonment of caution, excess, paving the way for disaster. And this hits those involved in the excess as the AIG's and the Citigroups, but also those who have gone to sleep like the GM's, and those who have some exposure like GE with its GE Capital business. What is different in today's economy, and true of the 1930's, is the global nature of this when the excesses are of a global nature, and the countries are intertwined. In this sense the current period involves Asian economies also, in addition to the European and American economies that was true in 1930's. The contrast with today is that a year later by October 1908 the panic had ended, and depositors of the Knickerbocker and other banks had received their money in full. A recovery was on the way. This was isolated to the US economy and to the banks. The global crisis of the 1930's was 23 years away. In 1997 the Asian economies like S. Korea, Thailand and Indonesia suffered a banking crisis, before this there was a finacial crisis in Mexico, and around this time a financial crisis in Russia. There were smaller crises like the LTCM crisis in the US but most were localized like the 1907 Panic. Now 11 years after the 1997 crisis in Asia, we have a global crisis and it is multifaceted, affecting banks, but also consumers and export driven economies in Europe and Asia with spillover effects. ...

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Economists at the IMF estimate that the public debt of the leading 10 industrialized countries would reach 114% of GDP by 2014, from 78% today. The governments then owe about $50,000 for each person in the country. Unlike World War II this situation is not temporary, because of the pension and health care costs of a population that is getting older. So what is to be done? Without the stimulus, the deep and prolonged recession would lead to greater damage to the finances of these countries. But continued in this manner the government would crowd out private investment and lead to lower economic growth. In some countries, Greece, Ireland, Italy Portugal and Spain it might lead to default, in other countries the real cost of the debt may be reduced through inflation. In the USA yields on 10 year Treasuries reached about 4% on June 10th, in December it was about 2%, a consequence of the economic recovery. If interest rates are allowed to rise too fast, it might abort the economic recovery. A rise in taxes is also not the answer, because in Europe the taxes are already at 40%, in America they are around 30%. But raising consumption taxes at the time when the economy was fragile, aborted a recovery in Japan during Japan's earlier crisis decade. A caution signal that says fiscal tightening can backfire, especially some years after a banking crisis when things are still in a weak condition. Some steps that can be taken are raising the retirement age, which would cut pension costs as people work longer and would boost tax revenues, and eliminating the tax deduction for home mortgage payments in the US. Its important to build credibility that the government and the legislative bodies are serious about controlling the finances and acting with prudence. In America wasteful health care spending is a priority, as this would reduce the burden on public finances considerably , and should be as much of a priority for the new Obama administration, as providing universal health care. With today's finances its not something that can be put off....

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U.S. auto sales increased by 7.5% in October 2011. Chrysler sales were up 27% in October. Its Jeep vehicles had the best sales performance in 5 years. Jeep sales were up 25% and Ram pickup sales were up 21%. Ford Motor Company sales were up 6.2%, and GM sales were up 1.7%. Sales of Ford's F- series pickup trucks were up 7% and sales of Escape sport utility vehicles were up 30%. Lincoln sales declined 11%. For GM the Cruze small car and the Equinox crossover sales were up, while Buick sales were down 7% and Cadillac 12%. Because of limited vehicle supplies Honda and Toyota showed decline in sales by 1% and 7.9% respectively. The annualized seasonally adjusted selling rate in October was 13.26 million vehicles. Reasons given for the pickup in auto sales by analysts are that buyers had held off buying in 2009 and 2010 and are now back in the market as their vehicles show signs of aging. Hyundai sales were up 23%, VW's up 39.6% and Mercedes-Benz's sales up 28%.

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The uncertainty that hangs over Iraq after the American withdrawal. Religious reconciliation and sectarian reconciliation is fragile. There is a push for autonomy in the provinces. There is a fear of Iranian backed militias in some areas. A prominent Iraqi singer says "all of Iraq is sad."

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Protests in the Iraqi parliament by leaders of the secular Iraqiya party led by Allawi against the Shiite prime minister, Maliki, over arrests in December 2011.

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Expectations of lower inflation in the U.S. for 2012. The Commerce Department showed inflation slowing with consumer prices up 2.5% over the prior year in November, down from 2.7% in October and 2.9% in September. The Labor Department's consumer price index went up by 0.8% annual rate in the last 3 months. Increase in labor costs are also mild. Hourly wages of private sector U.S. workers were up 1.8% in November 2011 over the prior year. Commodity demand in emerging markets is slowing with lower growth, which reduces pressure on commodity prices. The consumer price index is expected to rise by 1.2% in 2012, according to J.P. Morgan economists. The Federal Reserve in its recent statement after a Dec. 13 meeting stated it expects inflation at below 2%.

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Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister of Iraq, describes the situation in the country for democracy and for sectarian unity as Nuri al-Maliki begins his second term as prime minister. He points to the dire situation created in Iraq with the exclusion of elected Sunni representatives from the government of Iraq by Mr. Maliki and his sectarian based party.

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The Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Bureau of Investigation respond to inquiries by the New York Times on how adequately their agencies have responded to the financial crisis of 2008. The inquiries relate to whether these agencies have conducted the prosecutions of senior executives of financial companies that are necessary to ensure there is no recurrence of the behaviours in financial markets that led to the crisis.

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The Trump administration's early proposal for NAFTA moves away from campaign pledges to completely renegotiate the treaty, instead taking the approach of working to improve the U.S. trade position in relation to Mexico and Canada. It includes seven objectives for tougher rules for labor and the environment favored by Democrats in Congress, and it also has support from Republicans with its effort to update NAFTA for changes in technology and in other areas since the accord was signed during the Clinton administration. The area in which U.S. and Mexican business are wary is one in which the Trump administration still seeks to keep the option of imposing protective tariffs, and a border-adjusted tax to level playing field for differences in taxes, as well as other measures to protect American jobs and interests. Because any renegotiated NAFTA also has to pass both houses of Congress this proposal took into account the different constituencies and interests for this issue. Robert Lighthizer, trade representative under president Reagan is likely to become the next U.S. Trade Representative and lead negotiator. We first profiled Lighthizer in a group in Lyrarc for pointing to the need for a level playing field in trade. As early as 2010 Lighthizer argued in op-ed articles that globalization and trade practices should ensure a level playing field for the U.S., and was covered in Lyrarc. ...