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What the Indian Supreme Court failed to do was ask for accountability for the nearly 3 years lost in timely delivery of infrastructure that was to be completed in 2021 for the $3 billion Metro subway for Mumbai. Work that was moving 24 hours a day 7 days a week under Ms Ashwini Bhide was stalled and left to stagnate. This is unconscionable for a country with 1.4 billion people and most under 35 years whose aspirations get repeatedly stuck in the mud by politicians and a mentality that has itself given into the way colonial powers looked at India of being undeveloped, dirty and disorganized. Mohandas Gandhi would have a hard time understanding that Hind Swaraj that he envisioned in 1910 could lead to this kind of stagnation. Mr. Jain points out that the Indian Supreme Court has left it to the Assembly Speaker to decide on the issue of disqualification of 16 MLA's- in effect leaving the new government in place which has a majority in the Maharashtra state assembly in India. The 2 party coalition was formed between Mr. Modi's party BJP in the state, the principal driver for infrastructure and 24 X 7 development in India, and Mr. Shinde's party on 30 June 2023.  From November 2019 to June 2023 for the period of the pandemic for 2 years and 8 months the state was under a government that stalled on major infrastructure projects in the state that were being done 24 hours a day. Such as a huge project that the WSJ called "audacious" run by Ashwini Bhide at MMRC with over $2 billion from the Japan International Cooperation Agency for a new METRO subway for Mumbai taking it into the 21st century from an old broken British rail system. Unfortunately neither the Supreme Court or the press delved into the loss of 3 years that added this loss in infrastructure that was to be completed in 2021 to the losses from the pandemic. The project is back to operating 24 hours a day 7 days a week under Ms. Ashwini Bhide since the Shinde government was formed in June 2023 with pm Modi's party in the state.  ...

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Chinese president Xi's determination to make good on the slogan "Housing is for living, not for speculation," by imposing a property tax on homes in 30 cities, is facing resistance within the Communist party and from local governments. Mr Xi hopes to squeeze out the excesses of the adoption of capitalist market systems in China since 2000. China's government opted to get feedback on this idea and the feedback is largely negative forcing the government to scale it back and look at other alternatives such as affordable housing to make home purchases accessible.  Some reasons for the pushback are that it is becoming a social stability issue and risks alienating officials within the ruling party and homeowners. The fact is that 90% of urban Chinese families own their homes and housing related industry makes up about a third of China's output. Also significant is that 80% of China's wealth is tied up in real estate. What could happen is that if housing prices drop in China urban consumers might cut back on spending because they feel poorer. Party officlals advised against introducing property tax in 30 cities. Now it is scaled back to ten cities, and a new law could take till 2025 to introduce property taxes in the whole of China. Cities that are likely to be used for the property tax now are Shanghai, Chongqing, where an annual charge is levied on second homes since 2011. Cities added to the list would be Shenzen, Hangzhou, China has financed much of its industrialization through land sales by the Communist local governments in a country where land ownership was with the national Communist government after the revolution in 1949.  Mr. Xi wrote in Qiushi party journal that "we should actively and steadily promote the legislation and reform of real estate tax, and do a good job in the pilot work." Local communist governments get about one third of their revenues from selling land to property developers, and they are anxious that a tax on real estate would make demand and price for the land they sell to drop drastically. To get some idea of this- the local governments had $1 trillion in revenues last year. ...

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A major British and Indian collaboration and scientific achievement of both countries is not given the recognition it should get because of mismanaged communication of the results of clinical trials. Tom Whipple science editor of The Times says do not make the mistake of thinking oh Pfizer vaccine scores a 9 out of 10 and Oxford's a 7 or 8 out of 10. Pfizer vaccine says it 94% effective. But this is only part of the story. It is the first exam paper in a long number of exam papers and the final score will require scoring them all. "Oxford vaccine is complex, and we are happy with the complexity," says Adrian Hill, Oxford researcher and head of the Jenner Institute. It is not highly unusual in this complex field for a half first dose to work better than a full first dose in a two dose vaccine treatment. This happened with the Oxford vaccine. As a result the study results were harder to communicate. This happened by accident. Much of medical research and much of medicine's biggest breakthroughs in the last 200 years happened by accident, as one researcher looked for something and accidentally discovered something else profoundly useful. Whipple's points are turning out to be true now that Britain's medicine regulator has asked that Pfizer vaccine not be given to people with history of allergic reactions after 2 NHS workers had strong allergic reactions. A lot of questions remain for all vaccines. How long will the protection last? WIll it prevent transmission of coronavirus? Are there any other complications? Which vaccines can work without ultralow refrigeration storage? Ahead lie the prospect of billions of doses. Two are in final stages in India including Bharat Biotech request for emergency authorization. Johnson & Johnson has a competing one to Pfizer's in the U.S. As many as 30 are being developed in India and 100 around the world. Countries like South Korea say they will wait to find out which one works best and where cost overall combined with benefit is attractive. Some of the vaccines are coming out only weeks apart. The early ones could stumble, if something was missed. ...

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The protest vote in Uttar Pradesh is just that a protest vote intended to get a message that the work of the Modi government to modernize and industrialize the economy needs to be accelerated to see its effects felt in rural agricultural areas of Indian states. Modi said yesterday- "If you work for ten hours I will work for 18 hours" showing that he sees the need for acceleration, even harder work ahead to modernize and industrialize India.  Disconnect with lower caste untouchable voters called Dalits and economic distress felt from the effects of the pandemic, decades of neglect that take time to correct in one of India's largest and least industrialized states Uttar Pradesh, led to prime minister Modi failing to get most of the 80 of 543 seats as it had done in three previous elections. Lower caste Dalits form 20% of the population, other lower castes another 40% of the population and 20% are Muslim voters. With this mix of voters and the time it takes to modernize and industrialize its economy in a state that was neglected for over 60 years the Modi government's best intentions have not delivered election results in the state in 2024 after the pandemic. Delivery on schemes for sanitation, clean running water, affordable housing, cooking gas for poor households, that have brought 250 million out of poverty nationally and about 40 million in Uttar Pradesh alone, was overlooked by voters, and younger voters. This does not change the path of modernization that countries such as China have taken and which require a strong administration with full public support working with industry and all parts of society to build infrastructure and manufacturing rapidly over 15-20 years. In China this happened from 1990 to 2010. In India this will take 2014- 2030 to achieve. In Bihar, UP, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, in all these states with large areas of backwardness in development the only path to realize the aspirations of the people is the path offered for modernization by prime minister Modi. The protest vote of 2024 is then a way of saying to prime minister Modi that the level of development needs only to be accelerated to see its benefits for hundreds of million of people in rural agricultural areas. ...

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Britain, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand have redefined citizenship so that it is along blood lines, and not birthright citizenship. The 14th Amendment of the US Constitution was passed by Congress in 1866 and ratified by the States in 1868. It uses the words-"All persons born or naturalised in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction therof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside."  The US Supreme Court will have to interpret this language and intent of the Amendment whether they intended it to apply to children of unauthorized migrants coming illegally into the country. At the time it was passed after the Civil War it was intended to emancipate freed black slaves and give children of freed slaves citizenship and rights. Congress, the States and the Supreme Court will have to consider whether the situation intended to be addressed in 14th Amendment was slavery and not the refugees and economic driven illegal migrants flowing in at the rate of 1-2 million a year as happened in 2021-2023. The Supreme Court in its Wong Kim Ark decision in 1898 supported the 14th Amendment at a time when illegal entry into the US was a tiny fraction of what it is today.   The 14th Amendment included under Section 4 on Debt the words- "Neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void." The 14th Amendment was  in its intent designed to complete the work of the Civil War to free black slaves and give them the rights of citizenship. The 14th Amendment to the US Constitution Section 1 says- "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside. No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws." ...

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Annamaria Andriotis does enormous service to millions of borrowers for student loans by putting down in simple payments terms everybody can understand the approach to take for a university education. She points out the pitfalls in taking federal loans and following the advice of the student loan office. The federal student loans have an origination fee of about 4.2%, so even if you pay off the loan early you are stuck with the origination cost, which private lenders such as major banks do not normally charge. On a $100,000 loan this could be $4200 right off the beginning, reducing the loan to $95,800. Private lenders offer fixed rates also at attractive terms of about 4%-4.25%, with added reduction of 0.25 to 0.5% for loans with automatic payment. The lenders include Wells Fargo, Suns Trust. It is important to have good credit ratings. Scores of over 700 or 720 in credit ratings provide the most attractive rates, yet a good credit rating is also acceptable. FICO scores range from 350 to 850 for credit ratings. Added reduction of quarter to half percentage point for automatic payment. A loan for $100,000 taken with Federal PLUS loan and government guarantees could run 7.21% for fixed rate. Andriotis points out that compared to the $4586 payment on a $100,000 student fixed rate private loan at 4.25% for 10 years, a federal guaranteed PLUS loan at fixed rate of 7.21% for 10 years would cost $3541 more over the life of the loan. Mortgage loans for 30 year fixed rate jumbo loan is about 4.14%. In September 2014, the rates for jumbo mortgage loans offered by private banks are now converging at the 4.18% for conventional mortgage loans. For auto loans zero percent financing from auto company lenders such as Toyota Financial are a better option. Rates of 2% on auto loans may be available from private banks and credit unions. SunTrust Banks has an online lending division LightStream that is offering personal loans to borrowers having good credit ratings scores, with interest rates of as low as 1.99%. The borrowers with excellent scores can get the unsecured option at the best rate of 1.99%. Credit unions are offering lower auto loan rates of 2.64% and 2.74% compared to banks charging average of 4.79% and 4.9%, according to data from SNL Financial. Millions of borrowers with good credit ratings, especially for student loans, need to start early in checking out the rates and shopping for the best rate. A good credit rating of parents can enable a student to make a huge difference in payments for undergraduate or postgraduate education, and avoid the unnecessary burden of high interest rate loans in a low interest rate environment....

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This WSJ editorial says the Indian government will have to do more to increase the growth rate. Rising inflationary pressures at 5% for core inflation are still present, with inflation in food prices running higher at 10%. Which may be the reason after a cut of 0.5%, Reserve Bank of India Governor Subbarao stated this would be all the country should expect for some time.

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Russia's central bank revises the initial figure of $500 million for rescue of Trust Bank to $2 billion, and an additional six year loan of about $550 million to go to an "investor" bank to take control of Trust Bank. State controlled VTB Bank will receive $2 billion and Gazprombank $1.4 billion in government help, according to Mr. Siluanov, Russia's Finance Minister. So far the Russian government has approved $20 billion for rescue in the banking system. Foreign currency reserves have declined by $16 billion to $398.9 billion, according to figures released by the central bank on Dec. 26, 2014. The Russian government plans to use the foreign currency holdings of Rosneft, Gazprom and other large state controlled exporting companies in 2015 to support the ruble. Mr. Siluanov says the government will need to look at its budget again to reduce spending, including military spending. His predecessor Alexei Kudrin called for reducing military spending to ensure stable finances long before this crisis....

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Andrew Kramer reports from the front near the city of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine with signs of a breakdown in the second Minsk accord. Following the breakdown of the Minsk agreement of September 2014 by February 2015, with fighting around the town of Debaltseve, leaders of Russia, Germany, France and the separatist eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk met again in Minsk, Belarus, on Feb 11, 2015. This led to the second Minsk Agreement and a ceasefire. This agreement called for release of prisoners, a zone to separate the soldiers on each side, constitutional reforms for decentralization in Ukraine giving autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk areas, and monitoring by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Minsk II agreement is under strain as the economic blockade by Kiev, and separatist violations of the ceasefire, have created a tense situation by June 2015. The second Minsk agreement was reached under pressure from the U.S. saying it would send arms to the government in Kiev if Russia continued to send troops into Ukraine, and Germany seeking to avoid a further escalation of the conflict. In the background the U.S. and the EU continued economic sanctions on Russia, and the Russian economy suffered from a decline in oil prices as a result of Saudi pricing decisions....

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Even with Brexit out of the way the Labour party has to worry that over 60% of people over the age of 65 years voted Conservative. The high percentage of older voters voting Conservative in ever larger numbers cannot make up for the young vote that Labour attracts with stands on climate change and other issues such as wages.

Older voters even in towns in the north of England, including pensioners are much better off and not that much different than traditional Conservative voters in their cultural attitudes. This will remain an obstacle for the Labour party in Britain after losses in three elections. After the NHS funding and infrastructure spending issues were neutralized by the Conservatives under Johnson, issues around cultural attitudes and patriotic sentiment play a big part particularly for older voters.

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The Biden administration policy is similar to the Trump administration. The response is to send migrants back to their home countries. One of the lessons for the European Union and for the US of the last few years is that the US and EU cannot have migrants issue create discord within public opinion, when so much needs to be done for infrastructure, competition with Asian countries such as China, and the needs for recovery from the pandemic. With wars, natural disasters, smuggling of migrants, new waves of migrants required a different approach. Promoting development and providing help to the economies of these countries is seen as a more effective approach, and the best way to do this is to help strengthen America and the European Union by building a consensus on development and infrastructure investment.

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The pandemic exposed Germany's digitization infrastructure weaknesses. A lot will need to change in education in Germany to meet new upheavals as digitization changes the nature of work in the job market. Digitization, automation, and rise of electromobility, knowledge economy will change how the world and Germany works. More and more knowledge work means Germany will need to change its education in many fields. Some experts say it is the political failing of the state that digital education is not a subject in schools. In the car industry alone the rise of electromobility could cost 200,000 jobs a result of a study by Ifo for car industry association VDA. New jobs will be created in other professions and industries as many as 2.1 million jobs in health, training, teaching, management and administration.

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California introduces vaccine mandate for all school children. All schoolchildren from elementary school to high school will have to get vaccinated once the government completes full approval of vaccines for children. The government has fully approved children's vaccine for over 16 years and emergency authorization for 12-15 years old children. California's governor Newsom has taken this step for vaccine mandates after defeating a recall effort for governor recently.

Also helping reach this decision is the result in Los Angeles School district, where the vaccine mandate for all school children over 12 years has resulted in cutting by half the number of daily infections of schoolchildren. Schools reopened in Los Angles last month and this is an encouraging sign that schools can be kept open with the right policies.

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Nature Conservancy reports that trees planted in cities reduce particulate matter by between 7% and 24%.  Particulate matter are microscopic particles we breathe in when there is polluted air from automobiles, factories, or smoking. The cooling effect is about 2 degrees centigrade or 3.6 degrees fahrenheit. Outdoor air pollution causes asthma and other lung diseases, and led to premature deaths of about 3 million people in 2012, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Hospitalization from high pollution levels is another major problem, especially in poor and middle income nations, such as Brazil, Mexico, India, China and Indonesia. Air Flow should be considered when planting trees in congested urban areas. Cities in the west also benefit from tree planting, and London has benefitted from the park spaces and tree planting.

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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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US Undersecretary of Defense, James Clapper Jr., secured approval for the release of the figure of $80.1 billion, for the amount spent by intelligence agencies in the USA. The National Intelligence Program, operated by the CIA and other agencies reporting to the Director of National Intelligence spent $53.1 billion. The Military Intelligence Program spent $27 billion. By comparison the Department of Homeland Security spent $42.6 billion and the State Department spent $48.9 billion.

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Obama's politics of consensus face a test as some of the issues before the country require strong leadership in the face of competing interests, intense lobbying, and politics as usual. Wavering support from supporters during the primaries, as leadership is delegated to Congress heavily influenced by lobbying on healthcare. And loss of support from the centre and independents who are unconvinced by the lack of clear direction and the tendency for the debate to be carried by competing interests. These independents are also concerned about the costs of a not well thought out plan influenced too much by rival interests.

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Rina Bliss, a professor of sociology at Rutgers, says while AI can bring information to kids it cannot make them think. To truly learn children will have to do it themselves and in interaction with teachers, parents and other children. She took the approach of a scientist and let her two children try out AI tools and software and came to this conclusion. One reason she says is that AI is based on computational intelligence and the human mind and brain are not quantifiable. The brain is flowing like a river and always learning from its environments.  There is a social environmental piece says Marin, there is interaction, there is a drive to know and connect, curiosity and passion that are part of learning.  Basically AI is developed through taking vast amounts of information collecting it and ordering it in a certain way. How each originator of the AI orders it affects how it will work. And what is in the basket of information collected will affect how it will work. There is no thinking brain outside of the human originator who put a particular version together. Like every piece of software there are implicit or explicit instructions on how to use the basket of information collected that is put in by an originator who developed the AI software. For these reasons it will only do basic tasks and is not intended for complex tasks that involve thinking processes and social-emotional aspects of human behaviour. The risks of using it begin to grow as soon as it is used for tasks it was never intended to perform such as replacing the human thinking  processes and the socio-emotional aspects of these processes.  If it is used to do things it was never intended for, the larger the activities it performs, the larger the mistakes and risks it it is liable to make or create. If it is assigned the task of transportation for a country, it will at some point be asked to think and at that point it will fail to make the right decisions, making the risks grow exponentially, very, very fast, leading to disaster. ...

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The Public-Private Investment Program of the U.S. Treasury Department has not had a good start. With most banks passing the U.S.government's stress tests and raising $50 billion in the markets, PPIP which was intended to to help resolve the situation of all the toxic securites siting on the bank's books, has gone the way of all the prior efforts to solve this problem. Simply postponed this time hoping that the housing market recovers. With the Rogoff-Reinhardt study showing that it takes about 6 years or longer before housing recovers from such aserious crisis as this one, it would be 2012, before one sees an improvement. See the link to the Business Week analysis that shows housing markets in the USA having some aspect of normalcy in 2012. Yet even this analysis is using an optimistic scenario, because it assumes Moodys Economy.com estimates of economic growth for GDP of 4-5% in 2011- 2012. This assumes the consumer debt that has reached over 100% of GDP will be reversed quickly in 2010, and the the factory capacity utilization currently at 68% and expected to drop further in 2009- with more automobile manufacturing capacity remaining to be scrapped -will recover quickly in 2010-2011. This is unrealistic considering the combination of factors at work. Here Devin Leonard talks to PIMCO chief Bill Gross, who with Warren Buffett and PIMCO CEO Mohammed El-Erian, are key proponents of the PPIP program. Both El-Erian and Warren Buffett say they conceived independently of such a program, in which toxic securties are taken off bank's books with government help. As PIMCO is one of the largest traders of mortgage bonds in the country and has years of successful experience in dealing with mortgage bonds, the New York Fed under Geithner turned to PIMCO for advice in 2008. By this time PIMCO was under ownership of Allianz, a German insurer, which bought PIMCO for $3.3 billion in 2000, with $233 million and a $40 million retention bonus going to Bill Gross. Bill Gross describes how the program would function. PIMCO puts up $500 million, and Treasury matches this with $500 million. Analysts estimate that this partnership would be able to attract as much as $ 4 billion in low interest financing from Treasury and the Fed. Gross says that some of these securities pay as much as 14% interest, and even with a 70% default rate, this partnership could make $250 million a year on the $5 billion partnership, or a 5% return, with PIMCO making a 25% return on its original investment. This isn't exactly pro bono work as Buffett had originally suggested to Bill Gross in the midst of the crisis. But a more fundamental concern is that no one really knows exactly how much of toxic securties the banks have on their books, even though estimates have been made. If this is closer to $1 trillion, PIMCO's expertise and efforts will simply fall short of dealing with a problem of this size, and the window dressing of a problem of this magnitude could only hurt efforts for the eventual resolution of this problem. If housing does not recover as is expected till 2012 at the earliest, and the economy continues to deteriorate in unemployment and factory utilization, then the toxic securities on the bank's balance sheets may pose a bigger problem that will require serious action....

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Frederick Harris of Columbia University says there is a price to be paid for a black president and it may just be too much for the average black person. There is a difference betwen symbols and substance, betwen a role model and accountability in a representative democracy, which is sadly lacking when the black elites, clergy and politicians fail to debate the issues about the problems facing the black community. Problems related to the increasing poverty among black Americans, and the 14% unemployment for black people. There is he says a strange reticience among the black elite to hold the president accountable on these issues just as they would have done for any Democratic president, even one who was as popular with blacks as Mr. Clinton. He says the experience with Obama is not even remotely comparable to the transformative nature of the work of Rev. Martin Luther King in the black community. It may stem from Obama's multiracial background, growing up in many countries, his elite education and being part of a liberal elite more than of the black community. The price is too high in economic and social terms for the poor or average black person and it has created a divide between the average black person and the black elite, with different concerns and different priorities. Harris points out that poor and poverty are words not mentioned often by Obama. Related to this is the foreclosure crisis in which ordinary black people were hardest hit with no effective help from the president to homeowners badly needing relief. Sheila Bair of the FDIC and Martin Feldstein advocated aggressive help for homeowners under water which did not come from the president. Showing not just the limits of a black presidency, but false hopes, inexperience and lack of leadership in issues that mattered to all Americans in the housing and foreclosure crisis. A populist from Kansas, as Sheila Bair describes herself, had the right instincts and courage of convictions which the president lacked and the entire country needed....

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Gen. Martin Dempsey took a cautious approach to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Syria. He did not approve of the way Gen. McChrystal expanded U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, and the hasty manner in which the Iraqi army was trained under his predecessors leading to some commanders being appointed who later became members of sectarian death squads. Under his command the U.S. limited its role in Afghanistan and Iraq and handed more responsibility to local forces. Gen. Dunford who succeeded Dempsey as chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff for the U.S. follows the cautious approach set by Dempsey. Dempsey's approach extends to what he believes is an Heisenberg effect in physics where when you you observe or touch something it changes the way it functions and operates. For critics such as Senator McCain, who served in Vietnam as a pilot, if Dempsey did not want to intervene in some country, he could invent the reasons not to get involved. President Obama exceeded the caution exercized by Dempsey, leading to a situation where the U.S. after hasty action under a Republican president seemed to lurch in the opposite direction under his Democratic successor by not taking action where U.S. presence was needed, followed by a corrective course to make up for this....

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Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri says-

"We intend to be able to cooperate in co-designing the reactors, co-developing them and co-producing them, we feel this will allow us to tackle complications faced in other conventional projects," he said. This approach to build smaller modular reactors because it comes with less cost and which can be reassembled at the usage site is a new field. 

India is putting $1.2 billion in nuclear research.

India sets goal for 100GW of nuclear energy 2047.

Five Indian built nuclear reactors by 2033.

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The heroic effort by Portugal's diplomat Sousa Mendes in Bordeaux, France. He issued 30,000 Portuguese visas to people persecuted by the Nazis before and after the invasion of France 1939-1940.

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India makes the largest deal for commercial aircraft in aviation history by buying 470 planes from Airbus and Boeing. 250 Airbus jets and 220 Boeing airplanes. American Airlines ordered 460 planes in 2011. WSJ says based on list prices the Boeing orders is for $45.9 billion and the total order is for $85 billion. The White House announced the Boeing deal. The Airbus deal was announced by pm Modi and France's president Macron. The purchase was made by Air India. India is now the fastest growing aviation market in the world.

Airbus increased deliveries by 6%, and Boeing by 41% in 2022, as air travel and aircraft sales increased following the pandemic.