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Reliance Industries and the huge increase in the price of shares in all the Reliance family enterprieses in oil and communications.

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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A key takeaway from the UN Population report in 2023 is the youthfulness of India's population. India has 1.428 billion people in 2023. 26% of this is in the 10-24 year age group. As much as 68% is in the 15-64 years age group. The fertility rate now at 2.0 is less than the replacement rate of 2.1. This is the number of children each woman has in her lifetime.

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Bharat Biotech and Biological E. are two companies developing vaccines in India. Bharat Biotech has asked for emergency authorization for use of its vaccine. Other Indian companies that have asked for emergency authorization are Pfizer India and Serum Institute of India. The foreign envoys will be flown to Hyderabad to be briefed on the vaccine readiness at Bharat Biotech and Biological E. In all 30 of 100 vaccines under development are being developed in India. India is a pioneer in vaccine development and manufacturing. Because of its huge population of 1.5 billion for India and Bangladesh, India has from the early years after independence in 1947 pursued a course of developing its own R&D and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and vaccines, so that the large population can have access to medicine at a low price.

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With an extraordinary sentiment for China's people Joe Stilwell showed America as different from the colonial powers of which Japan was a part with its occupation of Korea and China in 1930-1945. America should recognize and be proud of men like  Joe Stilwell who commanded all American Forces in China and the Asian sector in World War II. Such forced labor as shown in Tuchman's book "Stilwell and the American Experience in China," was never seen in its human aspect. Stilwell was the first American to understand the ordinary Chinese people struggles of that period. He participated in their struggles, once even hid himself in Chinese freight trains in the 1930's to collect intelligence about Japanese intentions in northern China.  The war conditions for the Imperial Japanese war effort railway built through dense jungle between Rangoon and Bangkok in 1942-43. Tamil Indian and Indonesian laborers who died working on the railway are remembered here. 250,000 romusha or forced laborers of whom 90,000 died were Asian Indian. A much smaller number were Britishers and European POW's 12,000 in number immortalized in Bridge over the River Kwai, a movie about this period. Till now most of the Indian laborers remained obscure like so many millions obscure in the history books about the colonial period for Indonesia and India, with a population now numbering 1.7 billion people in the world. China with 1.2 billion people suffered the same fate in bombings by Imperial Japanese forces that rampaged across China in the war years. Such forced labor as shown in Tuchman's book "Stilwell and the American Experience in China," was never seen in its human aspect. Stilwell was the first American to understand the ordinary Chinese people struggles of that period. He participated in their struggles, once even hid himself in Chinese freight trains in the 1930's to collect intelligence about Japanese intentions in northern China.  ...

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Rates are increasing in the $4 trillion repurchase agreement market. The repurchase agreement market or repos market is the main source of short term funding for firms in the financial markets. Borrowers put up Treasury securities as collateral. The difference beween the value of the collateral and the cash loan amount is known as the "haircut." The current collateral requirement is $102 of Treasurys for $100 in cash loan. If the U.S. is downgraded to AA the collateral could go up to $103 or higher. This would lead to firms coming up with more Treasury securities for loans. The rate for overnight transactions also goes up. The rate was up form 0.01 % to 0.1% in the last week. The result could be dislocation in financial markets as firms have to come up with more collateral and pay higher repo rates, and some firms prefer to hold cash.

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In 2032 construction begins of new US Chesapeake Bay Bridge in Maryland at estimated $15 billion with 4 lanes each way and a shoulder, taller than originally planned. A new bridge for the Francis Scott Key Bridge that collapsed is also planned as the Nation revamps its old aging crumbling infrastructure. A bicycle and pedestrian path for $1 billion is also being considered. The old bridge has no shoulders.

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Pep Guardiola on Manchester City after the Uruguayan Valverde's hat trick and the 3-0 loss to Real Madrid. Pep says -"I've always said when we arrive in the last 10 games every team plays for something - for relegation, for Europa League, for Conference League, for Champions League, to be champions. It's normal, every game." Manchester City now face West Ham United in March 2026.

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The New Popular Front in France is a group of socialist partties that include the Socialist Party of former president Mitterand, the France Unbowed of Jean Melenchon, other left parties, and the Greens. NFP has put out its economic plan for France, RN National Rally has not. NFP puts out the details that can make it possible to raise the minimum wage in France to euros 1600 a month. And to invest in France's aging infrastructure the way Biden is doing in the US. About $100-$150 billion needed for the economic plan would come from contributions and taxes of the wealthiest similar to Biden's plan in the US. It also rejects the so called neo liberal thinking and culture that has become entrenched in France, in Europe and in the US where infrastructure is failing, public services are failing yet the wealthiest are not paying their fair share in taxes so that the countries of Europe and America can be rebuilt and renewed, to provide a better life for all.

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Presenting the ReARM package in Brussels the European Union president Von der Leyen says- “This is a moment for Europe and we are ready to step up.” The proposals Leyen said “could mobilise close to €800bn of defence expenditures for a safe and resilient Europe." About $650 billion comes from increasing the European spending on defense by 1.5% of GDP from numbers below 2% that reflected underspending on defense. The EU will loosen strict deficit rules. The CDU coalition government in Germany with SPD under Merz that is being setup will remove the debt brake in the German Constitution that limits defense spending to 1%.  Another $150 billion in loans can be generated from joint EU borrowing that could be given to countries. That will Leyen says- “It will help member states to pool demand and to buy together. This will reduce costs, reduce fragmentation, increase interoperability and strengthen our defence industrial base.” The European Investment Bank will participate in the lending. ...

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Gregory Zuckerman report in the WSJ on Jan 15, 2008 commented on the bets against housing that netted $3 billion to $5 billion for a financial firm that bet against subprime mortgages at the right time. It also commented on Alan Greenspan who joined the firm as an adviser after engineering a period of low interest rates that created conditions in the housing market for such speculative boom bust behaviour. The 2009 financial crisis marked a period of 10-15 years when the US lost its competitive advantage against China as a result of such speculation and poor leadership at the central bank. And leadership from the Reagan presidency in 1980 through 2009 that defunded infrastructure, manufacturing and public goods services in favor of deregulation and financial firms.