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With the strong positions taken by Clinton and Trump on China in the 2016 election campaign, U.S. relations with China enter a new phase. The strident tone in the campaign on China on trade deficit, women's issues, human rights, comes with the issues relating to China's role in the South China Sea and cyber espionage already in the background.

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Cuts in Medicare payments for drugs is feared by the pharmaceutical industry, as Democrats take control of Congress.

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U.S. president Obama invited NYT's columnist Thomas Friedman to the White House for an interview on Saturday afternoon April 4, 2015. Here Friedman gives president Obama's response to his questions, and Obama's concerns about the heated rhetoric in the U.S. and Israel on the negotiations with Iran detracting and distracting from his key goals of protecting U.S. interests and Israel. On the Sunni states, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, Obama points out that there are some tough conversations needed about changes inside their societies which pose a greater threat to the governments than Iran. Obama says he understands perfectly that Israel and the Jewish people after their experience of the last hundred years are determined to not let Iran develop a nuclear weapon, and their right to be concerned that the agreement could let Iran clandestinely develop one. Obama says the verification is extensive and covers any facility in Iran, any suspicion about secret facilities, yet it leaves the subsequent decisions if Iran created difficulties, to a international body over which the U.S., UK, France, have no control. This is a principal issue for critics of the negotiated agreement. No mention is made of why Iran simply discarded the option of sending the atomic material to Russia to be processed into nuclear rods for the Bushehr nuclear plant built by Russia only a few days before the final outline was developed. And why the U.S., with allies Germany, France, UK and Japan, did not offer the Iranians an economic aid package if needed in return for the billions Iranians invested for that atomic material, to ensure that the atomic materials are shipped out of the country- to create a nuclear agreement that would be credible to all parties. The economic aid would benefit Iran modernize its oil industry, including refining operations, meet basic import needs, and provide tangible proof to the Iranian people of our best intentions for the future, that president Obama strongly espouses in the interview. The interview does show the quandary president Obama faces in Iran for strong action, that is a result of failed policies with Iran since the Eisenhower administration's intervention 1953 during the Cold War that displaced the elected government of Mosaddegh in Iran and setup the Shah's regime in 1956, the support of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in the war against Iran, which Obama mentions in this intervew. In the light of the repeated failures of the U.S. policies a Democratic party leader faces increasing reservations for taking strong action against Iran's development of nuclear weapons capabilities, preferring to exhaust every diplomatic channel, and take risks in the hope that time will give the Iranian people an opportunity to to reintegrate in the global community and pursue the peaceful development of nuclear energy. This strain in president Obama's thinking is evident throughout the interview with Friedman. Other aspects of president Obama's policy in the Middle East shared in the interview are about supporting the Sunni states in some areas, and Iran in some areas, at the same time as the nuclear issue is "put in a box" and separated from the regional conflicts. Friedman presents this as the Obama doctrine, yet it appears to be coming after a series of improvisations in foreign policy following a failure to act in 2011-2013, when the "once in a lifetime" opportunities presented by the Arab Spring were not taken up by the Obama administration, leading to the region's current disintegration....

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As remedies for the $1.6 trillion federal budget deficit for 2010, which says Hubbard threatens to compromise Americas economic future, set agggressive targets for reducing discretionary spending limiting growth to 2%. Hubbard also wants to see 1% reduction in projected entitlement spending growth for Social Security and Medicare. This can be done progressively, he says, by lowering the growth in spending for middle and upper income households and strengthening the safey net for lower income people. And third he would have a broad based consumption tax to pay for added social spending. Hubbard was adviser to president George W. Bush and is Dean at Columbia Business School.

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Peter Orszag's role in the healthcare debate and the formulation of health care policy proposals. One proposal of Orszag, who heads the Congressional Budget Office, is to set up a new agency with powers to cut spending and implement changes in Medicare. Says Orszag, "one of the reasons we have such disjointed and skewed incentives is that we have an excessively political process." At a recent meeting with House Democrats, one Congresswoman said her top priority is winning higher payments for oxygen suppliers, and Orszag was taken aback. For years officials have been trying to cut payments to oxygen and medical equipment suppliers, which are said to be inflated. When a new competitive bidding process was set to take effect last year, industry supporters in Congress were able to delay the plan, and these supporters are still fighting to block changes says the WSJ. Here is a 40 year old Orszag, with degrees from Princeton and London School of Economics, who got his early experience in the Clinton adminstration at age 24. He then followed this with a number of policy oriented jobs, ending with appointment to head CBO in 2007. And he faces the whole system of Congressmen from both parties beholden to interests in the healthcare industry, who provide the donations for them to finance their election campaigns. Dan Eggen describes this in the Washington Post, 7/21/2009. Max Baucus of Montana, and to some extent Grassley of Iowa, are senators from both parties who Eggen points out are beholden to the healthcare industry because of large donations they receive from the interests in the healthcare industry. These interests want to see their payments system protected. The further escalation in health care costs, which would make the whole healthcare system unaffordable even as it delivers poor results, can only be prevented by making cost control an exercize that is not influenced by healthcare industry donations. Jackie Calmes describes the huge hurdles in achieving a deficit neutral move to universal health care in the U.S. in the NYT 6/26/2009. See the link. The exchange between Grassley and Orszag on the issue of the $177 billion in savings needed from the payments to health insurers under the Medicare managed care plans- which allow seniors to obtain Medicare coverage outside the government run program -went as follows. These are dubbed overpayments by outside experts and efforts have been made to cut them in Congress. When Mr Grassley raised concerns about the impact of such cuts in a hearing, -and Grassley has opposed the cut for this overpayment to insurers- Orszag responded saying: "I very firmly believe that capitalism is not founded on excessively high subsidies to private firms. This is what this system delivers right now." ...

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The Obama administration denied approval for the TransCanada Keystone pipeline. President Obama made it clear that the decision was made because of the "arbitrary" February approval deadline imposed by Republicans in Congress, and said this "is not a judgement on the merits of the pipeline." The administration suggested that TransCanada reapply. TransCanada CEO Russ Girling says the company is "fully committed to the construction of Keystone XL, and that it "will reapply for a presidential permit and expect a new application would be processed in an expedited manner to allow for an in-service date of late 2014." Experts say the U.S. could reuse some of the studies and analyses and that the process would take 18-24 months. Alberta's premier, Alison Redford, says she believes the project will get approved.

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This report in The Times remembers Alex Ferguson, manager of soccer team Manchester United for the wonderful way he motivated his players, by appealing to players hearts. One player who went through that period under Alex remembers Sir Alex talk about the work ethic of shipyard workers and miners, the culture of Manchester United, the importance of making your family proud, and not "letting yourself down."

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Thoughts about the U.S. election and life on a small island called Matinicus 20 miles off the coast of Maine. Eva Murray who runs the election as clerk, runs the solid waste program, operates a bakery from her house, works as a freelance writer, and is a certified pilot and emergency medical technician. One can get to the island by plane. The ferry runs about 30 times a year.

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Women are represented more in lower paid part time jobs and have borne more of child care responsibilities by two thirds than men according to ONS in Britain. Women spend more time than men on nondevelopmental care of children and average about 3 hours 18 minutes each day during the pandemic. The pandemic puts greater strain on working mothers and mothers who lost pay during the coronavirus layoffs.

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Moderna, J&J, Pfizer in the U.S., Sanofi in France, AstraZeneca in Britain, have accelerated their efforts to have a vaccine ready by the fall.  Moderna and Pfizer use new technologies. Astra Zeneca is working with Oxford University on a vaccine that builds on existing technologies. Both AstraZeneca and Sanofi are building capacity to make hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine. 

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Homelessness is a major issue in Portland and in the Oregon governors race in US. This and the legalization by referendum of small quantities of hard drugs has pulled Nike cofounder into the race to support a Republican Ms. Drazan. He first supported an independent Ms. Johnsons, and now has shifted support to Ms. Drazan. Republicans control only Alaska of the western states in the US. 

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Deutsche Bank plans a share sale for 8 billion euros in 2017 after being hurt by legal settlements and a decision to reverse the sale of retail unit Postbank. Its deal advisory business and corporate finance unit is being merged with its trading unit. Shares have recovered somewhat from a low of 10 euros in September 2016. Share price is 19.14 euros on March 5, 2017.

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The no confidence motion against Theresa May in the Conservative Party has created an irrevocable split in the party, say editors of The Times. Theresa May's leadership is weakened by the attacks from the conservative wing of her party, which has not accepted the realities of Brexit and British withdrawal from the European Union that would hurt trade, the economy, and create contentious issues over Ireland.

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In a effort to boost slowing economies in the European Union, the head of the European Central Bank, Mr. Draghi, announces interest rates will remain unchanged till 2020. He also announced a fresh stimulus, offering cheap loans to jumpstart the economy. Economic growth forecasts were cut to 1.1% for 2019 down from 1.7% earlier. Growth of just 0.2% in the last quarter of 2018 prompted action by the ECB.

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Los Angeles and New York city with about 15% of the workforce in creative freelancing jobs where people work two, three, or four jobs to pay the bills, are being hurt by high unemployment. These jobs have little job protection and require people to leave their homes during coronavirus. This includes performers, production crews, ride share drivers, personal trainers and others. Los Angeles area unemployment has reached 21%.

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Hannes Swoboda of Austria, a member of the European parliament, and president of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European parliament, makes the case for investment in growth and employment as the only way forward for Europe. Tax revenues generated from growth and employment would help reduce deficits, in addition to taxes such as a financial transactions tax.

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The U.S. House of Representatives votes 285-144 to suspend the debt ceiling till Feb. 7, 2014. The deal forged in the Senate by Democrat Reid and Republican McConnell passed in th Senate by 81-18. The U.S. stock markets closed with the DJIA at 15374, up 1.6% compared to Sept 30 when the government shutdown began. The Republicans opposing the passage outnumbered those supporting it 144 to 87 in the House of Representatives. Because this was a repeat of similiar failure to reach agreement and last minute deals in 2012 and 2011 the equity markets appear to have taken the conflict between the two parties in stride.

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The strong showing by National Front leader Marie Le Pen and her focus on the economy in France, and the lack of growth with austerity measures, is likely to change the way the eurozone countries respond to the deficits and German insistence on austerity cuts. Marie Le Pen's economic positions for more government spending to reduce unemployment and provide additional benefits is closer to Socialist candidate Hollande's position. The right wing party in Holland also voiced the same concern recently- that it did not want to hurt Dutch pensioners with austerity cuts- when it refused to support the Dutch government leading to its collapse and new elections.

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Clint Eastwood talks about stuff in politics, real people, in a way that is humorous, and is asked about his various roles in movies he has made that show relations between countries and races. He recalls the time playing golf with the president and another real estate billionaire, when both told him within earshot of the other that all the real estate deals that the other was making would go bad. This he says was funny. In all this he was always the lone guy, as in the movies. This guy is 89 and he has still got stuff for some interesting movies, and he has ideas about the country and what it needs.  Mr Eastwood was mayor of a little town in coastal California in 1986 for 2 years. And yes he did not like all the regulation in the state. He tells about his removing one in the city that banned the public sale of ice cream, besides drinking a lot of tea and chatting with everyday folks. Most have forgotten and others simply from a new generation. The 2008 movie Gran Torino is one in which a Korean War veteran faces up to immigrants from Laos in an inner Detroit suburb. And what happens? Eastwood says people liked this one that grossed $270 million because it showed how someone with views at one extreme could learn more and shift to the other extreme just from seeing and talking to different people who you have not encountered before. Eastwood portrayed the American male when it was a kind of manliness unabashed. The thing about Eastwood is  that he he is sensitive to all that this meant in an intelligent thoughtful way that takes us by surprise. Some of these characters he played did not have the niceties, abrupt he calls it or that gruffness of masculineness, even a bit dumb. Talking about relations between countries and of race Eastwood had some ideas to make the Japanese language "Letters from Iwo Jima" - to give the view of what it was like for a Japanese soldier sent out from the islands to Iwo Jima. The famous battle was one he did from the American point of view in "Flags of Our Fathers." About that Japanese soldier he is sent out and told that he wasn't ever coming back. It won Japan's equivalent of an Academy Award. The interview in the WSJ with Varadarajan closes with Eastwood feeling  for the genteel ways, not calling names out loud, of an older time, without the masculinity that he himself portrayed, or only appeared to be that way when in reality he was intelligent and sensitive to other people and their ways. Perhaps that former mayor of New York, says Eastwood, offering his own idea of a switch back to older genteel ways for the country.   ...

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During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.

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Women in a 2011 group studied by Peter Cappelli of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Monika Hamori and Rocio Bonet of the IE Business School in Madrid, show increasing numbers of women and foreign educated managers in top positions at large corporations. Mary Barra of GM and Satya Nadella of Microsoft are two of the prominent names appointed recently. Women now have 18% of the top positions at large U.S. corporations and foreign educated have 11% in this 2011 group. The numbers would be expected to be higher in 2014 with an acceleration in this trend. On average it takes women 28 years to reach these positions compared to 29 for men. A big dropoff is noticed in the study for women in the corporate promotion track who are middle managers for a few years.

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The Gallois Report commissioned by the new government in France to restore France's manufacturing competitiveness. Louis Gallois is the former head of aerospace firm EADS. It calls for a 30 billion euro cut in payroll taxes to help French companies compete in global markets. Gallois proposes 22 main measures to "stop the slide and support the economy." He called this a "competitiveness shock." Gallois points to France's 70 billion euro trade deficit in contrast to booming German exports. The cost to the economy was 2 million French jobs over 3 decades, says the report. Unemployment today is around 10%. Measures suggested include the payroll tax cuts of 1.5% of GDP for salaries upto 4900 euros a month, and employee representatives to sit on board of directors of French companies similiar to Germany.

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Issues raised by the huge mismatch between revenues and investment for AI. $400 billion estimated investment by 5 Tech firms in 2025 alone with revenue of about $40 billion and huge uncertainty about when AI will produce returns. Articles seen this week of November 17 in the WSJ and NYT on this issue, podcasts, discussions in other media outlets. Could this lead to a dot com bubble type economic crisis? Could that lead to a recession? Alongside these articles another article in the WSJ on Nov 17 shows the benefits small firms get by using AI, benefits which are on the fringes of their business, not essential but with some experimenting firm owners/managers able to tweak AI information for use in business. Nothing significant which firms will pay much money for. The uncertainty is a major factor. Should geopolitics trump all these concerns? Is the competition with China require this scale of investment, and is China following a more utilitarian approach as reported in a WSJ article this month, of investing in AI in a utilitarian way targeting its use in improving manufacturing, improving infrastructure, and not wildly throwing money at experimental uses that are unlikely to yield much result. In geopolitical sense would the country that not only promoted AI but used it efficiently and cost effectively, used it in ways that promote the overall public good, get the WIN. In short it behooves everyone of us to ask hard questions of AI, to dehype the hype, to look for the public good that comes out of this from it's efficient use. To ask the tough questions when $400 billion generates only $40 billion in 2025 and the $3 trillion planned investment over 5 years is half unfunded, is it going to crowd out energy needs for homes and business, push renewable energy targets back, crowd out essential investments in the crumbling aging infrastructure of the US and Europe, crowd out essential investments in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, that hold better promise for our People. Will it also put retirees at risk when corporate bonds from retirees money fund the unfunded portion of AI? This means making the political dimension not about migration, settling the illegal migration issue that was meant to be settled a long time back, or about cultural issues that have little day to day impact on our lives which are about groceries, childcare, housing that are non ideological. Making the political dimension not about remote countries that one knows little about except when it affects public safety and health as with fentanyl. Capital allocation decisions to the vital needs of America can then be free of politically induced error, so that it can be subjected to the test of how best it serves the public interest and the people of the Nation. ...

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The US needs good manufacturing jobs for the jobs and income that it brings into communities, and also because of the tax revenues from the companies making products in America that provide the basis for local governments to provide good public services in healthcare, education, and transportation. To say comparitive advantage that helped first Japanese and now Chinese manufacturers is real and how society gains is to deny some basic facts that are self evident from observation that contradict textbook ideas in economics. Comparitive Advantage is a textbook economics concept that says countries are proficient in what they make best and should specialize in that product. But it is a static concept that exists only in textbooks. If Japan in 1960, China in 1980 and India in 2000 were each presented with this idea they would have turned down the idea of making steel and remained makers of lower end products such as footwear and textiles. If Japan in 1980, China in 2000, and India in 2020 were each presented with this idea they would have turned down the idea of making semiconductors and remained makers of lower end products such as steel. A senior vice president of US Steel in the late 1960's even told this writer a graduate student at Northwestern in Chicago- as the US can make steel better than India or China let us keep making it for you. He and much of the business faculty at Northwestern also could not understand in 1970 why Airbus was being setup to compete with Boeing who by the concept of comparitive advantage should have had the whole market to itself for commercial aircraft . By this kind of thinking Airbus would not exist today because it did not have the lowest cost or the manufacturing technologies Boeing had through its vast manufacturing operation. America would be still the only one making aircraft in 2023 if textbook concepts ruled the day. By indirect methods such as hidden preferential arrangements, provision of inputs such as land, capital and labor, tax relief, the costs can be represented in a way that shows it is cheaper to manufacture overseas. The lack of a level playing field is what president Biden is correcting by doing what first Japan, then South Korea, then China and now India are doing since the 1960's. By 1974 in four years after its founding in 1970 Airbus came up with its first model the A-300 using advanced technologies. America will regain its leadership in the cost and manufacturing of many products through Biden policy and the efforts of American companies by 2030, and do this in a transformative way that will benefit the world as a whole.  It is an enormous error to say the US does not need good manufacturing jobs, that local governments do not need the tax revenues from manufacturing plants to build services for communities where manufacturing workers live, and the US does not need the manufacturing experience curve that leads to reduced costs. It is this loss of the manufacturing experience curve that is the most vital aspect for understanding the need for the US government to compete effectively with the governments of Asian countries to keep manufacturing healthy and strong at home. Economics experts ignorant of how important this science and engineering principle is fail to grasp this. Related to this is the idea of a virtuous cycle in manufacturing- whoever braves the hard years of moving up the learning and experience curve gets rewarded because once that country has mastered that skill it gets better an better as the technology advances- making it harder and harder to prevent a new monopoly in manufacturing by the country (Japan, China or Taiwan) that had the highest costs and the least advantage ten or 20 years earlier but just persevered through it all with the government's help to gain cost competitiveness. This part does not make it into the economics textbooks which are mostly theory and much of it outdated by the time they are written. Observation is the best teacher and guide as it is in science, to guide policy and action. Obsessive attachment to theory that ignores observation becomes the enemy of progress. Comparitive advantage is one concept that needs to be retired even from the textbooks. Overseas manufacturing then is a piece of the overall picture that fits into what is good for the US. Macroeconomic principles determine microeconomic outcomes as opposed to microeconomic principles with companies out on their own being forced to compete without a level playing field, or handing out technology for special status in a recipient country as some do putting the US at a macroeconomic disadvantage. This is also healthy for the recipient country overseas, as recrimination with loss of manufacturing jobs in the US inevitably leads to the kind of recrimination that does not serve either country well as in the case of China today, and worse still can lead to conflict, even war. After the egregious situation of loss of manufacturing communities across the US leading to destabilizing the social fabric, it is hard to see such thinking prevail about the US not needing manufacturing as a vital part of its social fabric and industrial strength. China, it can be said, would have developed, and developed well over the past two decades without overconcentration of US and EU manufacturing in China. Without aggravating the problems of climate change and contamination of air, land and water, and destabilizing the social fabric in the US hurting workers and communities across the US, if macroeconomic policy was made to manage this process in the US government without it being left entirely to individual companies to decide. Instead China faces today a difficult situation through events such as destabilizing the social fabric in the US (the Trump tariffs), advanced economies in G-7 resistance to sharing of technologies, the damage to its environment from microeconomic locally determined policy at individual companies, and the global effects of climate change from climate unsustainable levels of growth since 2000.  ...

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Steps taken by Secretary of State Tillerson are drawing criticism from Senator McCain and Democrats in Congress for weakening the diplomatic efforts of the U.S. Before taking office Tillerson, who believes the State Department has a bloated staff, announced a 31% cut in its budget. A year later  the cuts are leading to the departure of many senior diplomats. Some like Mr. Miller have received only a few minutes to talk to Tillerson, six top career diplomats were fired by Tillerson. Most hiring is stopped and a $25,000 buyout is being promoted to get 2000 career diplomats to leave by October 2018. This report describes a retirement class for diplomats with 26 senior employees, including two acting secretaries of statein early 50's who would normally wait many years before retiring. The top two position ranks at State are career ambassador and career minister. This is cut from 39 to 19. Political appointees are also missing to fill positions with only 10 of 44 political positions filled. Some experts see a loss also in diversity as this happens. Differences between the Nikki Haley, who is the next senior official in America's foreign service and a potential successor to Tillerson, and Mr Tillerson are also complicating the situation at the State Department. During the Obama and Bush administrations experts cited the weak role played by the institutions such as diplomatic services in promoting America's role in the world. This was not corrected in any significant way in the last decade. The position of the diplomatic service has weakened further, along with the abandonment of America's leadership role under the presidency of Mr. Trump. It will require a future president's concerted effort to restore the diplomatic service under new leadership and with a new generation of diplomats more in tune with the multipolar world of today.   ...