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The migration of Miexcans to the US, or Keralites to the Gulf states, are other ways in which the impacts of this recession are felt across countries. This is passed on through lower remittances to the home country from its workers overseas and in the people returning to their home country unemployed. Putting aside national borders its seen in the way huge migrations of workers from rural areas moving to the coastal areas of China is being reversed as export industries on the coast are collapsing. In that case there are no remitttances but the effects are just as severe as these people are unemployed. And in parts of rural China where there is a severe drought the rural economies and the farming areas are suffering from poor agricultural production. Kerala, a coastal state in southern India, is a state heavily dependent on the Gulf economies for jobs and remittances. The Keral Manpower Exporters Association says that about 500,000 workers from Kerala will be forced to return from the Gulf in a few months. Kerala contributes about half of the 5 million Indians working in the Gulf economies. The estimated $6 billion that these workers send to Kerala ia about a fourth of the state's economy and twice its government budget. Skilled workers doing jobs as carpenters, plumbers, painters and administrative staff working in the construction boom in the Gulg especially Dubai, are likely to remain unemployed. ...

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The impact of labor laws that were once designed to offer job protection to workers are now having a pervasive and pernicious effect on Italy's economy. The world has changed too with globalization, making the inefficiencies of labor laws that freeze the labor markets- protecting existing jobs and at the same time making it difficult to create new ones, diminishing job mobility to an extreme level- lead to lack of competitiveness and economic stagnation. Most Italian businesses remain small because of the fear of hiring new employees who cannot be laidoff as in other countries. With manufacturing competitiveness growing in emerging markets, Italy is losing markets and job growth potential to places in Poland and China. Foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP is the lowest of any country in Europe except Greece, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The system also lacks fairness because it divides the labor market into three tiers. According to Italy's National Institute for Statistics, the labor force of 27 million people is divided into three groups. The first group of 15 million, of older workers, has stable jobs with generous benefits. A younger group of 8 million works in a freelance capacity with rolled over short term contracts, and few benefits. An additional 4 million work in the underground economy. Because of the way the system is structured there is considerable resistance to change, especially from the older workers who work in a stable system, even though the system offers younger workers in the second tier few opportunities. What started in 1947 with a constitution that protected the rights of labor at a time of difficult industrial relations in Europe and the U.S., with the added fear of change during today's period of economic crisis, is now holding back economic renewal in Italy....

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The Markit/HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index for China declined to 49.6 in Jan 2014 from 50.5 in Dec. 2013. A score below 50 shows contraction. China's GDP growth declined to 7.7% in the 4th quarter of 2013.

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The transforming factory landscape in China as the economy slows down and workers are harder to find.

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China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao says he supports policies supporting stimulus and growth along with prudent monetary policy and efforts to dampen real estate prices to increase affordability. Efforts to strike the right balance and keep growth of at least 7.5%.

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Schneider points out that the IMF opposed the original deal in Greece rejected by the Cyprus parliament that taxed small depositors. The IMF rejected that deal on the grounds that small depositors should be protected and this would set the wrong precedent for eurozone countries. Other reports in the WSJ show Germany chancellor Angela Merkel also opposed taxing small depositors. It could very well be that after agreeing to the Cyprus demands for reducing the losses for larger depositors- including large deposits of Russian investors using Cyprus a an offshore tax haven- by taxing small depositors at 6.875% of their accounts, the patience of the IMF, ECB, and Germany with the Cyprus government was waxing thin. In the final deal the IMF, ECB and Germany insisted that only deposits larger than 100,000 euros should take losses, and that the economy based on offshore tax haven and lax banking laws had to go.

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Lael Brainard, head of the National Economic Council, and former Vice Chair at the Federal Reserve answers questions at the Council of Foreign Relations in Dec. 2024. Points she made are- The inflation we experienced was correctly diagnosed by Powell and the Fed as caused by Supply shocks from the pandemic not 1970's style embedded expectations inflation.  The response was to free up the supply by freeing up the clogged Los Angles Ports with labour and logistics coordination, and other actions. It also included redoing the supply chains to reduce dependence on China as only supplier. The 2017 tax cuts mean revenue will be 1.5 percentage points lower than the historically 18% of the GDP. This will increase the deficit. Biden administration had kept the deficit in control and reduced it by making offsetting adjustments when investment in certain areas such as childcare was done. The childcare tax credit is important for American families. Action is needed to increase the supply of housing. These are reminders of what is needed for the new DJT administration to keep the American economy on a strong footing says Brainard.     ...

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Don't let the current holiday season retail sales fool you as they have held up reasonably well. The impact of the mortgage and housing crisis will be felt in a delayed manner. It won't be till 2008 that the impact will really be felt. And the impact is expected to be lasting and deep, could take the rest of 2008, 2009 and into 2010 for this protracted tightening of credit. About $300-400 billion contraction in credit is expected when banks tighten their credit lending because of losses they are taking in the mortgage crisis. This will happen in an environment of falling house prices and consumers will not have access to the $340 billion in cash from home and mortgage equity financing that they took out in 2006, estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Auto, retail, apparel, and luxury items would be hit the most. On the jobs side not all the jobs will be lost in the USA. The USA imports about $740 billion in consumer goods and autos each year, which is one third of consumer spending excluding food and energy. The lower consumption in auto and apparel would affect exporters in Japan and China and South Korea. But Chinese exports have reached a point that they are causing trade tensions and a call for strengthening the yuan. An increase in American exports and lower imports could help bring down America's trade deficit. This could give China an opportunity to build its domestic market and markets in Asia and Europe so that it is not so dependent on the US market. For the US where the savings rate is near zero this is an opportunity for consumers to build their savings and reduce debt. Europe and India and the Middle East are expected to continue growth and China may see slower but continued growth in 2008 and 2009. In the US industries like aircraft and infrastructure promoting companies that sell to countries like Russia, India Brazil, the Middle East, and China will continue to grow. And because rates are still low large nonfinancial companies still have access to funds for expansion and capital investment. In a global economy the US consumer may be one part of a much larger picture. ...

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China's State Internet Information Office chief Lu Wei, 54, is a Communist Party official who assumed office in 2013. He attends many of the internet conferences and gatherings in China and overseas, loudly explaining China's Communist Party line that "respect for national sovereignty" on the Internet should be adhered to. Mozur and Perlez reveal the vigorous personality of Lu Wei as he argues for this view of the Web at gatherings, in sharp contrast to the way younger generation social media users and business users see the internet. Lu Wei spent his early years as bureau chief of the state owned Xinhua News Agency in southern Guangxi Province. He was promoted to positions as secretary general and vice bureau chief at agency headquarters, and to vice mayor of Beijing in 2011, chief of the city's propaganda department. He came into prominence following an article in the Communist Party journal "Seeking Truth," after pointing out that China needed to manage the way information about the country and the Party is presented using the new information technologies. He also perceived the risks posed by distorted or incorrect information to financial markets, and economic security. This was confirmed the following year with the rapid spread of reports about a high-speed rail crash in Wenzhou, China, and in numerous other incidents following this, as social media reports that could not be confirmed spread quickly in out of control fashion. He now is the director of a new Central Internet Security and Informatization Leading Group, headed by president Xi Jinping, with the task of coming up with a policy for balancing views of openness needed for the economy with government views on internet oversight. This is not only a political matter, as Chinese officials face the challenge of how to get the public to vent views on critical matters such as public anger about pollution, food contamination, contractors and badly constructed housing in a recent earthquake, mismanagement in the railways ministry, and a whole range of issues related to economic development, health and public safety. ...

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Seib comments on the rising nationalism in Europe, with a quarter of the votes in France going to the National Front of Marie La Pen, and a large share of votes to the Independence Party in the UK. This is partly a result of the austerity policies in Europe and declining confidence in the leading parties in the UK and France. Nationalism is increasing in Russia. Parties such as Putin's party in Russia are also appealing to nationalist sentiments to reduce the pressures from urban activists and anti-corruption movements in Moscow and other cities, such as the one led by Mr Navalny. The loss of confidence in ruling governments and in political parties in the age of mobile phones and internet communication- after austerity policies in Europe, and slowing growth and corruption in Russia- is leading to a protest vote in Europe, and a effort to deflect criticism in Russia by turning to nationalist issues. Nationalist issues in Asia stem from the more assertive stance taken by China and Japan, following the election of the LDP's Abe government in Japan, with a mandate to revive the economy....

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During a public dialogue during the federal government's open day German Chancellor Scholz takes time to go over the origins of the war in Europe as he understands it. Of Russia acting "clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country," in an imperialist manner. Here is what he said- On Nato During talks before the war started in February when he met Putin in Moscow Scholz assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO "in the next 30 years." NATO was never a threat to Russia even though Putin says NATO's increasing eastward expansion was to the detriment of Russia's interests. On the origins of the war in Europe- Scholz says Putin launched the war for "completely absurd reasons." During his talks with Putin for example he says Putin told him that Belarus and Ukraine should not be independent states. "This is a war that Putin, Russia, started, clearly with the intention of conquering its neighboring country. I think that was the original goal." "Putin actually had the idea of swiping a felt-tip pen across the European landscape and then saying, 'This is mine and this is yours.' " Something Germany could not accept. Scholz condemns Putin's imperialism. He compares Russia's actions to the early days of imperialism. Scholz was reported to be reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms book Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy in Europe from 1453 to the Present, before the war started. Simms shows a Europe that fought intermittent wars for supremacy between European powers Spain, Britain, Dutch, French, Germany, Austria- Hungary, Russia, Sweden over most of the period 1450 to 1950. The last part of the period was marked from 1850 to 1900 by an openly imperialist land grab for territory in Africa and Asia between Britain, France, Japan and Germany.  The period 1950 to 2000 marked by the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union and China.    On planning for the war in advance- DW.com reports that Olaf Scholz is convinced that Putin planned this war long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. On the future of the war- Scholz says he will not end the dialogue with Putin. Scholz and Germany, Biden and the US want to show that the imperialist type of expansion into neighboring states is no longer accepted, not for Russia or China. Scholz says Russia is currently engaged in gaining territory in eastern Ukraine, but it is not certain that it will stay that way, so giving in is not a sensible strategy.  Ukraine needs the Black Sea ports and the area around Kherson on the Dnieper river to maintain its economy through exports of foodgrains. There is international consensus that these exports are essential to most of Africa and other parts of the world. The war in the remaining part of 2022 into the winter is being fought in this area. Another area of international consensus is that of the refugees mostly women and children in other parts of eastern Europe, and the displaced people within Ukraine moving from the east and south to the west. For the first time the US and Germany are providing Ukraine with the air defense systems that it needs to protect refugees, something that was missing for the many early months of the war leading to millions of refugees inside and outside Ukraine.       ...

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A Wall Street Journal poll of economists shows that China's growth is slowing to around 8%. Because the economy grew rapidly in the first half of 2010, the full year growth is expected to be 11.1%. China's central bank and the government see the slowdown as a positive indication in an effort to reduce the risks to the Chinese economy from a real estate price bubble. Rising debt of local governments after the stimulus encouraged lending by state owned banks to get projects started quickly, and led to unsustainable growth levels and real estate speculation.

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Electricity production and consumption data from the provinces has been overstated say experts making the decline in economic growth in China look less severe than it really is. Coal stockpiles at one key storage location in Qinhuangdao port reached 9.5 million tons in June, says an analyst for Wood Mackenzie, global energy consulting firm, a level not seen since the level of 9.3 million tons in November 2008 during the height of the 2008 financial crisis.

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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Doubts about a decoupling of the Asian and European economy from the US economy. Opinion that the US economy could have a stronger impact on the export driven economies of Japan S. Korea and China than is usually thought and differet view from the one given recently in the Oct-Nov. report from the IMF, the OECD forecast and other reports suggesting only a modest impact of the housing crisis in the US and the credit crunch.

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China's GDP growth accelerated slightly to 6.9 percent in the 1st quarter of 2017, after five consecutive quarters of GDP growth at 6.7-6.8%, according to government data. This reflected larger use of steel in the construction industry and more mortgages issued by the state controlled banking sector. Government officials say productivity is improving helping GDP growth, with closing of less efficient manufacturing plants. Industrial production increased 7.6% in March 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The government is trying to control higher lending and reduce the backlog of bad loans at banks. Higher growth helps to reduce the bad loans at banks from the earlier period after 2008 financial crisis, improving financial stability.

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The unemployment rate drops to 7.8% from 8.1% in September according to the Labor Dept. The decline partly comes from people taking part time jobs because they are unable to find full time work. The establishment survey shows 104,000 jobs added in the private sector in September, and revises the figures for July and August to show 86,000 additional jobs created. Of the 104,000 jobs added, jobs increased in health care and transportation. Government added 10,000 jobs. Manufacturing jobs declined by 16,000, a cause for concern. A more accurate measure of unemployment is the underutilization of labor called U-6 by experts, this includes part time workers who would prefer to work full time- this has remained at 14.7% for Sept. 2012. The overall picture is that the job market remains sluggish. Because Labor Department numbers are prone to revision this could change in coming months. The slowing economy in China with the new stimulus in China coming in at one eighth the size of the old stimulus (1 trillion yuan over 4 years compared to 4 trillion yuan over 2 years 2009-2010) because of inflation concerns and risks of aggravating a property bubble, and the declining growth in the eurozone- France with zero growth in 2013 and Germany at 0.9%, Italy and Spain declining growth- means the prospects for U.S. economic growth will be lower in 2013. U.S. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter according to the Commerce Department, and Macroeconomic Advisors predicts GDP growth of 1.5% in the third quarter in downward revisions. ...