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Confrontation between the Egyptian military and the Muslim Brotherhood after the ouster of president Morsi in July 2013.

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Higgins cites the IMF and other experts on Greece's debt being unsustainable. He includes a long discussion with Charles Dallara who negotiated in the Brady Plan restructurings for Latin American debt, and for the European banks in 2010-2012 with the EU. Dallara says the issue has become politicized with national parliaments involved making it difficult to tackle the issue of debt reduction. Dallara points out that the Brady plan restructurings were possible because national parliaments were not involved.

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The October 2012 meeting of EU leaders ends with agreement for setting up the EU banking supervisor in the course of 2013. German chancellor Merkel turned down Spain's push for direct aid to its troubled banks and not aid from the ESM bailout fund to Spain which would increase Spain's sovereign debt. The Spanish government has indicated that it might take 40 billion euros out of the 100 billion euros approved by the EU for Spain. Merkel's view is that any direct aid will only go for future recapitalization not to clean up the mess at Bankia and other banks that stems from the failure of Spain's banking regulators and the housing bubble. Merkel said at a news conference: "If recapitalization is possible, it will only be possible for the future." Merkel also said preparations to set up the single banking supervisor would probably go into 2014, and by then "we won't have any more problems with the Spanish banks- at least, I hope not." Germany sees the need to have a carefully developed banking supervision system setup rather than a hurried approach. Merkel is aware that this might be seen as action taken to avoid committing German taxpayer money before elections for chancellor in Sept 2013- "No matter what I'm going to say, it will probably not be the right answer by your standards." ...

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A major change is taking place. Automakers around the world are shifting to smaller engines. Hyundai's Sonata for 2011 and the Tucson crossover for 2010 are going to have only 4 cylinder engines. Many V-6's offered by Detroit carmakers are being replaced with 4 cylinder engines and V-8 with V-6 engines. Ford is using the EcoBoost a turbocharged V-6 to offer new options for its Taurus, Lincoln MKT and other cars.

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Anger in Greece at the austerity measures was evident in the results of the April 2012 elections. The two major parties polled even less than the low poll numbers that they expected. The Socialist Pasok party of former premier Papandreou received only 13% of the vote and not the 15-18% expected, the New Democracy party of Antonio Samaras received only 18.8% and not the 25% expected. As a result the two main parties that have ruled Greece received less than one third of the vote combined. The second largest party after New Democracy is now the Coalition of the Radical Left or Syriza, which received 16.78% of the vote. It is led by young Alexis Tsipras, 38, who has said the bailout treaties witht the EU and the IMF were "not salvation, but a tragedy." Syriza opposes the austerity measures and prefers to exit the eurozone. A extremist far right anti-immigrant party New Dawn received 7% of the vote showing the desperate situation. New Democracy's Samaras tried hard but failed to form a government, and under the Greek constitution each party gets a few days to form a government. The outcome is likely to be new elections in June 2012 and a caretaker government appointed by the president....

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German banks have the largest exposure in Europe to Spain- $139.9 billion in 2012. Of this $45.9 billion is exposure to Spanish banks, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The Landesbanks in Germany have a large exposure in covered bonds to Spain, which are covered by collateral in the form of residential mortgages that have lost value and could lead to losses. At the same time they are not likely to default says Leef Dierks of Morgan Stanley, because they are used as collateral to borrow from the ECB. Some of these cedulas or jumbo covered bonds are trading at 52 cents on the dollar, according to Mr. Dierks. Geman banks have limited loss absorption capacity says Moody's. Moody's has reduced Germany's outlook to "negative" from "stable" for this reason, and warned Germany could lose its triple A credit rating.

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Greece is estimated to lose $30 billion in uncollected taxes each year. In an effort to make the wealthy pay their fair share in deficit reduction and austerity measures the Greek government is going after tax havens in London of Greeks shifting money abroad. This includes important members of parliament including the president of the Greek parliament.

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The iphone 16e 2025 for $599 more battery, more camera and larger screen offers more features at the lower end of the price range. One can see this as a phone that helps tackle the cost of living crisis that could hurt Apple sales from buyers with moderate incomes who are cutting back. It could also target a growing middle class buyer segment in India. The e in 16e could stand for economy buyers who want basics in the Apple and could attract upper income buyers of Xiaomi , Huawei and Samsung. Apple iphones have strengths in: seamless ecosytem navigation interface reliable and secure ios software higher resale value Apple discontinues support for older iphones after about 7 years. iPhone 13's can still be used in 2025 4 years old, a good time to change would be by 2026. iPhone 15 was introduced in 2023 which means a good time for changing it is 2028 using a 5 year change which balances the need to update and  update to have access to newer iphones. ...

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Raphael Minder points out one episode in the life of Emilio Botin that shows how intertwined Spain and Santander had become. During the period when Spain took EU help after the collapse of Bankia bank in 2012 there was pressure on Spain to take a full government bailout. Finance minister Guindos says it was Botin who called him at that time and told him: "You know what you have to do and I will back you up." Botin's advice to the Spanish government was to resist the pressure. Botin expanded what was a family bank based in Santander in Northern Spain, through a series of successful acquisitions. He had a rare intuitive sense for timing of acquisitions, going into Brazil around the time candidate Lula of the Workers Party was elected president, with considerable uncertainty about how financial markets would respond to the election. About a quarter of the bank's profit now comes from Brazil. Besides Brazil Santander has commercial banking presence in Britain and the U.S., taking a bank that had 20 billion euros in assets in 1998 to 1.1 trillion euros by 2013, which is about the value of Spain's GDP....

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New rules for euro currency nations in Sept. 2011. The rules provide for sanctions against countries with budget deficits exceeding 3% of GDP, and national debt exceeding 60% of GDP. Countries that break the rules will be required to make a cash deposit in a non-interest bearing account for an amount that is 0.2% of GDP. If the situation continues the deposit becomes a fine. The European Commission will still require finance ministers permission to impose sanctions, but the voting system makes this harder to block. The European Parliament will consider 6 pieces of legislation to make these changes.

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In Spain it is not the big banks like Banco Santander or BBVA that funneled a lot of the mortgage lending. Its the Cajas or non profit lending instituions that do more than half of all the loans. The Cajas had $330 billion in loans to developers in Sept. 2009, up from $50 billion in 2000. As home prices plunge the 45 Cajas are suffering losses, amounting to estimated $3.4 billion in 2010.

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Public sector layoffs in Spain in 2012-2013 under the governments deficit reduction plan- as mandated under fiscal compact rules agreed to in the December 2012 eurozone meetings- will worsen Spain's severe unemployment rate of 25%. These public sector layoffs are only now taking place. Upto now local governments had helped offset rising layoffs in the private sector by preserving employment. The result will be a further increase in unemployment in Spain, creating a crisis of large proportions.

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Greece's economy is expected to shrink by 6% in 2012 by many private sector economists in Greece. This means Greece will have a deficit closer to 10% of GDP. Antonio Samaras, leader of the New Democracy Party, is expected to win the elections in Greece to be held by spring 2012. Opinion polls show his party getting 24% of the vote, and Papandreou's Socialists getting 15%, showing how little support any party can gather in Greece. Samaras told the Journal in an interview- the contagion is spreading rapidly, and what he fears is political and social contagion from high unemployment and austerity measures. Samaras says his government would continue with the spending cuts, but also reduce the tax burden on Greek households and businesses, which he views as having worsened the recession in Greece.

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The facts that guide one's understanding of what is happening in Greece relate to the size of the public sector for a small country like Greece, and the failure of people from all classes of society from cab drivers and civil servants to small business and the shipping industry, to pay taxes. These two twin facts and a splurge of spending during and after the 2004 Olympics without proper and correct account keeping, has brought Greece to its present situation. One estimate is that every Greek person would owe 27,000 dollars, that is how much the national debt has swollen to- a massive 300 billion euros debt for a small country. This is 115% of its GDP. And the public sector spending simply went unchecked by different governments trying to win votes. Estimates are that the public sector makes up 40% of Greece's GDP, and government workers are 15% of the active workforce. Not paying taxes has become a societal trait in Greece, as a result the government does not collect an estimated 25 billion euros a year in taxes each year. And this does not include the taxes that would be paid if owners in the Greek shipping industry were to not take advantage of an exemption from paying taxes granted by the government. The result- Greece's socialist government of Prime Minister Papandreou has accepted a $110 billion euro bailout from the European Union and the IMF which comes with cuts in public spending and austerity measures designed to reduce the deficit form 13.6% of GDP to 3% in 3 years. Its important to understand what is happening in Greece, because from Prime Minister Cameron in Britain (with his cuts in government department spending of 25% over 5 years), to Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan (with a planned doubling of the sales tax), the mood in Europe and Japan is shifting to austerity measures that would correct excessive government spending. In Greece Papandreou and his ministers are making serious efforts to change a culture of not paying taxes. See the groups and links for Papandreou and Greece....