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NYT editorial says Bush Administration thinks it has time on its side in the housing foreclosure crisis but they are wrong. The White House has not come up with a clear strategy or what needs to be done as the way forward from here. And this it says wil prove costly. Because there is no clear direction coming out of the White House the Congress also has not been able to articulate a clear strategy with near unanimous support. Alt-A loans called Alt A for alternative to grade A prime loans are scheduled to reset to higher payments starting 2009 with losses mounting in 2010 and 2011. Alt A losses are projected to reach $150 billion but his is based on price declines following a stable pattern, but if housing prices take a steep decline then losses could go much higher causing a great deal of instability to the financial system, which will be harder to fix at that time. NYT is urging the Bush administration to wake up to the impending crisis.

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The plan to prevent foreclosures in Minnesota is supported by the state's Democrat- Farmer-Labor party which has a majority in the legislatre. The Republican Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty is mentioned as running mate to McCain and he will be criticized in the election if he vetoes the bill. A 39% increase in foreclosures is expected for 2008 by Housing Link, a Minnesota nonprofit research group. with about 28,000 households affected. CEO of Toll Brothers, a luxury builder rates Minnesota a F- in assessment of regional housing markets. So what will this bill do? Under the foreclosure deferment plan loans closed from January 1, 2001 through August 1, 2007, when antipredatory lending law took effect would be eligible. Borrowers must be legal U.S. residents and have adjusted household gross incomes of less than $250,000. Second home are not covered. During the deferment period borrowers keep paying a portion of their mortgages. This is set at either the monthly payment of principal and interest when the loan was originated, or 65% of the monthly payment at the time of default, whichever is less. Rep Matsui of California introduced a similar bill in the House of Representatives May 13, 2008. Because the bill limits the benefit to those who are needy and worst affected it would appear to be a sensible approach. At this time there are so many proposals but with little Republican support and a public opinion that sees this as moral hazard or rewarding people for their mistakes with public money, there is little to help the most needy and deserving borrowers for whom a good case can be made for help on a bipartisan basis and with support of the public....

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Lawmakers in Congress finally get overwhelming bipartisan support behind a plan to help homeowners facing foreclosure. The rate of homeowners going into foreclosure is 8000 a day or 2,920,000 between now and the same time next year, with the burden falling more heavily in some regions or states like Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida, and in states where the economy is weak as in the auto industry states of Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. This took some time apparently as there was some hope a couple of months before that the economy would recover and taxpayer money need not be spent to rescue homeowners and lenders from their folly. Now the economy looks sure to go into a serious downturn and homeowner prices measured by the Case-Shiller index show a 16.5% drop in prices from this time last year. Lenders earlier had balked from reducing the size of the loans and balance owed by lenders as part of their contribution. Now with losses of 40-60% in foreclosure the new federally guaranteed mortgages which require reducing the loan money owed to 85% of current value are looking attractive. The new mortgages are 30 year fixed loans with a federal guarantee. Only borrowers wanting to stay in their primary home are eligible. Borrowers also have to pay hefty fees to save taxpayer money. Buyers who purchase unoccupied properties will get a $8000 refund tax credit. There is some concern that because the bill is fairly complicated homeowners and lenders would not make larger use of it....

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McCain's Plan announced in the debate with Obama moderated by Tom Brokaw was clarified further and looks more like the plan proposed by Hubbard in the WSJ. The government would step in and clear up the old mortgages and issue new 30 year mortgages at 5%. Taxpayer money would be involved, about $300 billion but the effect would be immediate relief to all homeowners, and the opportunity to stabilize home prices before a recession makes the situation worse with higher unemployment, more foreclosures. As much as 40% of all mortgages acccording to Deutsche Bank expected to go under water with home values dropping below the outstanding mortgages, and encouraging default in that situation. Lenders who made mistakes would get off without punitive price but even in the purchase of toxic assets by the government there is no certainty that private equity and other buyers of the assets from the government would not benefit. And the banks themselves could unload these assets at below their value to the Treasury because of asymmetric information, the lenders having a better idea than Treasury what these assets are really worth. And bad lending practices especially abusive ones can be prosecuted through investigation, the courts, and tough negotiations by the states and the government just as Jerry Brown obtained a settlement against Countrywide/Bank of America for $8 billion. And some of the people involved in the abusive practices and who benefited from them could have charges filed against them and end up serving time. The advantage of such a plan is that it would be decisive action and comprehensive action to see immediate effects of preventing whole neighborhoods being blighted across the nation, as most people underestimate the speed of this downturn from 6% to 16% home foreclosures from 2007 to 2008 and expected to hit as much as 40% of all mortgages in 2009 or 2010 absent any such action. Making what seems sensible letting lenders take the pain for their mistakes could then end up causing systemwide pain. When other ways of punitive action or shared pain or burden could be found especially prosecuting such behaviour and getting settlements through investigations and tough negotiations with the offending lenders. ...

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The WSJ editorializes on McCain's plan to take over American mortgages and issue new ones at 5% and 30 year term to help stem foreclosures and stabilize home prices. WSJ editorial points to taxpayers having to shoulder all the costs under this plan and lenders and those who made bad decisions among homeowners not having to pay a price for their decisions.

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Warnings by state and city officials that were ignored by federal agencies and their officials. Efforts to protect homeowners from oppressive lending were thwarted by federal officials when state attorney generals took up the issue in Washington DC. Not a pretty picture and says a lot about what went on in that period when federal officials were too close to lenders way of seeing things or ideologically blind because lenders played the deregulation music to perfection.

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JP Morgan Chase will modify the terms of $70 billion in mortgages for borrowers who are behind in their payments or expected to be. This covers 400,000 borrowers. The focus is especially on a type of loan structured so that the monthly payment increases, and Chase inherited $54 billion of such loans with the takeover of Washington Mutual in September 2008. Some of these loans are called options adjustable rate mortgages where borrowers can make payments that don't even cover the interest costs, resulting in increasing the loan balance. Chase will replace the options ARM's with fixed rate loans.In taking over WaMU, Chase had a large exposure to the California housing market. WIth WaMu CHase ended up with $16 billion of subprime mortgages. The mortgages that Chase will modify for this plan with affordable payments make up 4.7% of the home loans it owns or are serviced by Chase's EMC Mortgage Corporation. So this is a good start but a lot remains to be done. Chase's Scharf who heads the retail division said that Chase had heard loud and clear what the thought leaders in the country are saying, and wanted to provide leadership on this issue to the whole industry as it does'nt make sense to wait. About 7.3 million American homeowners are expected to default on their mortgages from 2008 to 2010, and about 4.3 million homeowners lose their homes, according to Moody's Economy.com. While opinion leaders like FDIC's Sheila Bair and Reagan adviser Martin Feldstein have called for government help to prevent foreclosures from the early months of 2008,and FDIC has considered about 40% of current monthly payments the affordable amount for loan modification in IndyMac FDIC modifications, neither the Bush administration, banks or companies in the mortgage industry have taken any leadership on this issue. And now Scharf says it makes no sense to wait, in effect a signal to other banks to do the same. Scharf also said the stronger you are the more easier it makes to take these decisions suggesting that the $25 billion in government funds it received helped it reach this decision on this plan, which makes a lot of sense for the banks because foreclosures are the worst way to recover money with bad consequences for all parties and disastrous for the US and global economy....

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FDIC program for loan modification at IndyMac Bank. About 3500 loans were modified, and 15,000 borrowers contacted in recent weeks with offers for lower affordable monthly payments. FDIC's innovation is to create a comprehensive program with clear guidelines so that a lot of loans can be modified without doing it on a case by case basis which would take too long. Loans are modified by reducing interest rates and the principal amount so that the payments are affordable each month, and the FDIC has come up with 38 to 40% of the previous monthly payment as about the right amount. It also looks at tax information to verify earnings. There have been complaints about the responsiveness of FDIC Indymac call centers which may have inadvertently turned down some homeowners looking for help. A big problem is that the FDIC can do little for loans sold to other investors so that out of 653,000 loans serviced by Indymac Bank only about 47,000 are eligible for FDIC modification program. ...

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Sheila Bair tops the list of women in prominent positions who have exercized good judgement and vision in their positions.

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Why the loan modification programs get media attention but are not going to stem the rising tide of foreclosures. Even with all the programs announced by the banks it would affect only 2 million of the 8 million homeowners facing foreclosure. As the loan modifications are working with reducing payments to 40% of the prior monthly payment,this may not be enough as 28% is a better figure for homeowners struggling to makepayments. As a result homeowners with loan modifications may still end up in foreclosure as unemployment rises to 8% in 2009 and 2010.

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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India in 2022 and looking at 2030 has great potential in the world. India's interests as a democracy are clearly aligned with the US and Europe. In the past when India was small in economic terms after emerging from the British Empire as an independent nation and out of the fire of the partition and wars in South Asia in 1962, 1965, 1971 policies of ambivalence in foreign affairs took place. At that time says Manmohan Singh, a former prime minister who negotiated for rouble -Indian rupee agreement in the 1970's and 1980's India was finding its way for its small but growing economy. This was in the context of the Nehru-Indira Gandhi policy of non-alignment of the early years after independence when India was never presented with an opportunity to make a difference in the world and was only a small part of the world economy. Today's situation is different. The US and European Union now see the need for a principle based economic order and while one may quibble about the small details, in the larger sense, history has intended for us, the US, the European Union, UK,  British Commonwealth of which we are a part, to stand together economically and politically with our shared parliamentary systems based on western- British and American- democracy and values.  Never has history presented such a huge opportunity for billions of people- to meet the aspirations across continents from North and South America, European Union, to Africa, Asia south and south east and Japan. All countries that aspire to the free societies that have evolved over hundreds of years. It is also the spirit in which Hind Swaraj was written in 1910 by Mohandas Gandhi and which was turned into reality only 37 years later under his leadership and vision for India. The non-alignment period of 2 decades was more of a intervening chapter that resulted from a sense of grievance rather than in the spirit of courage and spirited effort that Mohandas Gandhi embodied and led India with. In Manmohan Singh's direct unmistakable terms and from the vast experience he brings as a respected Indian civil servant- "India as the largest peace loving democracy stands to gain enormously from this principled trade aspiration of the western block of nations of the US and European Union. It presents a tremendous opportunity for India to become a large producing nation for the world and a global economic powerhouse. However, to capitalize on these opportunities India needs free access to these markets, an accepted and global currency to trade in and seamless trade settlements." Manmohan Singh sees millions of factories manned by hundreds of millions of people of all castes, creeds and religions of India. This is a pivotal moment of change for India and India must grasp it firmly. It is also the Mohandas Gandhi of Hind Swaraj taken to a new level from 1910 to 2050, and today's young people's aspiration for India.  ...

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Boeing's 787 Dreamliner program has gathered 710 airplane orders estimated at $100 billion. Boeing's backlog or airplane orders is at $224 billion. Boeing's errors in executing the program including poor management of suppliers. Hundreds of experts have been sent to suppliers to get the program back on track. See problems that Airbus had with the huge jet Airbus was building.

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Talk about Hoover by the WSJ for his signing of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930 that set off a wave of protectionism and by Democrats criticizing the Bush administration's lack of vigorous response to the housing and credit crisis as smacking of Hooverism are signs of changing perceptions of the economic situation after the Bear Stearns collapse and the contracting economy.

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Sperling shows how Biden's economic plan rescued America and set the stage for America becoming the leader in the G7 economies. Gene Sperling is adviser to president Biden, coordinator of the America Rescue Plan, and had 8 years as adviser in 2000 and 2011 after the financial crisis to previous presidents. Here he says the arguments made that the trillion dollars investment spending Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have supported with legislation in Congress were causing inflation have proved not to be true. Inflation caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pandemic shifts, and the Ukraine war, has come down to 3.4% in Dec 2023. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. The new policy after 2020 resulted in the fastest drop in longterm unemployment ever with black and hispanic unemployment reaching record lows by 2023. A first ever national eviction prevention policy led to 20% less evictions than prepandemic. Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made. Lastly one needed to anticipate something unexpected to happen that flattened projections of recovery. In 2011 3.7% growth projected was flattened when Sperling was senior adviser, and this was flattened by Fukushima nuclear disaster, Arab Spring spike in oil prices, and debt default negotiations. This time there was cushion in the plan so that when covid variants and unexpected Ukraine war happened the rescue could withstand and deliver with resilience. Growth was 3.4% average for the first 3 years of Biden's term and unemployment went down from 8% to 4% for 24 months. Coming from someone who had seen mistakes happen and corrected them, who had served three presidents and the last Biden ,this is a story of how Sperling, Yellen, with the help of Powell at the Federal Reserve, and the bipartisan support put together by a US president in Congress , one who has served the country in the Senate more than any other recent Senator and led the nation with courage, patience and determination. ...

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This NYT report on Mohamed Bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, who comes from Abu Dhabi one of the 7 emirates in the Gulf Coastal region, is rare and unusual. It provides stories the prince loves to tell that make a point about how he sees the world. Here he tells them to Robert F. Worth, in the only interview Mohamed bin Zayad has ever given to a journalist from US or Europe. It took a year just to get the interview. The title about a Dark Vision is inappropriate as Mohamed Zayad simply reflects what is a British way of looking at things- valuing the Constitution, keeping religion private even its deeply held beliefs and cultural traditions such as Bedouin's practice, and a general tolerance that characterizes British society and similar societies throughout the history of Europe and Asia that were sitting on shipping lanes and practiced trade for a livelihood. It is also important because the other Mohamed, Mohamed Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia is seen as someone influenced by the ideas of Mohamed Bin Zayad of Abu Dhabi. President Biden plans a trip to the region in coming months to continue on building a narrative of development for the region. This provide an insight into the coastal regions that include Gujarat across the Gulf in India, that for centuries traded with the Gulf kingdoms. They have a trading mentality and with it comes a tolerance that is also seen in trading nations such as England. This is what brought Britain to India (and China) says Mohandas Gandhi. Gandhi went so far as to say that if there was trade on the moon you would find a British shopkeeper was first to setup shop there. Zayed has as a minister in his cabinet, a woman who is minister of Tolerance, Sheikha Lubna al Quasimi.  Zayed is unique for three reasons. He has embedded in his views the spirit of tolerance. As Worth puts it in NYT, Zayed has grasped what is true to the spirit of the Gulf region. The country's location on an ancient shipping lane has bred a type of Islam in the Gulf region, that is open to the world and tolerant.  His father Zayed Nahyan's  tendencies to openness and frank demeanor combine with this tolerance to provide a different kind of leadership. His father had the pluralist instincts that combined traditional Bedouin attitudes with a rare liberal mindedness. He died at age 86 in 2004. Zayed bin Nahyan MBZ's father was selected for these very reasons by the British in 1966 to rule the small Gulf kingdom of Abu Dhabi. In 1966, says this NYT report, the country was mostly illiterate, half of all children died during childbirth and one third of the women during childbirth, there was a complete lack of western medicine. Zayed Nahyan's brother was averse to development making the British select Zayed Nahyan at the request of Abu Dhabhi families. These early years shaped Mohamed Bin Zayed's views of how to see the world. Zayed the son loves to tell stories, and this one in the NYT shows how Mohamed bin Zayed the son and Mohamed bin Nahyan the father share a sense of what it means to be human and support all people's aspirations for a better life. This is the narrative in India and the region of 1.8 billion people that extends from India to Indonesia and Vietnam. This was seen at the G7 when leaders of India and Indonesia were invited to meet with the G7 in Munich, Germany and taken as utterly serious participants in the discussions to shape the Free World. To see the difference- UAE has signed agreements to increase trade with India to $100 billion over 5 years and was thanked by prime minister Modi for treatment of 8 million Indian workers in the Gulf region during the pandemic. Saudis are now stabilizing the Turkish and Egyptian economies with aid and providing some of the funding assistance for Siemens to modernize the entire Egyptian rail system with the latest technology over the next 5 years. Projects of this size that have never been undertaken since 1945. Sometime in the 1980's when Zayed was a young military officer having completed training at the Royal British Military Academy at Sandhurst, England, and educated in Scotland, he went to the grasslands of Tanzania. During his visit to Tanzania he went to several villages to see the Masai tribes. When he returned he sat with his father crosslegged on the floor in traditional Bedouin and Asian style and told him about his travels. His father asked Zayed about all the details- the wildlife, the Masai people and their customs, the extent of poverty in the country. After hearing it all his father asked Zayed what he had done for the people he had encountered. In response Zayed shrugged and answered, the people he met were not Muslims. Zayed still recalls his father's reaction, sudden, forceful and indelible from memory. Zayad says his father took a sudden hold of his arm and spoke to him in a harsh tone and stern demeanor- " We are all God's children."     ...

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Airbus and Boeing are expected to announce a net increase in orders of 50% in 2010, net of cancellations. Higher airline traffic is one reason, the other reason is that airline leasing companies are coming back in a big way. Lessors account for more than 35% of all orders at Airbus this year, up from 5% last year. At Boeing lessors have placed 21% of the orders, up from 12%. For Airbus and Boeing combined, the 27% of all orders placed by lessors is the highest proportion since 2000, according to Ascend Worldwide. Airbus and Boeing see lessors as more reliable buyers than airlines which are locked into their routes. Leasing companies are benefitting from funding by private equity, investment funds and commercial banks, which have taken up more than $18 billion in equity and debt issued by airplane lessors, according to Gary Liebowitz, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. Many lessors are yielding 10%, far above what can be gained in other sectors. Banks are skittish about lending to airlines, but see lessors as less risky. Airlines need planes, but banks have restricted lending to airlines. Stricter financial regulations and higher borrowing costs for banks have reduced lending to all but the strongest airlines, says Kostya Zolotusky, managing director of capital markets development for Boeing's finance division. Investors like lessors because they can move planes to where they are needed worldwide, which is what happened after the financial crisis of 2008. Lessors make money by getting discounts on large orders of planes and then renting them out at higher rates to airlines. Airlines lease the planes for a few months to a number of years, when they can't afford to buy planes or need flexibility. The shift is significant, as Boeing expects one in two planes to be owned by lessors, compared to one in three today. AIG's unit, the International Lease Finance Corporation, faced problems during the crisis. ILFC has raised $9.4 billion in new debt issues in 2010 that allowed it to refinance existing debt and repay loans to the US government. There are risks, say some executives, if speculative orders and competition among lessors get Airbus and Boeing to make too many planes. ...

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This article in Zeit Online tries to provide the facts behind Merkel's decision made in a period of 24-48 hours to let refugees marching towards Austria from Keleti station in Budapest, Hungary, September 5, 2015, to enter Germany. Other reports pointed out that too little time was given to make the decision and that it was purely done on humanitarian terms. And made during that short window of time, in which a decision had to be made to turn away the refugees going on foot for hundreds of miles or to turn them away. Given Germany's earlier history the choice was a difficult one but erred on the side of being humanitarian. Though Merkel's selfie with a refugee at a hostel on Sept 10, would seem to suggest otherwise, Merkel has said her decision was made with so little time and little opportunity to understand all the ramifications of this. It was not an open invitation to refugees to come to Germany. 

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As stimulus money reaches factories making products like hybrid buses, another trend is working to undo the positive effects. States are cutting back on their orders as they face budget shortfalls. See link to states budget shortfalls. The New Flyer hybrid bus fatory in St Cloud, Minnesota, is one such factory. The Chicago Transit Authority used some of the stimulus money to buy 58 hybrid electric buses. At the same time Chicago had to put aside plans to order 140 more buses using state money which now has disappeared. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities these effects of undoing, with one hand giving and another taking away are acting out across the economy. While the stiluus law cut federal taxes to put more money into the economy, about 30 states have raised taxes according to the Center. The Stimulus provides $27.5 billion in federal money on highway projects, but according to the American Road and Transport Builders Association, 19 states are planning to cut their highway spending in 2009. Even as the Stimulus provides $8.4 billion for mass tranisit, tranist systems are facing cutbacks in service and capital spending. Says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and author of a paper called "The State and Local Drag on the Stimulus," these cutbacks and the tax increases at the state and local levels are heading in the direction of offsetting much of the Stimulus impact....

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Volcker says that even with all the fuss about the length of the Volcker Rule, its important to remember that the regulation itself is only 35 pages. And he says that lawyers for the banks are not honest when it comes to this, because they spent a lot of time finding holes in the rule and were working to add complications to it, and now they are turning around and saying that the Volcker Rule is too complicated. Asked about Dodd-Frank, Volcker says that it does make the U.S safer in a financial crisis because of the crisis resolution process set up under Dodd-Frank legislation. A bank fails and the resolution is clearly laid out- the government takes over and liquidates it, or merges it or sells it. Stockholders don't get a bail out, management is fired, and creditors have to take losses. A lot still depends on having vigorous and alert regulators. He sees two large problems, the Euro crisis and the U.S. deficit, which need strong action. Volcker remains perplexed by why the situation of huge disparities in income growth has not been expressed to a greater extent- on one side the lack of growth in income for the average family in 10-15 years and the other side having the huge increase in incomes at the top end. He does not know of any years when this was as big as it is now- except 1928, 1929....

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Rolf Wetzer, a German metal working factory manager reflects feelings widespread in Germany. He says, we work hard and save our money, and he can't see why Germans have to throw money at countries that cannot do the same. There is considerable negative feeling about the bailout of Greece, because it is seen as brought about by the excessive spending, public corruption, and irresponsible accounting that went on in Greece. There is less negative feeling about the bailout of Ireland, as the Irish are seen as an industrious people, and the crisis was brought upon Ireland by Irish banks. Because of the negative feeling it will be much harder for Angela Merkel to go back to the German parliament for more funds, especially as her popularity has suffered. The existing fund will be stretched by the possible bailout of Portugal and Spain. Germany remains committed to the euro, but there is considerable anger about the bailouts. Germany has benefitted from the euro-zone through its exports, which jumped 31% in the last decade. Germany has a $105 billion trade surplus with the rest of Europe. At the same time there is fear that public opinion may turn against the euro. Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, says you can already feel it. Frank Schaeffer, a legislator for the Free Democrats, says that whether Germany needs the same currency as its neighbors is something he has doubts about....

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Peter Schiff says home prices are still too high. They would have to decline another 20% just to fit the long term trend line indicated by the Case -Shiller index of an average 3.35% increase each year, based on long term historical data. He says economists underestimate how distorted the housing market has become, and how little it has normalized since 2008. This is based on average increase in home prices of 3.35% per year for the 100 years between 1900 and 2000, as determined by Yale economist Robert Shiller, which is just a bit above the average rate of inflation. Taking the January 1998 10 city index of 82.7 and following the 3.35% annual trend line, he says the index would be at 126.7 in October 2010. Case-Shiller showed that it was 159.0 for October 2010. Schiff uses this to show that the market needs to drop by 20.3% from the current level to get back to the trend line. He says that the home buyers tax credit, record low interest rates, and the increased presence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing administration have for now put a floor on housing prices. Conditions in the US housing market with high inventories, the high unemployment, savings depletion and debt, point to this overshooting by 5-10% on the downside. See Roubini, who points to housing losses in 2011....