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Navdeep Puri, India's former ambassador to Egypt, discusses the importance of India's relationship with the United Arab Emirates and particularly its relationship with the leaders of Abu Dhabi. Indian prime minister Modi has visited UAE 3 times and has built a close relationship with Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ). Interviews with MBZ in the NYT and indepth articles show that MBZ is a different leader in this part of the Arab world who has inbuilt in his nature both old Arab values and tradition that he respects with the modern world that he saw in Britain, and is simply striking out for a different path that sees modernity in the British way as a way forward for the entire region. MBZ is also seen as a mentor for Mohamad bin Salman of the Saudi country. MBS is also striking out  for a different path for the region. Saudis are financing development agenda for Egypt by helping rescue the Egyptian economy with investment and assistance at a critical time of the pandemic. This also extends to aid and assistance to Turkey. For MBZ and MBS the British approach to modernity and the American approach to modernity, with science, technology and both respecting and modernizing traditional ways, offer a way forward for the entire Gulf region. When these countries look around them they see India as also striking out in the same or similar direction. Both Arab and Indian traditions are being seen in a respectful way, without ever losing sight of the development goals and fully accepting the modernity that Britain has brought not just to Asia but long before that to Europe and the US. This may be the true foundation of the new relationship of the Gulf region with India - seeking a common path to modernity and development for all the people of their countries after the failures of the last 75 years. ...

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The low number of confirmed cases and small number of deaths in India and Pakistan is being analyzed for what to expect in the coming months from June to August. Some experts see this as just the beginning that the peak will come later on. India has about 75,000 cases and Pakistan 35,000. Testing has lagged behind with only 1.5 tests per thousand people compared to 26 per thousand in the U.S.  one reason the confirmed case count is lower. Some confidence is being drawn from the deaths- 2415 in India and 737 in Pakistan. This is because only 2.2% of cases in India and 3.3% in Pakistan led to deaths, compared to 14.3% in UK and 5.5% in China, 6% in U.S., using John Hopkins database. One reason given is that only 6.4% of India's population and 4.3% of Pakistan's is over 65 years age. Compare mean age in Italy 46 years to 27 in India and 23 in Pakistan. And there is plenty of sunlight which appear to destroy the virus. Other factors that may influence the virus- taking of the tuberculosis vaccine and routine exposure to more pathogens in both countries. Prime minister Modi in India is taking no chances considering the size of India's population. He has put forward a $280 billion economic package and is moving in deliberate carefully prepared steps to lift lockdowns with the current phase No. 4 allowing more reopening. The shift now is to a more self reliant economy in industrial production making "local more vocal."  During the lockdown the large rail network and postal networks with their millions of employees, IT technology driven banking with Aadhar identification for direct deposit to hundreds of millions of the most needy citizens, and farmers, proved to be the most reliable and supportive. ...

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Svenja Schulze brings new hope and dynamism to Germany's Development Ministry. As head of the Development Ministry she brings international experience in fighting climate change as SPD minister in the last government heading the climate change related Environment ministry. There she launched the climate protection package measures aimed at making Germany climate neutral by 2045. She now heads a ministry with a budget of $13.5 billion (12 billion euros). She wants to cooperate better with the Global South with an effort to tackle poverty and help developing nations. After the shocks of the pandemic this is an essential and important task. Her predecessor as Development minister Heidemarie Wiezcorek-Zeul, SPD minister 1998-2009 says the ministry needs clout in decisionmaking and for this it is important that the Development ministry is separate and an independent entity not lumped in with the Foreign Office as in Britain. That would be quite disastrous she says.  Climate change issues are also seen as development issues and about poverty reduction. This is a useful point that Mr. Modi was trying to make as he addressed the COP26 Summit- that climate change has to be done in the overall context of mitigation, that climate change control is part of poverty reduction and brings in new opportunities when done this way. Examples are zero budget farming, and solar energy as low cost energy for rural areas in India. Here Schulze talks to employees at the Ministry and tell them "We must all strive to make a good life possible for everyone in the world, That may sound overly emotional, but it is our aspiration."  Martina Schaub, chairwoman for VENRO whivh represents 140 private and church development organizations in Germany sees Schulze as a sign of optimism. The need is great particularly in the weak health systems of many countries. It is a sign of hope, and of the new Germany under Schulz. ...

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Gautam Adani and the development of Mundra as port, special economic zone, and location for power plants with access to coal from Indonesia and Australia. Mundra is located on the westen coast of India, in Gujarat state.

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WSJ talk of "reverse Nixon" shift of Russia from China Feb 2025- reminscent of how China moving away from Russia in Mao's last years by 1971- with DJT overtures to Russia. This report does not say that Lt. Keith Kellogg has said clearly and many times the main reason- it is a senseless war that is costing an entire generation of young men from Russia and Ukraine with loss of about 1 million young people in war zones including civilians. All coming after a pandemic has taken away millions of people of an older generation from China, India, US and Russia. PM Modi has also described it in this way.

Europe sees this but has become so entrenched in a view that there will be a winner in this war when there are no winners. America as a beacon of hope in the world takes a position that is in the interests of India, China, EU, Russia and the US.

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A major shift in foreign investment may be taking place as the 2014 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum takes place in May 2014. Russian policy in Ukraine and tensions with the U.S. and Germany could lead to a shift in investment to other emerging market countries. China's tensions with Japan could lead to a similiar shift of Japanese foreign investment. At the same time India has elected a new government with an absolute majority and an overwhelming mandate from young people to accelerate development. The new government under the BJP party's Modi has a decade of experience attracting foreign investment in western India. Indonesia, Vietnam, Africa and other emerging market countries, could benefit from the shift in investment. Investment could also return to the home countries with lower labor costs in Southern Europe, lower labor/energy/transport costs in North America. For Russia the debate at the St Petersburg Economic Forum was about pursuing one of three policy paths with some riskier than others, or some combination also risky and uncertain- depending on state banks and oil windfall funds, increasing ties with Asian countries, continuing on the current path with lower foreign investment and continued capital outflows. The failure to use the time wisely to diversify the oil based economy which could have been better accomplished in an economy not overly dependent on crony capitalism and centralized economy, both current characteristics, will affect future progress. A key weakness for Russia compared to China is the centralization under one person Putin, more so in the third term. In China the two man team Keqiang and Jinping is part of a larger team chosen by consensus and negotiation and part of a rotational scheme. It has senior leaders who initiated the changes to a market driven economy in the nineties determined to see China on track....

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Indian prime minister Modi meets president Putin in Sochi, Russia. India is seeking to maintain its ties with Russia even as Russia seeks a new relationship with Pakistan including sales of military transport. Putin and Modi support a multi-polar world order in their discussions. India has 62% of defense imports from Russia in the last 5 years, as it shifts to a relationship of jointly developing arms systems and technologies, and shifting purchases to other countries. India joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with Russian support. Russia is also active in building Indian atomic energy plants.

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Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

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The 2018 elections in the southern state of Karnataka with the software centre of Bangalore, are seen as setting the stage for the national elections in India in 2019. The ruling BJP party of prime minister Modi is making an effort to oust the opposition Congress party in that state. BJP won the state in 2008 and lost it in 2013. Modi is basing his efforts in the state on fighting corruption and building infrastructure, boosting the economy. Both sides appeal to caste based politics even as they support development efforts. 

At stake are the big leap infrastructure development, and inclusion efforts for the rural and urban poor of Mr. Modi, leader of the BJP party, if the party loses power in the 2019 elections. As a result it is mounting an effort in Karnataka that also includes caste based politics by supporting the Lingayat caste group, and raising election funds that are reported to be five times that of the Congress party in the state.

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A three judge special bench of India's Supreme Court led by chief justice Rajendra Mal Lodha, said the process of allocation of coal licenses by the coal ministry lacked accountability and openness. Lodha said: "There was no fair and transparent procedure, all resulting in unfair distribution of the national wealth. Common good and public interest have, thus, suffered heavily." A report by India's federal auditor in 2012 stated the improper allocation of 200 coal leases to private companies cost the government about $30 billion. Former prime minister Manmohan Singh of the Congresss party headed the Coal ministry for part of the period when the improper coal leases were given, leading to intense criticism from the media. This was an issue in the elections leading to the defeat of the Congress party by the BJP party led by Mr. Modi.

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India's Ministry of Finance predicts GDP growth of between 7 and 7.5% for 2018-2019, after faltering GDP growth in 2017-2018 following action on demonetization and introduction of a national Goods and Service Tax. The IMF predicts growth of 7.4% for India in 2018 compared to 6.8% in China in 2018, with growth of 7.8% predicted for India in 2019.  Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian says there are "robust and broad based signs of revival," though risks remain in rising oil prices and inflation. The level is below what it could be, yet robust considering the policy actions taken by the government for the long term such as the nationwide GST implementation, which was taken up by previous administrations of both parties in government but never implemented till 2017. In addition the government faces the tasks of recapitalization of banks, the issues of job creation as manufacturing in India in the global context is only beginning to take shape, and agrarian distress.  The new Budget takes up the issues facing rural areas of the country by compensating farmers to the extent of 150% of agricultural cost and introducing the largest health care security scheme in the world for poor families. This comes a year before new national elections. The Modi administrations's focus appears to be for taking steps that will generate growth over the long term and learning from errors, yet being bold enough to take the necessary action based on experience.   ...

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Atul Aneja looks at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments on the India- China relationship in March 2018.  The comments by Wang Yi show an extraordinary effort by the Foreign Minister to push for better relations. He raises the need for greater dialogue and "mutual trust" to improve the relations. Wang visited India in December during the period of tense relations and the post-Doklam meeting between prime minister Modi and president Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting in Xiamen. India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China in Feb. 2017. A China-India economic dialogue is planned for April, 2018, preceded by visits of Commerce Minister Zhong Shan and Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China. Compared to the comments by both sides during the Doklam crisis there appears to be a significant change in policy. Wang refers to "more far-sighted leaders" who have realized the importance of the India- China relationship as that between the two largest developing countries each with a population of 1 billion.  In the context of events in early March with pressure from the Trump administration on trade with China- calling for China to come up with plans to reduce the trade surplus in 2018- and the growing influence of Mr. Lighthizer as a trusted advisor of president Trump and exit of Gary Cohn, this could be a strategic move.   ...

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India's robust debate as a democracy is of an astonishing size and diversity of opinion. The debate did not diminish when there was one federal party in many states under Indira Gandhi (1970's). It actually increased many times during this period compared to the period under Jawaharlal Nehru (1950's) taking the example of one state Gujarat as an example of what was going on in 18 states of that time. Newspapers in Gujarati such as Jansatta, Gujarat Samachar and others carried on a vigorous debate with opposing points of view to the Indira Gandhi government at the state and federal level of the 1970's. Most people in places like New York and London fail to understand or see the local language newspapers or are totally unaware of their existence, and the debate carried on in their pages. So that they falsely assume what a small group of English language newspapers tell them about the vigor of Indian democratic debate that is truly unmatched anywhere in the world. And in terms of its 22 languages in one nation one could say in the entire history of the world. Swapan Dasgupta in the Times of India gives the staggering number of publications today in 2023- 144,520 publications reaching 386 million people every day. And 392 television news channels . All in 22 languages. To ignore the local languages as if they did not exist is to ignore India as if a billion people did not exist. Or as it is for China to say that everything written in Chinese papers and Chinese news channels did not exist. Dasgupta also points out that one should take Mr. Modi and the BJP out of this as at the national level its a 10 year old phenomenon. Look back from 2010 for the sixty years from 1950 to 2010 and India was as badly misconceived, misrepresented, and misperceived back then. India he says fell from 105th place in Freedom House rankings in 2006 to 140th place in 2013. Mr. Modi only enters the picture after that. Dasgupta points out the small sample for these ratings 150 respondents and the methodology having missed much if not everything that is needed in a robust democratic debate. There is another aspect which is present which is prominent in New York and London and Washington D.C. and that is that non-alignment is not popular.  One has to see the way Adlai Stevenson running against Eisenhower twice in the 1950's very warmly received Jawaharlal Nehru on his visit to the US and compare it with the way the US perceived India under John Foster Dulles after Dwight Eisenhower was elected in 1952 to understand this aspect of American perception. Dulles was facing the Soviet Union and the British under Churchill then Macmillan had an equal disdain for Nehru's non alignment and tilt towards the Soviet Union. These root perceptions did not change with the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, and continued into the 1970's when Nehru's daughter Indira Gandhi was prime minister and continued non alignment.  India's political alignment after the pandemic is anything but non-aligned. It thinks, acts and lives in a way that is similar to the people of the US and Europe. Not even because it chooses to but because of what it is, coming from being part of its ancient path of Vedanta and Buddhist civilization that is the core Asian experience. It also needs to bring 400 million out of poverty and build the next phase of industrialization and modernization that requires fossil fuels in large quantities at lower prices to sustain its rapid growth. Some of it comes from Russia purely as an economic decision during the pandemic. The Biden administration fully supports India in this task of rapidly growth to meet the aspirations of a mostly young population- sourcing fossil fuels from whichever source that makes sense. To become a key part of the US new supply chain that reverses the overconcentration of the supply chain in China. It can only be said then that Freedom House has the peculiar affliction left behind from the John Foster Dulles period, combined with a bit of arrogance in failing to grasp the central fact of India which is its 22 languages forging one nation- a task nowhere seen in the history of the world. ...

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The WSJ responds to president Biden ramping up renewable energy plans and linking Republicans with Senator Rick Scott's plan for sunset provisions on federal legislation every 5 years that Biden says would include Medicare and Social Security. WSJ is critical of Biden's renewable energy plans and calls for increasing production of oil and gas to meet energy shortages and price increases. It is also against a wealth tax, Biden's $2 trillion Workers and Families Plan, and Biden's plan for Medicare to negotiate drug prices. WSJ says real disposable personal income increased $4205 under the Trump presidency 2017-2020, and has since declined by $374 with high inflation depressing purchasing power. The impact of climate change requiring brave choices and strong action is missing in the Republican plan as Republicans focus on attacking Democrats controlling the presidency and Congress on the issue of inflation. The issue of remaking supply chains are on both the Republican and Democratic agendas with president Trump giving more rhetoric against China's role in dominance of supply chains and Mr. Biden taking stronger action in Theodore Roosevelt's style of carrying a big stick and quiet posture in restoring America as a manufacturing powerhouse. The impact of climate change is short term rather than long term as seen by the heat wave in South Asia today, the fires in North America and Europe. Republicans are losing sight of the importance of making the shift on renewable energy quickly with some short term pain, as they push for oil and gas solutions and a less effective program for renewable energy. Mr. Biden is taking on bigger risks in the short term in the midterms and beyond but following a sound policy of aggressively pushing renewable energy. This can also be seen in the importance renewable energy is being given even in countries with a need for coal and natural gas such as India. Modi's plans in India are to buildup renewable energy capacity with aggressive targets for 2030. ...

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Judicial interpretation of India's Constitution enables upward mobility, building the infrastructure that supports upward mobility without leakage of funds, and world social justice, says Chief Justice of India's Supreme Court D.Y. Chandrachud. He was giving the Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture in Mumbai.  Prime minister Modi could not pursue India's rapid development program to benefit all parts of society without the help of the Supreme Court in interpreting the Constitution in a way that supports India's development. "The identity of the Indian Constitution has evolved through the interaction of Indian citizens with the Constitution and has been accompanied by judicial interpretation... If you look at the Constitution, it does not favor unbounded economic liberalism. Rather, our Constitution seeks to find the right balance. When individuals can exercize their liberties and to be fairly rewarded for their efforts, then economic justice becomes one of the many inter-related dimensions of life. Ultimately, we share common faiths and destinies to the point that development of each individual fosters social justice in the entire world." "The basic structure doctrine of India's Constitution is that it guides and gives certain direction to its interpreters and implementers, when the path is convoluted. The craftsmanship of a judge lies in interpreting the text of the Constitution with the changing times while keeping its soul intact." This happened when Nani Palkhivala presented the idea before the Supreme Court in 1973 against prime minister Indira Gandhi's Emergency rule that parliament had limits to its powers when it came to amending the Constitution if by amending it the amendment would destroy the spirit of the Constitution or its basic idea. This includes freedom of expression, rule of law, separation of powers, freedoms guaranteed to all citizens. The amending power is limited and cannot be turned into an absolute power. Another way of looking at it is that parliament itself is organized by statutory authority. And it cannot destroy or dismantle the very basic features of the law (the Constitution) that created it in the first place.     ...

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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What does Business in the Republican party think of J.D. Vance?   WSJ says the book "Hillbelly Elegy" is about cultural dysfunction not globalization or economic dislocation. Vance's book is about growing up in Appalachian part of Ohio around 2000. Lyrarc Retrospect shown on this page has a Wash.Post report of Robert Kennedy's visit in 1968 to poverty stricken Appalachian rural America in eastern Kentucky.  Running through Pennsylvania and Ohio to Tennessee. Mostly rural, mountainous low income and lacking roads, highways, and lacking schools, medical clinics. JFK and LBJ as presidents in the 1960's setup the Appalachian Regional Commission to lift it out of poverty. It increased income growth modest 4% above neighboring counties. Bush and Obama wars left this region and rural regions across the US neglected till Biden pulled out of Afghanistan and made rural America a top priority with the hundreds of millions of dollars needed to invest in it. It is as tough to tackle as the poverty in a similar forested and hilly part of eastern India called Orissa and Chattisgarh, which is only now receiving the attention of prime minister Modi in his third term. WSJ says J.D. Vance called mere rhetoric as no answer to such intractable problems in his Yale days, calling mere reference to cultural issues and immigration as forms of cultural heroin that would do little to change the centuries old poverty of the region.  Of the 39 year old senator J.D. Vance migration to MAGA, WSJ says it reminds them of Obama with only 2 years experience in the Senate- Vance has only a little over a year- who with lack of experience contested for the presidency of the US only to find Republicans poking Obama for seeking the presidency with such insignificant experience. This led to one of the least effective presidencies for lack of bipartisan support similar to that of Bush, both distracted by wars neither had the wisdom to not enter in the first place or to end quickly.   ...