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Lawrence Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, writes on August 2, the day the debt ceiling deal passed the U.S. Congress. His reaction to the deal is one of relief, cynicism and economic anxiety. Relief that the deal does no immediate damage to the economy, which he says is no small achievement. This comes from not denting the U.S. safety net of Medicaid, Social Security and other social programs in the midst of high unemployment. And raising the debt ceiling through 2012 avoids a repeat of the kind of tense negotiations that took place recently. Cynicism because with the revised information from the Commerce Department of 0.4% growth in the first quarter and 1.4% growth in the second quarter of 2011, the new forecast of U.S. budget deficits would be much higher in the years further out. A mere loss of one half percentage point in the annual rate of growth could add $1 trillion dollars to the national debt in 2021. Summers points out that Congress votes annually on discretionary spending and a current Congress cannot control what a future Congress does. Caps and sequester deals can be reformulated in 2013 by a new Congress. This deal says Summers has only confirmed the lower levels of spending already negotiated for 2011 and 2012, even though the estimates show $1 trillion in deficit reduction. For the remaining $1.2 trillion in reductions to be negotiated by the "super-committee" there is no baseline for these cuts- it is not stated whether this baseline is with the Bush high income tax cuts included or excluded. His economic anxiety comes from the low rate of growth in the first half of 2011 which suggest an economy at close to a standstill. He sees a one in three chance of a U.S. recession in the absence of any efforts to spur growth. Martin Feldstein was quoted on television business channels on August 2, saying he sees a 50% chance of the economy slipping back into a recession. Steps Summers advocates are a non-extension of the Bush high-income tax cuts which would add $1 trillion to deficit reduction, some entitlement reform, extension of the payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment insurance, and infrastructure maintenance....

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This report in the Guardian says president Macron's party along with its small ally MoDem could win as many as three fourths of the 577 seats in parliament in the June 2017 election, or about 400-445 seats. The election showed a low turnout of 49%, with abstention highest among supporters of Marie Le Pen of the National Front on the extreme right and Le Melenchon on the extreme left.  A big loser is the Socialist Party which this report estimates losing about 200 seats. Les Republicains the other main party on the right is also a loser, as this report estimates it going from 199 seats to 70-130 seats. The National Front of Marie Le Pen could end up with one seat at worst or just below the threshold of 15 seats from 118 constituencies contested. This is because it faces competition from the right and the left parties for votes in every constitutency, and is kept out by the centre right and centre left coming together. Le Melenchon's France Unbowed is expected to win about 11-23 seats.  In this election young and working class voters stayed away, voters who supported the more extreme left and right wing parties. Chancellor Merkel called it "a vote for reforms." The big majority makes it possible for Macron to get laws to change the labor market to create more jobs, and to make changes to pension and unemployment benefits, so that France's economy can get moving again.  ...

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Sunderland in the northeast of England voted 69% for Leave in the Brexit referendum. It is one of the most deprived cities in the UK and after years of neglect by leaders and political elites it voted Leave to express its resentment of its treatment. Following the collapse of the shipbuilding industry the northeast of England has suffered from high unemployment with a third of the children living in poverty. Yet today there is a marked shift and cooling of the sentiment for Leave, as many of the promises made by the Leave campaign that more money would go to National Health Service, the economy would improve, and contributions to the EU would be diverted to England, appear to be broken. About $445 million was sent to the northeast of England from 2014 and helped the local economy. Benefit cuts, and austerity measures were continued by the May government in the northeast causing people to have doubts about the Brexit Leave campaign's promises. The EU's requirement that people of EU origin could work in the UK had riled residents in the northestern England deprived areas. Now a more realistic assessment of withdrawing from the EU is now taking place. About 60% of the exports of the northeast of England go to the European Union. The effect of this will be felt in this part of England and the costs of Leave are finally sinking in  for Sunderland residents. A Nissan factory in the area is a major employer and the government has stepped in to protect jobs. ...

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The southern U.S. which was early to reopen the economy after the lockdown with some states having only partial lockdowns, is emerging from the coronavirus in much better shape than the rest of the U.S. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in August, the lowest of any region. The number of people employed was only 6% lower in August than in February, when most of the U.S. went into lockdown, compared with declines of 10.6% in the Northeast, 8.2% in the West, and 7% in the Midwest. Some of this was a result of aggressive reopening in Texas and other southern states. Overall deaths in the south were 60 per 100,000 people compared to 132 in the Northeast including New York and New Jersey, Midwest at 52, and West at 40. The Northeast numbers are high because of the elderly in nursing homes hit hard in New York and New Jersey.  In the southern states by comparison the deaths came later and among young people taking risks. The virus hit the northeast early and parts of the midwest, southern states had the advantage of some of the work already being initiated in March to fight the virus nationwide. Many of these states are also Republican and residents feared the virus much less. Republican Governors followed their instincts and aggressively reopened putting the economy first. The numbers tell the story. In South Carolina 44% of Republicans say they aren't afraid of the virus outbreak in the local area, compared to just 2% of Democrats, according to Civiqs poll. Georgia and Florida have similar numbers, all with Republican Governors. One factor favoring southerners is that cities in the south are much less dense and less populated than in the North and West. Smaller cities than Los Angeles and New York. ...

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U.S. added 245,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate drops from 6.9% to 6.7% as some Americans give up looking for work. The concern now is not the rate of job creation which is healthy but the drop outs from the workforce.  Concern arises from the long drawn out effects of the 2009 financial crisis and its effects which were seen over a decade. This report in NYT says the share of prime age Americans who were employed returned to the January 2008 level in 2019. And then the pandemic hits putting everything back again. This time if the lesson is learned about the long term damage to working families it is that this be tackled as a priority for the central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, an the Treasury, and Council of Economic Advisors, under the leadership of president Biden. Fortunately both Yellen and the new proposed head of the Council are students of labor markets and have stated this is one of the lessons they have learned and will act on. As this report says the opiate crisis, the risks of addiction increased, and there were links to the long period people were without jobs. The longer a person is without a job the more likely he will become permanently unemployed. The hope now is that the vaccination effort could bring people back to work quickly as business and life resumes in 2021, with workers being hired back. The share of prime age Americans working in November is 76.5% compared to 80.5% in February, which means this has to go up by about 4 percentage points. The people who are not in the labor force today but still want a job are 2.2 million. It is this that needs to be the focus of the new administration, central bank, and Congress. ...

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The mismanagement of the economy under president Macri is leading to an economic crisis in the country. By embracing economic orthodoxy and slashing subsidies for fuel, electricity and transportation Mr. Macri who won the election 3 years ago has cause the prices of these basic goods to skyrocket. This has hurt the middle class and poor in Argentina. For most of this century Argentina has pursued populist policies, and in the last five decades periods of free market principle based economics were followed by severe crises, and subsequent restoration of populist policies to improve the economic conditions that had deteriorated.  The peso lost half of its value in 2018, leading to a IMF bailout of $57 billion. Inflation is at 50%, unemployment above 9%. To stem the fall in the peso the central bank increased interest rates to 60% stifling the economy and business. Under his predecessor Christine Kirchner the peso's value suffered and its currency reserves were low after fall in soyabean prices, yet the currency had not suffered the kind of decline that it has seen under Mr. Macri. The cutting of subsidies and the economic crisis has increased the number of poor to about a third of the population. Argentina now faces another of the repeated cycles of going from a populist Peronist administration to a free market orthodoxy supporting government, followed by an economic crisis and a shift back to Peronist populist administration policies. Part of the problem is that Argentina, and Brazil, and most of Latin America is still dependent on commodity exports, and the economy dependent on commodity prices. The manufacturing sector has not taken off as it has in Asian countries. This has led to repeated crises in times when the currency reserves declined and affected the currency, also leading to bouts of severe inflation.   ...

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Maria Bartiromo talks with President Medvedev of Russia. She asks him about the North Korean's nuclear missiles testing. Medvedev says "what has happened raises great alarm and concern." He says North Korea is close to Japan and S. Korea but is also close to Russia. He has had quite anumber of telephone talks with the Prime Minister of Japan and the President of S. Korea on this subject. He says the world needs to think about what measures can be taken to deter these programs. He is concerned about unemployment. 2.2 million are registered as unemployed but the number is much much higher. Russia he says is a hostage to the structure of the economy, and sees a danger in the overdependence on export of raw materials. He sees the crisis as an opportunity to change the "outdated and obsolete structure of Russia's economy." His idea is to use the extra revenues to support social programs and to radically change the structure of the economy.

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The pro-independence party of Catalan president Arturo Mas called an election two years ahead of schedule in an effort to increase autonomy for Catalonia in relations with the central government of Spain. He failed in negotiations to reduce the tax burden for Catalonia in relations with the federal government in Madrid. Arturo Mas's party lost seats in the regional election, ending up with 50 seats compared to the 62 seats it held previously in the 135 seat regional parliament in Barcelona. Other pro independence parties gained seats. The left leaning Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya party increased its seats from 10 to 21 seats. The Partido Popular of Spain's premier Rajoy won 19 seats, up one seat from the 18 it held earlier. There is considerable questioning inside Spain about whether this issue should be brought up at a time of 25% unemployment and negotiations with the EU for loans to restore the health of Spain's banking system.

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The record shows that like other industrial states such as Illinois, Michigan and Ohio, Massachusetts lost many manufacturing jobs during the period 2003-2007, when Romney was Governor of Massachusetts. At the end of 2002 there were 338,000 manufacturing jobs in Massachusetts, by 2007 this had declined by 12% to 298,000, according to Andrew Sum, an economist at Northeastern University. Romney cites a drop in the unemployment rate from 5.6% to 4.7%. Prof. Sum who heads the University's Centre for Labor Market Studies, says this was people left the workforce during this period in large numbers. He says only Louisiana of all U.S. states had a bigger decline in the labor force when it was hit by Hurricane Katrina. The dot com bubble burst during the period before Romney took office. Massachusetts had already lost 158,000 jobs in 2001-2002 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Romney was unable to do much to reverse the job losses that continued during his term in office.

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The lack of trust in negotiations on the terms of spending cuts between Greece and EU ministers in February 2011. In difficult exchanges between German finance minister Schauble and Greece's finance minister Venizelos, Schauble criticized the Greek government for not beginning negotiations for reduction in the minimum wage. EU ministers at a meeting with Venizelos on Feb 10, 2012, showed a distrust of Greece's figures on austerity cuts and asked for an additional $428 million in cuts to make up for the refusal of Greece to cut supplemental pensions. In Greece five ministers in the Greek cabinet resigned in protest over the conditions set by the troika of the EC, ECB and the IMF, just as unions launched a 48 hour strike in Athens. Greece is in the fifth year of a recession with unemployment at over 20%, making sharp cuts more painful. A shrinking economy makes achieving budget defict targets even more difficult and worsening the debt situation.

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Friedman suggests a 2009 book "Generation in Waiting," edited by Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef, as giving a real insight into what is happening in Egypt. It says that the great change that is occurring in Arab society is not about political Islam, but about a "generational game" in which over 100 million young Arabs are fighting stifling economic and political strucutres that have taken away their freedoms, provide the poorest education systems, the highest unemployment rates and the biggest income gaps of any society in the the world. ElBaradei tells Friedman that the Arab states of today are nothing but a collection of failed states who give nothing to humanity or science, and this because the people are not taught to think or act and are given an inferior education, in a part of the world that experienced in the past a high level of learning and made contributions in the arts, humanities and science.

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In an effort to address global uncertainty, Australia's Treasurer, Wayne Swan, presented a budget designed to move to a surplus of A$1.5 billion from a deficit of A$44.4 billion for fiscal year ending June 30, with large cuts in defense spending. Savings and cuts amount to A$33.6 billion. The trade deficit is widening, and Australia faces uncertainty about the prospects of the mining boom continuing to sustain economic growth with the slowdown in China. The budget plan is based on assumptions of 3.25% growth in the next fiscal year, unemployment at 5.5% slightly above the 5.2% today. The growth in GDP for the last quarter of the prior fiscal year slowed to 2.3%. Australia's widening trade deficit for the first quarter 2012, was A$3.2 billion. New taxes on mining profits will generate A$6.5 billion in 2 years, and taxes on carbon pollution A$7.4 billion. With elections set for 2013, the government plans to continue payments supporting low and middle income families.

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Voters overwhelmingly oppose the tax increase in 2015 taking the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The Abe government plans to postpone the tax increase and call snap elections in December 2014. Two thirds of people surveyed said they did not see why new elections are needed. For prime minister Abe this is an effort to win a vote now rather than later when the opposition is weak. In 2012 elections Abe won 295 of 480 seats in the lower house of parliament. LDP party officials say even if this dropped by 20-30 seats it would be a win for Abe reaffirming that his economic policies are taking Japan in the right direction towards growth, and extending the length of his mandate. They point to growth in tourism, and the addition of 1 million new jobs. Further action to stimulate the economy would reduce unemployment further and end Japan's deflationary tendencies.

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Italy will get 6 billion euros in savings from lower interest rate charges on its debt as a result of lower borrowing costs in capital markets. Italy's borrowing costs were at record low of 2.08% for debt issued in 2013. The new budget fails to provide relief in payroll taxes that would help reduce high youth unemployment. A payroll tax cut will increase take home pay of lower income workers by about 15 euros a month. Carlo Cottarelli, IMF expert, has the task of doing a spending review to cut 32 billion euros in public spending within 3 years. The Letta administration is looking at which tax credits to eliminate. These tax breaks range from aftershool sports programs and veterinary costs and amount to 130 billion euros a year. Automatic measures to reduce spending are part of recent Italian legislation and act to keep spending down. limits in the event the political system fails to produce agreement.

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How temp services companies such as Kelly Girl and Manpower were started in the post war period. What this means in today's economy with the increase in temp and part-time workers without worker protections and benefits. The trend to temp workers without contracts or protection is seen in Germany, Spain, Japan and other countries. Hatton cites Census Bureau statistics showing one third of adults experiencing poverty are working, one fourth of jobs in America pay less than the federal poverty line of $23,050. In the U.S., Europe and Japan it is not only the jobs that matter but the kind of jobs. Even in countries such as Germany that reduced the unemployment rate this came with a downside in the higher number of lower paying jobs. Temporary workers almost doubled in two decades in Japan to 33% of workers by 2007. Some of the difficult work after the nuclear accident in Japan was performed by temporary workers.

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GM shares dropped by 31% October 8, 2008 to a postwar low. And Jeff Schuster head of auto forecasting at JD Power says the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse. The slowdown will extend to Europe, China, india and Brazil. Previously JD Power estimated sales at 14 million for 2009 now it thinks it will be more like 13.2 million in 2009 and this may come up for revision as the economic downturn deepens with higher unemployment, loss in savings, and collapsing consumption. With access to financing drying up, and sales collapsing GM is rnning low on funds to run day to day operations and is expected to be acutely short by the end of 2009. Ford faces a similar situation. One forecast by Citigroup global markets in the link in Detroit News October 9 points to only abot $1 billion remaining by the end of 2009 and even with asset sales generating some $5 billion being thin ice for GM.

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Wagoner says GM can get 37mpg on average by 2012 for its cars in response to Congressional demand for higher fuel efficiency and energy conservation. Congress is looking for European mandated levels of 50mpg by 2015, which were initially opposed by European automakers also. It becomes the condition for loans. The awfully bad unemployment numbers for November of 533,000 layoffs led to some compromise from Speaker Pelosi, so that $15 billion could come as a bridge loan to the Detroit automakers from the $25 billion allocated for the specific purpose of fuel efficiency technologies. The only way this compromise could be reached is by a complete shift by the auto executives on the issue of fuel efficiency, which is a sore point with Congress especially the way automakers in Detroit have dragged their feet on this issue over 2 decades, contributing to the jump in oil prices in 2007 and early 2008.

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President Biden easily wins the Democratic primary in South carolina with opposing candidates not meeting the 15% threshhold in any district. President Biden told the crowd that "the days when the backbone of the Democratic party had to wait at the back of the line are over. Now you are first in the nation." That 14 million new jobs had been created. A promise made and a promise kept, he said.

"As I said 4 years ago this campaign is for every one that has been knocked down, counted out and left behind... We are leaving no one behind." Unemployment is at 3.7% and unemployment among Black Americans is the lowest in decades at 5.2%.

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Pat Schumer Democratic Senate leader takes a position to support passage of the spending bill in the US Senate proposed by Republicans, as not doing so would hurt ordinary Americans. Schumer sees this as important as a shutdown would not be good for the American economy. Other Democrats see things only from the point of partisan politics and not the interests of the Nation as a whole. It is to Pat Schumer in the US Senate that president Biden looked to for the legislation that supported rebuilding American infrastructure in the Inflation Protection Act. The same responsible attitude is taken by senior Republican senators and governors who are keen on working together on a bipartisan basis in the interests of the Nation. This was on display at the recent Governors conference when Oklahoma Governor (Republican) discussed how to address US needs in various areas with Beshear of Kentucky and Shapiro of Pennsylvania, both Democrats. The strength of the US economy with growth, lower inflation at 3% and low unemployment at 4% is a result of the farsighted thinking, and efforts to work together of senior members of the Senate from both parties, and of governors in different states. ...

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Congressional Budget Office projections show the difficult choices facing the U.S. - tackling the deficit by letting the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cuts expire will lead to low growth. The alternative is growth with much higher deficits. GDP growth would be at about 2.3% in this fiscal year if the payroll tax cut is kept till December 2012. In fiscal 2013 if a number of tax cuts are permitted to expire and across the board spending cuts take effect as scheduled GDP growth would decline to 1.1%. Taxes would increase by $465 billion in 2013 over 2012 if tax cuts expire - individuals and companies would pay $2.99 trillion in taxes in fiscal year 2013 in that scenario. Spending cuts would take effect in Jan 2013 for $1.2 trillion over 10 years. The result- " a sharp fiscal contraction" in the words of CBO director Elmendorf. Unemployment would go up to 8.9% in 2012 year end and 9.2% in 2013 yearend from 8.5% today, if no agreement is made to extend tax cuts and block spending cuts. The risk of not taking the debt reduction actions is to let the debt grow to $11 trillion over 10 years, an unsustainable path, compared to about $3.1 trillion over 10 years if tax cuts are permitted to expire and spending cuts take place. This is the tough choice facing America in 2012, and comes when Europe is facing similar tough choices....

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Dennis Berman takes a very instructive and reflective look at what happened in history, the thirties when something like what we are seeing now happened, a huge global downturn. One thing that is being repeated is the tendency to think that things will recover maybe in 2009 or 2010. But oftentimes this is not the way it turns out. President Hoover said to the American people in May 1930, " I am convinced that we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover." Hoover is now seen negatively but a visit to the museum section of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University shows that he was a geological engineer, well travelled to other countries, was President of Stanford when it was a small school, and was active in relief efforts for Russia in the years of civil war after the first world war. Was he less compassionate than FDR, was he less educated, and less aware of conditions in other countries than FDR, and less determined than FDR? Could it be that he did not realize the depth of the downturn that lay ahead and for this reason failed to take more aggressive action? WIth FDR, less well known as Berman points out, is the period of 1936 and 1937 covered in the book "The Forgotten Man", a popular history of the Depression by Amity Shlaes. The Federal Reserve used New Deal laws to tighten reserve requirements on the nation's banks. The goal was to make the banks stronger, but the unanticipated result was that the banks tightened still further. This aggravated things in the economy when it was still stuck in difficulties. The Dow Jones Average fell by more than a third between August 1937 and January 1938. Unemployment jumped. Historians call it the 'depression within the Depression. Just a year before this period, FDR predicted in 1935, "Never since my inauguration in March 1933, have I felt so unmistakably the atmosphere of recovery." Berman reminds us that the main force in the economy at this time however well intentioned is the government. And the government is at the whims of politicians, and the error proneness of human beings in positions of responsibility, with so many decisions taken on an ad hoc basis, responding to emergencies and dire situations as they arise, with not enough time for careful thought, and often with little sleep. The AIG intervention has already taken $177 billion in government money in a few months, and everything is being done on a crash basis with little preparation mostly in response to surprises popping up in financial markets. As Frank Rich points out the danger to the President's plans and vision is not from the work outlined for education, energy, health care, or Republicans, as much as it is from this uncertain element about available capital to make the wheels of the economy move again to sustain employment and incomes....

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The legacy of U.S. president George H.W. Bush is a four year presidency that benefited from the growth under president Reagan and low inflation but was cut short in a loss to Bill Clinton in 1992, Persistent budget deficits and high unemployment were seen as a result of the supply side deficits Mr. Bush supported as vice president under Reagan, but derided as "voodoo economics" as president breaking his pledge of no new taxes to cut the deficit. The collapse of the savings and loan banks with poor lending happened during his administration, and was handled by Treasury officials including current Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Mr. Bush is chiefly remembered for his negotiating the issues leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of Germany. His handling of the Iraq war left a unstable situation in Iraq that led to a major problem for his son George Bush who became president after Bill Clinton, leading to a second and protracted costly war in Iraq. The effects of that conflict led to the changes in the Republican Party with its new leader Mr. Trump and a U.S. non-interventionist policy in foreign conflicts. Greg Ip points to the defict reduction as a positive contribution under the elder Bush, yet much of these gains were wasted in the costly Iraq conflict with U.S. hasty intervention. ...

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A recent poll shows Mr. Trump increasing his support from a bloc of voters that disapprove of his job performance but still give credit to Mr. Trump for an improving economy. A new WSJ/NBC poll shows 51% of Americans disapprove of his overall job performance, with 46% approving. The same percentage that say they disapprove of job performance are also saying they give him credit for a stronger economy up from the 44% in April 2017 who said they approved his way of handling the economy. Wages have increased 3.2%  in each of the last 2 months and unemployment is at an historic low over 50 years. One group that has a 10 point gap when it comes to the economic performance is among Independents, where 38% approve of Mr. Trump but 48% approve his economic performance. A big jump is among Hispanics who have benefited greatly with new jobs in construction and other areas of the economy. Trump's 46% approval rating in May 2019 is among the highest he has achieved, rising 3 points since the last identical poll in March 2019. About 29% still think the Mueller Report clears Mr. Trump of wrongdoing as they did in March. Still things can change as 42% believe the Mueller Report does not clear Mr. Trump of wrongdoing, and another 29% haven't made up their mind. On impeachment hearings about 48% think Congress should let Mr. Trump finish out his term, 49% think there is either enough evidence or Congress should continue investigating with an eye to future impeachment hearings. The survey margin of error is about 4 percentage points, covers 900 adults.  ...

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Anti-establishment government in Italy supported by the 5 Star Movement and and the Northern League set a 2.4% of GDP deficit target for 2019, triple what the earlier government had planned. This sets up a clash with the European Union over rules for deficit after the European debt crisis. Finance Minister Tria set the target at 1.6% initially, later increasing it to 2.4% to increase growth.