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Spain's weakness lies in the bursting of its housing bubble and in the debt of its savings banks, the cajas. The cajas will need to rollover 100 billion euros of debt in the next 2 years. Uncertainty is also increased because its not clear how much bad debt is in the cajas. The regional governments in Spain also hold large amounts of debt.

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Christopher Power talks to three former IMF officials. If offered the Greece portfolio at the IMF, Simon Johnson, (a former IMF official) says he would ask for a transfer to Iceland, because Greece is incredibly complex, with the IMF unlikely to impose conditions. Especially with IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn's aspirations to become President of France. The ECB controls Greek monetary policy and there is no chance of a devaluation with the Greeks in the euro currency. This leaves Greece locked into an unsustainable currency rate. Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Mussa, both agree that the IMF can help buy time for Greece with bridge loans and laying a framework for confidence. Mussa points to the Greek problem- the credit markets won't buy their bonds forever and at the same time its a nasty business to have a sovereign default in the euro currency area. Mussa sees the situation as much like that of GM. Bush bought time for an orderly transition should GM have to declare bankruptcy, which is what happened under Obama. With the European recovery weak, Portugal and Spain fragile, an orderly arrangement is critical not to upset markets. Its like kicking the can down the street, says Mussa, but that can have some advantages. ...

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Floyd Norris says the announcement by the ECB on Dec. 20, 2011, that 523 banks borrowed 489 billion euros under the newly created Long Term Financing Operation goes a long way towards giving Europe time to address the debt crisis. A major problem is recapitalization of European banks and the ECB's action helps address this problem. This is one of the achievements of the December summit of European leaders, though it was not the way markets had expected. Markets were focussed on large scale bond buying by the European Central Bank or issuance of euro bonds. ECB head, Mario Draghi, aware of widespread opposition in Germany to such proposals made it clear this was not going to happen. The Long Term Financing Operation of the ECB provides unlimited amounts of loans to European banks at 1% for 3 years, and accepts sovereign government debt as well as other types of securities as collateral. The result of this action was to lower the yield on a recent Spanish bond auction to 1.7% for three month bills from 5.1% the prior month. Spanish and Italian banks can now buy government debt of their countries and use the bonds as collateral at the ECB for three year loans at 1%. This Norris estimates will generate profits of about 37 billion euros for European banks from the difference between the ECB rate of 1% and the rate on two year bonds of Spain and Italy of 3.6% and 5.1% respectively for the bond purchases of 489 billion euros- calculated on a spread of 2.5 percentage points over three years. Another infusion of funds from the ECB will occur in February 2012. The new capital infusion gives European banks less reason to reduce lending in the eurozone as they work to meet the higher capital reserve requirements set under new Basel III rules. This is especially important given the austerity measures being implemented across the eurozone countries and Britain to reduce government deficits, and in light of the lower growth expected as a result....

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Thomas Bach is a German fencing athlete who won the Olympic Gold medal. He is from Wurzburg, Germany and was elected in 2013, in office as International Olympic Committee president till 2025. In the new election in 2025 Bach supported Coventry of Zimbabwe, a winner of the gold medal in swimming for the job, over a candidate from Spain whose father Samaranch held the same job, and COE a candidate from Britain. Other candidates were from Japan and France. The process of voting and the people voting is not representative of the world's people. As countries such as Germany and Spain are dominant. Britain and France, China and India have never elected a representative from their country as IOC president in the 20th century or the 21st. IOC presidents are there for long periods, as long as 20 years. Avery Brundage of the US was IOC president from 1952-1972  for 20 years followed by Morris of Ireland for 7 years. Following this in 1980 another 20 year term for a Spanish businessman Antonio Samaranch, whose son tried to run in 2025. In 2001 12 years for a Belgian Jacques Rogge, followed by another 12 years for German Thomas Bach.  In 20th century no one from France or Greece, no one from India or China has been elected IOC president and the election process is an insider's affair, even thought the games are watched in China, India and other parts of the world by hundreds of millions of people. ...

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A behind the scenes account of the chain of events after the meeting of French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel at the seaside resort of Deauville, France, on October 18, 2010. Based on interviews with EU officials this account shows how these events are leading to closer union of the 16 nations of the European Union. At the seaside meeting Sarkozy met privately with Merkel. Merkel offered to take back the German demand for automatic penalties for nations failing debt guidelines. She insisted that bondholders should bear losses if a member nation of the EU defaults. The French president agreed to accept the German condition knowing that Germany was reluctant to support the bailout fund beyond 2013, and German public opinion was souring on the bailout. The European Central Bank president, Trichet, was furious that the two leaders were undercutting his efforts to create confidence in the euro. Trichet told Sarkozy, he must not understand how serious the situation was. Sarkozy told Trichet, "you must be talking to the bankers," "we are responsible to the citizens." Weeks of negotiating between the ECB and the Irish government followed, leading to the bailout of Ireland. The contagion effects on Portugal and Spain created more tensions for the euro. Merkel softened the German position and the EU leaders meeting in December 2010 moved in the direction of a closer union. Bondholders would still take losses but only if one of the EU member states were to become insolvent. And after months of discussion and debate the EU leaders realized that the only way forward for the European experiment was to build a closer financial union. Germany's future, Merkel told the German parliament, was in Europe....

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With Britain not willing to join an EU wide agreement for all 27 countries in the region, Sweden and the Czech Republic asking for time to consult its parliament, and Hungary declining, only 23 EU countries are now on board for new EU wide treaty changes for fiscal discipline. This makes new EU treaty changes unlikely, and means France and Germany will move ahead with a eurozone agreement for the 17 nation group. This can be done much faster than the cumbersome process for EU treaty revisions. The details of the new agreement will be worked out in the coming weeks and should restore confidence in financial markets. The problem now most experts say is that a new agreement might move too quickly to reduce deficits, worsening the economic prospects in the European Union countries. Fernando Fernandez, an economist at IE Business School in Madrid, says the critical question is how much time countries will be given to meet new rules. If for instance debt is to be reduced by 20 percentage points of GDP in 3 years under new rules, this would impact eurozone growth severely with sharp contractions in already fragile economies. Peter Morici, business professor at the University of Maryland, underscores this, saying Germany is close to zero growth and economies of countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy are contracting. Higher unemployment will result with smaller tax bases, making the situation appear to improve as borrowing rates for Italy drop now, but worsening the situation in 2012-2013 as deficit projections are not attainable. This is already true in Britain where earlier deficit projections are being pushed into future years as economic growth is declining....

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Krugman calls the fiscal compact agreement in Europe and the efforts to impose austerity measures- at a time of 24% unemployment in Spain- simply insane and a form of economic suicide. A different view was expressed by Martin Feldstein in the WSJ, April 5, 2012, Europe Needs the Bond Vigilantes, in which he pointed to areas in the Fiscal Compact agreement for Europe that do not impose strict spending limits.

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The Markit surveys for manufacturing orders measures manufacturers response to whether business is getting better or worse in eight countries, the U.S., China, Japan, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The figure 50 means that the same number of companies are saying orders are improving as ones that are saying it is not improving. For May 2012, the number is 50.5 for the U.S., 43.0 in Germany, and Italy 47.4.

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France and Germany remained far apart on approach to banking regulation in Dec. 2012. Germany does not support regulatory powers of the ECB over Germany's small and midsized savings banks which lend to small businesses and consumers. France supports regulation of all 6000 banks in the eurozone by the ECB. Germany also raises concerns about how the regulatory powers of the ECB can affect its powers in setting interest rates. Germany does not support the British position for regulatory powers over London based banks to remain in Britain. Coming up with a new banking supervisor for European banks with regulatory powers of supervision is needed for Spain to get access to additional EU financing. This is also part of the new financial architecture for the eurozone, including deposit guarantees, which needs to be set up.

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Tourism is boosting the economies of southern Europe. The tourist economy is ultra competitive in places such as Lisbon and Madrid because the  debt crisis of Spain, Portugal, Greece has led to devaluing their currencies with the US dollar. There are more American tourists in Portugal than Spanish tourists who are attracted by lower cost vacations. Europe now generates $500 million dollars from tourism one third of total tourist dollars worldwide. Portugal's economy is growing at 8%. This WSJ report looks at tourism in Portugal. It also raises questions about Southern Europe's overdependence on tourism industry which is cyclical.

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Spanish footballer Andres Iniesta retires at 40 years age in October 2024. He is Spain's most loved footballer for his humility and his skills.

Another loved footballer Argentina's Lionel Messi says of Iniesta-

“One of the most magical teammates and one of those who I most enjoyed playing together, Andrés Iniesta, the ball will miss you and so will we! I wish you all the best, you are a phenomenon."

Like Messi Iniesta is about 5-7 - 5-8 in height. Yet their speed with the ball was always amazing.

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Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, says Germany can move faster than expected to allow shared liability of eurozone debt. He also accepts the need for short term measures such as the European Stability Facility buying bonds of Spain and Italy in private markets to drive down yields. Schauble indicated this flexibility in an hour long interview with the WSJ on June 27, 2012. This comes after Angela Merkel's remarks made in talks with coalition partners the Free Democrats that she would not accept any mutualization of debt in the eurozone in her life time. Schauble reiterated his view that before joint liability of debt can take place there has to be a joint EU fiscal policy, and sequencing was critical. He called for a EU fiscal commissioner arrangement for reviewing EU member budgets and policies. At the same time he said Germany was open to some level of mutual financial support between members of the eurozone, under the right conditions.

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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The election of Sebastian Pinera only confirms a new emphasis in Latin America towards a social cohesion agenda. In Mexico with Calderon, in Columbia with Uribe, in Brazil with Luiz Inacio Da Silva, in Chile with Pinera promising to work closely with the Concertacion and carry on social programs introduced by that coalition which reduced poverty, the trend is the same. It is to put behind Latin America the struggles between the military, the universities, business, unions and other parts of society and forge a common consensus for coupling social programs for the less well off with business friendly policies to improve the economy. Its even a process that is taking place in Spain which has a great deal of influence on Latin America, as Spain combines social support programs with business friendly policies. And the Concertacion President in Chile, Michelle Bachelet, leaves with personal popularity ratings of about 75% showing that these policies are popular with Chileans, as they are in places like Brazil and Mexico. The fatigue with 20 year old Concertacion rule shows with a change in administration but overall policy direction will in large measure continue....

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Nvidia's Head of Engineering, Jonah Alben, is from Schenectady, upstate New York. Here he is credited with exporting the latest US advanced chips to China by reducing their effectiveness. US administrations Biden's and DJT's say this pushes the rules of export controls. It also undermines the US lead in advanced technologies needed for the US to keep the peace in the Pacific and in Europe as new tensions emerge over Taiwan and in Eastern Europe. For years the US egregiously restricted the flow of technologies to democracies such as India and allowed a concentration of semiconductor manufacture in Taiwan, over concentration of manufacturing in China, both of which led to supply chain issues in recent years and pose supply chain issues in the future. Ironically restrictions on technologies sale to India which with 1.4 billon people, and a similar culture in Indonesia forms homogenous culture of 1.7 billion people, is the only place of this size where parliamentary democracy has taken root. With an exercise of legislative assemblies through elections in all Indian states in the 1930's under the British with Mohandas Gandhi's leadership and example. Because of Gandhi and the leaders who preceded him Dadabhai Naoroji and Vivekananda in the 1890's India has older democratic forms than Germany, Japan, Italy, Spain and most of Europe, all of Asia, Latin America and Africa. It also has among the ordinary people a deep respect for Lincon, FDR and his fight to help Gandhi with Sukarno fight the British and Dutch Empires to bring freedom to 1.7 billion people.  ...

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New car sales are increasing rapidly in the EU market in 2015. For the 1st quarter 2015 sales were up 8.6% to 3.5 million units, and 11% in March 2015, over the prior year, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Sales up significantly in Spain by 41%, in Portugal by 42% and Italy 15%, Greece and Ireland by double digits, France 9.3%, Germany 9%, for March 2015 over the prior year.

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India crosses the 10 million mark in coronavirus cases for the first time on December 18, 2020. The number of deaths is at 146,000. The U.S. is the only other country with over 10 million cases. U.S. has 17 million cases and 318,000 deaths on December 18. The daily cases in India peaked in September at about 94,000 and have declined to 27,000 in December. The U.S. meanwhile is hit by a second wave that is much worse than the first. Daily cases now are close to 250,000 on December 18, 2020. The daily cases in the second wave are much more severe than the first. They have increased by a factor of 5 to 10 times. Places which got through the first wave without severe damage are hit hard in December. This includes Germany, and California. In California daily cases exceed 50,000 and in Germany 30,000. In California, France, Germany, and UK, Spain, the daily cases far exceed earlier cases in the first wave by a factor of 5 to 10 times. For this reason India needs to be wary of a resurgence in the pandemic in a second wave. With its large population, need for economic recovery, and opportunity to benefit from the vaccine developments and its strict protocols for testing, isolation and social distancing, mask wearing, India can carefully and vigilantly prepare for the second wave. ...

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Adam Taylor explains what Brexit is about. What should be added is that Brexit is a child of the time in 2015-2016 when Angela Merkel was ill prepared to tackle the sudden wave of migrants from North Africa from wars and population growth outstripping what little progress was made, making decisions to let in close to a million migrants. Migrants are now being returned back to their home countries and the issue has faded. The austerity policies in the EU with Greece, Spain and Portugal as bad poster childs for the EU are also largely over, with economic recovery in Europe.  As a result confidence is growing in the future of the European Union. What pessimists including Mr. Trump saw as a breakup of the European Union is no longer the case. Britain's long negotiations and divisions for Brexit are now reinforcing an opposite conclusion- that it is beneficial to stay in the European Union. Fully 68% in a Eurobarometer Survey of 27 EU countries by the European Commission in March 2019 think so, only 17% think it is not beneficial. In Britain also a majority now support membership in the EU. The European Union and Britain have a lot to learn from this experience and the divisions generated, which is likely to be part of the acquired experience of a new generation of leaders.  ...

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Perpignan, France, is a small town at the foothills of the Pyrenees, near Spain. It was called Perpignan Catalan. Its mayor is Aliot who is from the RN National Rally party. It is one of the poorest regions in France. The RN was elected after several tries in which the other parties banded together against RN till it did not work anymore. This report in The Guardian looks a the change the RN brought and says it was about more police, cleanliness, and television. No structural changes have happened that would reduce poverty or bring more jobs and opportunity to the area, or improve the infrastructure and public services. As a result it is more visual but as one resident says I kept my doors open anyway, so that no real change happened. This change for the better has not happened under Macron and it is this frustration that led voters to give Aliot and RN a chance in Perpignan. Yet this report shows it has not changed much, that the poverty and lack of opportunity is real and other solutions than RN are needed. And still the LR and Macron's Renaissance party keep making derogatory remarks and labelling the alternatives from the Socialist parties as unrealistic even though the Socialist Alliance calls for investing $140 billion in infrastructure, public services and cost of living action to improve the lives of ordinary working people and families. ...

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In May 2023 Germany's Scholz overruled Habeck to let sale of 24.9% of Hamburg port to COSCO go through. Here is how over 2000-2016 China build its world class network of containerized shipping ports while the second Bush added the war in Afghanistan to the wars in Iraq started by Reagan/Bush. Without defense costs China built this world ports network. Piraeus in Greece, south of Athens, a port concession acquired in 2004 Antwerp in Belgium (Austrian Netherlands), a minority stake in a container port acquired in 2008. In 2013 with sale of Terminal Link ports in a Cosco 49% stake deal by CMA of France CMA holding 51%, China has stakes in Zeerbrugge and Antwerp, Busan South Korea, and Le Havre, Montoir and Fos in France, Xiamen in China, Miami and Houston in US. Rotterdam, Netherlands- Cosco acquired in 2016 a 35% stake in Euromax Terminal in Rotterdam from Hong Kong's Hutchison's Holdings for $125 million. Valencia and Bilbao majority  51% stake for $270 million, when JP Morgan paid as much as $950 million to ACS of Spain for these ports after the 2009 crisis led to Spanish divestments. Today measured in TEU shipping containers China sends goods to Europe 10 times what it takes in through Spanish ports. ...

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Le Monde asks what is the role of religion in the founding of the US from the time of Mayflower Compact 1620 by Calvinist preachers? Two books published after the failure of the Spanish Armada naval invasion of Britain under Queen Elizabeth in 1588 set the stage for an alternative colonization of America and Britain's effort to contest the Americas against the Catholic monarchs of Spain. Agnes Delahaye, Prof of American Civilization at Lumiere University Lyon 2, in France, describes this in an interview in Le Monde. Her book is Adventurers, Puritans, Pilgrims, Amerca's Founding Myths. The first book in 1583 that set the stage for English exploration in the Americas is- A Short Account of the Destruction of the Indies by a Dominican missionary, Bartolome de las Casas, and says the Spanish solders tarnished and ruined their Christian duty. The second in 1584 was Discourse of Western Planting by Richard Hakluyt showed Queen Elizabeth with the true religious conviction and practice against the Spanish "black legend," of conquest, and unChristian treatment of native Americans. The Pilgrim Fathers and the migration on the Mayflower and other British ships came through this movement. The settlers around 1600 came from small Calvinist congregations under Brewster and Robinson. Mayflower Compact was the constitutional document in 1620 setting forth their aims. ...

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Mr. Trump told Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar at the White House he is disappointed with the way Brexit has evolved in the three years since he supported Brexit during the election campaign. Trump said "it is tearing the country apart. Its actually tearing a lot of countries apart."  After a series of votes in the British parliament Trump told reporters he gave May some negotiating advice. "I gave the prime minister my ideas on how to negotiate. I think she would have been successful., she did'nt listen to that." So what happened? What advice did Trump give on negotiating? There are only some hints on this. Theresa May told the BBC in an interview after Trump's visit to London in July 2018- "He told me I should sue the E.U. -not go into negotiations., Sue them."  Trump made a prediction a day after the referendum to Leave saying "the E.U. is going to break up." This was at the time of the financial crisis in the European Union with problems in Greece, Spain and Portugal. Since then the economies of these countries revived. Spain has 3% growth for three years even though it faces fresh elections. In his 2000 book "The America we Deserve" Trump pointed out his sense threat the U.S. should pull back from the E.U and save millions of dollars annually. In recent years he has suggested that the E.U was "a foe"  and "it was formed as a consortium so that it could compete with the United States." The problems in Europe happened in the period 2016-2018 with divisions emerging on the issue of immigration. This wave of immigration was a result of Arab and African conflicts and lag in Africa between development and the rapidly rising population. Chancellor Merkel was ill prepared to handle this wave of immigration and in retrospect her policy did little to address the roots of the problems of immigration from North Africa, a policy later adopted when popular support for immigration of this kind and scale declined. It affected the vote for Brexit playing into deep seated doubts about the benefits of EU membership in parts of Britain.  Mr. Trump supports no-deal Brexit which was defeated by large margins in the British parliament and lacks support across all parts of society, business and political parties in Britain. Trump own sense that Brexit has divided many countries and his dialogue with the Irish prime minister must show an awareness of the views of Ireland about the hard won peace and E.U. borders in Ireland.     ...

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DJT tariffs are compared to tariff increases from 38% to 49% under president McKinley in 1898. As Ways and Means Committee chairman McKinley stood for higher tariffs but on a reciprocal basis and later in his term which ended in 1901 McKinley supported tariff reduction to improve American exports. McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt his vice president in 1900 are role models for DJT. McKinley's other policies were to keep the country on the gold standard rejecting a silver standard proposed by William Jennings Bryan that was seen as inflationary. He also followed the Monroe Doctrine that rejected interference of European powers in the American subcontinent by taking Cuba and Guam, Spanish possessions in the American continent and the Philippines during the Spanish American War of 1898, that brought Teddy Roosevelt to national attention.  As Assistant Secretary of the Navy under McKinley, and author of the Naval War of 1812, Teddy Roosevelt too strong action to build up America's Navy and he took decisive action against Spain after sinking of the Maine in Havana harbor. Roosevelt said- "I would regard war with Spain from two viewpoints: first, the advisability on the grounds both of humanity and self-interest of interfering on behalf of the Cubans, and of taking one more step toward the complete freeing of America from European dominion; second, the benefit done our people by giving them something to think of which is not material gain, and especially the benefit done our military forces by trying both the Navy and Army in actual practice." ...

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This exceptional report in DW.com covers a topic rarely tackled directly. How does society and the government tackle the growing problem of anorexia among young women, and the way advertising has promoted this idea through unrealistic even dangerous standards of beauty. Regulations in France prohibit underweight women being employed as models. Spain has introduced similar legislation. This is one of the many problems that are tackled on a bipartisan basis by the CDU, CSU and the SPD parties as a coalition government is formed. The head of the SPD parliamentary group, Karl Lauterbach, says this is an illness with a hgih mortality rate for women in Germany. The CSU agrees with this and new legislation is being planned to require realistic standards in advertising and in hiring of women in advertising.

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Britain recorded the most deaths in Europe. Brazil and Russia have over 10,000 cases of coronavirus each, and the U.S. records cases close to that in the peak in April. Cases were up worldwide for May 6 to 92,000 with a quarter of these cases or about 24,000 in the U.S. The jump in cases takes the total to 3.77 million with a third of them in the U.S., according to John Hopkins database. Russia and Brazil had a slow start but are now registering large numbers of cases showing that India and other countries with limited testing could face the same situation. Russia has ramped up testing, and so have the U.S. and the UK. Moscow's mayor Sergei Sobyanin says for example that about 300,000 of the 12 million people in Moscow have the virus based on sampling surveys, more than 3 times the confirmed cases. Restrictions remain in place in Moscow beyond May 11.  Countries that were hit earlier by the virus such as Spain and France are reopening gradually after May 11. France will use red and green zones to handle restrictions so that the restrictions are customized to each place in the country. ...