LyrArc Article Gist
Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

LyrArc Article Gist
The situation in the U.S. for unemployment by state in Dec. 2011 as seen through statistics from the Labor Department. Losses in jobs at the local government level offset gains in Georgia in the private sector. Texas, Louisiana, Okalahoma, oil producing states have done well. States which suffered from the housing crisis such Florida, Arizona and Nevada, see unemployment lower than at the peak of the housing crisis. Michigan's unemployment rate is lower with the recovery in the automobile industry. North Dakota and Alaska, other oil producing states show jobs growth. For the U.S. private sector employment is up 2.8% since the low point, but job losses in local and federal governmet lead to an overall gain of 1.9%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Medtronic's former CEO, Bill George, says Medtronic's plan to reincorporate in Ireland as part of the merger with Covidien is intended to make it possible to use cash piled up overseas. The cash overseas if repatriated to the U.S. would incur corporate taxes of 35%. Medtronic can use its overseas cash resources to finance the acquisition of Covidien. The combination of the two companies will enhance cash flow, says Medtronic's CEO, Omar Ishak. Covidien's overseas cash and future earning from its businesses is not subject to U.S. repatriation taxes. As a result the combined company following merger will have only 40% of total cash "trapped" overseas, compared to 60% before a merger.

LyrArc Article Gist
Value of a college degree in US not what it once was. Pew Research shows dissatisfaction among young people and the young vote evenly divided between the two main parties in the US in 2025.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Jan. 6 Committee of the US Congress refers charges against former president Trump to the US Justice Department. This includes efforts to subvert the results of the election that elected Joe Biden as president.

LyrArc Article Gist
The problems that hit the UK economy with the announcement of unfunded tax cuts were worsened by very poor communications, the cavalier attitude of the new Truss government and finance minister Kwarteng, and a lack of experience, says this report in the WSJ.The toxic mix of inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the US, and the conflicting messages from the Conservative party with critics within the Conservatives calling the step misguided, had a strong impact on financial markets. Yields on British government bonds jumped beyond that of Greece and Italy, and the British pound fell with large drops in its value falling to 1.03 to the US dollar. Only the intervention by the Bank of England helped recover the pound to $1.11 and yields that went up from 3.6% to over 5% to drop back down to 3.8%. Many other countries face the same high inflation and rising interest rates in the US, so that poorly managed political situations such as the leadership race in the Conservatives party in the UK can have damaging economic consequences. This is a point of caution for other countries economies and governments says the WSJ. Italy's new government coalition has managed to keep expectations of major changes to policy to the Draghi government to the minimum in anticipation of economic problems that could emerge with differences with the European Union, and to avoid poorly managed communications. This is true of all countries in the world and a reminder of the importance of correct messaging in financial markets, and taking a prudent role of funding extra spending programs. This was also done in the $360 billion Inflation Reduction Act and Climate bill of 2022 by the Biden administration. where the dollar spending was adequately accounted for with policies considered prudent to tackle climate change, support badly impacted segments of society, and new infrastructure. This is a learning lesson for other governments. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the Journal provides reflections on U.S. foreign policy in the Obama years and advice for U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney before the third presidential debate on foreign policy on Oct. 22, 2012. It says the U.S. has always done better from a position of economic strength and defense preparedness in addressing foreign policy issues. It also points to the failure of president Obama to support the freedom struggle of the peoples of the Middle East, and a withdrawal from Iraq without securing an agreement that failed to consolidate the gains of the long conflict and resources spent in that region.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's GDP declines by 6.8% in the first quarter 2020 year over year, and 9.8% from the previous quarter, the first such decline since 1992, even going as far back as 1976 with the passing of the Mao era. It is not power production or coal consumption which have returned to prior levels. It is the demand from the U.S. and Europe, other countries which are in lockdowns. Estimates are that 80 million people in a population of 900 million working age people lost their jobs, with another 10 million expected to be lost, about 10% of the total. Global trade companies are hardest hit.  Consumers inside China are reducing spending. Some are using only the small government issued vouchers designed to get people to go out and spend.  The Trump administration plans to bring back some of the production lost to China in essential areas such as public health and security back to the U.S. The supply chains are already shifting to other countries from U.S. tariffs. As a result some estimates show zero growth in 2020 for China. Financial instability and prior leveraging concerns remain to prevent any serious stimulus. By contrast the U.S. is cushioning the impact with $2 trillion aid package benefitting from a strong dollar and healthy economy before the virus. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A NYT video simulation that shows how early action is critical with decisive steps for quarantine and lockdown with enforcement, to control the spread of coronavirus. It shows the spread along a timeline of the coronavirus in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krauthammer says President Obama has failed to come out openly in support of the Bowles-Simpson commission's recommendations on deficit reduction. The recommendations were made in December 2011. The President's February 2011 budget did not take up these recommendations. He gets a sense that there is too much electioneering in the Obama posture on deficit reduction- being in the best position for the 2012 presidential election rather than a sincere effort. He suggests the Republicans pursue a short term debt ceiling hike of $500 billion containing $500 billion in budget cuts by passing this in the House. And couple this with a call to follow the Simpson-Bowles recommendations which, in one option, cut $1.1 trillion of deductions, credits and loopholes while lowering tax rates across the board to a top rate of 23%. This would give enough time to come up with a thoughtful and open effort with public scrutiny, and is preferable to the current closed door negotiations without the deliberations necessary for decisions of such far reaching consequences. Failing this there is the McConnell Plan B. Boles- Simpson focussed on tax expenditures as a key part of their plan. Martin Feldstein and other experts also point to limiting or eliminating "tax expenditures" (the deductions and loopholes that reduce revenues) as a key part of the solution to the U.S. deficit problem....

LyrArc Article Gist
Burton Malkiel says other ways to rebalance and adjust allocations after the surge in equity prices in the U.S. and Europe are to invest in high quality emerging market bonds, quality U.S. municipal bonds with rates of 7%, high quality large caps with dividends over 5%, and quality emerging market stocks which are at price earning multiples of 10.

LyrArc Article Gist
Some readers of WSJ in their comments found this story about travel overseas a bit pretentious and privileged, but we have put this in anyway, as it reflects a sincere attempt to share experience. Some of it relates to slowing down in travel to relate to nature as one gets older. Some of it to explore new or fascinating places that have some meaning for us. A recent visit to the Golden Temple in Amritsar, India, and the original Golden Temple in Amritsar from ancient history, both under night skies and waters surrounding the temple had the same effect. Spending nights looking up at the night sky at constellations, hearing stories about them and learning about them as the writers say is an experience that is precious at this time of the pandemic. Slowing down is an experience we can all do such as taking train trips as the writers say they did from Denver to California. This allows one to explore nature at a slower pace. A trip to the St Lawrence Seaway in Quebec and up the St Lawrence river was one of those experiences in the wilderness that had the same impact.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
How GE stock is picking up in spite of the sub prime losses because of growth in its infrastructure, health care and aviation businesses. Also if the company cannot find good investments it will return it to shareholders with a share buyback of $27 billion estimated by end 2008. What will it do to GE's stock price?

LyrArc Article Gist
The most recent U.S Congressional Budget Office projections make assumptions of an higher U.S. unemployment rate for the next 10 years. This worsens the outlook for the U.S. deficit. The CBO projections assume unemployment of 8.5% by the end of 2012, remaining over 8% till 2014. The deficit for fiscal 2012 is projected to be $973 billion, or 6.2% of GDP. This is down from $1.3 trillion, or 8.5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2011, after spending cuts. Over the coming ten years CBO projects cumulative deficits of $8.5 trillion and U.S. debt at 82% of GDP in 2021, under a scenario where Congress renews the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts, and is unable to reduce fees paid to doctors under Medicare. The gap between revenue and spending is widening- revenues are at 15.3% of GDP in 2011 and spending is 23.8% of GDP.

LyrArc Article Gist
After a weeks long standoff both sides disengage expeditiously in the India's border dispute with China over construction of a road in the Doklam plateau region of Bhutan. In this NYT report experts in Hong Kong point out that it is not in China's economic interest with an aging population and debt crisis, tense economic relations with the U.S., and for India struggling with modernization issues, to turn a remote border issue into an open conflict. It would also complicate relations in the Asian region with Japan and economic relations with the U.S, countries with whom China's economy is intertwined through supply chains and other ways. Disputes with China and South Korea have in the past affected the Chinese economy, and China has developed trade with India as its companies look for growing markets. India's Modi administration is focussed on the economy. In this context of broader relations the road construction in Doklam appears to be an aberration that is hard to explain except as a miscalculation and poor understanding of the best interests of the region and of the world.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The US under president DJT puts out a new National Security Strategy in a document which states it clearly. The days of the Middle East given importance are thankfully over it says. The focus is on the First Islands, from Taiwan, Philippines to Japan for strengthening defense in relation to China. The Monroe Doctrine is now part of US foreign policy with a DJT addition- "that the American people- not foreign nations or globalist institutions- will always control our own destiny in our hemisphere."  It also means the US has a new policy towards Russia and for NATO.  The DJT administration priority, it states, is “ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” The new strategy is that Europe needs to “take primary responsibility for its own defense.” The Monroe Doctrine and the disassociation with NATO expansion are linked. How so? Russia's foreign policy is for winning recognition as a Northern European Power with its own version of the Monroe Doctrine, being able to control its destiny in its sphere of influence. The way the Monroe Doctrine was implemented in 1823 was by a tacit recognition gained from Britain that it would support the US in its idea of no European colonial powers (France, Spain other ) being allowed to interfere in Latin America, in the western hemisphere. In 2025 the way the Monroe Doctrine is implemented with the DJT Corollary is that the US is tacitly gaining support from Russia/China for implementing the Monroe Doctrine so that no foreign powers will interfere in US sphere influence in the western hemisphere.  Where does this leave Europe and Ukraine? European Union and NATO expansion has now gone too far and NATO which was primarily for Cold War struggle between Communism and US/UK style democracies is over, but NATO has not been disbanded, or a new alliance setup with new goals. Instead as it lingers on it has created new problems such as NATO expansion to the borders of Russia, creating security risks for Russia. This has led to the war in Ukraine and the Republican administration under DJT seeks to defuse tensions and the Ukraine war by excluding NATO expansion, removing the US from European security by delegating that back to Europe (Germany and France, Italy, UK) and by acting as a moderating influence between Russia and Germany, France, that see Russia as a threat after it's attack on Ukraine. US also upholds the policy and principle of no nation invading another country, as Russia did with Ukraine, and in anticipation of the China threat to Taiwan. This part gets nuanced but the overall policy is coherent and Russia accepts this, China is gradually coming to the idea that it has to accept this situation with Taiwan to preserve its economic advances and its exports to the US and EU.  In practice once the interference of China or Russia is removed and European powers in addition, the US has freedom of action in the Western hemisphere and Latin America to prevent crises such as with drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, and unstable regimes sending people north to the US across the Mexican border as from Central America and Venezuela.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
What is California's position in nuclear and renewables and does the substance the facts justify the image it promotes of being energy friendly and using renewables? Answer is NO  because only 9% of its total end use energy consumption according to EIA figures (2023) comes from renewables. It uses no coal yet about 60% of its energy is from crude oil. During the current crisis in the war with Iran is California an example to follow? The answer is No because it has not used renewable energy the way Germany has or EU has, and it has not managed its crude oil well by not using domestic crude oil instead relying on imports, which only burden the global needs for crude oil coming from a state with capacity to do lot better. By comparison Germany gets 23% of its total energy consumption from renewables compared to 9% for California, and for Germany 60% of its total electricity production is from renewables compared to 46% for California. EIA data shown here from US government data does not paint a very energy friendly picture. California's imports of crude oil at 75% of consumption and drop in refineries from 48 to 3 shows it has not managed the oil refining side of energy in the best way possible. How does it rate in making good use of energy? Here it uses 174 million BTU's per capita no different than New York at 174 and about the same as Florida and Washington DC, Massachusetts, Maryland.  And Germany has achieved 122 million BTU per capita showing California far behind. How does it rate in using renewables and nuclear? As it is a state with urban and suburban sprawl with large driving distances it uses a lot of crude oil for transportation. Petroleum or crude oil use is 58% of total energy use, Natural gas 25, Renewables are only 3%, electricity generation is 14% of which only 46% is from renewables. California is NOT the model for the US. We have to look elsewhere for answers.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Cecilia Wang of Taiwanese parents with student visas in the 1970's calls it an 128 year American tradition, but is it really the case that it was one individual case for Chinese immigrant Wang Kim in 1998 case before the US Supreme Court where it made sense for the Court to let Wang Kim stay, just as it makes sense for someone in the country for over 10 years to stay in Britain. Birthright citizenship is something else entirely and history shows that forget birthright citizenship for Asians- for most of the 19th century and over half of the twentieth century till the 1960's American public and Congress opposed any form of immigration from Asia. It was only under John F. Kennedy who was Irish, had served in the Pacific in Asia, that the idea of giving Asians citizenship was given credibility and acceptance with the American public and in the US Congress.  Without JFK and LBJ this opening for Asian immigrants coming legally in large numbers for education would never have happened, not under Nixon-Ford-Reagan-Bush. And the modernization of Asia, of Japan, China, now India could not have happened without knowledge of new technologies in American universities gathered by these visitors who were also allowed to work and stay legally. For this reason common sense is a more valuable way to approach this. Misuse and misrepresentation would only create the feeling that Asian Americans- who have integrated into the fabric of America and whose sons and daughters have benefitted the most from the gracious invitation of JFK and LBJ- who are mostly highly educated and can draw on the best economic opportunities the Nation has to offer, want to see their own interests only, and not the Nation as a whole as it struggles to bring a improvement in the lives of the have-nots in today's society, the less educated, the low income workers often immigrants from Latin American countries, those struggling to make ends meet in this economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Osam Bin Laden is killed in a U.S. special forces attack on a compound 40 miles from Islamabad. The area known as Abbottabad is also the location of a Pakistani military academy. One Pakistani helicopter and 2 American helicopters were involved in the attack. Experts say this changes the dynamic of the war, with the U.S. keen on a disengagement in Afghanistan, and Pakistani concerns about the expanded U.S. footprint in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region working in the same direction. This also comes at a time when the Middle East is no longer what it looked like a decade ago. Democracy protests have changed the way ordinary Arabs look at the world. In recent months Pakistan's relationship with the U.S. has grown tense. Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that top civilian and military leaders of Pakistan met with the Afghan government leaders in Kabul recently. At the meeting Pakistan's leaders suggested that it would be better for Afghanistan to move closer to Pakistan and China, and distance itself from the U.S. The Pakistani leadership must be aware of domestic politics in the U.S., the changes in the Arab world, the desire of Americans and the U.S. government to wind down America's military involvement, and decided that the removal of Osama would give give America less reason to continue its military presence....

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden renews the US commitment to Asia on the second day of Quad meetings in Tokyo. Lessons from Ukraine were uppermost in the thinking of the Quad leaders from the US, Japan, India and Australia as a new framework is envisioned for Asia. That framework is envisioned through an economic framework the IPEF including South East Asia, the Quad as a core nation setup similar to the G-7, and direct ties such as US-India, US-Japan. Latin America is part of the US direct ties to Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Europe is included through the Europe Trade and Technology Council and direct US ties with the European Union, Germany, France and Italy. President Biden is giving the kind of leadership of the Free World that Harry Truman gave following the Berlin Soviet Blockade and the US Airlift of 1948-1949 and the Korean War between 1950-1953 with Soviet and Chinese forces supporting the attack of North Korea against South Kporea similar to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This NYT report says US president Biden is different from past presidents in two ways. He is pushing for infrastructure spending on a big scale from the very beginning of his administration. He is also not interested in shrinking his plans for multi-trillion dollar infrastructure spending to win support from Republicans. A big reason is that he sees the opportunity to go ahead because the perceptions of the American people have changed in the last five years, and have changed even more in the last year with the pandemic. Health, education,  infrastructure, and competitive technology leadership resource development spending with government playing a leading role is seen as indispensable for the US as a nation if it is to play the leading role that it has played over much of the last 100 years. Government leadership is seen as indispensable including in redesigning the existing global supply chain so that the US is no longer dependent on other nations and taking on risks. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The University of Washington Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation has doubled its forecast of coronavirus deaths in the U.S. to 135,000, about twice what it is today at 69,000, by early August 2020. This is based on the assumption that with reopening the economy and return to actively operating in offices and shops, in construction and factories, the social distancing will be relaxed. Factors such as rising temperatures are not seen as offsetting the increased mobility in reopening. Dr. Fauci, top U.S. infectious disease official said on My 4, that the relaxing of social distancing could get a rebound started considering the coronavirus "phenomenal capabilities of spreading like wildfire." There is concern that the cases may be much higher in Brazil where there is not much testing, even higher than in the U.S. according to one university study. Argentina is a contrast having imposed a lockdown much earlier and has only 246 coronavirus deaths. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The coronavirus is making implementation of the U.S. China trade deal less likely as Chinese imports from the U.S. decrease and China's exports continue to grow. China's exports to U.S. decreased by $60 billion but increased to other countries by $70 billion in 2019.

As a result the Trump administration is shifting its focus to another approach. The new multilateral approach is to combine the effort with allies Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and France. This would take the shape of a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to replace the old Obama period Trans Pacific Partnership which becomes defunct. The goal would be to build new supply chains with allies in Asia outside of China with the help of France and other countries that are wary of excessive dependence on China and have deep reservations of China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

LyrArc Article Gist
Obesity is a problem today of global dimensions. In the U.S. this problem has reached a new high and increased U.S. risks in the face of the coronavirus. This author and her nutrition organization say the U.S. dietary guidelines put out by a government agency have failed over decades to do what they were supposed to do - guide people in the right direction to make good food choices. People at this time of the coronavirus need to make their own choices, independent of these guidelines that have failed. Intuitive choices for healthy eating by increasing vegetables and fruits in the diet, increasing use of healthy herbs such as turmeric, basil and ginger, eating carbohydrates and fat in a sensible way, increasing ancient whole grains in the diet, reducing meat in the diet in favor of plant based foods such as lentils and a large variety of whole grains.