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Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi says it is logical because of the situation in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria, for consuming countries to build up stocks. This will not have a depressing effect on oil prices, and it will help keep prices stable. Economic growth is not affected by $60 a barrel oil as long as it does not go higher, says Naimi.

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If there is no good succession in Medvedev's view the economic and social development of Russia will slow down significantly, for this reason the First Deputy Prime Minister under Putin puts a lot of significance on getting a good leader in place to continue the development progress of recent years. It is interesting that the thought process behind the remarks shows that the person has reflected a lot on these things, on leadership and good succession and its role in development, on a government and the importance of a good constitution and getting the best out of it, on studying the experience of other countries and being aware of their historical development, the role of a national leader, the constitution and everybody abiding by it, on corruption and its presence in latent and other forms and its different character in different societies. He talks about the importance of a Presidential system for Russia with strong presidential power, and the complete unsuitability of a parliamentary republic for Russia because it appears that the government could end up being weak with a many party coalition, especially in Russia at this time where there are many parties and factions each would be jockeying for power. Coalition governments would not accomplish much leading to stalled economic and social development. Manufacturing is very important to Russia, and adding a high portion of the value added to products is very important,  that Medvedev understands. It appears he has reflected on a lot of things that matter to Russia's development, and would make a different kind of President than Putin. He just might carry forward Russia's development for the next 8 years in a proper manner. From the standpoint of oil prices and availability of supplies, a good environment for cooperation in the energy sector between foreign companies and Russian companies, it appears that Medvedev would offer good leadership for the next 8 years in a Medvedev- Putin combination as President and Prime Minister, a Medvedev-Putin administration. This would also be true in the manufacturing sector in the expanding industries like automobiles and others. ...

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The Bank of Mexico, Mexico's central bank, cuts interest rates by half a percentage point to 3% in June 2014. The consumer price index is at 3.4% for 12 months through mid-May, and the central bank sees the inflation target of 3% by early 2015 as achievable. The central bank's estimate for GDP growth in 2014 was lowered to 2.8% from 3.5%. GDP growth was annualized 1.1% for the 1st quarter of 2014. Mexico has failed to live up to the growth expectations after the new Nieto administration's efforts to jumpstart the economy and opening up of the state oil industry to foreign investment. The policy changes of the Nieto administration set the future course of the economy and will take time to deliver results in economic growth. More effective administration and execution is needed for economic growth.

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Iran plans an ambitious $50 billion investment program to expand oil and gas output in the next 4 years. About half of that coming from Iran and the rest from outside oil companies. Iran expects to earn $54 billion in oil exports in 2006 vs. $47 billion in 2005. Iranian production represents 5% of global supply, about 4 million barrels a day. Only about 2.5 million of this is available for export. Iran has 2 problems in oil use and production. Gasoline use is growing at about 10% a year. And oil production is declining by about 5-6% a year from existing fields. The investment program over the next 4 years would increase production from new fields by about 1.3 billion barrels, but with existing fields generating less each year this will only generate about 500,000 barrels of additional output beeyond the 4million barrels today. And with domestic use growing rapidly and new refinery capacity being added to meet domestic demand of 500,000 barrels a day even this would leave no more for export than the current level of 2.5 million barrels a day, or probably less with growing gasoline use inside Iran. These are Iranian Oil Minister Vaziri Hamaneh's numbers. What this means is that with economic sanctions the whole global supply picture and the world price of crude oil would be seriously affected by economic sanctions in the next 4 years, as the 2.5 million barrels a day export number would be reduced by the increase in domestic consumption of gasoline by 10% a year, and the decline in existing fields of 5-6% a year. In the short term two year horizon this adds upto loss of some 700,000 barrels a day, about 400,000 from decline in existing oil fields and 300,000 in increased domestic use, which are no longer available for export. Hamaneh pointed to the investment as evidence of Iran's good intentions as a supplier in an interview with te Wall Street Journal. He says Iran sees the importance of preserving its credibility as a reliable supplier. It does not want to cause hardship to consumers around the world. Another reason for the pragmatic position taken by Hamaneh is that Iran depends on oil exports for 40-50% of government revenue....

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Russian president Putin visit to China covered by NHK's Analysis. This is the first visit after being reelected for Putin. China's president visited European Union countries and Serbia, Hungary recently. China seeks to keep its relations with the EU and stabilize its economic relations with the US because of its weak economy. China benefits with supply of oil at better prices in its trade with Russia that has reached $240 billion, at a time it's economy faces a large debt burden and a collapsing real estate industry. It needs markets in the EU for surging exports of electric vehicles. Russia is also probably reassessing the situation in Ukraine to position itself for an eventual settlement, as China clearly has no interest in the war in Ukraine and seeks to limit any negative fallout from the conflict in its trade and economic relations with EU and US.

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"Yesterday, I spoke with President-elect Trump to congratulate him on his victory. And I assured him that I would direct my entire administration to work with his team to ensure a peaceful and orderly transition. That's what the American people deserve." "Yesterday, I also spoke with Vice President Harris. She's been a partner and a public servant. She ran an inspiring campaign, and everyone got to see something that I learned early on to respect so much: her character. She has a backbone like a ramrod. She has great character, true character. She gave her whole heart and effort, and she and her entire team should be proud of the campaign they ran." "You know, the struggle for the soul of America since our very founding has always been an ongoing debate and still vital today. I know, for some people, it's a time for victory, to state the obvious. For others, it's a time of loss." "Campaigns are contests of competing visions. The country chooses one or the other. We accept the choice the country made. I've said many times you can't love your country only when you win. You can't love your neighbor only when you agree." ...

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The Maduro government and its predecessors caused the largest refugee crisis in the history of Latin America. The opposition leader won the last election in 2024 and the results were not respected by the Maduro regime. About 8 million people, a third of the country were turned into refugees, and inflation reached over 300% making life difficult in a nation with abundant oil resources. Millions of Venezuelans crossed the Mexican border into the US during the Biden administration, aggravating the migration crisis, and leading to the defeat of the Democrats and a plan under the Republicans to tackle migration. This included the return of Venezuelans in the US and in other parts of Latin America including Peru, Chile, to their home country. Much of Venezuela's infrastructure and public services has "rotted" and the cost of living makes life extremely difficult for all Venezuelans. Venezuela is an example of what happens under utopian socialist schemes, and how military and inept governance can ruin a country blessed with natural resoures.     ...

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A big win for the US and a win-win for the European Union in the sense that it brings stability to the trade relationship. For the US it brings a level playing field in world trade that had suffered fo far too long from unfair advantages taken by Japan, Canada, European Union and other nations, in addition to the serious distortions of the world trade system with China's state version of capitalism financing an export model. So the first step was to straighten out the situation with partners and allies the US has supported in the past 75 years. US European Union Trade Agreement is reached July 27, 2025, at meeting between Von Der Leyen of Eu and DJT of the US in Scotland. It includes $750 billion EU purchases over 3 years of US oil and gas, LNG, nuclear fuel, semiconductors, etc and $650 billion in investments in US, including military purchases. It puts a 15% tariff on all products from the EU entering the US, replaces the tariff of about 5% under Biden. On Pharmaceuticals it is what the US president decides says Leyen, though for now it is included.  The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefovic says- “I think that what was most important for us was to make sure we would have this predictability and we would have stability for our businesses." ...

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China's affluent people could become nervous about the value of the currency and try to convert into dollars. Aaron Back of the WSJ poses the question what if the affluent 1-2% of China's urban population of 737 million convert the maximum of $50,000 permitted from yuan into dollars. He says the simple math shows this would result in outflows of around $370 billion to $740 billion. This does not include other ways in which money could exit the country. China's foreign exchange reserves are $3.3 trillon, but this includes illiquid investments such as loans to Venezuela for oil assets, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. With a large and aging population China has to have reserves to meet social security and other plans for the future. This means the reserves could quickly dwindle with unanticipated capital outflows. This is what keeps central bank PBOC planners focussed on limiting depreciation of the yuan currency.

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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This WSJ editorial sees president Biden's speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia as intended to give the Democrats the advantage in the midterm elections for Congress. It says Vice President Pence and other Republicans opposed Mr. Trump when he claimed he had won the election. Seen from outside the US in Europe, and Asia, other parts of the world there was a real sense that democracy was facing a critical time in the US. Mr. Biden's speech about the struggle for the soul of America is very real considering that the Republican party is today for the most part pro-Trump and lessons learned from the traumatic experience of 2020 are sometimes set aside. There were real issues with the future of democracy during the transfer of power to Mr. Biden in 2020, and the future of America's leadership in the world as the place where the Declaration of Independence inspires the whole world for 200 years, which cannot be ignored and will always be remembered, as much in America as in the world to which offers hope and acts as a beacon. ...

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Across Africa the situation is worsening for food security following the pandemic. More people are likely to die from food insecurity than from the pandemic. A succession of crises including drought, a locust swarm moving over vast parts east Africa into South Asia, and tons of crops rotting in the field after the lockdowns, are making the situation worse. With the lockdowns many informal economy workers are not able to earn a living, with no safety net this means they are going without food and slipping deeper into poverty. Remittances from overseas supported many people in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this has dropped by about 20-30%. As a result the World Food Program estimated in April that 265 million people, double that in 2019 will face world hunger- 3 in every 100 in the world. About 821 million will face food insecurity. The world food system is fragile with just none plant species accounting for two thirds the global crop, with threats of soil erosion, rising temperatures, extreme weather and disease. Wars, high inflation, political struggles, and conflicts make things worse. The hope comes from the fact that this time the largest countries China and India are emerging in 2020 very different from what they faced for most of the nineteenth century, with recurring famines and lack of access to food supplies. India now even allows farmers to export food to buyers in other countries directly. Getting money into the hands of farmers and people in food insecurity areas is one way for them to access existing food supplies all over the world. ...

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U.S. Fed chairwoman Yellen moves cautiously to raise rates in December 2015. The Fed raises the benchmark federal funds rate-its overnight lending rate- from near zero to between 0.25% and 0.5%. Yellen emphasized her cautious approach by saying "we have very low rates and we have made a very small move." This follows seven years of near zero rates after the QE program for monetary easing under Ben Bernanke, the previous chairman, following the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed plans to raise rates gradually and slowly over 3 years. With oil prices falling below $35 the prospect that inflation may fall well below the 2% target could put off further plans to raise rates. Yellen said the Fed would "monitor inflation very carefully," and if it remained at unexpectedly low levels the Fed would reconsider its outlook and respond with "appropriate policy."

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Release of 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves by 27 countries in June 2011. This helps make up for oil production lost in Libya.

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Smaller companies are being squeezed by rapidly escalating costs as costs are going up as fast as oil prices, and face tighter emissions rules in Alberta's oil sands projects. Some projects now cost 2 to 3 times the original projections and there is a severe labor shortage. Even the big players will find it difficult and expensive. To meet the stringent emissions rules, as Prime Minister Harper signs on to new international greenhouse emissions targets, Shell may have to use a technology that captures CO2 from the plants that process the oil sands and store the gas underground. This costs $120 a ton, and would cost Shell upwards of $2 billion a year just to capture and store the CO2, for the 15-20 million tons of CO2 that would be emitted when it increases production to 770,000 barrels a day. The cleanup from oil sands processing is costly because processing is very pollution intensive. Production of one barrel from these oil sands is 3 times more polluting than producing conventional oil. Synenco Energy, which had a project in partnership with China's Sinopec for mining and processing the oil sands called Northern Lights for $10.8 billion, called off the project last year because of all these hurdles, slashed its work force, and decided it may sell the company. Currently 1.1 million barrels a day come from the Alberta oil sands. 2020 output was expected to rise to 4.3 million barrels a day. But now this looks too optimistic. CAPP forecests 3.8 million barrels a day, but even this may be on the high side. ...

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Iranian president Ahmadinejad's populist agenda covers- 1. Social goals: A $4 billion national school renovation program. Raised salaries for workers in Iran's government run companies and raised minimum wage 50%. Has plans to give shares in government controlled companies to the poor and working classes. Iran subsidizes basic staples and gasoline. These subsidies existed before Ahmadinejad. Gasoline costs 40 cents a gallon. Against these social goals are committments by Iran as part of its plan to join the WTO, which includes limiting the subsidy on gasoline to only a certain number of gallons per user. 2. Economic costs of the programs. Dipping into the Oil Stabilization Fund to finance subsidies. Iran imports about half of its gasoline as it lacks enough oil refineries to supply itself. This means as gasoline prices go up Iran has to dip into the stabilization fund to finance subsidies. Inflation is running at 15%. Will oil spending fuel inflation further is a looming question. In 2005 $7.7 billion was taken out of the Oil Stabilization Fund to fund subsidies for wheat, gasoline and other items. 3. Ahmadinejad's election promise was "to put the oil revenue on the dinner table of every Iranian." 4. After the runup in oil prices Iran now generates $49 billion from oil and natural gas. This is twice the amount compared to four years ago....

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Saudi Oil minister Ali Naimi increased his previous estimate for oil prices needed to balance the needs of producers and consumers. His new estimate is $90, up from the previous estimate of $80. This will give upward momentum to oil prices. The fall in the price of the dollar is affecting OPEC countries, including Libya, Algeria and Venezuela. These countries are looking for a price of $100.

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BP took a writedown of $5 billion for the second quarter of 2012, for some U.S. refineries, a suspended Alaska oil project and shale gas resources. Of this $2.68 billion was for the U.S. refining business. And $1.50 billion was for the suspension of the Liberty oil project in Alaska because of higher costs. BP's clean replacement cost profit was $3.69 billion, a decline of 35% from the $5.71 billion the prior year. BP's writedown of shale gas assets was because of very low natural gas prices, a situation faced also by Shell and Exxon. Total oil and gas production declined by 7.4% to 2.275 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. The extended maintenance program and major repair and improvement work after the 2011 oil spill led to increased costs and lower production in the North Sea, Angola, and the Gulf of Mexico.

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Norway's oil and gas industry companies like Statoil buried carbon dioxide deep in the seabed for natural gas extracted offshore. Sttoil's carbon dioxide emissions per ton of oil and gas extracted is 39% of the industry average as a result of technology and tax saving measures after Norway enacted laws taxing at the rate of $65 per ton of carbon emitted by the oil and gas industry. But overall because of the growth in Norway, more offshore production of oil and gas, and use in the transportation sector, Norway's emissions have gone up by 15% compared to 1991, when Norway was the first to put a tax on carbon dioxide emissions.

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The share price performance as measured by price/earnings multiple of Total, BP, Eni and other European oil companies lag behind Exxon, Chevron and other American oil companies by as much as 26%, because of the effects of the eurozone crisis. Yet the annual return on average capital is about the same 12% for these companies for 2002-2011 accoding to data from Deutsche Bank, with the exception of BP's oil spill disaster results. And Total has a large exploration portfolio in many countries.

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Difficulties facing the recovering airline industry as the price of oil continues its increase. Goldman Sach's Group raised its forecast from $68 per barrel in 2007 and 2008 to $80 in 2007 and $90 in 2008. Airlines have already taken a lot of the costcutting steps from flying lighter more fuel efficient planes to smaller steps like reducing the weight of beverage carts and taxiing on the runway with one engine and so on. But their forecasting and business plan estimates of oil costs have been far off the mark and hedging has been inadequate. Lasty year as per the ATA, Airline Transport Association, 42% of the consumption on average was hedged at $60 per barrel, this year 2007 only 31% of fuel consumption on average has been hedged at $62 per barrel. To give some idea of how far off the mark, United's business plan used $50 per barrel through 2010, and Delta used $65 in its business plan for 2007. Expect more fare increases and capacity reductions if this price trend for oil continues. ...

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NYT looks at the movies "Oppenheimer" and "The Day after Trinity." Christopher Nolan's film about the scientist who spearheaded the development of the atomic bomb was at theaters July 21. Else's documentary "The Day after Trinity," was made in 1981 and shown again by the Criterion Channel without a subscription to a new generation of viewers to keep alive its message and its relevance. The war in Eastern Europe and nuclear threats have created a surging interest in how the world entered a new era after Hiroshima. Else, now a professor at UC Berkeley, says this story needs to be told to a new generation, and by a new group of storytellers. It also shows the paradox of a thoughtful soul in Oppenheimer who never intended for his invention to be used and the savage nature of this creation.

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India imports 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia. It now faces the need to address the problem this has created for Germany and US seeking an end to Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Without other leverage DJT and indirectly Germany are putting pressure on India to shift these purchases to the US and cut India's $46 billion deficit with the US.  India needs to accept that the reprieve it got during the covid years to import from Russia to help it control inflation at home would at some time come under increasing pressure from the US. That time may be now as DJT and Merz see this as the only few areas of leverage they have to get Russia to reconsider its position for settling the Ukraine war entirely on its terms. Just as in the India Pakistan war the current talk of nuclear escalation resulting from the Ukraine war has to be a major consideration for US, EU, Russia, China and India, all the world's leaders, to step back and see ways to work for an overall interest than in time to come will help these nations national interests.  It will require brave moves from India, China, the US and Russia. Yet this is the new course that alone can bring a return to a world focused on modernization and improving the lives of the people of these nations. ...

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Mohammed bin Salman, 31 years old, is made the successor to his father King Salman. Prince Nayef, 57, the crown prince is removed from this position. Nayef was Interior Minister. After the current king assumed office in Jan. 2015, he promoted his son to the position of defence minister, overseeing the state oil company and overseeing economic affairs. He put together a plan Saudi Vision 2030, and the kingdom has taken a larger role in international affairs under his leadership as the U.S. under the Obama administration moved away from the Saudi policies in Bahrain, Egypt, and Yemen. Under Salman the Saudi kingdom has moved to confront Iran in Syria and Yemen supporting opposite sides in the conflict, and with Saudi aircraft bombing targets in Yemen.  Recap- for more depth see groups and links and search. In international affairs the Saudis grew restive as the Obama administration failed to setup a no fly zone in Syria to protect its Sunni population. Following the chemical weapons attacks in Syria the lack of a U.S. response led to the Saudis turning down a Security Council seat.  Early confrontation occurred in Bahrain with a Shiite population and Sunni government. The Saudis then intervened to support Sissi in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhood government as the liberals drifted away from the Brotherhood. With Iranian and Russian support for the Syrian government in Damascus against rebels, the Saudis began to use oil policy leading to an effort to let oil prices fall by loosening production limits, believing it would hurt their rivals even more. This hurt Iran, Russia and Saudis, each in a different way. Some of the roots of the Russian involvement in Syria are also related to this. Russia responded to the oil price drop by relying less on exports, and letting devaluations help the Russian economy become more self sufficient. Iran by working to get a deal with the Obama administration on nuclear development to get out of the sanctions regime that hurt Iran's economy. The Saudis cut some subsidies and Prince Salman led the effort for an initial public offering for Saudi state oil company Aramco. As time progressed the Arab Spring with protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and even before that in Iran for greater freedom, morphed into a sectarian struggle between Shiites and Sunnis. The roots of Islamic State are in the unrest in Mosul, Iraq's largest city, with the Shiite government of a pro-Shiite prime minister, leading to the fall of the city to the militants. He was replaced by the current prime minister Abadi to accomodate U.S. insistence on keeping out sectarian sentiment. This is why the problem is so intractable. Desire for freedom plays a role, but religion also plays a role, not only that but there are two versions of Islam in the region.  Remember Gandhi's admonition- "an eye for an eye that makes the whole world blind," as India struggled to set up a democracy in the South Asian region, after the British left.         ...

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The increasing use of millet grains to substitute for wheat and rice is good for India as it copes with climate change. Millet grains are more resilient in the current heat waves that will continue for some time. Millet grains are also better from a nutritional perspective. The entire chain, planting season timing, irrigation and fertilization of crops, need to be researched and the research used to prepare for climate change with new agricultural practices, say experts. Nutri cereals such as jowar, raagi, bajra, have the physiology to be resilient and have lower water demands, higher tolerance for coarse soils and heat, says a professor of ecology at Columbia University. The UN has declared 2023 as the Year of Millets and PM Modi has also launched a campaign for greater use of Millet grains. Millet grains have a high level of iron, fiber and certain vitamins.  With obesity increasing in all countries  after the world moved away from these Millet grains and other ancient grains the time has come for a return to the more nutritious grains of the past. Only one or two generations ago in our families history these Millet grains and ancient grains were used widely resulting in better health and fewer of todays medical conditions. ...