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This WSJ editorial says Donald Trump's first foreign policy speech is full of contradictions. Mr. Trump says foreign policy should be "unpredictable" yet this also means says the WSJ, that the country should trust his instincts, and everybody else a loser- "I'm the only one-believe me, I know them all- I'm the only one who knows how to fix it." It says the speech gets an "Incomplete" at Trump University. It criticizes Obama, but in failing to stand up for peace through strength that marked the post war peace since 1945, WSJ says that more than people realize Mr. Trump is a continuation of Mr. Obama's policies of withdrawing from global engagement that has ensured that peace. Trade wars with China, Mexico and Japan could lead to a world recession. Though much needs to be done to ensure trade is fair to U.S. workers and business, Trump has no clearly stated path to do this, instead relying on brinksmanship that could end up in trade wars.

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This NYT editorial describes the use of Mr. Manafort telling the Republican National Committee that Trump was only "playing a part," as simply a Pygmalion project like that of Mr. Higgins. It says on Mr. Trump's comments about Mexicans and Muslims- Mr. Trump describes as toned down now, but something he has not denied. This makes him unfit for the presidency, says NYT.

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Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT. ...

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South Korea's economy contracts 0.1 % in the first quarter of 2025 because of political unrest and Trump tariffs.

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Election expert Karl Rove from the Republican Party goes over the math for the nomination for upcoming Republican primaries in New York, followed by primaries in Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. He says the anti-Trump movement would still be in the lead at the end of these primaries. His figures are that Trump stands at 743 delegates on April 7, 2016, citing the Associated Press, and the non-Trump delegates at 897, ahead by 154 delegates. In New York primary of April 19 only 14 of the state's 95 delegates go to the winner, the rest are given three for each of 27 congressional districts. two to the winner and one for the second place finisher as long as the winner is less than 50% and the second place candidate has 20%. Delaware has 16 winner take all delegates, Connecticut and Maryland have 28 and 38 winner take all by congressional district, Rhode Island 19 proportionally. Interestingly Pennsylvania is cited by Rove as having only 14 statewide winner take all delegates, with 54 officially unbound congressional district delegates, contrary to popular impression that it is winner take all state wide. The elections in South and North Dakota, and Nebraska, give Cruz some of the delegate offset to control the gap in delegates between him and Trump created in the northeastern states. A factor in the race is also the change in the Cruz campaign made for Wisconsin where Cruz was able to win by 14 percentage points by expanding his message to Jobs, Opportunity and Growth from the social conservatism message that did not counter the Trump message to conservative and working class voters on the economy and trade. Another factor is women's vote trending away from Trump. ...

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The divisions in the Republican Party as Trump wins in Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and Cruz wins in Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, in the March 1, 2016 Republican primaries.

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Nelson Schwartz of the NYT looks at the town of Neenah, Wisconsin, a year after the election in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania with 80,000 votes swinging the other way from blue to red handing the election to Mr. Trump. The pressures are still there with cheaper imports, paper mills about to close, and workers still struggling to keep the same lifestyle as their parents. Even with low unemployment of about 3% in Wisconsin, with the slow increase in wages and corporate pressures for profits, trade wars, the sense is that the problems of the American middle class are still just as deep.

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Education Department to delay forced collection on student loans starting Jan 2026. Tax refunds would not be used towards repayment of student loans. The thinking is that the student loan payment system is so much in need of overhaul that student borrowers should not have to suffer from high cost of living on smaller wages. 

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This NYT report on the Trump campaign in Iowa shows serious shortcomings- a failure to organize a grassroots effort and setup the organization to get people to the voting booth. This is particularly needed for Trump's base of people without a college degree and under 45 years of age, as supporters most likely to vote are evangelicals, those with a college degree and over 45 years. Evangelicals form a base of support for Ted Cruz who has also organized the best effort of all candidates among evangelicals.

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China's Xi Jinping meets leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin, a northeastern coastal city near Beijing. He will meet Putin and Indian prime minister Modi. This is Modi's first visit to China in 7 years. A parade in Beijing will mark the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II with attendance of Putin with Xi. On May 9 2025 Xi attended the parade in Moscow on the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II. 

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IEA shows China in 2030 with 54% of mining and 77% of refining for rare earth minerals- a near monopoly. It is this monopoly that China is now using to negotiate with the US. Rare earth minerals are needed for many advanced technology products and renewable energy. This move by China to strictly restrict access to rare earth was not anticipated by US negotiators. US negotiatons with China relate to China's access to technologies, to the US market, and on the subject of fentanyl coming in from China to Mexico and illegally brought into the US. 

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The president's Council of Economic Advisors puts out a report on the homeless in California that makes points that both sides, liberals and Trump supporters can agree on. It says California has 12% of the population of the U.S. and half the unsheltered homeless in the country. The blame for the housing situation in the state is placed on "not-near-me" residents that want to prevent housing being built near them by supporting strict environmental and zoning restrictions. Residents selfishness looking at only their own interests and keeping out newcomers is seen as the problem behind the lack of new housing units. The tech industry pushing up housing prices has further aggravated the availability of affordable housing leading to a worsening of access to decent housing in the state.

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Donald Trump proposes a ban on Muslims entering the U.S. until U.S. authorites have figured out what is happening following the San Bernardino terrorist attack. A poll by PPP polling firm cited in The Washington Post, shows 30% of Republicans thinking Islam should not be legal in the U.S. and 21% not sure, showing how Trump is appealing to white working class Americans and their fears. Experts say this is similiar to a movement in the 1850's which was anti-Catholic, except that at the time there was not the media attention and the presidential elections season running for a year, so that this was happening more at the local level.

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There are differences between the governors of 10 worst hit states and the president of the U.S. on when to reopen the economy. The seven on the East Coast including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and three on the West Coast including California and Washington, all but one have Democrat governors and want to wait beyond May 1, till it is believed to be safe to reopen.190,000 of the 592,000 infected cases and over 10,000 of 25,000 cases of deaths are from New York alone. This is as though a third of the problem is in one state. The feeling in New York is that it should be the last to reopen, other states can go first in the middle of the country. The position in the U.S. Constitution is for states to maintain public order and safety. This was the basis of the president's position to work with the governors and continues to be the case, though there is pressure from economic advisers to the president to reopen earlier balanced by the opinion of health experts around the president.  Some states are taking action to reopen because the virus has not severely affected these states. President Trump says it is for governors to decide what is best for each state in consultation with the federal government. The U.S. government would step in if a state is taking risky action with the coronavirus. On the issue of whether the president could have acted quickly in February following his decision to stop flights from China and set up quarantines in January, the BBC has this to say. Dr. Fauci, the president's respected health expert was one of many public officials who did not see the magnitude of the crisis evolving with lack of good information from China. BBC North America Editor Jon Sopel cites Dr. Fauci's comments on February 13- that the coronavirus danger is "just miniscule" compared with the "real and present danger" of flu. As it happened the president acted alone in his sense of the danger from the outbreak in China through incoming flights and not relying on others. Here is what the situation of each country on reopening is- India -  has extended the lockdown to May 3. France - has extended the lockdown till May 11. U.S. - has extended the lockdown to May 1. States are taking the responsibility. UK - continues lockdown restrictions till May. The French president Macron had a simple answer to the question " when will we be able to get back to a normal, prior life?" Macron said "Quite frankly, humbly, I have no definitive answer to that." Some nurseries and schools will reopen May 11. Not restaurants, hotels, museums and theaters. By May 11 France will be able to test and quarantine anyone with symptoms and general public masks will be available to all. This is what Dr. Fauci in the U.S. also wants to see before being able to reopen, that testing and tracing, isolating, procedures be efficient and reliable. ...