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Brexit and Scotland's referendum both have similar consequences economically for Britain and Scotland. This hurts both countries in unwinding relationships built over many years, unwinding 44 year membership for Britain, and 310 year union for Scotland. Britain exports to EU are 45% of total exports, and for Scotland the number is 63% for exports to the rest of the UK.  Scots benefit about 1200 British pounds more for average citizen than a average citizen of UK, and pay 400 pounds less to the government. Scotland would start with a 90% debt to GDP ratio if it takes a proportionate share of UK government debt from the beginning of independence. Fidler correctly points out the economic risks to Britain and Scotland which are being ignored or not fully taken into account by politicians.

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The new coronavirus test for antibody detects antibodies Immunoglobulin G and M. It is designed for people with symptoms and is a quick test used in China, and to be deployed in Britain. The FDA approved the first antibody test for coronavirus developed by Cellex. Immunoglobulin M is made a few days after infection. Immunoglobulin G is made later and is designed by nature in the human body to neutralize the invading virus. The test gives a positive or negative answer whether these antibodies are present to overcome the virus. Unlike the swab test for the nose this test takes only a pin prick and is quick with quick results. For asymptomatic people the swab test is needed as it detects the material in the nose which carries the virus itself.

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Having 12 million human beings caught in a net of fear and apprehension, living life in the shadows, even in abad economy, no, especially in a bad economy, makes no sense, says the NYT editorial. These immigrants can become productive citizens, some of the most hard working who did the backbreaking work in factories and construction, who send money to keep families in Mexico and other parts of Latin Ameica from falling into poverty. In doing so and working on the books instead of off the books, they earn more, spend more, pay more taxes. and have the ability to ensure that there are fewer abuses in the workplace. This way they also get better education for themseves to improve job prospects, and better education for their children who can become part of the next generation of productive citizens. It also clears the path for focus on how to handle better border enforcement focussing resources on fighting crime, drugs, violence, and have a future flow of workers that is in line with the economy's needs. It createss decent workplaces, where people's workplace rights are not violated by unscruplous employers. In this case the fair thing to do, is also the most beneficial thing to do in the larger sense for the economy. In this context the agreement of labor unions, the AFL-CIO and the Change to Win (a rival federation that includes auto service employees, Teamsters and carpenters), to agree that an independent national commission would figure out the size of temporary workers depending on the needs of the economy, higher if it was growing, lower if it wasn't, basing it on conditions in the labor markets, is a good things says NYT. It takes necessary courage for unions, Obama to do the needed fight to protect these future citizens and build a better America with their help, rather than wish the impossible of putting them all on the boat back. ...

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President Biden called for corporations to pay their fair share of taxes so that investments can be made in vital needs of the nation-US infrastructure, education and health, transport, public services. The NYT looks at companies where profits are shifted overseas to reduce taxes. In this case NYT looks into an investigation into shifting of profits to a Swiss subsidiary to avoid billions of dollars in income taxes. 

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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This Journal editorial says Romney is cautious and conservative in his politics, and finds his ideas for a value added tax problematic. It sees the need for Ron Paul's supporters in a successful Republican campaign in 2012 and critical for governing in 2013, because of Paul's genuine desire for change to the status quo. Of Santorum the Journal says there is need to broaden the economic message beyond reducing taxes for manufacturing companies, and going beyond the moral fervor to show how he would revive the U.S. economy and jobs growth.

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Lahart says adjusting for inflation the DJIA average in early March 2013 would be about 12,900 instead of 14,254, much less than it was in Oct 9, 2007 peak. If dividends are reinvested the Dow would be at 16,600. With inflation and dividends taken together the Dow would be around 15,000. Lahart does not cite his source. Browning in a separate piece says the DJIA adjusted for dividends, inflation and taxes, according to Bespoke Investment calculations is still below the 2000 level in 1994 dollars, and provides a different view.

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Bret Stephens talks with Shiite Imam Mohsen Quadivar, who was a student of Hossein-Ali Montazeri, and a seminarian at Qom, Iran. He now teaches at Duke. Kadivar is the author of a three part work of political philosophy titled "The Theories of the State in Shiite Jurisprudence," which questions Khomeini's idea of vilayat e-Faqih, or principle for a supreme leader with near dictatorial powers. Nothing in this principle he says is intuitively obvious or necessary for religion. It is he says not a part of Shiite general principles, and by near consensus of the Shiite Ulama, a minor jurisprudential hypothesis. He says there are two interpretations of Islam: the aggressive Islam of Ahamadinejad or the mercy Islam of Moussavi. Kadivar points out that 2 of Iran's 4 major seminaries have refused to endorse Ahmadinejad's victory. There is here a search and a struggle for the true soul of Islam that goes beyond Iran, to Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The U.S., India, Pakistan and the Middle Eastern nations are having to walk carefully through a period where a search and a struggle for this true soul is taking place. Alahu akbar now takes on a different meaning....

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Indian foreign minister Jaishankar tells a conference in Begaluru that what happens outside India affects each and every Indian. Inflation with prices of fertilizer, foodgrains and oil are affected by the war in Ukraine, coronavirus started in Wuhan, China, the incursions since 2020 in the Himalayas were started at our borders by China and began with its invasion of Tibet, what is happening on the border in Kashmir with crossborder terrorism happens with China's support of Pakistan.  Gaining access to pools of US and European capital and technology will involve action taken by foreign investors from outside India's borders in lands far away. This will affect the infrastructure and the speed and scale of India's industrialization and modernization, and will affect every Indian. It will also help India compete with other industrialized countries including China, and emerge as a leader of the Free World along with US and European Union. The world is where everything takes place and India's place is in the Free World. ...

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A You.Gov poll taken for The Times in the last 5 days says 9 out of 10 Tory voters have decided who they will vote for as ballot papers went out this week. And 60% will vote for Liz Truss who has widened her lead to 34 points over Rishi Sunak. Tory party voters for the leadership by a majority or 53% say Boris Johnson should not have resigned. Only 41% say Boris Johnson should resign. Mr. Johnson supported Liz Truss, as do most of the cabinet.

When asked who can get Tories a majority in the next election Truss at 39% has a 20 percentage point lead over Sunak. From this it appears that if Tories themselves and not the cabinet had decided Boris Johnson would still be prime minister, and Liz Truss takes on the premiers role with the same style and spirit of Brexit that Johnson brought to the role and would consider Mr. Johnson as part of the close advisers.

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The entire area from the east coast of Africa to the west coast of the US in Pacific is now being covered as the Indo-Pacific region with the US, India, Australia and other nations committed to keeping the international rule of law and freedom of navigation.German Air Force takes part in a joint military exercize of 17 countries for Indo-Pacific in Darwin, Australia. The focus was on rapid deployment. The German Bundeswehr transfer of fighter jets and supply planes in mid-August Rapid Pacific 2022 was done within 24 hours for 6 Eurojets fighter jets, four transport aircraft, and 3 air to air fueling tankers, with 100 tons of material. The exercize from Aug 19 to September 8 was for 2500 personnel and 100 aircraft from all over the world called Pitch Black in Australia's Northern Territory. Next year Gemany plans to have its army participate in Australian exercize. An entire fleet unit is being set for German navy to return to the Pacific waters.  ...

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Unintended effects of Title 42 law introduced by president Trump which quickly returns migrants crossing the US border with Mexico leading to repeated crossings by the same persons. This leads to a more complicated picture at the border.  About 2 million will have attempted to cross the southern border in 2022 fiscal year. About 22% of crossings involve repeat border crossers.Two thirds of the 182,000 migrants crossing in July 2022 were single individuals. The pandemic hit Mexico and Central America hard and the quicker economic rebound in the US is leading to a surge in migrants looking for work. In addition to Central America asylum seekers come from Cuba and Venezuela with repressive action by regimes. Mexico only takes some of these migrants back. There is also a flow of illegal drugs across the border from Mexico which continues to this day even after the Trump Wall at the border, as most of it comes through official entry points. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have taken action of different kinds yet the problem remains unresolved. ...

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To president Joe Biden the Democrats instincts of FDR and Truman, with the focus on building better lives for workers and families, comes naturally. Biden takes the Democratic Party back to what it was in the 1930's to the 1960's. Just today the Labor Department showed 336,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 3.8% for 2 years, 32 months of jobs growth. Brooks offers a clue on how this is happening- president Biden has aggressively directed American capital and resources to where it is needed most, in counties red or blue where economic growth has suffered in the past. Yet 57% of people polled cited by Brooks say the economy is in poor shape. There are another 14 months to go and the economy will get even stronger with the capital allocation and Biden economic policies of Build Better and America First. Workers and families will see real and tangible improvements in their lives in 2024.

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WHite children born in 1992 fared worse in income levels than white children born in 1978. The reverse is true for black children- the income gap narrowing for black children born after 1992 and widening for white children born after 1992. In this unusual twist lies some of the angst about social divisions in America in 2024 where income mobility is a major issue. The Biden administration has achieved a lot with bipartisan legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, cancelling student loan debt or reducing it, creating 16 million jobs, bringing supply chain disruption inflation down from 9% to 3%, and yet more action is needed. Inflation in housing that for 25% of apartment renters takes 50% of household income is a challenge. Biden proposed a 5% cap on rent raises, Harris proposed capping rent payment at 30% of household income and  government aid for amounts above 30%. By contrast Trump program promises little to help with housing costs, and economic policy is limited to tax cuts heavily skewed to wealthier households. ...

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Kamala Harris says she will tackle immigration head-on at the Arizona rally August 10, 2024. She said she would Pass the Lankford- Biden Immigration Bill and sign it into law. It is the bill that passed the Senate and was given no chance in the House because of it being opposed by Trump for use as an election issue.

Harris said-

“I was attorney general of a border state. I went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and the human traffickers. I prosecuted them in case after case and I won, so I know what I’m talking about.”

“He talks a big game about border security but he does not walk the walk."

“We know our immigration system is broken and we know what it takes to fix it: comprehensive reform. That includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship,” 

 

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Biden joins Harris at an event in Largo, Maryland on August 15 2024, the first time president Biden joins Harris for a rally after Harris takes on the role of nominee. Biden is sort of on this ticket as the nominee Harris's mentor and colleague. Harris runs on Biden's achievements and the president will forever be part of the Harris team with experience to get important legislation through Congress in the years ahead. At the rally Biden and Harris focus on cost of living and how Medicare now brings down prices of out of control pharmaceuticals. President Biden is the first president to restore Medicare's right and obligation to the American people to negotiate fair prices for pharmaceuticals. This right and obligation was stripped from Medicare by the younger president Bush in one of the worst decisions of a Republican president since World War II, causing terrible hardship from corporate greed to hard working American families. 

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Matt Garman, head of AI and Cloud Services at Amazon talks to Emma Tucker of the WSJ. Garman says Amazon was not slow, just being deliberate and thinking it through rather than coming up with something quickly as Microsoft had done with ChatGPT. He sees the need for regulation, only that it not create a situation where others including China go ahead and the US falls behind. This means that the US needs to coordinate AI rules with other countries including China, India, Russia, for comprehensive solutions on how AI is to be managed to work towards good.

On a five day week vs remote work Garman says Amazon takes the view that the creative work can best be done with humans interacting at the office. It sees this as essential for good work. On the 3 day week with 2 for remote work, the only problem he says is that everyone picks different 3 days and this leads to loss of human interaction at work.

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Overworking in investment banking has become a serious issue with serious effects on health. It is the focus of a WSJ exclusive report on the casualties coming out of an erratic approach to worklife and health. WSJ says it has become a norm to ignore policies set banks a decade ago after similar death and toxic work situations. Bosses it says make impossible and unreasonable demands and younger workers in deference to this are put in a dangerous situation. All this for $200,000 in entry level positions- now Dimon CEO of Chase JP Morgan asks what can we learn from this, saying there are many people at Chase "who give a damn about the human beings at work in this company." The results delivered are also not what is good for the country. Much of the capital allocation that takes place though investment banking leads to enormous waste and poor investment returns. And this is happening as needed funding for infrastructure and other projects for education health and public services remain unaddressed. ...

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The structure of the deal that is coming up for a vote in Congress on August 1st, a day before the August 2 deadline. A deal put together mainly by Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell and Vice President Biden after other deals failed. It gives the government $400 billion immediately and another $500 billion in the fall for raising the debt ceiling. Another 1.2 trillion will be added in 2012. The entire burden for raising it falls on Obama. Obama will be able to get the debt ceiling raised without another long struggle before 2012 elections. On spending cuts- agency spending will be cut by $900 billion over the next 10 years. A new legislative committe will be set up to come up with $1.2 trillion in additional savings by the end of 2012. The mechanism that would force the committe to act or make sure spending cuts were taken if the committee failed, was set up as one in which the trigger is to force automatic across the board cuts. The automatic across the board cuts would be for $1.2 trillion to agency budgets for the next 10 years, and split this half and half between domestic programs and defence. Programs aiding the poor including Medicaid and Social Security would be exempted, but Medicare payments to providers could be touched. No new taxes are part of this deal....

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Hinrichs takes position as head of Ford Asia Pacific and Africa operations. Prior to this he worked for GM for 10 uears and with aprivate equity firm in Chicago with automotive supplier operations.

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As Katya Adler of BBC explains here Catalonia's crisis is less about independence than about populism. Catalonia is already one of the most autonomous regions in Spain. Catalans want to be able to choose their future with dignity, yet on independence opinion is divided in Catalonia. Prime Minister Rajoy has not handled the crisis well says Adler, when he had many things in his favor including EU support and support under the Constitution. Police action and the negative coverage have hurt Spain. Adler also points out that Rajoy and Puigdemont may be doing this for political purposes to increase their support. Rajoy's government failed to win support for the 2018 budget as it is a minority government with thin support in parliament. Puigdemont may also have overreacted and called the referendum  without considering this carefully. and having a realistic plan. Both politicians are criticized for corruption in their parties. Catalonia wants to see more investment and revenues sent back to its region from taxes sent to the federal government making financial issues prominent more than grievances about use of Catalan language. ...

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With the drop in Brent crude to $67.53 on Nov. 28, 2014, for a drop of 13% for the week, the ruble takes a further hit. The ruble declined to 52.67 to the dollar.

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Jens Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway, takes over from Anders Rasmussen of Denmark as head of the NATO defense organization. As prime minister Stoltenberg actively contributed to the NATO effort in Libya.

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NATO takes on a new role with the Quad countries as it sees China's growing assertiveness as a "systemic challenge to the rules based international order and to matters relating to alliance security." Biden says he wants to create international blocs of democratic nations.

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The Gulf States sovereign funds lose value with Abu Dhabi and Kuwait's funds losing a third of their value. Prince Alwaleed 's Kingdom Holding loses $7.92 billion. and business confidence index takes a big hit.