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White drives a Chrysler 300 sedan diesel powered and made for European use, fast enough to go past speed limit but still gives an average of 28 miles in city and highway driving. The EPA rating for this car is 22 miles per gallon in its US V-6 model, so the Chrysler CRD 300 made for Europe has a 27% fuel efficiency advantage over its American counterpart. White borrowed it from a friend who was showing European diesel technology in the U.S. Cleaner diesel technology is spotlighted in this test drive. Also attention is drawn to fuel availability. This fall oil companies will be required to supply Americans at the gas pump with low sulfur diesel fuels on which the diesel cars with the clean diesel technology run, for cars like the Chrysler CRD 300. Automakers from Japan, Europe and the US are looking to transfer this technology developed for Europe to the US, with some improvements to meet American environmental standards, especially in lare sedans, SUV's and pickups. The statistics for US diesel use on the road are as follows: 1. About 3-4% of light vehicles in the US run on diesel. White quotes industry executives as comfortable with a JD Power estimate of diesel use by 2010-2012, or about 6-8 year horizon of 10% of all passenger vehicles. 2. John Moulton, president of the powertrain division of Robert Bosch Gmbh, forecast diesel use by 15% of the passenger vehicles in the U.S. by 2015. Use in Europe is about 50% by comparison. 3. Usage of diesel will be highest in the bigger cars and vehicles . This is where the 20-30% savings in fuel cost would be substantial enough to cover the $2000-$6000 additional cost for the diesel powered vehicles using the latest clean diesel technology. DaimlerChrysler is already moving forward with coming up with versions of the diesel models used in Europe for the American market. VW currently is the leader in the American market. About 20% of VW's sold in April 2006 use diesel. This is going up every year 12% in 2004, 14% in 2005. In 2008 VW will have all its mainstream models available in all 50 states in diesel versions. ...

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Gaza Palestine Peace deal by DJT where all hostages are exchanged for Israel stopping war in Gaza and pulling back to one half of Gaza October 14 2025. Hamas supporters Turkey and Qatar were involved. The talks were held in Sharm-al-Sheikh seaside resort in Egypt and final talks at the villa of Gen. Rashad Intelligence Chief of Egypt. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff for the US got Israel's participation. For Israel the fatigue from the long war would give it a respite. It was achieved by not getting into the smaller details so the Israeli withdrawal from all of Gaza. Israel said it will withdraw from half of Gaza and establish its presence in the other half of Gaza as Israel tries to figure out a way to ensure its security and end threats from Gaza Palestinian area. For the world community including the US and European leaders in Egypt including Britain, Spain, Germany, and other leaders this was an opportunity to remove divisions in their countries on the issue of Palestine as the continuation of the war had led to hunger and flattened most of Gaza's buildings. The issues of Palestine and Israel's right to exist without wars and threats, of new settlements, once again are left for another day as the oil rich kingdoms of the Middle East and the Arab countries, US, Israel and Europe fail to open a new chapter for Israel and for Palestine. Most importantly the Palestinian and Israeli leaders exercizing the foresight to bring peace in the ways that have ended strife over territory and control in places like the Irish Republic, Northern Ireland and Britain which have been in conflict from the year 1500. It is striking how little was gained from initial events leading to the war and how little the war had to do with the problems of illegal migration, of cost of living, of infrastructure neglect facing the US, Europe. It is certain that the peace deal will now allow the focus on the problems facing the US and Europe, removing the distraction of this sudden flareup of conflict that never should have happened.  ...

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Shiller points out that statistical models used by economists can't quantify the risk of a double-dip recession. Confidence indexes show gradual trends so they too are poor at picking up the dangers inherent in the increasing levels of uncertainty and the increasing vulnerability of confidence in the economy. The potential of sudden events in derailing confidence is great. He cites the 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market on May 6, as one example. And the potential of the BP oil spill creating havoc for the Gulf economy is another such event. Shiller says his definition of a douple dip recession looks at the long term, and doesn't see the short term as a way to correctly read the economic situation. He sees a douple dip recession as a rise in unemployment to high levels, and becomes sticky after that, only nudged down insignificantly. Before unemployment can be brought down a second recession occurs, and there could be years in between. Shiller's Buy-on-Dips stock Market Confidence Index prepared since 1989 shows a steady decline in individual investor confidence since 2009....

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This is a big desicion by the Obama administration, and has global implications for the amount of oil consumed and the emissions discharged. The Obama administration will introduce one national standard for automile emissions and mileage standards, replacing the patchwork of standards and skipping over the challenges to the California standards by using those standards to set the national rules. The rules take effect in 2012. It will create a new national standard for a car and light truck fleet in the USA, that is 40% cleaner and more fuel efficient by 2016 than it is now, with a new average of 35.5 miles per gallon. The current national standard is 25 miles per gallon, and this standard has fallen way behind the Japanese and the Europeans. The Europeans went through their battles for fuel efficiency a few years ago with auto industry resistance, and this was finally settled with tougher standards, giving the European industry advantages in technology over the Americans. The American car industry stalled higher standards, and what standards were passed were whittled down by heavy lobbying in Congress. As a result a battle raged between those interested in conservation and the environment and the Detroit car industry, especially in a deteriorating global environment for this type of prolific oil consumption on American highways. This lack of foresight on the part of Detroit carmakers, and their management, accelerated their financial collapse in 2008 and 2009, as large car and truck sales collapsed. That this tough new standard of 40% improvement in 2016, would in fact not have been possible without this fiinancial collapse and turning to the government for a bailout - with the entire board of General Motors being replaced- is one of the ironies of this situation. This decision will almost certainly accelerate the development of smaller models, and bring the kind of attention to them that will give them the quality and features and comfort to make them command higher prices and become profitable, as is the case in Europe. For too long the American small car became synonymous with being a lesser car in many dimensions of design, quality, comfort and performance, so that it became a cheap car that you upgraded from to a larger car as you became affluent. It had been that way, but did not have to be that way after the world had changed. And the larger models like the pickup trucks and large cars are more likely to be phased out with the new regulations. This will also bring a `new sanity to oil prices, as the reduced consumption in the US will accomodate the increased consumption in India from the small cars like the Tata Nano which look set to sell in the millions, and still keep oil affordable for tight budgets worldwide. In this sense it is a victory for global good sense. For President Obama this is a personal quest, as he co-sponsored 2 bills in 2006, during this second year in the US Senate, one to raise fuel economy standards, and the other to encourage the use of alternative fuels....

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SDP candidate Olaf Scholz is seen as the most convincing of the candidates, and ahead of the Green's Baerbock and CDU's Laschet in a poll following the 90 minute television debate on German television. Scholz maintained an unperturbed demeanor as he responded to an attack from Laschet on a money laundering investigation being conducted on the finance ministry. He said Scholz was presenting a misleading picture because it was centered on the possibly illegal activities of a single employee in Cologne. He added that he had increased the financial oversight at the ministry since he took over in 2018. Looking at the problems facing German industry, and the challenges from climate change facing Germany,  Scholz had this to say on the scale of the effort needed in renewable energy- "We have 250 years of economic and industrial history behind us, based on coal, gas, and oil. And if we are to change that now that means we have to do an awful lot, for it to really work." The SPD goes into the election at this point with a six point lead over CDU. SPD at 26% vs CDU at 20%, Greens at 15%, in the INSA poll. The election debate on television continues to give SPD and Scholz the confidence needed to stay ahead. Unlike the period facing Merkel Germany after the pandemic faces challenges in social, safety net, child care, climate change, and foreign policy that require new thinking and ability to tackle new frontiers. ...

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All the extreme rhetoric on how Project 2025 is going to be adopted under a DJT administration has led to unease that there will be deterioration in the government and society.  Yet it simply may not work that way.   A second objective look at Project 2025 and how it's value to Republicans will be carefully evaluated piece by piece by DJT is needed. Keeping in mind 2026 House and Senate elections, winning broad support for the traditional Republican conservative line of thinking, and maintaining the support of all Republicans in the business, government, media and other sectors.  1. Replacing federal employees with party loyalists. This happens at the top of every agency of the government for every government in the US and Europe after an election for the last century. At today's unemployment level of 4 percent, adult males actually 3.9% and adult females 3.6%, and considering the higher salaries paid in the private sector, the tenuous nature of joining as a party loyalist as the national mood can shift at any time and things change again in 2027; where was the federal government going to find employees to be replaced at mid and lower levels? There is also the situation seen in 1928 when a Republican Hoover victory made Democrat NY Governor Al Smith compel a reluctant Franklin Roosevelt, who was just recovering from polio, to run for NY Governor. By 1931 over 3 years Franklin Roosevelt and Columbia University's Frances Perkins tested programs to stabilize employment in the US, introduce unemployment insurance as a new concept, and a 40 hour week also new, in the entire northeastern + midwestern states, all governors working together. By 1931 in just 3 years Franklin Roosevelt was on the clear path to sweeping victory in 1932 with a tested program to stabilize employment. 2.  The No. 1 goal is to restore the traditional family. It is clear in 2024 that the vast majority of Americans, whites, women as well as men, of all age groups, whites as well as Latinos and Asians, blacks, see that things like transgender "have somehow gone too far." 3. Cultural Literacy is needed for any nation to long survive. This is not even on any platform. Yet knowledge about America's history of settlement of the continent -correcting for treatment of American Indians, blacks, Chinese, Japanese without pointless race controversies- is being rapidly lost, and with it an understanding of America's civic institutions and Constitution, its founders and presidents, and evolution of the nation over the 20th century with the Industrial Revolution. The very terminology that has defined public knowledge about these United States is fast disappearing. It is a cause for unease in the minds of people in rural and urban, conservative and other parts of the political spectrum alike of what will happen to America as this is lost. 4. On immigration  a consensus was reached by president Biden that migrant flow was mishandled and the Lankford legislation offered by Republican leaders accepted by both parties to stop the flow. During his first term president Eisenhower conducted a program of returning illegal migrants to their home countries, Germany is doing this now and the UK's Labor party has made it No. 1 priority to stop migrant smuggling. 5. An effort to increase oil and gas production. This will help bring down the cost of living by reducing energy costs in the US and also helping Europe to do the same. Biden had already accepted the idea of the temporary need to do this to ease cost of living burden on the people of this Nation. The economic cost of wind and solar, are ultimate drivers for expanding renewable energy as major form of climate change action. In the first term of DJT 2016-2020 the lower cost of natural gas made it economical to switch from oil to gas. In the Biden term 2020-2024 all the effort to increase EV's on the road ran into the problem of lack of charging stations. It is possible that spread of charging stations could reverse this in the second term of DJT. It is the private sector and also the local governments that play a big part, climate change action will continue, and new R&D breakthroughs will happen to jump start it again.    ...

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The really small cars like the HOnda FIt and the Toyota Yaris and the GM Aveo are piling up on dealer lots as the price of gasoline drops to $2 a gallon from last summer's $4 a gallon. At February end 2009 Honda had 22191 Fits on dealer lots enough to last 125 days at the current sales rate, and Toyota had enough Yaris subcompacts to last 175 days at the current sales rate, according to Autodata Corp. Chrysler has a 205 day supply of the Dodge Caliber, and GM 427 days of Aveo cars. Honda Civics are also piling up. Price shifts and shifts in consumer attention and buying behaviour makes it difficult to plan ahead. The American carmakers have shifted plants to smaller and midsize cars after seeing the disastrous drop in the sales of larger vehicles in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Now government policy is to mandate fuel efficiency standards, there is talk of agasoline tax, and even the current numbers shows ashift away from the SUV's and larger vehicles of the past. Ford's sales analyst Pipas says that over the 5 months ending February 2009 sales of small cars totaled 718,000. This was down 28% over the same period in 2008, but small cars grew to 18.4% of the total market, up 2.1 points from the year earlier period. Part of this is that overall the market has declined much more than 28%. This also shows that policy in an industry-government partnership will have to show the way that is best for the US, to ensure that oil prices don't go up the way they did, when consumption at the pump was excesssive and fuel standards lax. This should also be done in a partnership with other countries like China and India to ensure that technologies are available worldwide to reduce fuel consumption and promote fuel efficiency, as keeping consumption per passenger for each mile travelled as low as possible will take pressure off the oil price. It would make automobile transportation feasible for a rapidly urbanizing Asia, and by reducing the pressure on price that urbanization and motorization in Asia would bring, help moderate oil prices for western countries. ...

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1. ACCELERATION OF DECLINING PRODUCTION FROM GULF OF MEXICO AS DRILLING RIGS LEAVE THE GULF. Offshore oil production mostly in the Gulf fell by 19% between 2003 and 2005. Natural gas production fell by about 22% from 2001 to 2004, according to EIA. The drilling rigs jack-up rigs and deep-water rigs that drill for oil and gas are declining rapidly in the Gulf of Mexico. There were 148 rigs in 2001, now only 90 remain with more leaving soon. Many of the rigs that are leaving are jack-up rigs, used for drilling for natural gas in shallower waters, and this should lead to a pronounced effect on natural gas production. Gulf Gas reservoirs that use these jack-up rigs are quickly exhausted requiring new wells to be drilled to just maintain production. Fewer rigs available mean upward pressure on natural gas prices more so than oil because gas is a market supplied locally. EIA estimates natural gas will move from recent close (July 5, 2006) of $6.10 per million BTU's to a price of $10.00 by end of 2007. This compares with a price in 2001 of $2.43. Hurrican related disruptions pushed oil prices up by $10 a barrel for hurricanes Katrina and Rita, in each of two years, so there will be continued upward pressure on oil price from this acceleration in production declines in the Gulf. 2. SEA CHANGE IN THE OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG MARKET, IN DAY RATES, IN PREFERRED DRILLING LOCATIONS, AND IN RIG PRODUCTION. The hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed 5 rigs. What is a bigger effect is that drilling companies are signing longterm deals with companies overseas. Global Santa Fe Corp. for instance signed a deal last month to send 4 jack-up rigs to Saudi Aramco at $160,000 per day, for 4 years. Ensco International will send one to Tunisia at rates approaching $200,000 for 2 years. There are hotter prospects for petroleum offshore in the Middle east, and in Africa, whereas the easier drilling spots in the Gulf have already been tapped. Worldwide 91 major offshore rigs are under construction compared to 10 in 2003 according to ODS-Petrodata. The new rigs may take till 2009 and may have delays so as to come out after 2009. They cost $160-190 million for one jack-up rig and about $600 million for one deep-water rig. All this has pushed day rates throug the roof. BP PLC agreed to pay Transocean Inc $520,000 a day for three years for a massive drill ship. The same ship cost BP PLC $185,000 a day in 2004. The drilling ship is as large as 3 football fields and can drill in oceans upto 10,000 feet deep. ...

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Why Libya looks attractive to western oil companies- unerexplored oil terrain, good middle class standards so less extremism, and compared to less friendly Venezuela and Russia, it is relatively a good candidate for the major oil companies in Europe and the US.

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Tom Friedman makes the case for a gasoline tax. As the US engages in Afghanistan, Iraq and considers the cost of health care and a large deficit, he argues that 45 cents of each dollar of agasoline tax should go to paying down the deficit, 45 cents to pay for healt care, and 10 cents to pay for cushioning the burden of agasoline tax on the poor and people who need to drive long distances to work. Energy Economist Phil Verlager says that a$1 tax on gasoline and diesel fuel would raise $140 billion a year. Mention of the gasoline tax is considered risky by politicians of both parties though it would reduce gasoline consumption and dependence on imported oil.

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Michael Barnier was the candidate for Les Republicains. Macron's Movement Renaissance party is closest in thinking to the Les Republicains, the party of De Gaulle. He was appointed prime minister of France by Macron. Barnier had proposed a strong policy of turning off non European immigration for 4 years, and not allowing relations of immigrants within the country to come in. This immigration policy is becoming accepted in Europe among the socialist parties. In Denmark socialist prime minister Mette Fredriksen was elected with policies for the working class and unions but opposed to migration on grounds that it hurts the working class. France, Germany are shifting in this direction after overburdening of social services, and crime by migrants. The US is also shifting in this direction for both Democrats and Republicans with Biden policy to close the Mexican border. This ends a period of relative tolerance which set back goals of workers and their families for a decade or longer as anti migrant parties used the protest vote to oppose worker rights and shifted the economy into the hands of pharma, oil and tech companies, billionaires in the US, UK and Europe at the expense of workers, middle class, and students.  ...

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Attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on Sauid Arabia's Aramco oil company installations are adding to geopolitical tensions. Houthi rebels in Yemen are supported by Iran and are in a war with a Saudi Arabia led coalition. This report says that the three year conflict has reached a point where instead of targeting Riyadh with missiles the Yemeni rebels in Sanaa are now targeting oil installations of Saudi Arabia. The rebels ousted a Said supported government in Sanaa and the the Saudis have failed to oust them from Sanaa, yet the conflict continues. The increase in geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudis is pushing up oil prices along with the collapse of Venezuela's oil industry and production. Prices reached $75 a barrel in April 2018. Damage from a Yemeni missile hit a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, a latest sign that the conflict could disrupt oil tanker traffic going towards the Suez Canal.  Trump administration plans to scuttle the Iran nuclear deal or renegotiate it are also increasing tensions. France's Macron favors renegotiating it compared to scuttling the whole deal, a point he made at the U.S. Congress this week, saying also that France will respect the nuclear deal with Iran. Tensions throughout the Middle East are now part of the rival powers Iran and Saudi Arabia and their proxy allies in the region seeking more influence. ...

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The factor that push oil to test new thresholds. How the value of the dollar against other currencies such as euro affects all this. Goldman's year end forecast of $85 per barrel with a risk of it hitting $90 because of poor supply- demand situation. The dollar declined 6% against the euro since the beginning of this year 2007, so this affects the purchasing power of the oil producing countries as oil prices are denominated in US$, and it affects the dollar cost of imported oil into the US because it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of oil. Other factors affecting demand are the credit crunch affecting smaller oil companies exploration budgets, higher prices have not yet affected demand globally, the lower level of inventories at this time compared with last year, and the upcoming hurricane season in the USA.

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These are key provisions in the biggest climate change bill in history- Tax credits that last for over a decade for zero carbon plants- these tax credits go to companies that build new sources of emissions free electricity, for wind turbines, solar panels, battery storage, geo thermal plants. Tax credits also for new technologies that capture and bury carbon dioxide from natural gas plants and industrial facilities before it escapes into the atmosphere and heats the planet. This technology is rarely used because of high costs. Incentives for electric vehicles- It extends a tax credit of $7500 for new electric vehicles. It adds a $4000 tax credit for used electric vehicles. Tax credit goes only to people earning $150,000 a year (300,000 for joint filers) for new EV's and $75,000 (150,000 for joint filers) for used EV's. Help for people to lower energy costs - $9 billion in rebates for Americans installing energy efficient electrical appliances. And a decade of tax credits for Americans installing rooftop solar, heat pumps, water heaters and electric HVAC, or electric heating, air conditioning and ventilation technologies. Investments in Domestic Manufacturing- $60 billion for investments in clean energy manufacturing in the US. This includes $30 billion for production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing. $10 billion in investment tax credits to build manufacturing facilities for electric cars and renewable energy technologies. This action is to halt the shifting of clean energy manufacturing overseas to China. $27 billion towards a green bank that would finance clean energy projects in disadvantaged communities. Cracking down on Methane- the bill places a fine on methane gas emissions from oil and gas wells and pipelines and other infrastructure. Fees of $900 per metric ton in 2024 and $1500 a metric ton in 2026 when it exceeds federally set limits.    ...

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In EU elections the German coalition parties of SPD, Greens and FDP barely get the vote percentage of the CDU/CSU of 30%. The SPD 13.9%, Greens 11.9% and FDP 5.2%. This is the lowest showing of the SPD. Much of the problems come from the SPD socialist democratic party that seeks to bring more social democracy by building infrastructure, public services as Biden is doing in the US, yet is prevented from doing this with the presence of the FDP which is against spending and seeks budget discipline as the charter of its party. The Finance minister Lindner is from the FDP. As a result the SPD and Greens are not able to do what they prmised in the last election to invest in infrastructure and public services. A visit to Germany shows this with the Deutsche Bahn, the rail stations with a dilapidated look as if built in the last century, trains late with old technology and less investment in maintenance. Not much construction is seen and public transport looks haggard and old. Germany's constitution makes investment difficult and court decisions limit spending or finding other sources for investment, the FDP acting as a brake on spending. The far right AfD vote was upto to15%. Without investment and offering a new vision of a modern Germany even after managing the energy crisis of which some of the fault lay with the way Merkel allowed over dependence on Russian supplies of oil and gas, even then the CDU is getting more of the vote. Another reason is the CDU under Leyen taking a strong stand on Ukraine with the SPD's history of maintaining better relations with Russia limiting its role in this crisis. As a result Germany under Scholz labors on with no solution to current problems requiring spending and investment. The next parliament election is in 2025. ...

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The Russian currency, the rouble crashed to 0.8 cents to the US dollar from 1.3 cents. It has now bounced back to 1.2 cents. Peter Coy of the NYT says this is the result of Russian oil and gas exports to Europe and other parts of the world which continued after sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine. The increase in oil prices from the war actually increased Russian oil revenues by a third. Another reason is the steps taken by the Russian government to ask for payment for energy supplies in roubles. 

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UK Business Secretary Kwarteng orders a National Security Review of the acquisition by Chinese semiconductor maker Wingtech through a Dutch subsidiary of a semiconductor factory in Wales. The factories in Wales are becoming a hub of the UK semiconductor industry with research and manufacture of compound semiconductors, which enable electric batteries for cars to get more mileage. Nine Congressmen in the US wrote to the Biden administration about the acquisition and its dangers for the UK and US semiconductor industry's technology being shifted to China. The head of the UK Foreign Affairs committee in parliament also alerted the UK government of the risks involved. The UK government has passed a law that allows it to retroactively cancel deals that are considered a risk for national security. Under the Bush and Obama administrations there was a transfer of western technology through acquisitions of this type and not much was done by the governments in Europe and the US. This enabled China to acquire western technology using its state subsidized firms which had better access to financing for acquiring key western technologies. It was only under the Trump administration that 2 decades after it started in 2000 this process was given attention. It was ignored in the same manner that the Germans under chancellors Schroeder and Merkel allowed Russian energy companies to dominate the energy sector in Germany even to the point of acquiring ownership of the storage of energy on German soil. That dependence allowed by German elites according to the Manchester Guardian in a recent article is now unwinding with the brave and unceasing efforts of Economy Minister Habeck,  who is now the most popular person in Germany for making this  correction in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine with China's support. ...

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Reited Gen Gantz appears to be the likely head of a new government after winning the most seats in parliament. Policy towards Iran is not likely to change. But a Gantz led government is likely to reduce the divisiveness in the country, and provide a more unifying effort in Israeli society. The role of religious groups in daily life would also be held back. Better relations with Jewish people in America would result and peace negotiations with Palestinians would be encouraged. The prime minister would concentrate less power in his hands. By temperament Gantz is a quiet leader who preferred not to engage in the back and forth attacks in the election campaign even when Mr. Netanyahu  did not hesitate to do so. As the head of the military from 2011 to 2015 he also has the confidence of people in Israel looking for a new start after a long period of Netanyahu rule. The current prime minister could be indicted soon after a hearing next month on charges of bribery and fraud. Mr. Trump has said that U.S. relationship is not with any leader but with the country Israel. Gantz makes it clear after Netanyahu's style of politics has rocked Israel for many years- "We will bring about a real change in priorities, and heal Israeli society in all its parts." Mr. Gantz has said that he think the Obama administration could have done more in securing a better nuclear deal with Iran. Yet at an event in 2015 when the deal was being set, Mr Gantz said he also saw "the half full part of the glass." That the deal would keep Iran 10 or 15 years from making a nuclear weapon "with the right price." At this juncture in world affairs this is important because Mr. Trump has shown flexibility in dealing with Iran following the firing of National Security Adviser Bolton. Trump held back on a response at several points during the attacks in the Straits of Hormuz and the taking of ships hostage by Iran and the UK. The attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the difficulty of protecting oil installations in the region, Iran's increasingly difficult position under tight U.S. sanctions and pressure on Asian buyers of Iranian oil to cut back purchases, the efforts of Japan and India dependent on Saudi and Iranian oil to reduce tensions, all point to a new policy in the region with a new Israeli government playing a useful role to keep policy control in the hands of Asian countries dependent on oil supplies for their economies, and in the hands of a U.S. president better informed about a policy course that is in U.S. interests of avoiding unnecessary engagements overseas when there are other pressing priorities. ...