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The Trump real estate assets in New York and the real estate business are at risk in the civil case in New York about inflated asset values and loans, says this report in The Guardian. Judge Ergoron is handling this case and this is not a jury trial. This report in The Guardian asks, did Mr. Trump have the goods, citing a line in his 1987 book, "The Art of the Deal." It says after all the press, the hyperbole, the promotion and the excitement, if one cannot deliver the goods, people finally catch on to what is happening.

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More proof that China's real estate prices resemble the period of the bubble in real estate prices in Tokyo in the late 1980's. One parking space goes for $760,000 in Hong Kong in a luxury development.

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The problems in the commercial real estate bad loans that make it too hard for the government to rescue. An adjustment here could slow the economy in the years ahead and expose banks to big losses in the $3.4 trillion outstanding commercial real estate debt. Big banks benefitted from the gvernmet TARP program, and after the stress tests raised funds. But big banks held only 29% of the $1.84 trillion commercial real estate debt on bank balance sheets in the 2nd quarter of 2009, according to Foresight Analytics. Smaller banks with $1 billion to $10 billion of assets had $450 billion in commercial real estate exposure in the second quarter equivalent to 330% of Tier 1 capital. For the largest banks that ratio was much less at 99%, according to Foresight. And the smaller banks did not get stresstested the way the larger banks did and so wer not able to raise enough equity. Governmet plans to deal with this coming crisis are to hopwe that real estae prices recover. a recovery of 10% could cut those loans underwater to 37% from 68%. And regulators issued guidelines to encourage banks to restructure, not foreclose on problem commercial mortgages. But even if prices rise banks would want to pare exposure not refinance these loans. Meanwhile the $700 billin market in bonds backed by commercial real estate loans is moribund....

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Independent contractors rule reinstated by DJT administration following employee status push by Biden and unions. This affects 11.9 million workers in the US. Independent contractors cannot unionize and lack some of the protections of labor law. The independent contractors get to choose where they work for remote work days and get to choose the projects they want to take up, set their own hours which can help for childcare or care for parents. It includes workers in real estate, construction, arts, design, and personal care, where most of these independent contractors work. Only a small part is in Uber drivers or DoorDash delivery gig workers. This Editorial Board opinion in Wash. post cites Bureau of Labor Statistics that says from a 2023 survey that 80% of this worker group prefers independent contractor work to full time traditional employment which has less flexibility.

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This is an indepth article on Donald Trump's financial holdings, looking at the debt that Trump has built up in his real estate dealings, by Susanne Craig of the NYT. To get a detailed look of this the NYT inquiry into the holdings engaged RedVision Systems, a national property information firm to search publicly available data. Much of Trump's business is shrouded in mystery. But it is well known that Trump has used debt to build his business in a way that is not considered good practice in business, having led to three bankruptcies. Trump says he "is the king of debt." And "he loves debt." The recovery of real estate values during a rescue effort for the country's financial system also helped Trump tackle debt in a way that was not available to other entrepreneurs who suffered from the oil price collapse- one of them McClendon also used debt aggressively and his business collapsed leading to suicidal car crash. You can love excessive debt only if the government supports you with some sort of financial guarnatee misplaced, or you are lucky to get away with it- just ask McClendon. The irony is that the rescue of the financial system led to the low interest rates that hurt savings of the middle and working class, and the lack of help to Main Street in the home foreclosure crisis also hurt the same people disproportionately. The Obama administration policies in this regard rescued the very same business interests such as the New York real commercial estate symbolized by Trump, that are now appealing to those hurt as president Obama worked to let the financial system recover. The intention was never to support excessively overleveraged banks or overleveraged real estate built on debt, but in reality this is what happened. A nation cannot run its financial affairs in this manner of overleveraging to extract high profits that an investment bank such as Lehman or Goldman Sachs does, or a real estate company such as Trump's does- if regulators let them do this. Normally after the financial crisis of such dimensions that it shook the world economy in 2008-2009 leading to fears of a collapse as happened in the 1930's, the same faces would not still be there. But this is a strange period or a transition period where things are being sorted out, and the same faces Blankfein at Goldman Sachs and Trump in New York commercial real estate are with us.  And though the bashing of Goldman Sachs connection to Clinton is evident in the campaigns of Trump and Sanders, the bashing of Trump real estate and finance companies with its overleveraging and bankruptcies is evident in the campaign of Clinton against one posing as a representative of the working class. John Paulson who benefitted by shorting mortgage securities that caused the financial crisis of 2008 is on Trump's top economic advisory team, including the hedge funds and financial interests on Wall Street that Trump is saying support Clinton. No one, not the NYT or WSJ, can answer this, its just the paradox of today's situation. Hillary Clinton can say she has learned her lesson, with her Methodist upbringing and her own supporters such as Robert Reich and others, and break with the past especially as it in no way contributes to her success as president, not one bit. In fact rebuilding the middle class and infrastructure require entirely different connections and views on life, a different imagination.  Trump has billions of dollars and a real estate business that is so complex that even the NYT and property information firms can only say that in the end it is shrouded in mystery. Companies owned by Trump says the NYT from this inquiry have debt of $650 million. Other Trump business activities through 3 passive partnerships owe an additional $2 billion. It is a lot easier for Hillary Clinton to put the speech fees behind her as they have little to do with what she is as a Methodist and a proponent of improving women's lives, than it is for Donald Trump- for whom his business is everything that he is including his art of the deal- to reject who he is. ...

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Gottfried says the large premium offered by Zillow to acquire Trulia is an issue, as the $3.5 billion in stock offered is about twice the market value of Trulia in July 2014. The deal does not address the limitation of both sites in that all the listings come from the real estate brokerage firms and is purely defensive.

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The fickle basis for recovery in the Phoenix real estate market with a surge in buying of speculative buyers from out of state or Canada. One in four buyers is from out of state or Canada. The normal buying by homeowners or apartment renters moving up is absent.

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The real estate bubble in Canada with the average price of a home in Toronto in May 2012 reaching C$516,787, increasing by 6.5% from 2011, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

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Real estate linked assets of banks have declined from 48.6% in 2006 to 38.6% in 2014, a level seen in 1987. This is a result of the 2008 financial crisis and the bad experience with real estate investments. This is also a healthy development for the U.S. economy because real estate speculation led to the financial crisis of 2008-2009, creating high unemployment and stagnation in wage growth.

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Douthat says the record of Texas in jobs, in education, in minority achievement, in rising wages, and in preventing a real estate bubble is genuine and needs to be respected. He is uncertain as to how much of this is a result of Rick Perry's leadership in the state.

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Zillow's acquisition of Trulia is supported by the need to reduce costs and spending on marketing. The combined firms will spend $100 million on marketing in 2014, according to CFO Aggarwal. Aggarwal says antitrust issues are not a concern as Zillow and Trulia only get about 4-5% of the $12 billion real estate agents spend on advertising each year. As the deal wil close by 2015 this gives the two firms time to absorb recent acquisitions by Trulia of Market Leader and Zillow's acquisition of New York city centred StreetEasy and apartment HotPads. Both sites will continue as different brands servicing different parts of the market and reducing spending on technology and marketing.

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The Economist looks at real estate markets in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Hong Kong, India and other countries in May 2013. It looks at price to disposable income and price to rent ratios and sees if these ratios are higher than historical averages to determine if prices are based on sound foundations. Canada's real estate market looks set to face problems of a bubble bursting. The U.S. recovery is seen to be based on firm foundations. Property prices are undervalued in Germany and set to rise.

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Research firm Dragonomics says real estate prices fell 4.9% in April from the prior year for nine cities in China. In 2010 prices in these nine cities went up by 21.5%, the increase in 2009 was 10%. Standard Chartered estimates China's second tier cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, could have 20 months of housing inventory by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered says price declines of 10-20% can be expected. Government data understates the extent of the bubble and the drop in prices say analysts. Beijing real estate consultant, Soufun, confirms the slowdown in price increases, saying its data show average property prices went up by 5.1% in May over the prior year, compared to the jump in prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices of copper and steel are coming down after rapid increases. The price increases in the Chinese real estate market have put housing out of the reach of ordinary couples. In 2006 an average price of a new apartment in Beijing cost $100,000, by 2011 this had gone up to $250,000. It woud take 57 years of saving for an average person to buy the apartment at todays cost. The government's response has been to boost down payments on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, prohibiting state owned enterprises outside the real estate sector from investing in real estate, and raising the reserve requirements of banks....

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The bubble in Canada's real estate market reached its peak in 2011-2012. The average price of a home in Vancouver reached a high of C$815,252 in April 2011, before declining to C$721,958 in Sept. 2012, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, Average prices nationwide in Canada were at C$372,544. Prices are being pushed up by buyers from China. Canada is taking steps to restrain the bubble by changing immigration rules. The immigration minister temporarily froze the Federal Skilled Worker Program and the Immigrant Investor Program. Under the latter program citizenship was given in five years to qualified immigrants investing over C$800,000 in Canada. Other measures include cutting the mortgage amortization to 25 years from 30 years, and reducing the amount of home equity Canadians can borrow against from 85% to 80%. Home sales in Vancouver declined 33% in Sept 2012 over prior year and listings increased 14%. The moves are modest because real estate agents see it as a pause in the bidding wars that were taking place, and the market remains overinflated....

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NYT looks at the corruption in city government in Los Angeles. During the turn of the century Tammany Hall was a term used for the organization down to city wards that controlled city government and under city bosses led to much corruption. Rapid real estate development in the city of Los Angeles with Chinese developers investing in building high rise office and other buildings in the city led to corruption. A large concentration of power, the lack of news coverage from local sources as one of the effects of the internet, surges in real estate growth, have led to reduced attention to the effects of corruption in the city of Los Angeles and in the state of California. Jose Huizar on the City council and Raymond Chang deputy mayor are shown here in this NYT report to be convicted of racketeering charges.  Over a decade 576 public officials in California have been convicted on federal corruption charges, according to Justice Department reports, says the NYT. This is more than the number of cases in states better known for public corruption, including New York, New Jersey and Illinois. ...

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Leinberger describes a study he did with Mariela Alfonso for the Brookings Institution. This study shows that walkable areas of Washington D.C. metropolitan areas, including parts of Virginia and Maryland, have higher real estate values . The more the walkable area the higher the real estate price. Similiar trends are being seen in other parts of the country including Seattle, Washington. The trend is shifting in favor of areas with walkable and bikable space creating better communities.

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Increased use of remote work is leading to vacant office space with occupancy of office towers falling. This has led to the coining of the term "urban doom loop" as more and more office space goes vacant and real estate companies default on mortgages or lose money. Less use of office space hits retail stores in the same area leading to losses in the state including a hit to tax revenues. This is expected to have an outsize effect on midsize cities such as Charlotte or Indianapolis. This is being watched closely so that it does not affect the Us economy and growth.

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Residential property investments are showing a consistent return in Japan. In 2013 residential property investments had a total return of income plus capital gains of 8.0% vs. 9.7% in the U.S., according to Investment Property Databank Ltd. In 2009 the worst year, returns were -3.8% in Japan vs. -16.3% in the U.S. Income gains support returns for residential investments. Investment is increasing with real estate investment up to 3.5 trillion yen in year to date Sept 2014, up 13% over the same period prior year. Blackstone is buying General Electric's residential real estate properties (about 10,000 non-luxury rental units in major cities), as trends show more people moving to cities.