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The failure of Merkel's and Macron's policies in Europe. The policies contained a contradiction says this WSJ report- doing little to address concerns of Russia over NATO expansion and yet opting to build better economic relations with Russia. Merkel and Macron failed to tackle the main issue of NATO expansion. Did NATO need to expand continuously and what could be done so that Eastern European countries could join the EU but not NATO as a defense alliance. Without some new framework on this issue that was determined between US, Russia and Germany, France, for post 1990 peaceful relations the relationship with Russia based purely on trade has collapsed.  

This WSJ report also brings up the issue of the US and Europe not having it both ways - continually expanding NATO in the interests of the smaller nations in Eastern Europe and yet hoping to build a better relationship with Russia.

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German politicians are critical of Finance minister Schauble's remarks comparing Putin's takeover of Crimea to Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland. Merkel distances herself from the remarks considering that a singular event. Former chancellor Kohl tells the Bild newspaper, "there's been a lack of sensitivity in dealing with our Russian neighbor, especially President Putin." Decades of hard work in building relations with the Soviet Union since Willy Brandt initiated engagement, followed by Schmidt, Kohl and Schroeder, are seen as being put at risk by the German public and government. Business interests are also at stake. Polls show 60% of German's oppose sending the German air force to NATO's eastern borders, and German foreign minister Steinmeier said there was no way for Ukraine to join NATO. A former German ambassador to the U.S., head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, says Germany not the U.S. would suffer the most from a deterioration in relations. Companies like Siemens and Deutsche Bahn put a high priority on de-escalation of the crisis....

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Senior officials from Russia and OPEC producers meet in Jeddah in April 2018 to work out plans to continue cuts in production to reduce inventories and lift oil prices. The deal was first made in 2016 to reduce the glut then prevailing that led to a slump in oil prices to the $50 per barrel level. The agreement has worked to remove about 2% of world oil production. Healthy demand in 2018 from economies of Europe and America has helped lift oil prices with the cuts in production in place to $70 per barrel. A reinstatement of sanctions on Iran could limit supplies from Iran. Venezuelan production is down in its current economic crisis. Russia says it is 100 percent committed to compliance with the agreement with Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries. It was the lack of agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia with each going its own way following the Russian intervention in Syria favoring Iran that increased the glut in oil supplies in 2015 leading to a fall in oil prices. For some time this hurt the Russian economy and Russia responded by actively devaluing its currency to maintain economic stability and internal growth. The Saudis were hit too by the fall in oil prices limiting new investments in the economy. The new agreement between Russia and the Saudis/OPEC comes after mutual interest has prevailed in the relations of OPEC  and Russia over the geopolitics in the region between Iran supported by Russia and the Saudis. It also comes as relations between the U.S. and Russia are worsening, with increasing investments in the military. ...

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The Russian position for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks is set forth by president Putin. "Our principled position is that state of Ukraine must be neutral, non aligned and free of nuclear weapons." Putin wants Ukraine to give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine. Capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and some of the territory is controlled by Ukraine today. It means that Russia could accept a ceasefire under the present lines of control. It also means Ukraine would not be part of NATO, though it could be part of the European Union, as a peace settlement. All western sanctions on Russia would have to be lifted. Throughout the decade of this war Russia has maintained close connections to the Russian speaking eastern part of Ukraine with historically close ties to Russia and as Ukraine public opinion shifted to the EU Russia began its efforts to bring these regions under its control even when German-Russian relations were better during Merkel years. Russia has the support of China and Brazil in its position. At some point if a settlement is reached one possibility is that the line of actual control or LAC would be put in place. It happened in the Korean War, when the demilitarized zone was setup and in other conflicts on the Indian border with China and Pakistan, in Cyprus between Greece and Turkey. For it to happen Russia will have to dispel fears in the EU and the US that Russia will continue the conflict at some later stage till all its objectives are achieved. This requires removing the perception that Putin is set on achieving all his objectives to reopen the war at some later stage. Mr. Putin hinted at this by saying "today we are making a concrete real peace proposal," and adding that Russia was not ''talking about freezing the conflict, but its final resolution." In this situation it is the western doubt about Putin's intentions that is another barrier to a settlement on European security, with continued destruction in Ukraine when the war has entered a stalemate where both sides have exhausted their resources and have little to gain by prolonging this conflict. ...

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Under the DJT administration in contrast to the Biden approach US has improved relations with Russia, and is regularly sending envoys to Russia to ensure both sides are on good talking terms. 

Russia's Dmitry Peskov plays down rhetoric and calls US submarines "on duty anyway" and dismisses idea of escalation August 4, 2025. He says- "Very complex, very sensitive issues are being discussed, which, of course, many perceive very emotionally." 

"We are always happy to see Mr Witkoff in Moscow... We consider such contact important, meaningful and useful." Peskov says that Witkoff and Putin may meet.

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Some Russians see the Helsinki Summit as having the unintended effect of reducing the chances U.S. relations with Russia can be improved. Mr. Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviser wanted to see Mr. Trump bring up the issue of meddling in the election and seek public guarantees that this would not happen again. Trump's deference to Mr. Putin may result these Russians say in the U.S. Congress, media and public opinion limiting any repair of U.S. Russia relations that have fallen to new lows. 

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Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

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As Chancellor Scholz sets anew direction for Germany reminiscent of the days of Adenauer and Brandt following the Berlin Airlift in 1948, two previous chancellors offer a stark contrast. Policies of Gerhard Schroder of the SDP and Angela Merkel of the CDU created some aspects of the situation where China and Russia are able to act in the manner they are acting today. Schroder made CDU policies under Merkel look acceptable even as they actually strengthened the position of both Russia and China in relation to the US. Both Schroder by joining the boards of Russian oil companies and Merkel with her policy towards China integrating German economy with China's, have created a situation where the American and European, Indian and other Asian, Latin American, African views of the free world are being challenged. 

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What was established in Alaska meeting in Anchorage was the necessary rapport between two world powers. During the Bush, Obama, Biden administrations Russia was treated as a secondary economic power on Wall Street, with the focus shifted to China, which damaged relations with Russia which has always seen itself as a Northern European economic power. Some of the roots of the conflict go back to this period. In a nuclear world the size and historical relation in Northern Europe of Russia cannot be ignored purely on economic grounds about the size of it's economy in the way China could not be ignored in the 60's and 70's when it's economy was not what it is today. History and culture are not in Wall Street or Silicon Valley's understanding or grasp of international relations which go beyond economic and business considerations. On DJT and the first term, the survival of the US president- “When I came out of the plane and I said, ‘Good afternoon, dear neighbor. Good to see you in good health and to see you alive. I think that’s very neighborly and I think that’s some kind words that say to each other.” On Ukraine- “We have always considered and continue to consider the Ukrainian people our brothers and sisters. We share the same roots, and everything that is happening is a tragedy and a source of pain for us. Our country is interested in putting an end to this. But at the same time, we are convinced that for the settlement to be long-term, all the causes of the crisis must be eliminated." On DJT's assertion that if he was president there would have been no Ukraine war- Putin says "I can confirm that." “Today, we hear President Trump say that if he had been president, there would have been no war. I think that would have been the case. I can confirm that. Because, overall, President Trump and I had established a very good working relationship based on trust.”     ...

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China's military exercises for air and sea blockade of Taiwan raise the political risk of doing business in China says this report in WSJ. It raises the risk level for American corporations such as Apple and Boeing and others, that have large investments in China. The escalating tension and freeze in relations between the US and China is a watershed moment says the WSJ. Looking back years from now it may be the year following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine that tensions took on a level that would lead to acceleration of the building of new supply chains for the US and European Union in Asia that separate from China. The Trump years as president escalated trade tensions and tensions over origins of Covid. The war in Ukraine and China's siding with Russia and forming a "no limits" partnership with Russia have created serious rethinking of the entire relationship from supply chains to defense. US president Biden sees Ukraine's defense as a way of showing that an attack on one country by a neighbor in violation of international law is not acceptable to the US, and particularly in the context of China's relations with Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific countries. In this situation the US is taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine with Gen. Cavoli at US Headquarters in Europe assisting in the effort to repel Russian aggression, and also send a message to China on the importance the US sees in not allowing this kind of violation of international law. ...

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  A look at European history shows even in the religious wars between Catholics and Protestants France took the Protestant side when it was in its national interest. Other European nations also did the same in the Thirty Years War 1618-1648. China shifted out of the Soviet Bloc in the 1970's. There is no monolithic way in foreign policy. US sees it in its interest to get a European population Russian on its side or separate from China in meeting the challenge from China. After 3 years of war in which the US relations with Russia deteriorated because of the Ukraine war and US supplying Ukraine under the Biden administration, DJT reverses US policy to improve relations with Russia. The goal is to improve US-Russia relations. Because this also involves ending the Ukraine war that is destroying a whole generation of young men in Russia and Ukraine, US is exploring ways to end that war through early discussions to get a sense of Russian perceptions.This is why the US does not need the Europeans or the Ukrainians at the table. Ways in which US will restore relations-Restore staffing levels at embassies and consulates. Find ways to cooperate on economy and foreign policy issues.   ...

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Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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U.S. senior Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona, are getting ready to launch a wide ranging probe of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election through cyber attacks. The probe is not limited to DNC hacking and the concern is not just that any one candidate was targeted but for the integrity of the American election process. Even though it is not mentioned in this report in the Washington Post by Demirjian, Senators and Congressmen from the Republican Party in charge of key committees of oversight on foreign policy and defense now see it as their responsibility to prevent an enlargement of cyberattacks as Germany and France face elections. Mr. Trump has said in an interview with Time magazine that Russia was not responsible for cyber attacks, that it "could have been China, it could have been some guy in New Jersey." Senator McCain is readying a probe into cyber attacks into U.S. weapons systems, and U.S. military, as the issue widens in its scope and significance for the West and for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia. Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (N.C.) will be working closely with McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, on this particular issue and Senator Mitch McConnell has been apprised of the discussions, according to this report in WP. Senator Graham said- "They'll keep doing more here until they pay a price." Graham will hold a series of investigative hearings in 2017 about Russian meddling and "misadventures throughout the world."  This will include new legislation.  Graham told CNN on Dec. 7, 2016 in strong language- "I am going after Russia in every way you can go after Russia. I think they are one of the most destabilizing influences on the world stage. I think they did interfere with our election, and I want Putin personally to pay the price." During the debates Governor Pence of Indiana, the Vice President elect took a strong position on Russia, and the Vice President's positions on foreign policy and defense are similar to that of the Republican leaders in Congress.  It is hard to remember a time in the post war period when there was such a distinct difference in foreign policy and defense as it relates to Russia between a Republican president and both a Republican Congress and almost all Republican governors. Senator Corker from Tennessee, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on the short list to be Secretary of State. A related story in the WSJ shows the selection of military leaders for key intelligence, defense and homeland security, and Gen. Petraeus considered for foreign policy, as diverging from historical practice of keeping civilian oversight preeminent in the U.S.. Rep. Peter King, an early supporter of Trump, who is on committees for intelligence and counterterrorism told MSNBC, that he is confident that Trump will not be "taken in by Putin." The U.S. Republican dominated Congress has taken a strong position on Russian interference in Syria and Ukraine. In the House of Representatives Republican Rep. Devin Nunes from California and Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas are leading efforts on cyber and intelligence as heads of their committees. ...

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War in Ukraine after failed Alaska effort by US to end the war. In September 2025 Russia holds out, spurning peace efforts from the US president, to see if the economy holds out over the next 24 months and Russia can get Ukraine to abandon it's efforts to join the EU and Western European alliances. The baffling aspect of this war is that the neutral aspect adopted by Finland before the war, by Sweden, by the Swiss, was never considered as a realistic option by Ukraine, looking beyond the problems of the 1930's and having awareness that there were weaknesses in both the capitalist and the Soviet systems, to take the broad larger view. And with that being realistic that a better effort would be to reflect on the corruption and lack of clean government, the need to build the healthy institutions that would serve the people best. The approach taken by Gandhi in India in its relations with Britain, to preserve the best and improve on what failed the Indian people, and reflect on the integrity, the right attitude needed for India in the Modern World. From the Russian side the failure to use the period before the shift to renewable energy to invest the capital used in the war of $200 billion a year for a stronger economy and industrial base in 2022- 2027- an investment of a trillion dollars that would make it the industrial power and support its position as the preeminent power in Northern Europe. ...

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Russia is raising taxes on the rich, high earners and companies to keep military spending at levels not seen since the height of the Cold War of 6% of GDP. This is part of effort to keep the economy growing and standards of living stable as it pursues a long term policy of trying to push its borders further to the west in the Ukraine region and confront what it sees as unwarranted NATO expansion to its borders. Russia also with China's support is conducting its policy to show that it is undeterred by Sweden and Finland joining NATO or the early setbacks in its Ukraine war effort. This happens as China is moving to less strident positions in its relations with the EU and the US and working for some level of working relations on trade and economy with EU and the US as its economy slows down.

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Sanae Takaichi press conference with DJT at White House March 19 2026- there is no mention of Japanese help with clearing Straits of Hormuz. US Japan relations after the meeting of Takaichi and DJT at the White House appear to be in good shape. Japan will invest $73 billion in US investment projects in 2026 as part of the $550 billion commitment made at the time of the US Japan trade deal in 2025 under the previous LDP prime minister. Takaichi is coming with strong support in Japan after winning a landslide victory in the general election. Japan's main concern is the belligerent North Korea and China's posture in Asia as it relates to Taiwan. Agreements were reached on critical issues- to develop alternative supplies of critical minerals, to rebuild the shipbuilding industry which US and Japan had given up after dominating it for most of the 20th century. This is critical to ensure open navigation on the oceans of the world. Agreements on high tech and AI, and agreement to purchase Alaskan oil to cut Japan's 90% dependence on volatile Middle East supplies. Japan has managed Middle East supply by keeping over 254 days of inventory but this looks to be very risky as Germany learned from its dependence on Russian oil which went in the wrong direction under Merkel. Japan has released about 18% of its total reserve amount of the 254 days inventory (146 days in national reserves and 101 days in private mandated reserves). It uses 3.14 million barrels a day in 2026 down from 5.8 million barrels a day in 1996, using about half today through conservation and using renewable energy showing the potential for the US and Europe. Germany has cut oil consumption by a third in comparison from 2.9 mbd in 1996 to 2.0 in 2026. And the US remains stagnant with oil demand highest in 2005 at 20.5 mbd and 20 years later at 20.5 mbd mainly because 14mbd or 70% goes to cars and trucks on the road for 347 million people over continental spaces (compared to 297 million in 2005) for a reduction of oil use of 15%. ...

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By giving its approval to Russia's Nordstream 2 gas pipeline the Biden administration is putting priority on restoring good relations with Germany. Germany had pushed for the Nordstream 2 pipeline in its discussions with the US.

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US EU relations are on a better track with president Biden, yet tough talks on issues such as Russia and China, vaccines, climate change remain, and there is the uncertainty of new leadership in France and Germany with upcoming elections.

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Steinmeier has pursued the middle road in Germany's relations with Russia even after the tensions over Ukraine. He says we have to put behind us the illusions that a multipolar world will replace the bipolar world. He looks to his Protestant faith in these times, and says it is important to stay involved, and not allow escalation of conflicts at the periphery, such as the one in Ukraine. Critics such as the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, say his diplomacy and efforts at Ostpolitik is a matter of just opening doors, that Putin has already created discord in Europe.

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Condoleeza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State, who insisted on meeting opposition leaders in Cairo during the Mubarak regime (in Condoleeza Rice, Washington Post, 2/16/2010, The Future of a Democratic Egypt), reflects on the situation after parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia in March 2012. She says that the growing middle class in Russia seeks respect and participation in how Russia is to be governed. She thinks Russia's dependence on oil and commodities for revenues fosters a climate of corruption and it should move faster in the direction of diversifying its economy. Russian entry in the World Trade Organization, fostering a climate for Russian engineers and scientists to work inside Russia and start new companies, and building U.S. and European business and private ties with Russia's public and private sectors, should be promoted to help the Russian economy diversify. Resetting Russian relations or depending on the U.S. government to come up with solutions appears to be the wrong answer, Rice points out, because resetting is still based on internal politics in Russia. ...

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The complex relations of Jordan and Saudis with US and Israel, in June 2025.  There is also the perception and actions of the two American parties Republicans and Democrats that have exacerbated the situation. This see saw of relations under the two parties in the US has only served to exacerbate the relations and draw the US into Middle East conflicts that have their origins in British colonial rule and interests of western oil companies from 1900.  During the Reagan period American involvement under Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to support the Iraqi invasion of Iran in a balancing act. And just a year earlier the Democrat Carter's efforts to look at the Islamic revolution as a response to the CIA's intervention in Iran's internal affairs under Eisenhower's Foreign minister Dulles to secure oil supplies, and efforts to find a way to good relations with Iran. This was followed by the Democrat Obama negotiating with Iran, normalizing relations and Democrat Biden handing over Iranian assets  of hundreds of billions of dollars that were used DJT says to build its military that had suffered badly under the earlier western sanctions under Republican Trump.  It has led to some of the migration from Syria after Russian involvement that flooded Germany with millions of migrants and destabilized European countries democratic processes. These earlier interactions between US and Iran have turned into an Iranian effort to develop its nuclear capabilities bringing the situation faced today, and showing the failure to find solutions of everything tried before and not helping the people of the Arab World and the Gulf regions.   ...

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For readers who heard about the restoration of U.S. relations with Cuba this may come as a surprise to know that the Cuban trade embargo by the U.S. is still in place. President Trump plans to reverse the steps take by president Obama for better relations. This story in the WSJ is unusual showing how much Cubans are looking for consumer goods so that they make a 13 hour trip to Russia for this. It is hard to believe after all the media coverage on restoration of relations with the U.S..  Cuba remains economically stuck in the past in the range of consumer goods available, and this looks likely to continue even after all the publicity following president Obama's trip there in 2016.

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This report by David Sanger of the NYT shows how the Russia sanctions that president Putin hoped to remove are likely to remain in place and somewhat expanded. Russia's economy has seen slow growth of 1% as a result of a fall in foreign investment. This is likely to continue, says Sanger. American investment in privatization will be restricted to not more than $10 million, and the investments in Nord Stream pipeline are affected. Russia needs foreign investment in its economy, and this is affected. Sanger points out that even if president Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson preferred the option of having presidential authority to lift sanctions to improve relations with Russia, this now runs into Congressional opposition. At the Aspen Security Forum in mid July, Dan Coats and Mike Pompeo, senior intelligence officials in the administration, said that there was an effort to influence the U.S. election. The problems started with the opposition movement in Ukraine, leading to the collapse of the government in 2014. Before this Russia- U.S. relations followed the trajectory set early in the Putin first  and second term of improving the economy by forging better relations with the EU and the U.S. This resulted in a stronger economy and more foreign investment. Things deteriorated after the Ukraine issue came into prominence. For the U.S., the EU and Russia, an inability to come to a better understanding and resolve differences on Ukraine has created a downward trajectory, that has not benefited any of the countries involved.   ...