LyrArc Article Gist
Fumio Kishida, former foreign minister who called for strengthening Japanese missile defenses, and reducing income inequality in Japan, was elected party leader of the ruling LDP party. Kishida is a choice of the Japanese parliament LDP in a runoff, after he was tied with Taro Kano in a vote of LDP party members. As leader of the LDP he will succeed Yoshihide Suga as prime minister. Kishida says a major problem facing Japan was the widening income and wealth gap during the pandemic. "If the profits from growth are monopolized  by a few people, the gap will widen even  further. It's not just abut growth, it's about distribution."  Kishida also favors government spending of hundreds of billions of dollars to boost the economy in Japan after the difficulties with the pandemic.This is similar to the approach on the economy, infrastructure investment and income inequality, taken by president Biden in the US, and vice chancellor Scholz in Germany.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Britain's GDP growth was at an annualized pace of 2.0% for the fourth quarter of 2014, with full year 2014 growth at 2.6%, according to the Office of National Statistics. This was the highest annual growth rate since 2007.

LyrArc Article Gist
US GDP growth annualized for the 1st quarter is reported to be 1.6% and inflation at about 2.8%. The prospects of continued strong growth and higher inflation suggests the Fed's Powell will not make any interest rate cuts in coming months.

LyrArc Article Gist
GDP expanded at 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the Turkey Statistics Office. This follows a contraction by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016. For the full year the GDP growth is 2.9 percent, a decline from the 6.1% in 2015. In 2015 Turkey gained from lower oil prices. This was offset in 2016 by the politics in the region- the increased instability in the country following a crackdown on the opposition and media, internal conflict in the Kurdish region which appeared for a time to be leading to peaceful settlement. As a result tourism revenues declined by 30% and this was offset by increased government spending. The uncertainty before the referendum also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

LyrArc Article Gist
China GDP growth forecast at 5% in 2025 and first half actuals at 5.3% with frontloading. The frontloading is because of surge in exporting before tariffs hit by May.  China is waiting to put fiscal stimulus as it fears tariffs will lower growth and increase unemployment. The housing sector is in deep slump. At this point fiscal stimulus is determined in Washington DC. The actual growth in 2025 may turn out to be much lower than 5% considering the weakness in the economy and the issues of tariffs and tough trade negotiations with the US and a changed environment for trade with the European Union.

LyrArc Article Gist
Aaron Back says this time China is likely to feel the effects of the volatility in the stock markets. The surge in the stock markets added about half a percentage point to GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2015, according to Capital Economics. GDP growth in the 1st quarter 2015 was 7%. Capital Economics says removing the boost from the stock market to a sluggish economy would mean a loss of 1 percentage point in GDP growth. Equity issuance was one way China hoped to reduce high debt levels at companies, and that avenue would the be that much harder to access to reduce debt levels. Margin financing is about $354 billion, or 3.5% of GDP according to Goldman Sachs, posing another source of problems and potentially affecting growth if stock losses lead to defaults. Declining investor sentiment and confidence in management of the economy would be another casualty in this situation. Only 10% of Chinese households own stocks compared to 50% in the U.S., yet Aaron Back says the effects of this are likely to be felt in lower economic growth and shaken confidence in the economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

LyrArc Article Gist
What are the figures behind the 3.5% GDP growth numbers for the third quarter of 2009, and what does it tell us. This figure conceals real weaknesses in the economy covered up by substantial government support. About 1% of this was from auto vehicles and parts -where the cash for clunkers program played abig part and many have actually siphoned off future sales and put it in the present- 0.6% from federal spending, and 0.5% from residential investment where home builders were keen to take advantage of a $8000 government credit for homebuyers. This gives over 2.1% of GDP growth in the third quarter from government support. About 0.9% was from a change in inventories. And 0.8% was from other consumer goods and 0.6% from consumer services. Exports added 1.5% to GDP growth and imports were a negative 2%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bank of America CEO, Brian Moynihan sees economic growth at 2.5% for the U.S. in 2014, and global economic growth for GDP at 3.5%. He expects the Fed to continue its bond buying program in 2014 to prevent any backsliding in economic growth in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth was a seasonally adjusted annual -1% in the 1st quarter of 2014, according to the Commerce Department.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth slowed in the 1st quarter 2015 to seasonally adjusted 0.2%, according to the Commerce Department.

LyrArc Article Gist
Weak capital expenditure by Japanese corporations reduced economic growth in the second quarter of 2013. GDP growth was at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the second quarter of 2013, declining from 3.8% in the first quarter 2013. Compared with the prior quarter the Japanese economy growth was 0.6%. Consumption growth was 0.8%, but capital expenditures declined by 0.1%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lagging growth in GDP per capita, productivity growth, in Italy, with small family business unwilling to take risks for growth, and bureaucratic hurdles for business. To get an idea how Italy has lagged severely behind other countries in Europe, consider that GDP per capita increased by 28% in Spain, and 22% in France, compared to only 8% in Italy during the 20 year period 1993-2013, according to the Conference Board. Productivity growth measured by GDP per hour worked for Italy showed growth of only 13% in that 20 year period, compared to 30% in France and 23% in Spain. Since the 2008 global financial crisis the Italian economy has shrunk by 9% and growth is barely 1% in 2014. During 1993-2003 top performers Germany showed 31% increase in GDP per capita and 32% increase in productivity growth, the UK showed 44% increase in GDP per capita and 38% in productivity growth. Because of slowing population growth GDP growth has to come from productivity increases in Europe. France is the strongest in terms of productivity with $59 of GDP per hour worked, UK $51, and Germany $57. Italy at $45 has fallen behind Spain at $50. Conference Board statistics show GDP per capita in inflation adjusted, purchasing power adjusted 2013 dollars at $35,847 for France, $40,868 for Germany, $30,145 for Spain, $39,904 for Britain, and Italy lagging behind at $31,386. Most of the gains were made before 1993 for Italy, whereas Spain surged in the period after 1993 only slowing after 2008. The struggles in the U.S. auto industry showed how well meaning changes for labor in the early postwar period if not adapted to changes in the global economy decades later can lead to sharp decline before adjustment is made. In Italy well meaning labor laws in the early postwar period not adapted to changes in the global economy decades later, combined with cultural behaviour of entrenched group interests, and a bureaucratic government, have stifled growth and productivity....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Japanese government reports a revised estimate for GDP growth in 3rd quarter 2015 from a decline of 0.8% to an annualized rate of growth of 1%. As a result Japan is no longer in recession as previously reported.

LyrArc Article Gist
Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's GDP growth is at an annualized pace of 3.5% for the 1st quarter of 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
Greece's GDP was up by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2014, according to Elstat, with the recovery in tourism a major factor. It is now on track to achieve 0.6% growth for 2014, for the first time seeing growth since 2008. Yet the recovery is only beginning as Greece's economy is 30% smaller than in 2008.

LyrArc Article Gist
Brazil's GDP increased by 0.34% for the 4th quarter of 2011 from the prior quarter. For the full year GDP increased by 2.7%, with an actual decline in GDP for the third quarter of 0.1%. The GDP growth for 2010 was 7.5%. The slowing economic growth reflects an overvalued currency, weak manufacturing competitiveness, and inflation. Brazil's growth will be lower than potential say analysts, and it will be tough to get to even 3.5% growth in 2012-2013. A similiar process is seen in other emerging markets. China's premier Wen Biao announced lower growth targets of 7.5% and a shift in priorities recently. And India's growth rate for 4th quarter, 2011, was 6.1%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Commerce Department says U.S. GDP was up an estimated 3.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Government spending was up in the quarter, trade helped increase growth, consumer spending and business investment was steady, with housing still weak.

LyrArc Article Gist
After over two decades of focus on GDP growth targets, China under prime minister Li Keqiang is giving more emphasis to job growth and problems of air pollution, education, and quality of life indicators. Premier Keqiang tells a news conference in Beijing in March 2014 that China needs to create 10 million new jobs each year. More bond defaults can be expected as the financial system is being changed with new rules. Li says China will no longer be "preoccupied" with GDP growth targets. Li made the new priorities clear-"The GDP growth we want is one that brings real benefits to our people, helps raise the quality and efficiency of economic development and contributes to energy conservation and environmental protection."

LyrArc Article Gist
Chinese president Xi Jinping has set strict carbon emissions targets for 2021, in his commitment to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Power cuts for industry are put in place to meet the targets. A 56% rise in coal prices is also making it less profitable for power plants to generate electricity. This will further reduce Chinese GDP growth. Banks have cut year over year GDP growth for quarters three and four to 4.7% and 3%.

LyrArc Article Gist
GDP growth for the 17 eurozone countries showed a 0.2% decline in the second quarter of 2012, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency. The German econonomy showed GDP growth in the second quarter 2012 of 0.3%, France showed zero growth for the third consecutive quarter. Italy and Spain showed negative 0.7% and negative 0.4% growth during the quarter. The ZEW indicator of sentiment in Germany fell to its lowest level reflecting German manufacturers reluctance to invest in new equipment. As the eurozone economic growth remains flat and declining for longer period, German business sees this affecting German exports. Analysts at Commerzbank and Dutch Bank ING see a further slowdown in the German economy in the second half 2012. The German economy showed GDP growth of 0.5% in the first quarter 2012, compared to the prior quarter, before declining to 0.3% in the second quarter. Further decline is now expected.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2013 was at an annualized pace of 2.5%.

LyrArc Article Gist
Abrams and De Acosta, Bellman of the WSJ look at growth and modernization in India in comparison with China and other countries. GDP per capita would take 10 years to reach the stage at which spending power of the people equals that in China today. At one point in 1980 China and South Korea were closer in GDP per capita than India. It is only now that India is accelerating towards the scale and depth of modernization done in China.  India's growth rate of over 7% is likely to surge after some of the problems in bad loans in the banking sector are cleared up. A wave of technological advances would help accelerate growth. Ease of doing business and foreign investment are on upward trend, for absorbing new technology from advanced countries. A shift to very low prices for data use with rapid development of 4G services is one of the recent achievements. Manufacturing growth remains a challenge to be tackled to create the jobs needed.  Revamping tax structures such as GST and shifting the economy towards use of electronic cash has increased revenues needed to invest in infrastructure, health and education.  As much of the potential for future growth comes from people at the lower income levels, improving social indicators such as sanitation, cleanliness, farmer incomes, universal bank accounts, universal access to health care, are steps that lay the foundation for the future. ...