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Is the market in S. Korea reflecting the bursting of the housing bubble in the USA, or is it simply a result of the Roh government's new taxes and rules for real estate such as the capital gains taxes of a shigh as 60% and the restriction on loan size so that monthly payments do not exceed 40% of monthly income. If its the new rules then it must be true that the crisis in the USA must have made the pause from the Roh measures give the market time to reflect. One factor is the oversupply from the building boom especially since the new housing had become increasingly unaffordable to average South Koreans at 100 time average income a 3 bedroom apartment cost $2 million in Seoul. A real estate Professor at Konkuk University estimates that about 1 million units will come onto the market by 2013. 2013 thats because the construction has continued even as sales have come to a near halt. Apartment prices have gone up 3% in 2008 compared to 93% in the last 5 years according to Kookmin Bank. What does this mean for the other Asian markets such as China, India and other Asia. Its not just speculation thats disappearing, but is there a sense that the market for Asian goods in the USA, especially for export powerhouses in Asia such as South Korea, is taking a hit from the credit and housing crisis in the USA. And if thats the case what does this mean for other Asian housing markets in bubble mode, consider this a Early Warning Link. See the link to the South Korean election where even corruption charges against the favored candidate are not affecting his popularity because he is seen as a candidate to who could help S. Korea overcome fears about the economic future. Comments that the current crisis is tougher for real estate and construction than the one during the Korean financial crisis of the 1990's suggest that this is something serious. ...

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How does a poor nation in Asia respond to the quagmire that is the Middle East? Iran War impact on fuel prices in Pakistan- increase in gasoline prices by 55 rupees per liter, long lines at the gasoline pump,  schools closure for 2 weeks for 40 million children, public employees put on 4 day week and half of public employees put on remote work from home.

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Cost of driving depends on where you live in the US- California (taxes and climate change fee), and mountain states (no inland supplies in West), Illinois taxes are much higher compared to the South and South East (close to refineries no taxes). Specific formulations add extra on the Eastern seaboard states  from New Hampshire to Virginia, and in the West California have requirements to reduce smog and pollution. At one time in the 1980's in Pasadena the smog would be so bad you could not see the green color on the leaves clearly. For most of the US gas prices on April 22, 2026 are around $3.62 or lower compared to $3.92 on average in March for the whole US and $5.83 in California, $5.00 in Oregon, $5.38 in Washington. Texas, Alabama, North and South Carolina at around $3.62 and Florida at $4.00. In Virginia to Maine in the North East it is around $4.00. A look at the map shows that talk of $5.00 gasoline hurting the Republicans in the midterms for Congress is incorrect because the Democrats are likely to hold on to California, Washington Oregon, their base with gas at close to $6.00 the very opposite of what they are saying. Much of it because of state policies against oil refining and climate change taxes, formulations of gasoline that cost more to address smog. The head of the distribution channel for gasoline in the US, Scott Berhang, head of fuel wholesalers marketing group Sigma says- “At some point, [the war] could translate into supply shortages. That could happen. But we’re not really there yet. I talk to my members all over the U.S. They’re not seeing any supply issues. There’s no problem getting fuel. Everything is normal.” State taxes can be as low as 9 cents in Alaska and 71 cents in California, 66 cents in Illinois. The price of gas in swing states Arizona $4.59, Pennsylvania $4.11, Michigan $3.78, Wisconsin $3.69, North Carolina $3.75, Georgia $3.57. If we use $3.61 price of Texas and most of South and close to this in all but mountain states and western states then we are slightly above the same price gasoline was sold at the pump in 2011-2014 of $3.51 per gallon. This is a significant fact considering the media talks about gasoline prices in the US as a significant cost of living issue. Which means saying Iran War is "crippling" US consumers at the pump is farfetched and totally incorrect.  ...

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Higher oil prices benefit some states in America in heart of oil country- New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, California, Alaska. Of these states Texas, New Mexico, Wyoming, North Dakota, Alaska are likely to see the most benefit because of large oil production.

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Prof. Patrice Geoffron of Universite Paris-Dauphine writes in Le Monde what is on everyone's minds- on how oil geopolitics and fossil fuel price volatility and price uncertainty what he calls fossil fuel chaos, is creating a new demand for renewable energy in Europe in 2027 to 2031. Business and industry in Europe see the value of renewable energy not in comparison with low fossil fuel prices anymore but with a fossil fuel price that can jump at any time to the $100 a barrel for some geopolitical event. Compared to this fossil chaos European business and industry can depend on a known price and known conditions for solar energy. The same thinking will be going on in business in Asia- in China and established leader in solar, in India an aspiring solar power, and in Japan. Modular nuclear reactors are also a new way to go. This means even under DJT with his skepticism for renewables the technology and production of renewables will continue and pick up pace. People will also ask whether its worth all the trouble to get fossil fuel supplies at levels that make no sense through waters of Hormuz straits- China and Jpan getting a makes no sense 90% of their imports from Hormuz, and India nearly 50%. Their are moral considerations also whether a morally conscious China, Japan and India, South Korea with much of the industrial base in the world can justify missile attacks on the scale of tens of thousands in the region and bombing just to clear Hormuz. ...

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Climate policy changes lead to $1.3 trillion savings according to analysis from DJT administration and EPA's Zeldin, with $1.1 trillion in savings from lower vehicle prices which addresses unaffordability of cars. Using the average price of a new basic Toyota Corolla the price in 2020 was $19,000 which has gone up to $23,000 a price increase of 21% by 2025 over a 5 year period. The cost in 2026 of operating a Gas powered vehicle is on average about $2500, for EV car about $1000 with $1500 in savings per year for EV's that need to be figured into the equation at gas prices that prevailed in 2024 of $4-$5 per gallon . At prices of $3 per gallon the gas costs come down to $1200 when driven 12,000 miles at 30 mpg for 400 gallons of gasoline consumed. This makes the difference between gas and EV yearly savings on gasoline costs down to about $200 from $1500. This makes gasoline powered cars attractive as car companies can reduce EV investments and pass on some of these savings in lower car prices in 2027 in exchange for favorable rules on emissions and EV transition dates.  Are there losses through the emissions and climate change? The DJT/Zeldin EPA analysis points to global climate emissions from China and India (the coal powered plants) continuing at a pace that would determine the overall change in climate for 2026-2027. In this kind of approach the goal is to make cars affordable over a 2-3 year period for US and European carmakers who would be expected to cut prices. It is about flexibility in fighting the Cost of Cars a big component in the Cost of living with housing as the next large component. It is not a long term strategy, simply one that offers a flexible approach. Will the US, Europe and Japan fall behind in EV's technology? Hybrids a focus of Japanese cars will continue to advance that technology which is becoming a preference where it is affordable for customers. Toyota for instance will have a wide lead in hybrids technology by 2030. Much of the Chinese market will have EV's and the EV's technology will advance in China in 2026-2027, and tariffs will be needed to protect European and American carmakers for 2026-2028. It is a strategy tradeoff to deal with the cost of living crisis in US, Europe and Japan answering call for a flexible approach that was also heeded by the Biden administration in relaxing carbon emissions rule changes. It will require automakers to step up and cut prices for gasoline models for buyers at the entry and lower range for affordability by 2026-2027. What about climate action? The strategy is based on the idea that climate action requires India and China (coal powered plants) on board to make a real difference so that over 2-3 years to 2027 the US, Europe and Japan need to address affordability for the lower end entry cars. There is an element of denial of climate change in parts of the DJT administration in the US but not in Europe and Japan. It is also true that leading DJT administration officials Secretary Bessent see the problem of climate as real and one that needs to be addressed yet leaving room for flexibility to tackle affordability crisis for ordinary workers with low incomes struggling to make a living. Bessent and others in the DJT administration are calling for using all of the resources to address needs of people struggling to make a living, and for a strategy for the US to get back its manufacturing capacity from China and for rebuilding the US economy after deindustrialization (caused by Clinton's huge US economy shattering failure to provide safeguards for abuse of the trading system by China in signing a poorly drafted agreement for China's entry into WTO at the end of his term in 1999-2000 just when he had fought impeachment.  ...

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Home prices in cities in the western US including California and Austin, Texas, which were overvalued are now decreasing by about 10%. Cities in the east are seeing increases of a similar amount. Some cities such as Raleigh and Nashville which increased significantly in price are now expected to decline. No collapse is expected in home prices as there is not enough supply.

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A 30 year US mortgage rate is 7.57%, it was at this level in 2000. With fewer home on the market and limited inventory, high prices for homes limiting affordability, the sales of existing US homes declined to 4.1 million in 2023 the lowest since 2008. Median home price is about $350,000 today.

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Color maps of home rental price increases by county regions in the US are shown in this report in the Washington Post. Though rent prices increased by 19% since 2019 prices increased for rent by only 1% in 2024, according to Washington Post analysis of rent data from CoStar Group. See how rents have increased by county regions in color maps. Price increases are cooling off, in some cases declining, says this report. US president Biden has proposed a limit of 5% for increases in home rentals. Vice President Kamala Harris has proposed help for families paying more than 30% of household income for home rentals.

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Prices in Britain are expected to go up with Brexit. New figures show prices up 1.2% in the year to November 2016, up from 0.9% in the year to October, according to the Office of National Statistics. Economists expect this to go up rapidly to 2% by the end of March 2017, to reflect higher prices for oil following the sharp drop in the value of the pound. A big increase in clothing imported from overseas, as well as other consumer prices are also pushing up inflation.

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During the coronavirus the market is pushing some buyers out of the market while other buyers are willing to pay higher prices. Limited stock, cheap financing, and low fuel prices are pushing buyers into more expensive models with higher prices. The average new vehicle sold in August in the U.S. was at $35,420 according to J.D. Power. The auto market is following the housing market in this sense where limited supply is pushing up prices. Auto sales declined by 20% in August. Younger buyers are being priced out of the new vehicle market and auto makers are focusing on higher margin vehicles.

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Pricing of hotels in Rome Italy where $100 is a hostel, $200 a budget hotel, luxury $700 a night an up. Dynamic pricing means a hotel can cost $400 in the summer and $60 or $100 in September. This is true of mjor toruist destinations and  major cities in Europe. Staying away from the city in a leafy suburb can get you a normally priced room on Booking.com as shown here in the range of $100-$200 and it is a good idea to stay away from the bustle and crowds. Rome's average nightly rate April 19 is $300 a night up about 15% over 2025.  This tells you the first rule in travel in European Union is to choose destinations which are not the big cities, and away from the seasonal rush and crowds. The advice here is to look for residential neighborhoods (less costly and more peaceful), plan 6 months  for peak season  to get a decent price and a better shot at getting a decent hotel in Europe.

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More than a retreat it gives the US, EU, India, China and the nations in Asia and Africa, Latin America most affected by higher oil prices and lower economic growth a time to pause and rethink dependence on the Gulf region for oil supplies. It is not mentioned in the media yet there has to be a link between the US president's visit to Beijing and Beijing's support for a normalized US China relationship, and offering its support for a settlement. This gives EU, China, India, Japan, and poorer nations in Africa, Asia, such as Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, some relief from reduced access to oil supplies. US is also planning a supply from Venezuela to India to take pressure off oil supplies in Asia by offering Venezuela as an alternative source. China is in many ways joining the US to bring about a denuclearized Middle East, doing it in a quieter way with Iranian public opinion making a shift to put its economic development ahead of missile development. As the two sides have different interpretations and it is still only a Memorandum of Understanding it is not a situation where the US is sending billions of dollars to support the military in Iran as Obama had done. Attention will shift to the Iranian economy over the next 12 months.  US conveys that it has nothing to gain from wrecking the Iranian economy or nation as the Iranian people if avote were held today would clearly choose putting the economy first by huge margins considering the widespread protests in Iran in 2025 that started this crisis. The US naval blockade was effective and is always an option, with US and partners having greater experience in the situation presented by the narrow straits in Hormuz. Arab partners also acted with restraint and is itself an opportunity for Iran to change direction. China's making cuts of 3 million barrels a day in oil supplies from Hormuz is itself along with acceleration of renewable energy in both China and India is one of the dividends of this crisi. Another is the gradual shift to alternative supplies from other regions of the world so that Hromuz region can no longer dictate oil prices in the world. Accelerating Venezuelan and UAE, US, other oil and gas  supply growth will also put increase supply and renewables reduce  demand growth as a result of the crisis to break the hold on oil prices of the oil cartels of Qatar, and Saudis. As a transition fuel oil can be be kept below $50 a barrel, not at prices at the whims of the princes in the Middle East at the expense of the people of the Arab world from Egypt the most populous and Tunisia, Morocco, to the Muslim nations such as Turkey and Pakistan,Iran itself which bore the brunt of this Hormuz crisis. The US has several priorities including in its relations with oil cartels dominated Mexico that  brings drugs and people across US borders, with other nations in EU and Asia that have benefitted through deindustrialization in the US leaving it poorer across a vast part of America. Advancing objectives in one area such as denuclearization does not mean not addressing priorities at home and in relations with other regions. China shares American interest in denuclearization of the Middle East this should now be put to the test. It is an entirely different situation in 2026 than what weak leaders from Bush to Obama allowed to happen by  wars in the Middle East - the US naval blockades of 2025/2026 are entirely different in cost in terms of men and dollar investment and used to convey America's determination not to waste vital resources of the Nation. The best policy is not to pursue policy for absolute wins but make intelligent choices and in some situations pause to reflect on the best course of action and other ways to reach goals. By getting China and the US as world powers for denuclearization even though this is not vocally said, both gain and both will come up with solutions. ...

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The cost of living crisis in US continues in November 2025. Some relief in the price of gasoline for cars, grocery bills still high, car purchase new or used prices very high, pharmaceutical prices are through the roof.

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This WSJ report on developers and home buyers in Tianjin show how the government policy of controlling speculation in housing prices affects ordinary home buyers when prices drop. A homebuyer from Hebei province hoped to find a better life in Tianjin, better education for her children. She used her entire savings and borrowed from relatives to pull together funds to buy an apartment for 1.5 million yuan. She is desperate paying the mortgage of 3700 yuan, works several part time jobs, and is mortified at the drop in price of the apartment, in this report. For decades housing prices were going up, now the government has sent clear messages that housing speculation has to stop and home prices for the first time are moderating to increases of about 4% a year and are falling in some cities including Beijing, Tianjin, and Guangzhou. The governments message is that people should use apartments for living, not for speculative price increase and profit. Local governments have their own reasons to prop up this speculation as they have for decades now depended on land sales to meet economic growth targets, a situation unique to China, which has financed a lot of the local infrastructure including overspending. ...

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Iran peace talks in Islamabad on April 12 and Iranian refusal on nuclear weapons development and ballistic missiles leading to collapse in 21 hours of talks. Vance leaves talks and US plans to impose a naval blockade of Iran. This report by the Guardian shows that media coverage has created a sense of delusion that the world including the poorest countries in the world in Asia, in Latin America and even in Europe, and the industrialized countries will somehow allow the free navigation for oil and other raw materials to be interrupted by any nation. There are protests all over the world about increase in fuel prices, some of this affects LPG supplies for cooking in countries with a population of 1.4 billion people (India) many times that of the entire Middle East. Tens of millions of migrant workers head back to their homes in poorest states in India as LPG cylinder prices quadruple and are in short supply April 13, 2026.It also affects China and Japan which are dependent on Hormuz,  not the US which exports oil and does not seek to gain from oil prices. Posturing by the media and European governments on this issue has created this delusion that this is about US actions, when the US is only acting in the interests of all nations to keep the planet safer from dangerous nuclear proliferation in the region most torn by repeated wars in the last 50 years. Some of the language used about attacks on power plants has become a reason to justify such reporting to present aggressive ballistic missile development and nuclear weapons development in Iran in a benign way, becoming oblivious of how it affects the lives of billions of people around the world, as the Middle Eastern region a small fraction of the world's population (less than 7%) and a small fraction of the planet's surface (less than 6%) continues to operate in a way that is destructive for the lives of people around the world.   ...

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Rising home prices are leading to higher property taxes in Colorado. A surge of new people coming to Colorado has meant higher property taxes of much as 40% for those already living in the state. David Chen talked to residents in the state and found a retiree, a former X-Ray technician retired for 20 years, facing a 20% rise in property taxes in Littleton, Colorado, and having to sell some of her stuff to meet the higher cost. For retirees in Colorado and across the Rocky mountain states- where people have moved to from California and the Northeast  paying higher prices for homes- living on Social Security checks is particularly hard these days. In Montana property taxes went up by 40-50% in some counties in 2023. Democrat Governor Polis says just because your home price goes up by 40% does't mean you have 40% more cash to pay taxes, your income may be up 10-12%. For retirees on Social Security checks alone it is only the inflation coverage in those checks. The situation is also true for Arizona and Utah with many newcomers and the trend for hybrid work adding to it. ...

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Big changes are expected in energy markets after 2026 following the end of the war with Iran, the naval blockade and the Hormuz straits closure. Even when the Shipping returns to Hormuz there will be continued uncertainty and prospect of conflict. As a result China, India, Japan and the US and EU will look for new sources of supply in Latin America for oil and gas including in Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, and in Venezuela. This NYT Analysis  confirms the shift to renewables will accelerate after 2026 with 2-3 years return on investment for renewables, and in 2026 wind+solar+nuclear now generating more electricity worldwide than gas. OPEC stranglehold on oil prices is weakening with UAE's exit from OPEC, and the US+ Venezuela+UAE expanding production. This will benefit poorer countries in the world in Asia, Africa and Latin America, Middle Income countries like China and India, as well as US and EU through lower prices for the new overall energy mix, with a higher component of renewables from every year 2027-2030. Lower priced component for oil possibly at $50 a barrel holding steady to 2030. From this perspective Hormuz's importance will decline over this period to the point that the world's wealth sucked up for far too long in the Middle East through the twin mechanisms of  high oil prices and decades of wars will be shifted back to infrastructure in the EU, US, India and China, Brazil and Indonesia. For the poor countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, China and others this is a big deal because instead of the wealth going to princes in the Persian Gulf  it will benefit people in Egypt, Arab countries such as Morocco and Tunisia,Turkey, Pakistan and India, China. Long delayed infrastructure rebuilding in US and European Union can now take place.The shift and trend to renewable energy as a major component of the energy mix of over 50%-60% in India could be expected by 2030 and have a major impact on climate change. (India has already crossed 50% of its energy from renewable sources). China will have installed half of the new renewable energy capacity added by 2030 and this too will add to the fight against climate change. Overall this combination of events and changes underway are overwhelmingly constructive and are not anticipated in this way by most of the world's media including the NY, which see slower growth when the opposite is now the case with accelerating and steady growth expected 2027-2030, and 2030-2035. For the US and EU it could not come at a more opportune time with the determination to invest at home and reindustrialize, build new infrastructure, for India to build a modern country by 2040, and for China or Japan not to get stuck in middle income status with continued modernization to 2040. For the poorest countries to work with these major nations to improve standards of living. For the US it also means the end of the border migrations flows that happened in 2025 taken to the next stage in 2026 and 2027 ending all drug flows across its borders with Mexico- as more lives are lost to fentanyl and other illegal drugs substances (1.25 million since 1999) than were lost in the Korean War (36,000 deaths), Vietnam  War (58,000 deaths) and World War 1 (116,000 deaths) World War II (418,000) all 4 wars combined. Issues of unfair trade deindustrialized the US. This coupled with drugs destroyed small towns and communities (that were based on manufacturing and lost factories) across the US for over 3 decades. The tackling of these issues will also add to the general sense of well being of the people in the US- and also in the European Union. The modernization underway in China and India+Indonesia+Brazil is also part of these changes, promise a rising tide that will lift all boats if we continue together to carefully select the right path ahead and chart the course clear eyed and clear on purpose. ...

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Shiller says the underlying problems in the economy such as the sociological factors that led to overoptimism about real estate prices and the dot com stocks play out over many years. They are lost in the headlines about the Fed or some short term developments that get cited along with the bad economic news about unemployment. Yet these underlying factors such as the bubble phenomena in housing are what makes these problems so intractable. The bubble in home prices caused a 131 percent rise in home prices in the period 1997-2005, 85% in inflation adjusted terms, according to the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. The long term expectations of price increases well into the indefinite future lag the price decreases as the bubble bursts, even as the expectations decrease. For 2012 the Case-Shiller survey shows expectations are for a 1% increase in prices. With the increase in the personal savings rate from about 1% in 2005 to about 5% today, Shiller says consumer spending will not support a strong recovery....