LyrArc Article Gist
Iranian missiles and drones flying low and close to the ground avoided detection by Saudi and American air defense systems. The missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities stopping about half of the Saudi oil production. Iranian cruise missile technology was used for the attack, according to U.S. officials. The attack also showed how vulnerable the oil supplies from this region are to disruption. The U.S. is not dependent on Saudis for oil as it has increased its production from shale. China, Japan, South Korea and India are dependent on Saudi oil supplies. Yet the U.S. is shouldering a greater burden for ensuring reliable supplies to Asian countries, something the Trump administration sees it should be compensated for. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil hurt its economy, resulting in actions taken by Iran to disrupt Saudi oil supplies. The Saudi intervention in Yemen is another source of tensions in the region. The Trump administration says it is not interested in endless wars in the region, yet its tougher oil sanctions on Iran are pulling it into the conflict in unpredictable ways. China, India, and other countries had sought sanctions waivers to import Iranian oil, and see the sanctions as hurting oil supplies. India with limited supplies of its own was affected by the oil sanctions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Aubrey McClendon, was one of the pioneers of the shale oil boom in the U.S. His penchant for taking excessive risk caused severe setbacks in 2008 with the global financial crisis, and in 2015 with the collapse of oil prices. In 2016 he was indicted by a grand jury in Oklahoma for illegal practices, and he died shortly thereafter in a car crash.

LyrArc Article Gist
Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Saudis and Russia fail to reach an agreement on cutting production in response to lower demand after the coronavirus crisis, resulting in Saudi decision to boost output and cut prices.  Saudi prince Salman asks ministries to lower budgets for expenditures. Saudi oil production was boosted by 300,000 barrels a day (bbd) to 12.3 million bbd. Saudis also cut oil price which is at about $34 a barrel on March 9, 2020 for Brent crude. Meanwhile behind the rhetoric from Saudis a mediation effort is being made by Mr. Falih from the Saudi side with Mr. Novak of Russia. Mr. Falih is minister of investments. He was the oil minister who negotiated an agreement with Russia in 2016.  The U.S. under president Trump sees oil price reduction as good for the economy in the face of the coronavirus impact. The U.S. oil shale industry will be affected with more bankruptcies, as many companies cannot operate at $30 a barrel. The Saudi budget requires a price of $60 which is why the Saudis favored production cuts but failed to convince Russia. Russia sees no need for production cuts at this time. Russia is also better positioned to handle the oil price decline as its budget is less dependent on oil prices. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A Pemex brokered deal for $5 billion in Argentine bonds as compensation to Spain's Repsol for its 51% stake in YPF. The Argentine government nationalized YPF saying Repsol was not investing enough in developing oil and gas reserves. With the discovery of shale gas reserves estimated to be third only to reserves in the U.S. and China and large shale oil reserves, the Argentine government is seeking foreign investment in the oil industry. A settlement with Repsol, with the help of Mexico's Pemex which has a 10% stake in YPF, enables Argentina to seek technology and investment from western oil companies. Chevron has invested in the Vaca Muerta shale field in Argentina.

LyrArc Article Gist
Trapping underground heat to create energy is a way shale oil and fracking companies are trying to create clean energy. Chevron, BP and Devon Energy are part of a group of companies investing hundreds of millions of dollars in geothermal projects. New technologies that can drill thousands of feet below the earth's surface make it possible to reach more geothermal energy inside the earth's surface. This could power 65 million homes in the US by 2050, according to the Energy Department.

LyrArc Article Gist
The inflation worse than Germany in the Great Depression, and the collapse of the economy made worse by US sanctions of Democratic and Republican administrations on Venezuela's Maduro regime has led to the largest migration in the history of Latin America. About 7 million refugees leaving a country of about 28 million people or a fourth of the population in a large oil producing country. Socialist Policies of Bolivarist military leaders promoting populism such as oil at pennies a gallon led to the collapse spiralling inflation, and as relations worsened with the US and its oil sector was neglected. US sanctions played a part by 2012. Yet the economy worsened with further deterioration and stronger sanctions under the Trump administration by 2017.  The situation is such that even the US and both parties had never anticipated this, and not the middle and educated, or the working classes in Venezuela. Such a massive failure has never happened in Latin America in its whole history in the twentieth century. Considering the scale of this disaster, actions of all parties in Venezuela, and the political parties in the US have at every step exacerbated the situation. For further interest on this topic use search term Venezuela. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Oil prices drop below $38 by mid-December 2015, as the Saudis continue to push prices down further by continuing production increases. No change is planned for 2016 and analysts expect low oil prices into 2016. At $38 a barrel it becomes uneconomical for most shale oil producers to operate in the U.S. About 50,000 jobs are lost in Texas and 250,000 jobs worldwide. This is a boost for large oil importers such as India, Japan, and Europe. China also stands to benefit from low oil prices. Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Russia have the most to lose from an extended period of low oil prices. Politics in the Middle East also may play a part in decisions as the Saudis oppose intervention in Syria and Iraq by Russia and Iran. Rising shale oil production in the U.S. could also be one of the additional targets of Saudi policy. One consequence is that OPEC is divided with the Saudis going their own way.

LyrArc Article Gist
BP took a writedown of $5 billion for the second quarter of 2012, for some U.S. refineries, a suspended Alaska oil project and shale gas resources. Of this $2.68 billion was for the U.S. refining business. And $1.50 billion was for the suspension of the Liberty oil project in Alaska because of higher costs. BP's clean replacement cost profit was $3.69 billion, a decline of 35% from the $5.71 billion the prior year. BP's writedown of shale gas assets was because of very low natural gas prices, a situation faced also by Shell and Exxon. Total oil and gas production declined by 7.4% to 2.275 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. The extended maintenance program and major repair and improvement work after the 2011 oil spill led to increased costs and lower production in the North Sea, Angola, and the Gulf of Mexico.

LyrArc Article Gist
Violation of international law or tacit approval of drug states and suppression of the election results in Venezuela- position taken by Oxford's Dill and Germany's Steinmeier is itself controversial. Merz's is realistic. For those concerned about international law is it restricted to any particular period? Then the British policy in China supported by the other powers Japan, Russia, Germany and France to suppress the Boxer rebellion in 1901 and expand Treaty ports that forced opium on China in the period 1850 to the 1930's was not just a egregious violation, horrendous violation of basic human rights on a scale unimaginable in modern times. Much of the prosperity of the Netherlands and Britain, France was achieved through such policy in Asia. Yet Oxford's Dill and Steinmeier have chosen not to look at European history and the Empires of Europe in Asia and Africa for 300 years since 1700. By comparison Venezuelan action comes after the great patience of well meaning people, and the silence of elites in the US and Europe about massive migration encouraged by the regime in Venezuela of one third of its population about 9 million people to neighboring countries including the US, and suppression of free elections, complete mismanagement leading to 150% inflation destroying its economy.  It was not only these elites in the US and Europe that were responsible through their silence, but also the Bush and Obama wars in the Middle East which sapped the resources of the United States. Why is this happening when the Venezuelan people are the main benificiaries of the action taken by the US president to send in its military. All oil sales revenue will no longer go to a corrupt "drugs" state but be used to directly help the Venezuelan people achieve a better standard of living, bring down inflation  and invest in modernization, in these unusual circumstance a program run by Bessent at US Treasury. Those who dislike the unconventional but well meaning style of the US president and his occasional poor choice of words, find every opportunity for criticism even ignoring facts and common sense. Under Chavez and Maduro the Venezuelan economy was simply mismanaged to the point of being destroyed and an affluent country reduced to poverty and inflation so bad that one third or 9 milllion people left for neighboring countries. On this Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier have only this to say- it is somebody's else's problem. we will remain silent. Similarly on introducing nuclear weapons in the Middle East -where most nation states have intermittent wars and economic mismanagement for the last 50 years the artificial states from the Ottoman Empire of Syria and Iraq, Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sudan every state impoverished by war and economic mismanagement - Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier in Germany also have only this to say- it is somebody else's problem not ours, we will remain silent. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The supply of shale oil in the U.S. is changing the landscape for Mexican crude exports to the U.S. especially light Olmeca crude. Mexico's exports of crude oil declined to 881,000 barrels a day in 4 weeks through Jan 10, compared to 1.8 million barrels in Feb 2013, according to the Energy Information Administration. The Keystone Pipeline from Canada could also impact Mexico's exports.

LyrArc Article Gist
In the end only concerted pressure from the U.S. including the personal intervention of president Trump, calls from Republican senators to Prince Abdulaziz, Saudi energy minister, salvaged a deal for OPEC+ oil cuts. The Saudis insisted Mexico cut production by 300,000 barrels a day, Mexico stood firm at 100,000 barrels a day. As the Mexican energy negotiator Ms Nahle withdrew to call Mexican president Lopez Obrador, the Saudi energy minister called this "disrespectful." Then president Trump intervened with calls and offered to make up with additional 300,000 barrels a day of cuts from the U.S. North Dakota senator called Prince Abdulaziz and stated that it could affect the U.S.-Saudi relationship if the Saudis did not come to an agreement. The agreement is for 23 countries to in total withdraw 9.7 billion barrels a day from the market, or 13% of world production. Oil production is expected to fall by as much as 30 million barrels a day in April 2020 as a result of the pandemic so it is not clear how much this will raise oil prices, yet it averts a complete collapse of oil prices from the $22 today when markets open on Monday April 13, 2020.  The U.S. Canada, Brazil and G20 countries outside OPEC will make a combined 3.7 million barrels a day in cuts. Saudis, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates combined will cut 2 million barrels a day above their quota.  In addition to warning both sides Saudis and Russia to come to an agreement, president Trump threatened to retaliate to protect U.S. producers from very low oil prices sending many into bankruptcy. Prince Abdulaziz took a tough stand with Mexico and other OPEC countries to present a unified stand. He is the son of the Saudi king and took the energy ministry in fall 2019. He has had difficulty in managing OPEC plus Russia called OPEC+ as its new chief with divergent views from small producers such as Angola and large producers such as Russia. At a conference in February he continued the standoff with Russia saying Russia would regret not making the production cuts he was calling for. The split with Russia after a 3 year collaboration for cuts ended in an all out price war right in the middle of a pandemic.  The Russians underestimated the size and impact of the pandemic. The Saudis took a firm position. Only president Trump's swift and active intervention and offering to make up Mexico's share of cuts saved the day for all oil producing countries, who would all be severely hurt by sinking oil prices below $20 a barrel.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Chief of TechMet a company in mineral resource development says that it will take years to dislodge China's dominance in rare metals mining and development for metals critical to technologies in car batteries, wind turbines, cellphones. This includes nickel and cobalt for car batteries.Last week president Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and authorizing use of the Defense Production Act to speed development of mines. The U.S. imports 80% of its rare earth elements from China, with further supply coming indirectly from the country. For 14 of 35 critical types of minerals the U.S. has no domestic production. Gallium for light emitting diodes in cell phones is one of these metals. Half of Barite a metal used in hydraulic fracturing for shale oil is imported from China. To get some idea of the neglect in U.S.policy in these area under three administrations, the U.S. in the 1980's was the largest producer of rare earth metals and the technology to process them. Today there is only one mine the Mountain Pass mine in California, and no processing plants. It takes about 10 years to develop a mine. Just as in health care products essential to tackle the virus the U.S has found its manufacturing and technology base left in woeful shape after manufacturing and mining were neglected in a failed policy. Under the guise of globalization corporations transferred essential manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to China, without understanding the importance these products played in the life of countries, and governments neglected to help local manufacturers and mining companies. Governments play a critical role as China has done by providing loans and grants to develop the national industrial base. Tariffs and quotas are also used to promote local development of the manufacturing base and mining base. Another factor is that investors are more able to invest in these companies when the government take some of the risk with its help and active support. With the Trump executive order comes a new awareness in Canada, Australia, and European Union which are now taking active steps to nurture and develop the local resources. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Shell reported a 60% drop in profit for the second quarter of 2013, after taking a $2 billion writedown on the value of its liquids rich shale assets. Excluding the charges, Shell's profit was $4.6 billion, declining 20% on the prior year quarter. Shell has the largest investments among oil companies in unconventional sources of oil and gas in the U.S. It is producing 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from unconventional sources, including 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from shale at end of 2012. Shell expects the exploration and production division for the Americas to remain at a loss during the second half of the year because of current oil and gas prices. Shell is now conducting a strategic review to sell around half of its main nine unconventional oil and gas assets in North America.

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden puts forward a sweeping clean energy plan that could zero out US emissions by 2050. It calls for paying utilities to make a rapid transition to clean energy, and financial penalties for utilities that are slow. Tariffs would be put in place on imports from oil and gas producers for leaking greenhouse gases into the environment from wells, pipes and tanks. Wind and solar units would get new tax incentives. Biden through this plan would achieve the pledge of clean energy so that the US would help eliminate emissions from US power generation by 2035. It also mimics state requirements for higher proportions of energy from solar and wind, other clean sources. The Biden program would invest $300 billion, on a scale that is needed to tackle the challenge.

LyrArc Article Gist
As its economy slows and facing high debt levels, China benefits by an estimated $18 billion a month from lower oil prices in 2015. The estimate is from Starfort Holdings, investment and private equity group. The estimates as China benefits from lower prices of all commodities, including oil, are of about $250 billion annually as China replenishes its stocks of commodities. With $12 million barrels imported daily China is a major emerging market beneficiary, along with India, of the drop in oil prices. Continuing pressure on prices from the expected resilience in shale oil production in the U.S. with learning and the development of new production methods means the benefits are likely to continue. China has also not renegotiated price points in deals made earlier at higher prices with China and Venezuela, as it pursues its foreign interests. Stockpiling of grains and edible oils are being increased by 33% in 2015 by $24.7 billion.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's state owned China Development Bank signed an agreement to finance a new pipeline that will carry 600,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan and Colombian oil through jungle and the Andean mountains to the Pacific coast. Colombia plans to shift its focus to export much of its 1 million barrels a day of oil production to China. Talks also were held with China on developing central Colombian coking coal reserves and building a railway to the Pacific coast. Colombian plans are based on slowing demand for Colombian oil in the U.S., with increased supplies of natural gas and shale gas in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
A sense that president Putin may have seriously "miscalculated" the scale of Ukrainian resistance and that he may not be getting the right information from subordinates. The conflict does not appear to be in Russia's long term interest, making it weaker with western sanctions.

For EU the shift away from Russian oil supplies shifts to supplies from Qatar and other nations and use of LNG terminals. The US and EU will likely see a more effective shift to renewable energy after the Ukraine war. Increased funding for defense in US and EU and the funding for social goals with a wealth tax planned in the US.

China also sees an impact on its economy and long term growth with sharply reduced access to western technology and research, and restructuring of supply chains to be shorter and focus more on South and Southeast Asia, less on China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Even though volatility is high in stock markets, the U.S. stock market has rebounded to levels in August 2019. The level on March 10, 2020 after effects of the coronavirus on the global economy was for the DJIA average in the U.S. to be at the level it was on August 14, 2019, as shown on the graph in the WSJ, in the neighborhood of 25,000. In the last quarter of 2019 there were steep gains in the Dow Jones averages that could not be fully explained, these gains have disappeared. Considering the suddenness of the crisis from the coronavirus in China, and the double whammy of impact on global manufacturing supply chains of first the tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., followed by the coronavirus, the impact on stock markets seen in this overall context is comprehensible. Particularly the sharp gains in the last quarter of 2019 which now appear to be muted. There is also some good news for economies such as China and India, which are large oil importing countries, and the rest of Asia, in the sharp drop in oil prices that helps cushion some of its impact on the global economy. For the U.S. this also happens at a time when the economy is in much stronger shape than at any time in the last ten years. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the U.S., supplying more than 2 million barrels of oil imports a day. Here the heads of the U.S. and Canadian Chambers of Commerce argue that a new pipeline from Alberta, Canada to Texas would supply an additional 1.1 million barrels of oil a day. The pipeline project- called the Keystone XL pipeline- has been under review by the U.S. government since 2008. An Energy Dept study in February 2011 found that the project should go ahead, but it is being held up for further environmental studies by the Obama administration. The delays may be the result of opposition to Canadian oil sands development. At the same time significant progress has been made in reducing the environmental impact of oil sands development. About 80% of the water used in the process is now being recycled. Tailing ponds containing waste product from the oil shale process are also being reclaimed for green land and replanted with trees and shrubs. TransCanada says the Keystone XL pipeline could create 20,000 new American jobs for construction, and 250,000 jobs in the long run. Strict environmental standards can be followed say Donahue and Beatty, because the U.S. is partnering with Canada....

LyrArc Article Gist
Fomer U.S. Census Bureau officials Gordon Green and John Coder released a study by the firm Sentier Research. The study looks at two groups of Census data from 2005-2007 and 2008-2010, which has information on interviews with 3.5 million households for each period. The study shows 38 states with household income declining. The losses in income are greatest in the midwestern states affected by the loss of manufacturing industries. Incomes fell by 5.7% in the midwestern region of Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. Oil, shale and other energy producing states- Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas- saw incomes rise by 0.3% from 2007 to 2010. This report looks at pretax income levels in 2010 dollars for all 50 states and 297 metropolitan areas. Michael Greenstone, professor of environmental economics at MIT, says the regional shocks from the economic crisis can last for a couple of decades. The Midwestern states showed median annual household household income decrease by 4.7% to $49,710 and the Southern states showed a drop of 2.5% to $47,389. Nationally for the U.S. the drop in annual median household income from 2007 to 2010 was 3.5% to $51,287. Another finding of the study was that of the top ten metropolitan areas with the highest percentile of incomes, nine were in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey, a region where the financial industry is based. Silicon Valley in California comes in at No. 10 in this list of metropolitan areas. In terms of growth of households reflecting migration patterns and new families the Mountain States of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, and Nevada did as well as the oil patch states of Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, showing an increase in households from 2007 to 2010 of 5.8%....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. oil exports are expected to average 1 million barrels a day for all of 2017. In 2016 in some months the average was 1 million barrels a day. U.S. oil exports make up 1% of global oil volumes, yet the added inventory has helped keep prices in the range of $46  to $55 a barrel in mid 2017. American crude is at a $2.50 discount over the Brent crude benchmark, making it profitable to export to far away locations. Back-haul economics also helps as tankers coming back from the middle east can now take crude back with a stop in Europe. Oil exports go to China and Europe. Production declines in China have led to China importing from the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
The contrast between modernizing, developing East and South Asia ( from Mumbai to Shanghai) with war torn desolate West Asia (from Tehran and Baghdad to Kabul and Islamabad) is so striking today that it is something to reflect upon for wisdom and understanding. UAE support for Sudan's RSF Rapid Strike Force and Saudi support for the military - fracturing of Sudan, errors piled on errors led to the civil war in Sudan. A civil war in a country neighboring Saudi Arabia just across the Red Sea. Saudis and UAE were on opposite sides briefly after UAE pulled out of Sudan, UAE acting in this way to object against Saudis requesting US sanctions on UAE.  Once close partners have moved apart as they spread their influence in different conflicts in the Middle East.  This has not created a region that can grow economically without the disruptions of conflict in the way other parts of Asia have emerged to modernize the countries as in Taiwan, Korea, China and India. In neighboring Pakistan another conflict has emerged as partners split, with looming conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yemeni Houthis are in conflict with the US and affect the Persian Gulf shipping lanes.  Iran with it's pursuit of weapons programs and nuclear weapons is using capital that is badly needed to improve the economic situation on arms buildup for the regime and for allies in Lebanon and Yemen, leading to protests and crisis. In this way the Middle East has failed to use oil wealth to modernize the entire region. Much of it was wasted in Iraq and now in Iran by policies that led to war and regional conflicts not modernization and technological transformation that has happened in Asia. The US has inadvertently becoming a partner to this as when the Obama administration helped fund Iran's economic rebuilding which was instead used to fund the military, and before that the Reagan administration support for Iraqi socialist ideology regime. The challenge for China was how to modernize after the Japanese invasion and civil war. In Korea it was how to modernize after the civil war. In India it is how to modernize with a smaller neighboring country Pakistan promoting terrorism and wars now with China's support. In Asia all these challenges were and are being met to steadily and persistently modernize to European standards with a singleminded focus and determination to meet the aspirations of the people with the US business working alongside Taiwanese, Korean, Chinese, and Indian governments and private industry. In West Asia various ideological (Iraq), military (Pakistan), religious Shiite (Iran), religious + modernizing (Saudi +UAE) with erratic leaders and little representation of the people, has destroyed the tranquillity of the region and destroyed democratic forms of government, destroyed bottom up education and health of the population except for priviliged groups in countries in the region of West Asia. Involvement of US and Europe or Russia in West Asia has led to distintegration of Soviet Union (Boris Yeltsin) and deindustrialization of US and Europe (Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations) with business shipping out manufacturing to China while wars engaged the attention of American and European elites in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The entire west Asian scene for 1950-2030 has been a disaster, one massive disaster for all involved. The contrast with East Asia and South Asia reminds one of the words from Robert Frost of New England in Mowing- that reflects on the enduring value of honest labour. "My long scythe whispered to the ground. What was it it whispered? It was no dream of the gift of idle hours, or easy gold at the hand of fay or elf: anything less would have seemed too weak to the earnest love that laid the swale in rows. The fact is the sweetest dream that labour knows. My long scythe whispered and left the hay to make." ...