LyrArc Article Gist
Russian seaborne crude shipments are up 18% as of June 11 over the prior year, Iran's shipments up even more by 45%. The result is increased supplies even though the Saudis tried to increase oil prices by limiting production. China's economy is slowing and faces headwinds that will not go away anytime soon of debt close to 290% of GDP higher than US or Europe. And lower imports by the US and EU as they correct the mistakes of overconcentration in China. The European Union faces high inflation and a mild recession. This is cutting demand as supplies increase. It will help the Biden administration as it seeks to give all Americans a fair chance to improve their standard of living, by reducing the cost of living and investing in the economic potential of the country in a way no other adminstration has done in the last 40 years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Cost of living action on oil and food prices, and wage gains by workers, the overall economic expansion and jobs, will play a role in Northampton County, Saginaw County and Hillsborough County, in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire. Other counties in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin affected by the same issues and hurt by the demanufacturing in the US from the Reagan era, the sense of falling behind in places like Bethlehem, Pennsylvania will determine the direction of the US in 2024.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tomahawk missile transfer by the US to Ukraine would not change the war on the front lines in Ukraine as both sides are entrenched in their positions with not much progress. What it would do is provide capabilities for strikes on oil facilities that cause problems for the economy and standards of living. The idea is to get Russia to the table for serious talks knowing it will have to also make some concessions. US is thinking about how to do this to get to talks without turning this into an escalation. This is why the DJT meeting with Putin in Budapest is planned.

LyrArc Article Gist
Canadian steel and lumber industries get government aid, as talks to end US tariffs are halted over an ad on Reagan misrepresenting him on tariffs by Ontario state.  Canada's steel and lumber industries will get the aid in the form of railway costs cut in half with rail subsidies, and tariffs on US steel imports into Canada to reduce domestic steel costs for other industries. Stellantis shifts car production for a new Jeep from suburban Toronto to Illinois, GM cut a shift at a pickup plant and closed a electric van plant in Ontario. Not all imports to the US from Canada face tariffs. Other products enter the US from Canada under a free trade agreement USMCA that went into effect July 1 2020. Canada is also shifting policy under Carney's Liberals on climate change, as it seeks to reorient its economy to export oil to China and India- a new pipeline is now approved for oil and gas to be shipped across the country from Alberta. Since it's independence with Dominion status in 1867 Canada's economy has struggled with the idea of building a economy separate from the US so that trade between the northeastern Canada and Northeastern US which is next to each other is foregone for trade with distant provinces in the western states such as Alberta and British Columbia. In Brazil Lula's Worker's Party is also slowing efforts on climate change for the economy as it approves oil and gas projects in the Amazon, at the same time as it holds COP30 at Belem port in the Amazon. Even Biden had shown flexibility on the economy to support cost of living measures that are in conflict with climate change action. In DJT's second term climate change action has taken a back seat to cost of living concerns when a large majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Much of the economic debate by economists in the US takes place separated by walls from the reality of huge inequalities in the country such as half of retirees having zero savings, the cost of living surge, job insecurity, and two third of children in 4th grade no able to pass the ACT test for reading comprehension. Here economists at the US Fed are cited in a discussion about ultra low interest rates that hurt savers and in particular retirees who number 57 million. Ultra low interest rates lead to wasteful use of capital and misallocation of capital in the US, and were largely a result of the effort to correct for the mistakes of the financial industry causing the crisis of 2009. The US was the leading economy in th world and the standards of living in the US were higher during the post war period 1950-1990 that covered the Kennedy-LBJ, Reagan administrations when inflation was accepted at 4% and interest rates were for the most part around 5-8% on average. As Krugman points in a recent NYT column in August 2023 Fed research has been wrong in estimating the right inflation rate for the economy. The best rate for the economy requires knowledge of and careful judgement about the situation of different parts of the American population, of workers and families that are struggling with the cost of living, and half of retirees with no savings. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Men all in their 20's and at different points in their careers, from all parts of the US are interviewed by the WSJ 6 months into the DJT administration to see what they think of performance so far.

Young men as a demographic group are optimistic about the economy even with high interest rates restricting housing access. Young men supported DJT in 2024 by 15 percentage points 57% to 42% giving the president an edge. Overall on foreign affairs messy international disputes, on immigration and hurdles in resolving returning migrants to home countries, they are considerate about what difficulties the president faces. They are optimistic about president DJT and his ability to handle tariffs, inflation, and the economic growth that will improve their lives in the coming years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Is the UK government committed to keeping the triple lock on pensions that help pensioners, retirees, keep up with the cost of living. Liz Truss the UK prime minister waffles on this issue by first saying yes, then no, then yes. The US just announced social security payments to retirees will increase by 8.6% in 2023. The triple lock is a way of saying that pensions will be increased each year by the maximum of inflation or average earnings, and more than 2.5%. With inflation at over 10% UK pensions would be increased similar to the US, slightly higher by 10%. This is critical to meet needs of older Britons or Americans, and similar policies are being followed in France, Germany and other EU countries. Housing costs are rising very rapidly. This leaves less for food and heating. This means some older Britons or Americans are missing meals. In Britain a TUC report shows one of seven Britons missing meals because of income not keeping up with the cost of living crisis, which is now number one on people's minds.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. president Trump says he will rely on Congressional legislation on update of the 1980's CFIUS law giving the executive ability to review foreign investment transactions seen as national security risk. This approach was seen as better than executive action after the Trump administration decided this would be sufficient to protect U.S. technology. In addition the Commerce Department will come up with new rules on export of sensitive technology to other countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Estimates show one in five new mothers or about 800,000 mothers in America are experiencing anxiety disorders during the pregnancy or a year after giving birth. Mental health disorders are now the leading cause of maternal death, says the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The US is the only high income nation in the world without paid maternity leave and this increases risks of mental health. About one in four women return to work within 4 weeks of giving birth. This report shows the work done by the University of North Carolina Chapel Hills's Center for Women Mood Disorders, one of only 3 inpatient facilities for mental health in the US. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The largest U.S. bank holding companies, including Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup, and two foreign banks Deutsche Bank and Barclays PLC must submit initial plans for "living wills" by July 1, 2012. The Dodd-Frank legislation requires financial firms to develop plans that lay out how they could be liquidated if they went under in a crisis. This legislation gives the FDIC and other regulators the power to seize and dismantle a failing financial firm, to help mitigate the problems of "too-big-to-fail" firms. The FDIC and U.S. regulators lacked such powers at the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The FDIC and the U.S. Fed co-wrote the living will rule for "comprehensive and coordinated resolution planning." In all, 124 banks, including 100 foreign banks with U.S. affiliates, which have over $50 billion in assets worldwide, must submit plans and update on a regular basis. Smaller banks will have the deadline extended to December 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden balances the order closing the US Border with Mexico with action to protect 500,000 undocumented spouses of American citizens from deportation and giving them a pathway to citizenship. Biden says it protects American values to keep families together. This will bolster the support for Biden among Latinos in 2024.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's growth will slow to about 3% in 2022 as the decisions made at the Central Economic Work Conference that ended on December 10 were to emphasize economic stability as the overriding goal. The goal of discouraging speculation in housing with the slogan housing is for living will remain in place in 2022. The goal of controlling surging debt that poses a serious risk to the economic future of China will also remain in place. The external environment remains uncertain and getting complicated with a change in the US and German governments in 2021 and shifts in policies.

A party congress will take place in 2022 in addition to the Beijing Winter Olympics. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Areas in the "too big to fail" part of Dodd-Frank U.S. financial reform legislation where work remains to be done to prevent a future crisis include: the creation of living wills by the largest banks so that they can be dismantled in an orderly fashion, and the designation of which banks are systemic risks by the Financial Oversight Stability Council. The FDIC and the Federal Reserve have yet to finalize the rules for creating "living wills" for large banks. The rules are expected to be finalized by fall 2011. The FOSC is working on the designations and what criteria to use for selecting the non-bank firms that pose systemic risks. Progress has been made at the FDIC by finishing several rules for implementing a new system to wind down a large failing bank. The FDIC is hiring staff for a new office that focusses specifically on large complex financial firms. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo has led the effort for higher capital reserve requirements for U.S. banks, requirements that would be closer to 14% for capital reserves. In an editorial on June 16, 2011, the Wall Street Journal said that if the Federal Reserve is serious about controlling systemic risk then it should support capital reserve requirements of 14%....

LyrArc Article Gist
Seen as a rural urban divide, less educated and well educated and tech workers the situation in France looks similar to that in the US in the elections of 2016 and 2020. With business in the US and European Union shifting manufacturing to China and the governments neglecting rural areas, decline in standard of living for people on pensions that have not kept up with the cost of living, the situation in France as in the US is decades in the making. Bernie Sanders and Melenchon were appealing in different ways to younger people yearning for change and a system that would correct these changes.   Melenchon coming this close to less than one percentage point of Le Pen in the first round of French elections shows that a straight Macron Le Pen version of what has happened is an oversimplification, just as seeing the changes in America under president Biden vs Trump would be a simplification, as voters for Sanders who voted for Biden are changing the Biden agenda and setting America on a new path. A path to reshoring jobs that were sent to China, rebuilding American manufacturing, increasing workers wages and restoring workers leverage for higher wages, investing $2 trillion in child care, housing, supporting worker incomes and families, supporting older Americans on pensions. In the same way beneath the idea that nothing has happened after the yellow vest protests for cost of living, that has not only not gone away- but increased in the concern for cost of living in this election with the surging inflation - new developments are happening.  Even as Germany under Merkel appeared not be changing in 2020- 1 year after Merkel the situation will have changed completely to address social concerns that were ignored earlier and to invest in infrastructure in a big way. Behind this is a fundamental change that is taking place. Facing a challenge from totalitarian states the fabric of society in the free world, the US, Germany, France, other EU states, India, and nations in the free world will have to respond with changes that restore the fabric of society to what it was before this kind of fracturing, bringing all parts of society together to bring all the energies in place for rebuilding, investing in infrastructure, restoring local manufacturing and renewal. It requires a unified effort to be put in place to respond in the right way.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Queen Elizabeth II says in her Easter message to Britain- "Coronavirus will not overcome us."

"We need Easter as much as ever." Remembering the tradition of lighting candles at Easter she said: "As dark as death can be - particularly for those suffering with grief - light and life are greater."

"May the living flame of the Easter hope be a steady guide as we face the future."

This is her first Easter message and comes after her televised address to Britain on Sunday March 5th with its rallying message "we will return."

 

 

LyrArc Article Gist
Paul Krugman reviews a book by Robert Gordon, a distinguished American economist and historian, on the improving standard of living for Americans after the war in the period 1940 to 1970. This period brought some of the major changes in the standard of living which have since stalled. Gordon points to the developments in science and technology between 1870 and 1940 providing the largest boost to standards of living as the quality of life improved- especially the conditions in which people lived using modern sanitation, electricity, automobiles, and work saving appliances. The period 1940 to 1970 enabled the spread of this to the country as a whole. The IT revolution's developments occuring between 1990 and 2005 are also behind us. This process between 1870 and 1970, with the followup period to 2000, is seen by Gordon as a one time development in the scale of change and the improvement of quality of life. The future does not hold a similar level of progress in standards of living, says Gordon. Set against the current stagnation in incomes, widening inequality of opportunity, and the political discourse, this review raises important questions about the future. Quality of life potential now rests in improvements through personal involvement in health improvement, improved education, renewable sources of energy, and other ways, which are more soft knowledge improvements than the hard improvements of the past- which may require more personal involvement than in the developments of the last century of progress, with some improvement coming from renewal of the old physical infrastucture using the new technologies available. Just as the developments of the last century required dogged persisitence and effort, these developments will require dogged persistence and effort, with some of the easy stuff currently posing as technological development not qualifying....

LyrArc Article Gist
Realtor commissions average 5.5 to 6.5% for decades split evenly between buyer and seller broker agents. Overall commissions in UK are 1.3%, Netherlands 1.8% by comparison. Another cost of living action is being taken by the US Justice Department. This Editorial Board editorial in WSJ says realtors are using rigged game in which home buyers and sellers end up paying high broker fees that are not paid in other countries. The US Justice Department of the Biden administration says- the Missouri verdict in a class action lawsuit against NAR for $1.8 billion settlement only offers cosmetic changes and will still perpetuate "stubbornly high broker fees." WSJ says legal scrutiny should continue. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The UAW added 7000 workers to the 18000 already on strike at Ford, GM, Stellantis.The UAW is making progress in its talks on Stellantis on cost of living adjustments and outsourcing, and says it will spare Stellantis from more walkouts. Stellantis also has the least hourly workers of the three US auto companies. Stellantis has operations in Europe and gets half of its profit outside the US. The UAW is also not stopping work at the largest SUV and pickup truck plants that make the most money for the auto companies. The idea is to do only what is needed to achieve its goals of fair pay and benefits for the auto workers.

LyrArc Article Gist
The US Justice Department imposes a $225 million fine on Teva Pharmaceutical and requires it to sell its Pravastatin drug line as part of a deferred prosecution settlement on price fixing charges. The  public was overcharged by $350 million according to a 2020 indictment. Collective fines on price fixing charges in the generic rugs industry amount to $680 million reports WSJ. Teva will also have to donate $50 million to needy patients. This is another way the Biden Justice Department is bringing down the cost of living by keeping a close eye on drug costs pushed up by illegal price fixing. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Out of 50 economists in a WSJ Survey on inflation in the US, 28 economists say inflation will be higher under a president Trump. Only 8 economists say inflation will be higher under a president Biden. Trump's plan to crackdown on illegal immigration and to raise tariffs will put an upward pressure on prices say the economists in the WSJ Survey. This weeks inflation figure came out at 3%. Under president Biden inflation which reached 9% has come down to 3%, a remarkable achievement that the president alluded to in his press conference yesterday. This is a result of president Biden's cost of living actions on several fronts including housing, energy, retail prices, banking, pharmaceuticals, healthcare, childcare. Biden has made it his top priority. By raising tariffs across the board on imports Trump's actions would lead to higher prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
Janet Yellen, Fed chairwoman, says the financial system is safer now after the financial regulation, stress testing, living wills and other changes that the Federal Reserve has implemented. She says there is no need for a reduction in these key regulatory rules. One of the changes is that banks now use a safer mix of financing- equity financing has doubled for capital, and wholesale borrowing is cut in half, since the 2008 financial crisis that took the U.S. and with it the global financial system to the brink of disaster. The appointment of Randall Quarles to the Fed by the Trump administration was intended to  reduce regulation, and this is Yellen's response to such proposed ideas. 

LyrArc Article Gist
There are about 181,000 homeless in California one third of the total in the US. This $6.4 billion bond issuance for borrowing funds was approved by just over 50% of the vote. It will go to create more affordable housing so badly needed in California's out of control housing prices. People tended to think nothing works and out of apathy did not vote. But the scale of the problem required effort at the state level or federal level with funding in the tens of billions of dollars for affordable housing. This is the first time that this has happened even though Silicon Valley and capital markets have wasted hundreds of billions of dollars in dubious companies and projects that have contributed little to the standard of living and ease of living of the American people, including essential infrastructure and health, education services. The dilapidated and crumbling infrastructure, of subways, streets and bridges in New York City is another aspect of the same problem of serious, serious lack of affordable housing in California. It also creates the kind of class divisions in society that FDR-Truman-Kennedy sought to remove since the 1930's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Dell donation of $6.25 billion for Trump $1000 child investment accounts. The Trump accounts were passed by Congress for giving tax deferred investment accounts to children born from Jan.1 2025 to Dec 31 2028, as a way to give 25 million lower income children a good start in education and opportunities in life. The Dell money $250 per account will go to 25 million children, go to 10 years old born before Jan. 1 2025 as away to address the gap for children not in the age group Congress targeted. Dell's money goes to US zip codes with average incomes below $150,000. This is a recognition by the Republican DJT administration that many lower income children are being left out in the economic growth US has experienced in the last decade, approaching the problem from a different angle than the Democrats.