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Germany will reach 85% of gas storage with Russian gas reduced to 10% of consumption by September 1, 2022. The next target is to get it up to 95% for German gas storage facilities by November 1, 2022. "The reservoirs are filling quicker than planned," German Economy Minister Habeck told Der Spiegel. The big part of gas supplies are now from Norway and Netherlands. And LNG supplies will come from France. 

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Was Russia better off in 2021 than after the invasion of Ukraine. Was it better for upward mobility, health, openness of the economy and growth, and standards of living. Was the US perceived as a hegemon when it also lacked control of its own companies that preferred to invest elsewhere and ignored US workers for a long time. This report in the WSJ asks whether it is not true that not just Russia, but the US, the EU, China, India, other large nations faced a world order that was in many ways difficult, not to their liking, and in some ways posed risks for their countries. 

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Germany is going through a second year of slight economic contraction. The newly elected government of chancellor Merz has setup a $1 trillion fund to invest in infrastructure and defense. This will increase the debt to GDP ratio from 62% much lower than other advanced economies to 75%, and could give the German economy a rebound with $500 billion for fixing aging infrastructure. Germany's unemployment rate stands at 6.3% in March 2025. The economy weathered a energy crisis with the cutoff of energy supplies from Russia during the term of chancellor Scholz. Infrastructure, child care, was neglected under Merkel and previous administrations as it was in the US under Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. The 2009 financial crisis, the eurozone debt crisis and the pandemic, Ukraine crisis from 2009 to 2024 have provided headwinds for action to renew Germany till now. A $1 trillion new fund and removal of the constitutional brake under the newly elected parliamentary majority of the CSU/CDU, the SPD and the Greens is the first step with $500 billion earmarked for fixing aging infrastructure, digitization of the economy, and other investment. The unemployment situation is deteriorating in the auto industry which was poorly managed and is now being hit with US tariffs of 25% on imported cars made by BMW, Mercedes and VW. ...

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With the 15% mandated cuts to energy use in the European Union countries and the shutoff of Russian gas supplies, three remaining German nuclear plants can be run for an extended period to take off some of the strain on the German economy. Sentiment for nuclear power is changing in Germany. A Spiegel opinion poll is cited in this WSJ editorial that shows 78% of Germans favor keeping the three remaining nuclear plants operating till summer 2023, and 67% say it is a good idea to keep them running for 5 years.  The issues of nuclear vs solar, or coal and gas vs solar is not a yes or no proposition anymore as shown in the negotiated measures to allow some coal and gas operations in the US in the Biden Climate Change bill that passed the US Senate on August 7, 2022. This is not merely a concession to a fossil fuel dependent state (West Virginia) and Senator Manchin, this is a realization that the transition can be better managed economically and the same results for renewable energy and climate change emissions goals can be met with a carefully planned  strategy that allows for LNG exports to Europe, and fossil fuel production flexibility in the face of the embargo on Russian fossil fuel supplies. ...

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The Guardian gives this story of Khamanei's rule in Iran after 1989. He was made president in 1981 in a landslide win at that time just 2 years after the revolution in 1979 that toppled the Shah of Iran's monarchial regime. Khamanei comes from a the family of a modest cleric in the town of Mashaad who was immersed in the anticolonial writings coming out of Arab North Africa's liberation movements. His policy towards Israel and the US, difficult relations with Arab countries in the neighborhood, and pursuit of nuclear weapons technologies, led Iran to become isolated and face sanctions that hurt its economy and its oil industry for three decades. It created its own version of governing and in setting up proxy militias but this resulted in huge investments diverted from the economy of Iran, neglect of its oil industry and production under western sanctions, that led to economy collapsing and student protests every decade. This expanded in 2025 to broad sections of the population calling for a new direction. Protests were suppressed leading to a disconnect with the people by 2026. To truly understand Iran one has to step back to the 1900's ( as one must also do to understand China or India), as Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at the time. The first Majlis parliament was set up in Iran in 1906 -with the help of "good" Britishers like the British agent in Rajkot who helped send Gandhi to London to study law- wished to see a constitutional setup similar to Britain and limit the powers of the monarchy so that reforms in agriculture and in the civil service could be made. It lasted until 1908. At the time other Britishers in the British Empire both in India and in London sought to maintain British influence and keep out Russian influence. It was not a coincidence that the Majlis lasted only till 1908. That year in 1908 the first discovery of oil in West Asia was made in Khozestan province by George Reynolds, with investor backing of William D'Arcy. The following year 1909 the Anglo-Persian Oil Company( later Anglo Iranian Oil Company and later British Petroleum) was formed. The oil concession was given by the Shah from Qajar dynasty. From that time on Iran became the scene of oil company interests, monarchial interests first under Qajar dynaasty and then under Pahlavis dynasty (which set itself up like Napoleon II in France from humble origins, after 1925 to replace the Qajar dynasty), and the emerging middle class lawyer and civil service, agricultural landowners class, all competing for power and influence in a Asian region with Shihite Islamic embedded in the fabric of the society. Power swung to different groups from 1925 onwards for 5 decades to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi temporary replacement monarchy that worked with British oil interests. West Asia became a meeting point for anticolonial writings emerging from Arab North Africa and other places that took the form of and led to a socialist style anticolonial Baathist influnce that overthrew a monarchy in Baghdad Iraq in the "Free Officers" coup of June 14, 1958 led by Karim Kassem. Out of that Pan Arabic Iraqi mood emerged S. Hussein who with weapons systems imported from the US and Europe initiated the war with Iran in 1980. The Iranian counterrevolutionary movement to Iraq began from that time with the leadership of Khomeni and Khameni from 1981. This is what one has seen swing back and forth in the West Asian region for about 5 decades to 2026, the regional Arab states mostly Sunni monarchies ranged against Iran with its Shiite and also modernizing population. US oil interests in Arab monarchies of the West Asian region from the time of FDR's meeting with Saudi's Faisal in the WWII period clashed with Iranian public interests competing with oil interests (US and British) allied to monarchial interests, and the emergence of Shiite Islamic authority in Iran in these clashes. Iranian public interests that started out with the Majlis and parliaments set up by the "good Britishers" never got a chance in Iran just as the modernizing effort of Sun Yat Sen in China in the 1900's never got a chance in the middle of the surviving monarchy in China by 1910, and the Japanese colonial interests in China from that time competing with the Nationalists Koumintang and the Communist Chinese workers movements emerging in the 1930's, all competing for influence during the Chinese civil war and in its aftermath the emergence of Mao and the CCP of China. This is the situation we in the world face today. ...

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The difficulties of unwinding war stimulus that has increased jobs and wages in poorer regions of Russia, and the problems with unwinding a war economy, are discussed here by experts from Russia, the US and Germany. Other aspects include what to do with hundreds of thousands of new recruited soldiers who would be unemployed during a period when the economy's growth has slowed and wage growth is slowing. In 2024 new recruits were given 1 years bonus and were being attracted in large numbers. JD Vance mentioned this to the new Pope in discussions, and this report says even Putin does not know how best to unwind this war economy. Vance told Pope Leo XIV -“I’m not sure that Vladimir Putin himself has a strategy for how to unwind the war.” This is the view also from an expert at the Free University of Berlin, as rapidly demobilizing a large army poses its own problems. Russia could export the arms from new arms factories and keep people employed. This option is difficult as many African countries buy on credit and Asian other buyers may seek the latest technologies, others face financial difficulties or like India are diversifying and shifting to local manufacturing. ...

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck says Germany has plans to almost completely end Russian energy imports by the end of the year. For this to happen Germany has to make extensive progress in cutting oil imports in a short time. By the end of summer the Russian energy imports will be cut by half. The effort is significant because before the invasion of Ukraine Germany received 50% of its coal, 55% of its gas, and 35% of its oil from Moscow. Coal deliveries will end by the end of autumn. 

Habeck confirmed that current contracts with Russian companies to import energy will not be renewed. He also confirmed that Russian gas deliveries will take longer to be stopped- not till mid-2024.

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Russia's government lowers its forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.8%. Like other emerging markets Russia is facing a slowdown in economc growth. Government forecasts are for 3% growth for 2014 and 2015. About 50% of revenues in the budget come from oil exports and Russia is still dependent on higher oil prices. The budget is likely to have a 1% of GDP deficit in 2015. President Putin is not inclined to run a large deficit to increase growth. Budget revenues are expected to come lower for 2014 and 2015 by 3.3% and 6.9% compared to forecasts. Finance ministry policy is for hiking taxes on mineral extraction 16% by 2015, and increasing excise taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. State run firms will be asked to pay out 35% of profits as dividends compared to the current 25%, providing $39 billion from this action, according to the Finance ministry.

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Protests in 5 of Turkey's largest cities with mayors from the CHP party, Istanbul, Ankara, Bursa, Izmir following the arrest of Imamoglu, Mayor of Istanbul, just before he was being nominated by his party to run against Erdogan for president of Turkey in 2028. Ekrem Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, with 54% of the vote in a recount when Erdogan had been in power for 16 years starting in 2003. Erdogan also started his political career as Mayor of Istanbul. Erdogan became popular following mismanagement of the economy by the administration of the time. He increased growth with foreign investment in his first ten years. His popularity began to wane with tendencies for authoritarian rule. Without a strong candidate from the opposition Erdogan was elected again in 2020 with 52% of the vote. In 2024 Ekrem Imamoglu was relected a second time as Mayor of Istanbul.  In 2025 Turkey is a changed country- with countries around it Ukraine, Russia, Middle East, and the US, very different from the 2000 turn of the century period. CHP party in power in the cities is now in a position to run the country after two decades in the Opposition. As a result there is a shift in mood in the country seeking new leadership and the AKK party of Erdogan now faces a serious challenge from the Opposition CHP and Imamoglu. ...

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The title of this BBC report is a misnomer as the content of the report is that India and the US are actively negotiating a Trade Agreement after some disagreements on Indian oil purchases from Russia bumped up from 2% before 2019 to about one third to 40% of its imports by 2024. This is being rapidly reversed and some estimates by consultants CLSA show India only made $2-3 billion from Russian discounted oil sales, a miniscule amount. On American interest in agricultural exports India can take in some products other than grain which it sees as important to feed 1 billion people and food security.  DJT says the "special relationship" between India and the US is important, and says "there's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion". India has much bigger stakes in trade with the US. In fact it's growth into the third largest economy in the world means doubling or tripling its trade with the US and the European Union in the next few years. This would narrow the difference in GDP and per capita between India and China, as India and China started at the same GDP and per capita in 1950. Only in 1990 with China's trade with the US has the Chinese GDP and per capita income increased to create the huge gap with India. ...

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

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Russia stated at a meeting of OPEC oil producers that it would not accept cuts in oil production to stabilize the oil market. The coronavirus effects on the world economy have resulted in a sharp decline in demand for oil. This lack of an agreement among oil producers is leading to a steep drop of 30% in oil prices on March 9, 2020. The Russian position in talks was that it was too early for deep cuts considering that the  true impact of the coronavirus on the world economy was unknown, and that the loss of 1 million bbd from Libya had already reduced production. Experts say the Russians wanted to stabilize oil prices around $50 a barrel and the Saudis a bit higher. Under the OPEC agreement Russia would have to reduce its production by 1.5 million barrels per day (bbd), in addition to 2.1 million bbd from previous cuts that would be extended to March, which it found unacceptable. The impact of the double whammy of continued increase in coronavirus cases around the world and the drop in oil prices as a reflection of business confidence was also felt in world stock markets.  Russia's budget is less sensitive to oil prices than the Saudis. The Saudis need somewhere near $80 per barrel to breakeven. Analysts say Russia does not want to lose market share to American shale oil companies which do not have output cuts and benefit from lower oil prices. Shale oil companies in the U.S. are struggling in the present situation of low prices as many of them need $65 a barrel in price to breakeven. About 208 shale oil companies in the U.S. made bankruptcy filings since 2015.  The oil importing countries with increasing oil imports such as India will benefit from the drop in oil prices. Japan and other oil importing countries in Europe, Africa and Asia will also benefit as Russia and the Saudis go all out to increase production. ...

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Ekrem Imamoglu, three time elected Mayor of Istanbul follows a career similar to that of Erdogan who became Mayor of Istanbul and was then elected prime minister in 2003, as the administration of the CHP party failed to manage the economy. A period of economic growth followed with increasing foreign investment and Erdogan was reelected till 2013 when he decided to run for president following the term limits for prime minister. At that time his rule had become increasingly authoritarian. He was elected with smaller majorities with no effective opposition leader ,and the Middle East in turmoil with ISIS and Syria's civil war. Erdogan fought a tough election against a civil servant candidate from CHP turning out the nationalist  and conservative vote.in 2020. By this time the economy was having high inflation and his popularity was down, and he won barely with 52% of the vote. By 2019 Ekrem Imamoglu, 47 years, emerged as a more effective opposition leader, winning election for Mayor of Istanbul. He won again in 2024 and is now emerging as an alternative to run the country. Erdogan is 71 years and the world around Turkey has changed with DJT in the US, and Russia- Ukraine peace talks, trade tariffs worldwide, and the investment climate completely different, inflation increasing to 39 percent, and no easy solutions to economic problems. Some of the conservative and small business vote is no longer assured for Erdogan as the economy and Turkey's situation in Europe has changed. ...

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says this is not chaos in tariff policy because you don't change 70 years of policy overnight. He says China's is highest because it has the highest trade deficit, then EU, Japan, South Korea at 15% because of the smaller deficits with these nations, Vietnam because it is used  by China to send products to the US, India because of geopolitical reasons buying Russian oil. See Dasha Burns, Politico White House Bureau Chief's  interview with USTR Jamieson Greer.  He says about India- Jamieson USTR calls India "an outlier" and says "I'm confident we will get a deal with India in the near future." India he says has largely corrected its imports of Russian oil and negotiations are underway for a deal.  ON USMCA Greer says of the $31 trillion in trade with Canada and Mexico $29 trillion is us right. trade between Canda and Mexico is small. So he says it makes sense to negotiate separately with Canada and separately with Mexico. This suggests that there doesnt need to be a USMCA- separate deals are just fine says Greer. Mexico has gained much in automobiles under USMCA- US wants to make more in the US including auto parts which it can do by negotiating this with Mexico. It does not make a ton of economic sense to marry the three economies together, says Greer, as the import export profiles, lab,or situations are all different. Are Tariffs good for the economy and do they lead to higher prices? Greer says inflation was down in the first DJT term in trade with China and tariffs. Greer says there is never a 1 to 1 with tariffs. It tariffs become a kind of leveage in getting agreements. That is the style of these tariffs. You tell Ecuador or Brazil we don't make these here so there will be no tariffs on bananas and on coffee. Says Greer- we have seen inflation in check, imported goods relatively low priced. We have seen that we can have growth and higher wages with tariffs at the same time. The growth in 2025 third quarter at 3.8% annual growth, and Atlanta Fed predicting 4.2% growth in 2026. And tariff money can be used for paying down the debt and financing America's reindustrialization, Greer says members of Congress are asking about this.When a new administration comes tariffs will still be part of the playbook. ...

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Biden efforts to reduce the level of escalation in relations with China include a visit by Secretary of State Blinken to Beijing in June 2023. The US says it seeks "to responsibly manage relations with China." The visit of Blinken to China was planned for February 2023 but postponed after the shooting down of a Chinese balloon craft in US airspace. China's support of Russia in the war with Ukraine has further strained relations. A similar effort is under way to reduce tensions with Iran by approving 2.5 billion euros payment by Iraq for Iranian oil deliveries. China sees Biden's efforts for stronger competition with China as affecting its economic interests. It seeks economic ties in the face of a slowing economy preserving its advantages in manufacturing developed over 2 decades. The Biden administration seeks with the EU a new supply chain that corrects the errors of overconcentration of manufacturing in China. This is what China means when it refers to the Biden administration stoking "competition" with China, as affecting China's sovereignty and national interests.  ...

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

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The Putin administration in Russia has set a goal for 2.5% GDP growth for 2013. The figures for the first 5 months of 2013 show growth at 1.8%. Russian president Putin told the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that central bank policies will continue inflation targeting. Putin's economic aide Ms. Elvira Nabiullina will become the new head of the central bank in July 2013. David Lipton, deputy head of the IMF told the forum the IMF assessment is that there is no slack in the Russian economy. Putin announced $13.6 billion in infrastructure investment for rail and road links, and liberalization of gas export rules, and improvements in the judicial system.

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Ukraine's general election in March 2019 comes at a time of very low confidence in government. Only 9% have confidence in the government dropping from the 24% at the time of the 2014 protests. The problem is mainly corruption with the Wold Bank pointing out that politically connected firms control about 20% of the revenue and 25% of the assets. The major candidates Ms Tymoshenko a former president, and Mr. Poroshenko current president have about 18% support. A comedian with a television show in its third year called "Servant of the People" has about 25% support, and is leading in the polls. Lack of political experience was not an issue.The hope raised five years ago have not been realized as Ukraine suffers from crony capitalism and corruption. The war in the east has affected Ukraine's economy. Since 2013 average wages have fallen 20% to $320 a month and gas prices have gone up 8 times during a period of the conflict with Russia. The 2014 protests led to the fall of a Russian backed government, Russia taking over Crimea, and the war in the east with separatist rebels. Mr. Poroshenko's government has failed to move quickly to tackle major problems in the economy. ...

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Barley points out that Russia has two strengths as it tackles S&P's downgrade of its credit rating. The downgrade was a result of large capital outflows. He cites Moody's for the low level of government debt of about 13.5% of GDP in 2013, or about $265 billion. Interest payments on debt are about 1.7% of government revenues in 2014. And Russia has $442 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of April 1, to support its efforts and stabilize the economy. The weakness is that Russia depends on oil and gas exports for half of government revenues and 67% of exports, according to Moody's. Higher interest costs on Russia's bonds are one cost of the crisis, bonds due in 2023 have a yield of 5.6%, according to TradeWeb. This yield could go up higher.

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Speaking at a banking conference, advisors including the head of Russia's largest retail bank Sberbank, German Gref, minister of the economy, Aleksei Ulyukayev, and head of the central bank , Elvira Nabiullina, express deep concern about the economic prospects in 2015. Foreign investment is down from about $90 billion in the 1st quarter of 2013 to a negligible amount in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Capital outflows following the Ukraine crisis are estimated at about $110 billion by former finance minister Alexsei Kudrin. The ruble dropped to its lowest level against the dollar since the 1990's. And the sharp decline in oil prices with Brent crude at about $90 is another risk factor as 50% of the budget comes from oil and gas revenues and 60% of exports are still oil and gas, with no serious or effective effort to diversify under the Putin adminstration. Putin told the banking conference that a deficit free budget and reserves of $460 billion are "fundamental factors supporting stability." Advisors and leading bankers remain unconvinced. The problem is that even at the beginning of 2014 before the Ukraine crisis foreign investment had slowed to a trickle, similiar to what India experienced in 2013. The central bank head says her effort to open up the bond markets in Russia to foreign investors is now in vain because there are few foreign investors. Instead of reversing the situation as is happening in India with the new Modi administration, policy under Putin and the Ukraine conflict may have scared investors away with the increasing western sanctions and stagflation (estimated 8% inflation and about 0.5% growth in 2014). The head of Sberbank Mr. Gref told the banking conference- "The Soviet Union broke apart because of the mind boggling incompetence of the Soviet leadership. They did not respect the laws of economic development." The problem with sovereign reserves is that it can protect a sovereign currency such the Russian ruble or the Brazilian cruzeiro to some extent, but today's vibrant economies need foreign investment and foreign technology for growth. Even a country such as China with a trillion dollars in reserves needs the reserves in its special case because of its billion plus aging population, and is no exception to these laws of economic development about the need for foreign technology and foreign investment. ...

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Steve Lee Myers reporting from Moscow and St. Petersburg, Jo Becker from Washington and London, and Jim Yardley from Nicosia, Cyprus, provide this extraordinary and exceptional report on the rise of a small group of friends, mostly from Mr. Putin's time in St. Petersburg, into a new sort of oligarchy replacing the old one under Mr. Yeltsin. This includes more familiar names such as Sechin at Rosneft, but also less familiar names such as Mr. Kovalchuk, chairman of Bank Rossiya, which owns major television and radio stations and newspapers in Russia. M. Kovalchuk is described as having acquired many of these media properties at a fraction of their real value. Bank Rossiya assumed management of assets of Gazprombank, and Gazprom bank purchased Gazprom Media with five television and a number of radio stations for $166 million, when Medvedev, a Putin associate put the value at $7.5 billion 2 years following the acquisition, according to this report. Other assets acquired in this manner include Channel 5 and Ren TV, giving Putin's inner circle control of the media and reducing any critical or different views on issues facing Russia. Many of Gazprom's assets were transferred to Bank Rossiya, say critics, including insurer Sogaz which was acquired for $100 million, later valued at $2 billion, says the report. Names on the this inner circle also include Yakunin, head of Russian Railways, also include names like Fursenko and Timchenko. Most of the people in this inner circle are now targets of western sanctions. Missing in this report is mention that that this inner circle of the second term as president replaces the larger circle of the first terms as president and prime minister, with Putin benefitting from experts and advisors in the first terms. That circle included Finance minister Kudrin known for his successful management of the economy, and others who left the administration after flawed parliamentary elections. Even prime minister Medvedev is not mentioned as part of this inner circle, suggesting a degree of isolation which could be perilous for the Russian economy as it deprives the Russian president of different opinion and useful advice. This is a pattern seen in many emerging market countries which experience corruption during the period of industrial development. A pattern seen also in China under the Communist Party. And in Venezuela where a new Bolivarist class was created. In emerging market democracies such as India and Turkey the problem is also present, except that in India the recent open election led to the ouster of the Congress led government with many cases of corruption in its second term. A similiar election led to a new government in Indonesia, showing that there is another way beyond the Putin Way. Behind the protests in Hong Kong and in Russia, as well as in India, were the huge gaps in wealth and the growing inequality, corruption, lack of responsiveness of ruling governments. In Russia this takes another dimension with efforts to control the internet and media, and efforts to spread this style of democracy. This has created problems in the Putin government's relations with western nations having open societies and free media, and unwilling to accept a distorted model of democracy. Another less noticed aspect of the evolution of these emerging markets is that upto a point development proceeds even accelerates even in the presence of corruption, and then reaches a point where development and growth slows with problems of corruption, mismanagement of resources, declining productivity, economic and political errors, or unfavorable external environment. India faced this problem in 2012-2013, Russia is likely to face this in 2015, and China faces the prospect of growth slowdown by 2016. This feature of emerging markets also reminds one of the frequently quoted old English saying by Lord Acton- "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." An idea also attributed to William Pitt the Elder who said- "unlimited power tends to corrupt the minds of those who possess it." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia faces inflation of 7%, and the central bank policy is to fight inflation by increasing interest rates to 7% in March 2014. The crisis in Ukraine and Russian intervention in the Crimea has worsened the prospects for the economy at a delicate time after Russia's growth rate was slowing rapidly in 2013. Capital flight in 2013 accelerated in the 1st quarter with the Ukraine crisis- with about $60 billion in capital outflows in the 1st quarter 2014. Speaking at an investor conference in Moscow, the former finance minister Alexei Kudrin, who strengthened Russia's finances in Putin's previous term continued to warn about taking risks with the economy and Russia's finances. He had earlier warned about higher defense spending. He now says the sharp economic slowdown expected with a possible contraction of 1.8% in 2014, is the price Russia is paying for an independent foreign policy. The policy is popular in Russia now with Putin's rating at about 80% in April 2014, but Kudrin says this does not reflect the situation if the contraction leads to falling real incomes. As investment spending stalled in the 1st quarter, only consumer spending supports growth for the remainder of the year. Russia's Economics Ministry favors stimulus to support growth, but the central bank is concerned about keeping inflation of 7% in check, and the Finance Ministry favors current policy of building up the rainy day fund from higher oil prices. As a result no stimulus is planned even as the economy slips into a risky contraction phase. For emerging markets in 2014 political problems have exacerbated slowing growth first in Turkey in 2013, and now in Russia in 2014, with the reverse taking place in India and Indonesia where elections and a change in government lead to more optimism....

LyrArc Article Gist
Stephen Miller, as both intellectual and organizer, is shaping policy on immigration at the White House as adviser to Kristi Noem, head of Homeland Security. He is a dedicated follower of DJT and White House deputy chief of staff. He also brought Prof. Navarro to the attention of DJT on trade policies.  He was a key figure in the first DJT administration at the age of 31 having served as communications secretary for Senator Jeff Sessions and developed his ideas during the period with Sessions. As director of speech writing and senior adviser to DJT,  he wrote some of president DJT's policy speeches in the first term, the speech to the Republican National Convention 2016 , and the Inaugural Address of 2017,  including the speech on Jan. 6th 2020 following the storming of the Capitol building.  Who is Stephen Miller? He comes from a Jewish family that immigrated in his grandfather's generation in 1903 to Ellis Island from Belarus, during a period of discrimination in Russian regions. During the period on campus at Duke University where he graduated in Political Science, Miller was a follower of a prolific author, David Horowitz. Horowitz was part of the Jewish leftist intellectual movement in New York in the post war period, but after the 1980's joined the Reagan movement and questioned the ideas he had believed in, questioned what he saw as the antisemitism on US campuses. At Santa Monica public school in California in 2000-2003 Stephen Miller questioned the multiculturalism that replaced the America of the founding fathers, that he saw at the school. It is this perspective that also underlies Stephen Miller's ideas about universities, about immigration, about the economy and China under Bush, Obama and Biden. Miller is also an organizer as he set up the America First Legal in 2020 with funding from donors on the right which has filed many lawsuits during Biden's term in office.  ...