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The Times of London reports on the decision by the Supreme Court of Britain that Boris Johnson abused his powers and acted unlawfully in suspending parliament. Separately BBC analysis shows that even though Johnson is relying on polls and planning to run people vs. parliament this means that its the courts as part of what he calls the establishment he is running against.  Nigel Farage called for Johnson's adviser Cummings to resign showing that the Leave campaign is not what it was when Britain voted to leave the EU in the first referendum on June 23, 2016, now over 3 years and 3 months since then.

 

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During the civil war the Libyan government of Gaddafi used mercenaries from Mali and the Shaharan region region to suppress the young people fighting for democracy. After the fall of Gaddafi, these troops with arms returned to Mali and the Sahel region and formed militias that now control the northern part of Mali. These mercenaries who linked up with Al Quaeda are suspected of the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. The U.S. with French support is only now focussing on this problem. During much of the Libyan struggle for democracy the Obama administration let France take the lead in Libya, and may have missed the volatile situation developing in the Saharan region of Niger and Mali as a result of the flow of arms into the region from people of Mali and Niger returning to their countries from Libya.

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Sarkozy has not lived upto French promises to set a new tone, and follow policies that respect the interests and wishes of people in Africa's Francophone countries for good government and development. In Gabon, Niger, and Senegal and other French speaking countries, the French government has favored regimes in power.

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After the resignation of Angela Rayner UK prime minister Keir Starmer faces pressure from within the Labour party on the direction of policies to benefit the working class base of the party. Splits within the party with a new party being formed by Jeremy Corbyn would only benefit the Reform UK party of Nigel Farage. Only a year after winning in a landslide Labour is struggling to win support in local elections as it faces the need for a tough line on migrants proposed by Farage and his UK Reform party. This tough line on no tolerance for illegal migrants was put forward by Farage in The Times, and the Times in an Editorial described it as something Labour and Starmer should listen to. Previous differences existed when Labour contested the last election, Labour simply needs to keep the party together and tackle migrant issues without any preconceptions as it is something the public expects it to do, not spending billions of dollars on illegal migrants which are needed in housing and working class benefits that were cut. ...

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New CFTCdocuments show a biger role in oil markets of speculation than previously thought.

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The first reading of the bill to stop no-deal Brexit clears the House of Commons in Britain with a vote of 329 to 300. This rebuffs prime minister Boris Johnson's plan to push Brexit through by stealth and at any cost by October 31. The bill will delay this to Jan. 2020, and set the stage for a no confidence motion in the minority government of Mr. Boris Johnson.

It now prepares Britain for general elections as early as October with Johnson hoping to unite theBrexit faction, but facing a possible backlash from Conservative moderates, and facing also the lack of support from UKIP Party's Nigel Farage. It is a very different Brexit campaign in very different circumstances than the one that was able to win in the last referendum. It also poses a challenge for Labour party to get its message across about living standards and economic opportunity for all, better than it has before.

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There is serious lack of depth in leadership in the Tory party today. Names proposed in The Guardian for Tory leaders after the July 4 election should Rishi Sunak have to resign are clearly short of what Britain needs in leadership. It depends on which Tory MP can hold on to his seat. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kim Badennoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, all lack what is needed to lead the Conservatives on July 5, 2024. This has been true all through the last two decades.  David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss who preceded Sunak for most of the last decade were also lacking in leadership. The decade wasted with Nigel Farage and David Cameron, Boris Johnson trying to get Britain out of the European Union has hurt Britain. Today most Britons want to go back to a Britain that is growing as part of the EU and Europe. 

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All but the poorest pensioners are affected by the winter fuel payment cut in the UK that is planned by Labour's finance minister, Rachel Reeves. After losses in local elections to Nigel Farage's Reform party in May 2025, Labour party is considering restoring some of the cuts as Labor MP's protest these cuts.

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On the dangers facing Nigeria as the issue of transition to a post Obasanjo administration is faced. The question is whether Obasanjo continues for a third term by revising the constitution, or arranges a worthy successor to continue his policies and help establish democratic institutions and processes in Nigeria. The issue is important for Nigeria's future and that of the whole of Africa. Unrest in the Niger Delta where oil is produced is also a concern, as well as the need for better resource distribution and much needed development in Nigeria.

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This article in DW.com cites experts who point out that the Republican Party always had tensions within it because of the diverging interests of three groups that have allied together to form the party- Wealthy businessmen and corporate interests, evangelicals, and white working class people who have seen their incomes decline for several decades. The interests of each group have some overlap, are sometimes masked but frequently they diverge. Nigel Bowles, former director of the Rothermere Institute at Oxford University, says there is no particular reason that this coalition would hold together, that it was unstable to begin with, a wonder that it did not split up earlier. Scott Lucas, an expert on American Studies at the University of Birmingham, says that Reagan showed great skill in holding this coalition together, and Donald Trump has taken it apart by mobilizing only one constituency of white working class voters and leaving out others. The break between Republican party leaders Ryan, McCain, and state party leaders, with Trump is unprecedented in post war American politics, and putting it back together now looks like a lost cause in the medium term.  ...

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About $2 billion estimated by the Nigerian government is the amount stolen by military ruler Abacha from the central bank between 1993-1998. The Swiss government agreed to return $458 million of this to Nigeria in September 2006. Desperately needed development funds have long been diverted from the oil wealth of Nigeria into private accounts. Note the present government has made some progress in the area of fighting corruption. Also note that much more needs to be done for development in places where oil is produced like the Niger delta, and these problems have resulted in the shutdown of oil production in the area, affecting world oil prices.

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Veteran reporter Mark Landler at NYT gives this exceptional report on Bolsover, a town in the Midlands in UK. Natalie Fleet, running for Labour for parliament, is a working class parent and a product of the UK Midlands region, a region around Coventry, Birmingham and Nottingham that was dotted with coal producing mines and industrial towns in the era before World War II. For most of the century till 2019 Labour held the parlamentary seats in this region and in the north of England around Sheffield. It was the loss of these seats that brought first Cameron and then Boris Johnson Tories to power, and where the immigration issue resonated for Nigel Farage's UK Reform movement that led to Britain having a referendum and leaving the European Union.  Today locals think it was all a big mistake, most Britons want to rejoin the EU, and they back Starmer's Labour party by huge margins after Jeremy Corbyn left the leadership position at Labour. Money that was allocated for reviving the town was never spent and the years passed with little change. Labour's Natalie Fleet attends D-Day ceremonies in the region and the one thing that is arousing Britons today is that PM Rishi Sunak chose to leav D-Day ceremonies the same day, ignoring the sacrifices of so many Britons and the need to keep alive the memory of a Europe united against the horrors of the war period- the need to work together make the world a better place. ...

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European manufacturers are expanding manufacturing in the US because of the high value of the euro. They are also looking east. Eastern Europe now comprises 15% of eurozone imports and Turkey and Russia and additional 7%, compared with 12% to the US, almost twice as much exported to the rest of Europe alone than the USA. And an additional 17.5% to countries in Asia excluding Japan. European manufacturers are also increasing productivity to meet the impact of the higer euro and this could have beneficial effects.

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How does this relate to Nigeria and Shell, and Shell problems in the Niger Delta?

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According to the chief economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, his models show that $500 billion of purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase growth in the U.S. by only 0.1% in 2011, and leave unemployment at 9% or higher for two years. Moody's Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisors also point to small impact of quantitative easing efforts of the Fed. One economist said that the Fed's taking interest rate to zero had not worked, QE1 has not worked either, and now its a serious question how much difference QE2 would make.

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The SNP Scottish party and the Liberal Democrats favor early elections and will push for this in parliament. The thinking is that both parties can do better in an election before Brexit is passed. A You.Gov poll for The Times shows only one person in five or 19% see the EU withdrawal deal negotiated by Boris Johnson as "a good deal." SNP, and Lib Democrats say this means voters will vote for parties with clear for or against positions on Brexit including the Independence Party of Nigel Farage. Both SNP and Lib Democrats are for Remain. Labour Party under Corbyn is divided on how quickly to go into another election. The Tories under Boris Johnson are relying on polls showing they are leading by 10 points yet this can change as Theresa May faced a similar situation and called for an early election which led to losing its majority.  Experts on BBC say a December election is highly unusual and most unpredictable, posing big risks for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives particularly now with Johnson advisor Cummings tactics dividing the party. ...

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Eri Machii, founded AfriMedico, a nonprofit organization designed to deliver medicine to remote regions in countries in Africa. She worked in Niger under a Japanese Overseas Cooperation Volunteers program after two years working as a pharmacist. There she learned about the dangers in Africa in remote villages where travel and delivery expenses were high and infrastructure lacking. She devised a method of Okigusuri for Africa where as in traditional Japan medicines were left in a kit in villages and people paid only for what they used. Payment is done by cell phone using the M-Pesa money transfer system. Maichii learned about okigusiri as a system used in Japan throughout its history in places where infrastructure was lacking, lack of universal health insurance, and large families living together. She found that this was true for distant villages in countries like Tanzania where she implemented the system under AfriMedico. 20 volunteers helped found the organization and Tanzania pharmacist network helped guide them in setting it up. Large amounts of medicine taken at one time reduce the cost of transport. Use of the system of medikits in urban areas helped subsidize the village use. This is a system that has great potential for medicine delivery in many parts of Africa and Asia that have the same problem of access to basic medicine kits- so that treatment can be done earlier in the process for quicker less costly recovery, improving general health conditions. One can think of Indonesia, Philippines, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, West and East African countries as having potential for wider use of this system. As people pay for only the medicines used using cell phones the system has wide applicability from cost and access point if supported by private and governmental agencies in these countries.   ...

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Nigerian oil supplies affected both by struggle to get more money from the central government for the Niger delta and by strikes at Exxon Mobil production sites.

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Current UK approval ratings show Labour losing a lot of support and would be he largest party but lead Tories by about 10 seats. Keir Starmer's unfavorability rating is about 61% and his favorability rating at about 27% by Ipsos in December 2024. Kemi Badenoch's is worse than Rishi Sunak and at negative 5% net approval (difference betwen approval and disapproval) approaches the negative 9% of Liz Truss. 

Reform UK of Nigel Farage could increase it's seats in parliament to 71 from 5 seats. Liberals would have close to Reform UK seats and Greens 8 seats. Labour according to one poll would have 256 seats to Tories 208. Labour could have a tiny majority with the help of Liberal Democrats compared to the landslide recently on 60% of eligible voters actually voting.