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This report in the Guardian says president Macron's party along with its small ally MoDem could win as many as three fourths of the 577 seats in parliament in the June 2017 election, or about 400-445 seats. The election showed a low turnout of 49%, with abstention highest among supporters of Marie Le Pen of the National Front on the extreme right and Le Melenchon on the extreme left.  A big loser is the Socialist Party which this report estimates losing about 200 seats. Les Republicains the other main party on the right is also a loser, as this report estimates it going from 199 seats to 70-130 seats. The National Front of Marie Le Pen could end up with one seat at worst or just below the threshold of 15 seats from 118 constituencies contested. This is because it faces competition from the right and the left parties for votes in every constitutency, and is kept out by the centre right and centre left coming together. Le Melenchon's France Unbowed is expected to win about 11-23 seats.  In this election young and working class voters stayed away, voters who supported the more extreme left and right wing parties. Chancellor Merkel called it "a vote for reforms." The big majority makes it possible for Macron to get laws to change the labor market to create more jobs, and to make changes to pension and unemployment benefits, so that France's economy can get moving again.  ...

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WSJ reporters Chow, Schechner and Kostov provide this exceptional report from the 11th Arondissement in France, scene of the terrorist attacks in Nov. 2015, describing the conflicting visions of French society- one secular and the other in other parts of the country anti-immigrant. The National Front of Marie Le Pen sees immigration as "a mortal threat to France" and won about 25% of the vote in France in the 2014 European parliament elections, a first for a anti-immigrant party in Europe. It did very well in rural areas and small towns of northwest France and southern France. The debate on immigration is now dominating headlines in Europe, including Denmark, Norway, Germany, France, Rumania, Hungary, and other countries. The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated the situation.

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A centrist 73 years, and mentor of Macron, the head of the Movement Democrate allied to Macron's Renaissance party is appointed to succceed Banrnier as PM of France. Macron hit a new low of public approval rating of 23% by Ipsos. Scholz of Germany is at 18% following reaching 65% in Jan 2022. Bayrou says-“I am fully aware of the Himalaya of difficulties that lie before us,” Bayrou says he would strive for a “necessary reconciliation” with Melenchon of France Unbowed party and Marie Le Pen of National Rally on the left and right of the centrist Macron. These are mere labels- both Melenchon and Marie Le Pen want to see higher public spending and no cuts in the Budget for 2025, Macron is not eager for cuts, Barnier wanted to cut the budget to cut the growing deficit but this is not a time to cut spending as investment is needed to grow the economy and meet needs for public services and cost of living assistance. Macron was taken by surprise by Barnier's approach leading to a no confidence vote and Barnier resigning.  ...

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France goes to the polls on April 10. Marie Le Pen is shrinking Mr. Macron's lead in the polls. Most of the other candidates other than Mr. Melenchon show less than 10% support from voters including Valerie Pecresse of the Republicans who have failed to arouse much enthusiasm The Republicans and the Socialist party of Mr. Mitterand and Mr. Hollande were defeated in the last presidential election by Mr. Macron. Today the choice is between Le Pen with her inexperience and her policies skeptical of the European Union and Mr. Macron who is more experienced but lacking an effective social policy in addressing the social problems in France raised by the yellow vist protesters. Immigration is an issue in this campaign and Mr. Macron has taken a tougher stand on immigration and cultural issues following several terrorist incidents. There is a general lack of enthusiasm with 25% of the voters not expected to vote, many of them 25-34 years old. With 37% of the voters not decided which way they will vote and some votes cast even if the candidate selected was seen as having some drawbacks, the elections in France are a vivid contrast to the recent election in Germany with the Greens and Social Democrats ending the CDU's four terms leading the government under Merkel. Mr. Macron only campaigned in the last 8 days before the election.   ...

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For the first time in 45 years France has no Budget for the following year. It has no Budget for 2025 as Bayrou replaces Barnier who lost a no confidence vote in parliament. The mood is not for cutting public spending by Melenchon on the Left party Unbowed and Marie Le Pen of National Rally on the right as Barnier and Bayrou seek to do.

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In a closely watched election Mr. Wilders of the far Right in Netherlands gains 20 seats, far behind centre right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy of prime minister Rutte who won 33 seats. The Dutch Green party which is strongly pro- Europe went from 4 seats to 14 seats, the Christian Democratic Appeal party gained 19 seats and the pro-European Democrats 66 party also gained 19 seats. In the 150 member parliament Rutte needs 76 seats to form a new coalition government, and he is likely to ally with these other parties to form a new government that supports strongly the European Union. This editorial in the NYT says the people of the Netherlands turned out in large numbers to support pro-European Union parties. Next the focus is on France and Marie Le Pen's challenge from the far Right. Cyber threats from Russia are seen as a way to discredit otherwise strong candidates, and the French government is taking this seriously. Chancellor Merkel said she "was very happy that a high turnout led to a very pro-European result," and president Hollande said this was "a clear victory against extremism."  ...

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Francois Bayrou the new PM of France speaks a dialect of the Pyrenees mountains, is mayor of Pau, and was a school teacher before entering politics. He has a disdain for extreme positions on both sides left and right, including polarizing politics of Sarkozy. He gave key support to Macron at the right time when he needed it to run for president. He gets along well with Le Pen and has helped Marie Le Pen run for president in the past when she needed support because he felt this was essential for the democratic process. He was not the first choice of Macron and insisted on taking the job over other choices.

Pau is located 31 miles from the Spanish border with a clear view of the Pyrenees mountains. It is an ancient city with a University at Bearns, and a medieval heritage.

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The long and bruising process of exiting the European Union for Britain is being seen across EUrope as a lesson. Marie Le Pen in France and Salvini in Italy have dropped ideas of France or Italy leaving the EU. Nationalist politicians are now shifting to a new agenda of reforming the European Union from within. Voters are being reassured by politicians that it is best to remain inside the European Union. Chancellor Merkel has carefully guided the European Union through this crisis, first through the eurozone financial crisis, then through a period of migration to Europe from war torn Middle Easter and African countries, and more recently with president Macron of France facing the effort to get Britain to leave the EU. After Boris Johnson's win in British elections with 44% of the vote Britain now faces the difficult choice especially for hard line Brexiters such as Mr. Jacob-Lees Moog and Johnson, to either accept European rules, regulations and standards over which it has little control or lose market access to the EU. There is also the issue of Scotland which favors being inside the EU and a Scottish independence referendum. ...

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Baker and Shear show the changes in president Trump's views on Islam and Islamic extremism following his meetings with leaders from the region since taking office. In his speech to leaders of the region Trump said "Islam is one of the world's great faiths" and said what was needed was "tolerance and respect for each other." He also said it was not about "conflict between religions, sects or civilizations." General McMaster calls it "learning" for Trump, something Trump has shown a capacity for when he badly needs to get it together and make a conscious effort. As a result the page on the travel ban on the Trump website has been taken down. This is an astonishing about face seen in one way because of Trump's rhetoric during the election and right upto the travel ban, yet it also shows Trump's business instincts and willingness to learn and be open, showing he has many personality traits and is a more complex person than he looks at first glance. This may also be how he survived in business bankruptcies, by adapting and learning. Contrast this with the views of Marine Le Pen during the French presidential election, and it shows that the business side and commercial instincts of Trump make a real difference. He can appeal to the cultural angst of followers, whether it be for Mexico or the Middle East, yet take a sensible approach to get on with it when needed. Trump needed to be careful about words and meaning following a month of media revelations on the relations between Flynn and Russia, and the appointment of a Special Counsel to investigate Trump campaign connections with Russia. ...

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The opposition of parties from the far-right in the Netherlands and France, and other parts of Europe, to austerity measures imposed by the EU under the leadership of Germany's Angela Merkel. Geert Wilders, leads this far right opposition in the Netherlands and Marie Le Pen in France. The far right parties are gaining influence with high unemployment and economic recession in Europe, making spending cuts painful for pensioners, and the middle class.

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Polls just days before the French presidential election show independent candidate Macron getting about 60% of the 18-24 year age group. There is discontent in this age group because of high unemployment. The unemployment rate is 24% for people below age 25, higher than 18% before the financial crisis of 2008, compared to 7% in Germany for this age group. For people 25 to 29 years it is 14%. This is why Marie Le Pen has appeal in economically struggling northern towns. Yet most French people are finding it difficult to take on an agenda as radical as Le Pen's that takes France out of the eurozone. In the final debate just 24 hours before the vote Le Pen entered into a discussion about leaving the eurozone but showed she had no clear idea of what this would mean for France. She described Brexit as an example and Macron shot back that Britain was never in the eurozone to begin with, and it appeared that Le Pen was just hoping that it would all work out, without a clear grasp of the facts. She had no response to Macron on how an exit could create panic in the markets and lower the value of savings of ordinary French people by about 20%. On pensions she stated that 60 was the age for retirement under her plan opening herself up to the criticism that she had no clear idea of the facts as Macron pointed out- that it would mean lower benefits or higher payments into the retirement system. This may be why even some young people who see the banking experience of Macron as a liability, may be offset by others who see this as a possible asset because of the need for some valuable experience in an independent candidate, as described by Dalton.    ...

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Just before the general elections of Feb 24-25 in Italy, the centre left PD party of Luigi Bersani sees its 12 point lead over the coalition of Silvio Berlusconi go down to 6 points. Former EU commissioner and prime minister in 2012, Mario Monti, has 14 points. The maverick Five Star Movement of comedian Beppe Grillo has the support of younger voters looking for a break from the past in Italian politics with 15 points. Italy's election rules automatically gives the coalition with the largest number of votes a 55% majority in the lower house of parliament. In the Senate a similiar rule gives a majority on a regional basis. For the eurozone the best outcome is for a Bersani win. Bersani looks to the Monti coaliton, which has the support of Italy's business community, for credibility and backing. The Economist provides an insight into how Italy lost competitiveness and income per capita stagnated in Italy in the last two decades. The dynamism of the sixties and seventies is missing, Italy's infrastructure is old and needs to be modernized, the productivity growth is negligible, and application of new technologies for productivity in many sectors is lagging. Political mismanagement under Berlusconi and other administrations before him has led to an entrenched stagnation and Italy badly needs to get out of this. Italy and Portugal are the only two countries with a lower per capita real income in 2013 compared to 1999, when the euro was launched. Unit labor costs have risen, and productivity has declined in the last two decades leading to lost competitiveness. The inability to resort to devaluations, and the lagging application of technology in many sectors, has increased the lack of competitiveness, with the economy becoming dependent on higher public spending, higher public debt. The result is higher unemployment at 11% and youth unemployment at 36%, infrastructure that is old and badly needs modernizing. Foreign investment is small, and the cost of doing business higher, including electricity rates 50% higher than the European average, R&D spending low, all of which need to be reversed for Italy to grow. But there is hope. The Economist cites an OECD report that shows the Monti government's reforms in regulatory, labor-markets, product-markets, can generate 4 points of GDP growth in the next decade. An IMF report of Jan 2013 looks at proposed reforms in energy, transport, professional services, judicial system and public services and more labor-market improvements, with the larger impact when done in combination, could add 5.7% to GDP growth in 5 years, and 10.7% in 10 years. Adding changes to taxation and shifting public spending towards investment for growth increases the figure to 21.9%....

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The results from the EU elections show neither traditional centre right or centre left parties are able to form a majority. The euroskeptic parties in Italy led by Mr. Salvini and in France by Marie Le Pen have not won with the kind of support they expected. Also important is that these parties in Italy and France have changed their position on membership in the European Union. They now support remaining with the single currency the Euro, and staying in the EU, hoping to change it from the inside. In Spain the Vxx party on the right has from its inception supported the Euro and the European Union. Only Nigel Farage's Brexit party is for Britain leaving the EU. These parties such as the League in Italy and the National Party in France are in accord with globalism and global capitalism. The changes they call for are now on immigration, migration, and against a single market for labour with social services for new immigrants or migrants. They are for ending multiculturalism in favor of nativist national ideas, sweeping indictments of bureaucracy and elites, curbing migration and building national pride. In Spain their is also concern for separatist movements such as in Catalonia for the Vox party, and interest in stronger federal structures. There is no coherent strategy for these new parties to tackle problems such as lack of growth, widening regional divide within the countries. Yet now the discussions will be about what the  EU will do, not about whether there should be a single currency the Euro or whether to remain in the EU.  In this sense the European Union is set for the task of regenerating from within. The European Union was itself an experiment that started with the effort to set up the initial arrangements to bring together the economies and political structures of European countries after a disastrous war. It accepted nation states and individual country differences even as it sought an ideal of a united Europe. This means there is room for more ideas and for differences within Europe and the European Union than allowed for by existing structures, politics or ideas. ...

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This report by James McCauley of the Washington Post, points to the uncertainties in the French presidential election. About one third of French voters are undecided. Le Pen and a surprise candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon are pulling in voters on the far right and the far left. There are questions whether Macron's effort to pull together centre right and centre left voters will work in such an environment. McCauley says the gist of Macron's approach is summarized in a line in his 2016 book- removing "the obstacles on the road," making equality of opportunity a reality in a land of elite government and business running the country, and key being " renewal of ideas and men."  It is not exactly a way forward, more about renewal in French society. His opponents are pitching exiting the European Union and different visions of a protectionist welfare state. Macron is pitching continuity with renewal and changes to bring more opportunity to young people by investing in vocational education, recreate French schools, and expand health services, lower residency taxes. A lot depends on centrist voters coming out to vote as happened in the recent Dutch election, and undecided voters looking for renewal instead of the uncertainty of drastic changes. ...

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Matt Bai's interview with Mario Cuomo, former governor of New York. The conversation covers different topics: Mario Cuomo's speeches, the affinity and the dissonance with his son Andrew Cuomo's idea of liberalism and his own, about the kind of triangulation practiced by Clinton and Obama, and his sense of being a liberal in the old fashioned way. The talk goes to a speech Mario made about helping the poor without crushing the middle class and the sense today that the task ahead is about helping the middle class without crushing the poor. Mario mentions a conversation with Bill Clinton about an offer to join the Supreme Court. Mario said he told Clinton he would not be able to debate and talk freely about his views if he accepted that position. Considering Mario Cuomo's speeches this is sincere. He is torn between the struggles experienced by his father and others of the most ordinary working men and women of the period between the wars, the idea that there had to be a better way, and the difficulties of making that better way work in the real world in the postwar period. There is a sense that one has been forgotten or is now out of place- the dissonance with the times- when a serious contribution was made at one time and place that will always be there. One generation taking over from the last, adapting in its own way, the values timeless....

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Pop and Troinanovski look at the tough negotiations ahead for Brexit and describe Theresa May as a experienced negotiator. Belgian Interior Minister Jambon says she has "a lot of policy knowledge" and moved in the direction of European cooperation. Germany Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich says May has a very clear idea of her objective, uses clear language, and is consistent. Yet much depends on other factors including elections in Germany and France in 2017. For France and Hollande the issue becomes particularly filled with implications with the need not to give the far right and Marie Le Pen any advantage by making concessions in the negotiations. German chancellor Merkel is also very clear from her perspective on migration and free movement in the European Union, a point on which she was tested by other Eastern European countries during the refugee crisis. Merkel made this clear that it was Britain's choice of direction in future relations- "Whoever wants free access to the European single market must in return accept all of the basic freedoms, including the free movement of people." Because of domestic politics in Germany and France and in the rest of the European Union, these negotiations could drag on for a very long time. The only positive sign for both sides is that May is known as a responsible politician after 6 years as Britain's Home Secretary, holding one of the top positions in the cabinet. As Merkel's popularity has recovered with about 55% popular support and the decline in the support for the AfD in recent poll cited by DW.com, Merkel may be prepared for a long negotiation to keep the original idea and spirit of the founders of the European Union alive and strong. ...

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Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank appears before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. He said the ECB had resumed normal lending to Greece's four major banks after the 18 billion euro recapitalization of the Greek banks by the government of Greece using bailout funds assigned for this purpose. Draghi tod the parliament: "The ECB will continue lending to solvent banks. We will avoid bank runs on solvent banks." At the same time he asked the EU to setup a deposit insurance fund for European banks and regulation of banks at the European level. On the actions taken by European leaders Draghi had strong criticism for the slow response always one step behind action needed and a day late, saying: "The next step is for our leaders to clarify what is the vision for a certain number of years from now. The sooner this has been specified the better. Dispel this fog." He described the configuration for the eurozone of the last ten years as unsustainable unless steps are taken, with leaders having to decide quickly what kind of eurozone they want to see. On Bankia's recapitalization by the Spanish government, Draghi said everybody winds up doing the right thing after many delays at the highest possible cost and price. It showed the need for centralization of supervision at the Europe wide level because Spain took too long to tackle the bad real estate loans at Bankia....

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The MIT Economics Department helped shape the thinking of influential central bank governors, Mervyn King of the Bank of England, Ben Bernanke of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and Mario Draghi of the European Central Bank. Bernanke (1979) and Draghi (1977) received their Ph.D.s in economics from MIT in the late 1970's, with Prof. Stanley Fischer (1973-94) as their advisor. Charles Bean, deputy governor of the Bank of England followed them a few years later. Mervyn King was a visiting professor at MIT (1983-84). King and Bernanke shared an office as professors at MIT. The MIT school came up with a pragmatic and activist approach which argued there was a role for government when markets and the economy stumbled. This followed a period when economists from the universities at Chicago, Minnesota and Rochester were influential, making the case for efficient markets and businesses holding rational future expectations which were ahead of government planners; saying government should play a minimal role. The MIT trained central bankers have made shaping public and market expectations an important part of policy actions. Draghi's July 23, 2012 remark- "Believe me this will be enough," was an effort to shape expectations after the European Central Bank's July 2012 bond buying actions in the eurozone. Germany has a competing version based in Bonn. Germany's former Bundesbank president, Axel Weber, was the tutor at Bonn University for current Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann. Both Weber and Weidmann supported austerity measures, inflation fighting efforts of former ECB head Claude Trichet, and opposed Draghi's monetary easing and bond buying efforts to reduce excessive yields of Italy and Spain....

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Krugman questions whether the assumptions behind the austerity policies are true- that they would inspire confidence in economic recovery, or that in the absence of austerity policies borrowing costs would go through the roof. The recent events in Holland with the collapse of the government in the Netherlands- when a party leader supporting the government said he did not want to hurt pensioners in the Netherlands just to satisfy German opinion- and the mood in France with economic anxiety vote going to Marie Le Pen and Francois Hollande in the first round of presidential elections, shows that very little confidence has been created. High unemployment and economic anxiety are leading to a reappraisal of austerity cuts that depress the economy and reduce tax revenues, but Krugman says no changes are taking place to correct these policies. This is true for Spain with its high unemployment, and Britain which now has two quarters of negative growth.