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Let sleeping tariffs lie is the approach of S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, India, European Union, Germany, UK-  expect all trade agreements with the US to remain in place after Supreme Court decision as no country wants to go through the intensely difficult process of renegotiating on tariffs. It is also the case that DJT can replace these same tariffs using other tools and different legislation passed by Congress to stop unfair trading practices by other nations. The president is also appealing to the public, some of the tariffs are about fentanyl flows into the US, the unfair trade practices and subsidies were a problem for the Biden administration and rebuilding manufacturing was the goal of both DJT and Biden, and will be for future administrations.  When the media NYT, Washington Post respond they are following the editorial line taken that opposes the DJT administration on all issues, when WSJ respond it takes the textbook approach of economists and finance people that free markets are best without considering the real life issues. This is why the president said at his press conference after the Supreme Court decision that 22 Nobel Prize economists had said the economy could not be turned around for growth and low inflation in 1 year, and were proved wrong after the experience of 2025 with low inflation at 2.8%, low unemployment 4.3%, and growth of 2.2% in real GDP (with strong growth in quarters 2&3 of 3.8% and 4.4%). Expect all tariffs to be in place under other legislation to be in place in coming months. ...

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West Bengal elections in April-May 2026- the elections come after Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, nearby countries, all changed governments following protests about corrupt governance, mismanangement of the economy. Inside India there is a profound change that is not even covered in the  established media such as the BBC and DW.com. The states of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar, in the northeastern part of India had landslides in voting for the ruling BJP party and NDA alliance for Clean government and Modernization of the economy. A similar vote took place also with a landslide for Clean Governance and Modernization in the state of Maharashtra in the western part of India with the commercial hub of Mumbai (Bombay). In the southern part of India in Kerala, the capital city local government in Thiruvananthapuram has also shifted to this Clean Governance and Modernization under the BJP government that governs at the federal level in New Delhi. India is like China and Japan before it, going through massive change to modernize the country with new infrastructure building and rapid development including investments in hospitals, universities and airports, trade logistics, factories for industrial production. The magnitude of the change is reflected inthe population of most of these states being close to 100 million in each state West Bengal(105 million), Maharashtra(130 million), Bihar (133 million), almost the whole population of the US in just 3 of the many states- witnessing huge changes that could mean 20-25% growth rate a year n the next couple of years to 2030 doubling their GDP. ...

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The economy of Japan shows strong resilience with 1.8% growth in the second quarter of 2019, after 2.8% growth in the first quarter. Private consumption and capital investment have increased steadily. Private consumption accounts for over half of GDP. Sentiment is up as the hosting of Olympics by Japan gets closer.

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The ruling party LDP's defense committee has decided Japan needs to strike North Korean missiles on the ground. There is a growing consensus on this. Another consensus is developing over the issue of protecting the Senkaku islands adminstered by Japan and claimed by China. 

Earlier in 2020 T12 missiles with 100 kilometres range were deployed on Miyako island between Kyushu and Taiwan. Now these missiles range will be increased to 300 kilometres to reach the Senkaku islands. China has sent patrol planes and ships near the Senkaku islands. Other cruise missile range is planned for 1000 kilometres as Japan Self Defense Forces expand their capabilities to take on more of the responsibility for defending the Japanese islands. In alliance with India and Australia this capability is being expanded to the entire Indian Ocean region to counter an expansionist China.

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Parliamentary group of the ruling LDP party elected Fumio Kishida, member of parliament from Hiroshima, as the new LDP leader and prime minister. He has called the abolition of nuclear weapons his life's work. His grandfather and father were both members of parliament. Kishida was elected in 1993 to the Japanese parliament, and was foreign minister under Shinzo Abe. He supports the Hiroshima baseball team and is said to be good when it comes to washing up and cleaning the bathroom. As a child he grew up in New York and pictures of that time show him at a school in Queens, New York as a child. This has given him a sense of social injustice. He shares this in his plans for Japan with Biden in the US and Scholz in Germany, a sense that there should be a reduction in the income gap, and support for low paid temporary workers, families with young children. He also shares with Biden and Scholz plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars for renewal of the country- for renewal of US, Germany and Japan in the manner of the postwar renewal in the nineteen fifties. ...

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Shinzo Abe and the LDP won a landslide victory in Japan's Dec. 2012 elections. Shinzo Abe was the first prime minister of Japan born during the post war period when he became prime minister in 2006. He is less influenced by the legacy of the pre-war period and war period. Abe is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, Commerce and Industry minister during the war, and prime minister when Japan signed the security treaty with the U.S. in 1960. His father was foreign minister, making him one of the rare politicians with a deep family history in Japan's government. Their views also influenced his own. Kishi is committed to changing Article 9 in Japan's constitution which limits the role of the military, and renounces the right to wage war. His 2006 book "Toward a Beautiful Nation," describes some of his views.

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Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

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Experts say Kuroda of the Bank of Japan still has some Finance Ministry DNA, as he is from Japan's Finance Ministry which has pushed for the consumption tax to be increased to 10% in 2015. Even though Kuroda favors aggressive monetary stimulus compared to others in the Finance Ministry, he shares the views of Ministry colleagues on the tax changes. LDP leaders in the Abe cabinet and Abe see the recession with 2 consecutive quarters of declining GDP for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2014, as good reason for delaying the next tax increase from the 8% already implemented in 2014 to 10% in 2015. Under Abe's revised plan the tax increase would be postponed till 2017. Abe referred to the different views on the tax increase in his announcement for a snap election in Dec. 2014 for a new mandate to pursue his Abenomics economic policies of Three Arrows. Kuroda for his part downplayed their differences saying fiscal policy was the mandate of the elected government.

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Lost in media reporting the net US exports increase of 5% as US asserted it's position as a leading exporter in 2025 has boosted second quarter US GDP growth to 3%. 

In tariff negotiations  and the agreements with European Union and Japan US has asserted it's position as a leading exporting nation, a position it held since the 1920's that was neglected through the ineptitude of previous presidents.

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Japan's new LDP prime minister, Shinzo Abe, supports targeting the yen at around 90 yen to the dollar to support Japanese exporters. He sees this happening through monetary easing by Japan's central bank. At a rate of 85 yen to the dollar or above Japanese exporters would be in a position to become profitable and pay taxes. Abe says central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are printing money to support their economies and increase exports. Switzerland and S. Korea pursued policies to keep their currencies from becoming too strong to support their exporters. China has managed its exchange rate to maintain export competitiveness. Exchange rate intervention has not been effective for Japan, and the focus now is on monetary policy and setting a 2% inflation rate target.

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Just five prime ministers have remained in office for more than 5 years in Japan since 1945. Prime minister Yoshihide Suga's popularity dropped to 26% from high sixties since September 16 of last year. Five candidates are trying to lead the LDP party. Another period of uncertain revolving door politics appears to be the prospect. This would mean a weak effort in vaccinations and in tackling the coronavirus pandemic. 

Just as in Europe and the US, in Japan there are effects of the pandemic, economic downturn, widening social disparity, plus a contracting population. Yukio Hatoyama, Yoshhide Suga, and Shinzo Abe in his first term served for short periods of one year or less since 2012. There is a perceived need for the older leaders to retire from politics and let a younger generation tackle the problems the country faces as in Europe.

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Shigeu Ishiba is elected the new LDP leader and prime minister of Japan. He is 67 years and was defense minister. This means the replacement for Fumio Kishida is not a younger leader with new ideas as was said to be the intent behind Kishida stepping aside. Ishiba is a son of a former cabinet minister, something too common in Japan. He was a critic of Abe and Kishida, and is depended upon to clean up corruption in the LDP. Other than that this is still an LDP that has no new solutions, the same old ideas for improving the economic future of the Japanese people, not the kind of fresh thinking that Harris is bringing to the US and which some expected would come from Kishida stepping aside for a younger person with new ideas.

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The Japanese government reports a revised estimate for GDP growth in 3rd quarter 2015 from a decline of 0.8% to an annualized rate of growth of 1%. As a result Japan is no longer in recession as previously reported.

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Voters overwhelmingly oppose the tax increase in 2015 taking the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. The Abe government plans to postpone the tax increase and call snap elections in December 2014. Two thirds of people surveyed said they did not see why new elections are needed. For prime minister Abe this is an effort to win a vote now rather than later when the opposition is weak. In 2012 elections Abe won 295 of 480 seats in the lower house of parliament. LDP party officials say even if this dropped by 20-30 seats it would be a win for Abe reaffirming that his economic policies are taking Japan in the right direction towards growth, and extending the length of his mandate. They point to growth in tourism, and the addition of 1 million new jobs. Further action to stimulate the economy would reduce unemployment further and end Japan's deflationary tendencies.

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LDP leader Shinzo Abe is elected prime minister of Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party gains a two thirds majority in parliament with its election partner the New Komeito party. The LDP party gained 294 seats and New Komeito 31 seats. The Democratic Party of Japan gained 57 seats. The election was more of a "no" vote for the Democratic Party of Japan which was seen to have provided three years of weak government and mishandling of the situation during the tsunami and earthquake. Abe comes from a new postwar generation of prime ministers- he was elected prime minister once before in 2006.

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Yuka Hayashi's interview with Gen. Shigeru Iwasaki, Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Japan's Self Defence Forces. Iwasaki says Japan will improve its defense capabilities in the southwestern part of Japan and protect Japanese airspace. Japan will increase defense spending under the government of LDP leader Shinzo Abe.

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Manish Sabharwal writes in the Indian Express that India missed it economic tryst with destiny and economic freedom for its citizens in 1947 and the decades after that. Today with AtmanNirbhar Bharat, he says,  the country is finally making its economic tryst with destiny. It is about self-reliance, yet it is also about opening up to new supply chains set up by allies U.S., France and Japan, South Korea, opening up to trade, investment and technology flows in new and exciting ways. The prime minister's message called for a quantum leap in technology. India was already moving up in GDP terms and set to surpass both Japan and Germany to become the largest after the U.S. and China in GDP. But there was something missing in it for the people. Here he sets out what the huge investment of 10% of GDP and the possible sequel investment to this would mean for people of India, from farmers to workers in different sectors of the economy, including the informal economy. India has fallen behind in per capita GDP and this is now the focus of the people and the government, federal government and the states, to build an economy that provides the best opportunities and growth for all its people. True Gandhian Swa-raj in the best sense of the term.   ...

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With the low popularity ratings of the LDP's Taro Aso, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) led by Ichiro Ozawa was considered afavorite to win elections in September, 2009. Now even the DPJ is hit by scandal as Ozawa's political secretary was indicted for taking $355,000 in illegal donations from Nishimatsu, a building company. Ozawa promised to stay on to fulfill his dream of setting up the first non-LDP government in postwar Japan. He was himself at one time a leader in the LDP till he joined the Opposition parties.

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The politicians in Japan are seen as aself-selecting elite, not just the LDP which has been the party in power for mostly all the post war years, but also the Democratic Party of Japan. Mr Ozawa the DPJ leader was from the LDP, and the new leader Hatoyama's grandfather was an LDP founding father. The LDP prime minister is Mr Aso whose grandfather was Shigeru Yoshida, a prime minister after the war. Mr Hatoyama and another DPJ leader are defectors from the LDP, and both have large family fortunes, as do many LDP leaders. Mr Hatoyama has abrother in the current cabinet. And LDP olitical families treat seats in the paliament the Diet, as inheritable sinecures. Actually half of the current cabinet of Mr Aso are offspring of former politicians. So the Economist is pessimistic about the prospects of real change and fresh ideas for Japan from this crowd of politicians. It sees the need for new ideas. The economy has seen asharp decline in exports. Companies like Toyota are seeing a drop in sales. Government debt is twice the annual output, larger than Italy's. Export led growth which was the basis of recovery since 2002 has crumbled. The demographics estimates show that Japan's working age population will fall fastest as its overall population drops significantly in coming decades. This makes the schemes of the LDP like sending back immigrants of Japanese descent to Brazil with no chance of return as a particularly nutty in the light of the demographics. Leaving change to Mr Hatoyama and Ozawa of the DPJ now makes the prospects of new ideas just as elusive as before. And the public is just as disillusioned, considering the very low ratings of Mr Aso and other politicians....

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U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

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In depth interview with Kyohei Morita, chief economist of Barclays Capital, Finance Asia explores different aspects of the Japanese economy and developments after 1987 and under Koizumi, the role of exports and how ordinary households are affected. He points out a few important things about the Japanese economy that are not generally recognized. One is that Japanese banks are vulnerable in the way the subprime crisis has exposed banks in the USA. Their vulnerability comes from owning 15% of the shares on the stock market which came down from a higher number after years of reducing stock holdings. When the Nikkei drops below 9000 this reduces the bank's capital and leads to credit tightening. Morita points out the risk of turning a moderate slowdown from lower exports into a severe slowdown if banks are reluctant to lend. The other point he makes is that small nonmanufacturing companies in Japan have to thrive for Japan to thrive, but he is bearish about private consumption. In a revealing statement he says that in his research he has found that the path connecting corporate profitability to households is seriously eroding. This is due to globalization as Japanese companies are offshoring aggressively, and 30% of the Japanese market capitalization in held by foreigners. His point is that Japanese managers now tend to see wages as costs just like American managers do and not the way they did in the past, so salary costs are suppressed in favor of shareholder dividends which flow out of Japan. Finance Asia referred to an OECD study that shows Japan's ranking in terms of per capita income fell from fifth highest in the OECD in 1992 to 19th in 2002, a fact that Morita recognizes as strange as western economies have tended to follow relatively stable long term income growth, and which he attributes to Japan's terrible demographics with population shrinking since 2006 and more elderly and retired supported by a smaller percentage of working age people. In an exceptionally revealing statement Morita points out that Japan has globalized from the outside but not from the inside. Japan he says needs more foreign direct investment and ideas, and more immigrants, fresh labour and fresh taxpayers. Which is remarkably true as Japan tends to be rather insular as a country and tends to keep out immigrants. The influx of Polish and Eastern European immigrants to the UK under the Blair-Brown Labor government years would be unimaginable in Japan. In the meantime Japan's estimated $15.7 trillion in financial assets held by households or three time national GDP is something that makes it possible for now for Japan to sustain the upward trend in the debt to GDP ratio....

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The concerns that China was going to overtake the US and become the largest economy is a misconception of how countries have developed through industry and technology. Britain and the other countries of Europe, Germany and France, went through rapid development in the 1930's and 1960's then at some point after saturation were relatively stagnant. China for the first time in 250 years of the Industrial revolution began to develop rapidly and urbanize in the 1990's. China is at that same point of saturation and it's economy moving to relative stagnation with 4% annual growth in 2026-2030 and 2-3% annual growth beyond to 2047. India is taking place of China as parts of India (large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra with population 500 million) can achieve 15-22% annual growth in 2026-2030. A quick idea of this can be seen here in the WSJ. China as a percentage of the global economy was 18.5% in 2021 and has since declined to 16.5% of the global economy in 2025. China was three fourth of the US economy when it peaked in 2021 and has since declined in 2025 to two thirds of the size of the US economy. As a percentage of the global economy China will go down to 12% over the next 5 years as India advances, and the population of US, Canada, Australia with their continental spaces continues to grow and with it GDP growth. This is validated from the Japanese experience of peaking at becoming 18% of the world economy by 1996 and then dropping by 2006 to about 11%, 2016 to 6% and 2025 to 4%. The combined effect is to reduce the size of China's economy as a percentage of the overall global economy at a point of time in the future 2030, 2040, 2050. Japan is a good example. There are other factors in play including technology and capital access as technology and capital shifts to other parts of the world where it can be better deployed and conditions are suited for rapid development as in India/Indonesia and in the US/Canada/Australia regions of 1.6 billion people and 450 million people from China (saturation overbuilding), the Middle East (wars and mismanagement). ...

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Yuka Hayashi gives an exceptional account of the rise of nationalism in Japan. This is especially true of the younger generation. As examples of the changing mood, he gives the popularity of Will magazine with circulation of 100,000 among younger readers, including large numbers of women. Other examples are the movie "Eternal Zero" remaining on the top of box office charts for 2 months, neto uyo or right wingers on the internet are popular, and bookstores display titles responding to China and S. Korea's criticism of Japan. Fringe candidates such as Toshio Tamogami have won 24% of the vote in Tokyo's gubernatorial race, with large proportion of younger voters. The younger generation is not accepting quietly the criticism of Japan's prewar record in the same way as the older generation with memories of the war. It sees itself free to respond to what it sees as China and S. Korea's constant criticism of Japan, even when Japan has apologized repeatedly for its aggressor role in Asia. Weekly magazines such as Bunshun and Shincho carry Japanese criticism of China and S. Korea with sensational headlines about lies. Abe's recent visit to the Yasukuni war shrine- the main object of S. Korean and Chinese criticism and America's concern expressed to Japan- is shown in an Asahi Shimbun poll recently to get favorable support from 60% of people in their 30's. Many of the 119 freshmen members of the Liberal Democratic Party of Mr. Abe also provide support, and some even see Japan needing to defend itself with or without the U.S. Is this level of nationalist sentiment similiar to the twenties and thirties, or to periods of tension in the 1990's and other post war periods? Only recently in 2010 the Democratic Party of Japan under a young prime minister Hatoyama and premier Naoto Kan, a civil rights activist, presented another side of Japan seeking closer ties with China- even distancing itself somewhat from the U.S. on the issue of bases in Okinawa. Naoto Kan also enjoyed a 60% level of popularity as premier Abe has in 2014. Which is the real Japan, or is it a reflection of fatigue among younger Japanese with always having to say you are sorry, as has happened to the younger generation in Germany. Hatoyama resembled Obama as a younger politician bringing a new optimism in Japan after years of LDP rule. Unfortunately president Obama distanced himself from Hatoyama on the base issue and failed to support Hatoyama at a time of tensions with N. Korea, leading to his fall in ratings and resignation. This may turn out to be a lost opportunity for the U.S. for building peaceful neighborly relations in Asia. In 2007 Chinese premier Wen Biao a speech to the Japanese parliament, the Diet, saying: "With history as a mirror it does not lead to long-lasting hate, it points to a better future." Japan's premier at the time? Shinzo Abe. What has changed? China's economy has doubled in size, and so have global Japanese corporations such as Toyota with advanced technologies, economic insecurity is unfounded in a globally linked interdependent economic system. ...

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Abe's new team in Japan. Yasuhisa Shiozaki one of the more aggressive appointments signalling change balanced by appointments of older men from his faction in the LDP. Hiroko Ota, a protege of Mr. Takenanka becomes economy minister in charge of the council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. Aso continues as foreign minister and will try to smooth Japan-China relations.

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Taylor Swift Era's Tour gives a boost to local economies in the hospitality and entertainment sector. In Colorado 2 Taylor Swift shows added $140 million to the state's GDP. Occupancy records in cities in the US and Asia are broken with these Swift tours. The Swift concerts will play at many cities in Europe including Cardiff and Liverpool. Then why are concerts only in Singapore and Tokyo in Asian venues. Singapore provided additional funding for the concerts which could add with other concerts about $300 million to the local economy. Swift has a large following in Japan with people waiting camped overnight for these concerts.