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Yaroslav Trofimov gives his reflections on what the war means for Russia in this Essay in WSJ, and the sense within Russia that the war itself was a mistake. A result of miscalculations and a result that leaves Russia in no way better than it was in 2021 before the conflict. Hard won economic gains achieved by Mr. Putin during the last two decades have in fact been compromised by the conflict. No discussion has even been done on the transition away from fossil fuels that have been accelerated by the conflict. This is particularly relevant for Russia where the question of redundant fossil fuel assets during the rapid transition to renewable energy is a problem that needs to be tackled. The Ukraine diversion in this way affects the Russian economy and acts as a distraction from important economic goals. Global public opinion is also affected in ways that do not look favorable for Russia the longer the war goes on particularly the effect on food insecurity in poor countries, and energy security in Europe for poor households, the senseless destruction of infrastructure in Ukraine and millions of women and children displaced, all creating a sense of overwhelming moral failure. Mr. Modi of India is reported by FR24 to have told Mr. Putin at a meeting on September 15 that "this is no time for war." This is shown on today's pages in Lyrarc. How could it be a time for war when the pandemic has taken lives of over 1 million people in the US, over 2 million in Europe, millions in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and the world is only now coming out of it. The competition is not between countries for major power status but between countries on achieving better lives for its people, stronger economies, and better job, health, infrastructure and services to ordinary people, tackling problems on a common basis such as climate change. In most situations even the advanced countries of North America and Europe are facing the same problems faced by middle income countries such as China,Russia, and developing countries such as India- how to combine market economy with State participation in the economy and government ensuring fairness to all, better distribution of incomes and wealth, ensuring that there is a level playing field for all and opportunities for all. ...

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The contrast between Erdogan and a modest humble civil servant Kilicdaroglu is shown here in FR24. Kilicdaroglu is from the CHP or Republican party setup by Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk founded the party in Ankara after the colonial powers took over Istanbul by 1921 following victory in World War I and planned to breakup the Ottoman Empire. To resist this plan Ataturk responded similar to Japan by forming a new country based on the model of European nations and introduced a new alphabet to increase literacy. He took the country back to its European roots before the Ottomans in the 16th century and turned the Hagia Sophia into a museum. In the process rural people in the Anatolian heartland were not fully integrated by the 1960's and Erdogan appealed to these people, increased social mobility and incomes in Turkey between 2001 and 2018. In the period since then Turkey is faced with an economic crisis and rampant inflation that hurt ordinary Turkish people. The pandemic and earthquake made things worse. This is why Turkey is poised for a change and the Republican party hopes to build the Turkey of Ataturk with Turkey firmly seen as a European nation, with some changes that respect the right to wear scarves for women. For just the earthquake alone Turkey needs $90 billion for reconstruction and there are changes that are needed that would integrate the Turkish economy with the expanding economy of the US and the EU which can take place under Kilidaroglu and the new mayors of both Istanbul and Turkey who are deputy leaders of the CHP Republican party. ...

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Robert Kagan makes the case for continued leadership of the U.S as a champion of liberal democracy and free trade, as the view that it will just happen in a multipolar world of China, India, the U.S. and Europe, is not credible. The existing democracies- India, Brazil, Turkey, S. Africa, Australia -are weak and lack the experience to provide this leadership. India and China could easily end up in rivalry in a multipolar world. This has implications for today. The U.S. cannot provide this leadership as a services economy- it needs a strong manufacturing base to do this. Lessening inequality was a hallmark of the progress made in the 20th century, and especially the six decades since World War II when the U.S. clearly exercized this leadership. The progress to European unity was another hallmark of these six decades. A healthy Japan was also part of this.

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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China is not experiencing high unemployment in 2012 the way it did in 2009. The lower growth rate of 7-8% is not having an adverse impact on unemployment. This makes it possible for the stimulus this time to be much smaller. There is rising upward pressure on wages. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, CEIC and WSJ, average annual wages at private sector manufacturing companies in current U.S. dollars was up 5% in 2009, 16% in 2010, and 20% in 2011. This is being encouraged by the government as China gradually shifts its economy towards higher domestic consumption and better standards of living for workers. Hon Hai Precision Industry Company added 82,000 workers in China in 2011. Salaries at the Shenzen plant were 2200 yuan or $345 a month in February 2012, an increase of 10%. An April survey by Manpower Group showed that a majority of companies will increase workers or hold employment stable, only 3% of companies will have job cuts. Demographic changes are also playing a part-with fewer people in the 15-19 age range, dropping from 120 million in 2005 to 95 million in 2015, according to UN estimates. The number of migrant workers remains steady at 252 million in 2012, up 4% from 242 million in 2010, according to the Bureau of National Statistics....

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Katherina Reiche as Economy Minister and Karsten Wildberger as Minister of Digital Affairs are two new appointments from the private sector of new German chancellor Merz. Reiche is faced with coming up with a solution to the high energy cost facing German industry.

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The Agnipath scheme for Indian Army, Navy and Air Force is explained here in The Indian Express. The scheme is for 45,000 to 50,000 people between about 18 and 21 years to be hired each year. These trainees will be kept for 4 years, and only 25% of those in training will be selected to continue for another 15 years. The recruits will receive between Rs 30,000 and 40,000 a month. 30% of this will be retained for benefits trainees will receive.  The idea behind it is to lower the average of soldiers in the armed services from 32 years to 26 years to reflect India's youthful population and to help those returning to the job market to find jobs in business or as entrepreneurs starting new business with government help. The experience gained in the armed services is seen as also becoming attractive to businesses that are hiring good disciplined employees. The circulation of people joining the services also makes the army a leaner force of about 1.3 million and keeps the cost of pensions at reasonable levels. With India's rapid growth in coming years the trainees leaving after 4 years will have better job opportunities and can contribute to the economic development of the country in many ways. Upon leaving the armed services the trainees will get about Rs. 1.2 million as a package to make a new start in the economy. If there was a death then Rs 1 crore would be given by the government. The government will offer skill certificates and bridge courses so that the quality of trainees remains high and this would provide a skilled workforce for the economy during a period of high growth. A modern armed services like that of India constantly being filled with next generation technology should be able to offer these new recruits the skills and training in advanced electronics, computers, and other technical fields with field training to supplement courses, and the motivation to excel, that would be valuable to many companies. This is the idea behind Agnipath. It is also a tested path as the US armed services also provides this kind of training and many people who have joined and left the US armed services have performed at high levels in American companies in technical and managerial positions. Another feature is "All India All Class" which will make it open to all caste, all region, all religion, and free up the armed services from the current situation of regiments having a caste and region bias. This is a constructive and well thought through aspect of the plan. ...

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Food inflation is affecting a wide range of countries not just poor countries. Even in the US where on average only 7% of the income of households goes to food, for poor and lower income households this can go up to over 30%. In Turkey with a high inflation rate of 80% in June over prior year, the problems of food inflation are severe. Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries get most of their wheat from Ukraine and Russia through Black Sea ports. Across Asia the situation varies with less food inflation in countries that are self sufficient in food production such as China, India and Vietnam, to countries such as Sri Lanka where inflation is severe and takes up most of the budget for ordinary families. Lebanon is an extreme example with the collapse of its economy and 332% inflation with food inflation severe. Ethiopians spend about 45% of income on food. Somalia faces drought conditions and severe food shortages. This part of Africa is the most fragile and most prone to breakdown. Being self sufficient in food was an important goal for countries that faced famine in the past such as China and India- this has produced good results. Even in Europe small countries that make their own food with agriculture getting importance such as France and Switzerland the benefits are immense. Switzerland food inflation is as low as 1.5% lowest in the world. Where as in Africa this importance of agriculture has been neglected the consequences are seen today. In Latin America Argentina and Brazil are exporters of soyabeans and other food. This helps insulate them from the worst effects of the food crisis.     ...

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US president Biden points out in his letter to the US Congress- "When I was elected President, a pandemic was raging and our economy was reeling, and trickle-down economics had undermined our nation’s growth long-term. I was determined to rebuild from the middle out and bottom up, not the top down, because when the middle class does well, we all do well. We can give everyone a fair shot and leave no one behind. Our plan has brought transformational progress." "Along the way, we’ve achieved one of the most successful legislative records in generations, bringing new opportunities to communities of all sizes nationwide. We’re tackling years of underinvestment in public infrastructure, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing, making sure the future is made in America by American workers. We’re making the biggest investment in American infrastructure in generations, including over $400 billion for 46,000 projects in 4,500 communities to date. These projects are rebuilding the nation’s roads, bridges, railroads, ports, airports, public transit, water systems, high-speed internet, and more, in every part of the country. We’re also making the most significant investment in fighting climate change in history—advancing breakthroughs in clean technology, boosting energy independence, lowering electricity costs for hardworking families, and revitalizing fence-line communities smothered by a legacy of pollution. At the same time, we’re working with the private sector to strengthen America’s semiconductor and advanced manufacturing industries as well, empowering workers and small businesses to share in the benefits. Already, my Investing in America agenda has attracted $650 billion." ...

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Bernanke's defense of the action of the Fed's monetary policy making committee, on November 3, 2010, (with a vote of 10-1) to buy an additional $600 billion of Treasury securities over the next 8 months. His defense focusses on the prospects of deflation- how low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), that can create a long period of economic stagnation. In addition, with low and falling inflation, Bernanke sees spare capacity in the US that can be utilized to reduce the number of jobless people. He points to the rise in stock prices and fall in long term interest rates in anticipation of the Fed's action, as evidence that this Fed move would improve financial conditions. Lower mortgage rates would make housing more affordable, higher stock prices would increase consumer wealth, confidence and spending. Spending would lead to higher incomes and profits for economic expansion, from this viewpoint. The situation in November 2010, was a deepening housing slump anticipated for 2011, gridlock after the 2010 midterm elections and no agreement on additional stimulus for 2011, the need to rebalance the global economy lacking cooperation from China (with China increasing imports and reducing exports and the US increasing exports and reducing imports). Fed's Bernanke does not mention these factors, and only hints at the gridlock towards the end of the statement. This Fed action will push the dollar lower, just as efforts to improve exports and the trade balance are underway. The Fed's committee sees the risks of commodities inflation as an acceptable risk in the current situation, and the use of a cautious approach assessing the purchase program regularly as sufficient measure of safety. As to difficulties of the unwinding of these policies, the Fed sees present danger outweighing the risks of no action. For emerging markets such as Turkey, India, Australia and other countries seeing even more inflows of capital, the risks are left to these countries to manage. The central banks of India and Australia moved to increase interest rates at the same time that the Fed made its move....

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The Senate Big Beautiful Bill $6000 per person deduction makes Social Security tax free for 88% of Americans over 65 years. This is close as one can get to making Social Security benefits tax free for people over 65 years. It is a move that is seen favorably by social security recipients. Protecting the elderly on fixed incomes when the cost of living went up 12% in just 1 year in 2022 is an essential step for any administration that cares for the daily lives of the American people. In this sense the DJT administration has made a bold move in three key areas no taxes on social security benefits, no taxes on tips which address employment in hospitality/restaurants, and doubling the child care benefit for mothers, tackling key population sectors. To pay for this and keep the deficits down the dollar strong, one other action was taken- to increase investment in the economy and in manufacturing by allowing expensing of investment 100%. Fed chairman Powell repeatedly states he is very optimistic about this action generating the kind of investment boom American needs to restore good standards of living.   ...

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Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri says India has diversified its sourcing of oil supplies to avoid dependence on the Straits of Hormuz. It has weeks of reserves. Saudis have 5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway and UAE 1.5 million barrel a day pipeline to bypass Hormuz waterway, so that 6.5 million barrels a day could be added to meet Asian oil demand, in addition to convoys escorted by US warships  in Hormuz waterway to meet demand from China, India and Japan. This would mean China is itself dependent on American seapower to maintain it's oil supplies, a third of which come through the Hormuz waterway and keep important sealanes of navigation open. China, India, Japan, and other World are critical for the world economy manufacturing sector and comprise 3.5  billion or about half of the world's population. In addition Latin America and Africa are dependent on oil supplies and prices.  New pipelines, renewable energy, will become more important in the years ahead, and figure more in planner's minds after this Hormuz episode. ...

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Sperling shows how Biden's economic plan rescued America and set the stage for America becoming the leader in the G7 economies. Gene Sperling is adviser to president Biden, coordinator of the America Rescue Plan, and had 8 years as adviser in 2000 and 2011 after the financial crisis to previous presidents. Here he says the arguments made that the trillion dollars investment spending Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have supported with legislation in Congress were causing inflation have proved not to be true. Inflation caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pandemic shifts, and the Ukraine war, has come down to 3.4% in Dec 2023. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. The new policy after 2020 resulted in the fastest drop in longterm unemployment ever with black and hispanic unemployment reaching record lows by 2023. A first ever national eviction prevention policy led to 20% less evictions than prepandemic. Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made. Lastly one needed to anticipate something unexpected to happen that flattened projections of recovery. In 2011 3.7% growth projected was flattened when Sperling was senior adviser, and this was flattened by Fukushima nuclear disaster, Arab Spring spike in oil prices, and debt default negotiations. This time there was cushion in the plan so that when covid variants and unexpected Ukraine war happened the rescue could withstand and deliver with resilience. Growth was 3.4% average for the first 3 years of Biden's term and unemployment went down from 8% to 4% for 24 months. Coming from someone who had seen mistakes happen and corrected them, who had served three presidents and the last Biden ,this is a story of how Sperling, Yellen, with the help of Powell at the Federal Reserve, and the bipartisan support put together by a US president in Congress , one who has served the country in the Senate more than any other recent Senator and led the nation with courage, patience and determination. ...

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Experts view the behaviour of 10 year Treasury yields at different periods following the 2008 financial crisis. Twice in early 2010 and early 2011 there were signals that the economy was not so weak before faltering, each time 10 year Treasury yields went up to 3.75-4% before going down to the 2.24% level. This situation appears to be happening again in 2012 with rates dropping in the first quarter to between 1.82%- 2.11%. The yields on 10 year Treasury jumped again, this time to 2.39% on March 19, 2012, as the eurozone crisis fears and U.S. economic growth fears subsided for the time being.

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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In this report WSJ looks at US Treasury Secretary's warning to China about its role in the free world and its position in the international trading system and the obligations to human values that come with it. Janet Yellen is so well known as head of the Federal Reserve and as US Treasury Secretary that it is easy to forget her experience at Yale studying under James Tobin who supported meeting social goals, whom she calls a life long mentor. Tobin set the foundations for economic policy in the Kennedy administration in the early post war period, after working in the Franklin Roosevelt administration during the war. Social goals, business paying its fair share of taxes, building infrastructure, were all a part of the FDR and Kennedy-Johnson administration.  It is also easy to forget that Yellen set the foundations for economic policy under Clinton and then under Obama administration the period when social goals were not met, infrastructure was neglected, globalization meant shipping jobs and factories overseas to China, and lack of financial oversight over banks that led to the 2009 financial crisis. The contradiction made Yellen realize only late during the Obama administration how much of a diversion she had taken from the social goals of the FDR-Truman-Kennedy post war period.  As one of the architects of the economic policy underpinning the emergence of China's role as the factory of the world, that destroyed many working class communities in the US, Yellen is in the economic role that Merkel shares in world of political economy with her integration of the German economy with that of China. Today as she calls for a retreat to the values shared by her mentor James T, Tobin and of FDR and Truman as they responded to the Berlin Crisis in the aftermath of 1945, and the Korean War with large scale invasion of South Korea and the kind of refugee crisis that we see today in Ukraine, there is much room for reflection. Reflection on what was lost in the intervening years of the Bush-Clinton and Obama years that led to the situation that the free world faces with totalitarianism today.   ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the result of changes in supply chains away from China, and the new trading relationship with China to 2028. He says the shift to a new global supply chain that diversifies it away from concentration in China is taking place. Would taking the tariffs from 30% to 60% under a new Trump administration be a good idea? Greg Ip thinks it is a bad idea as the change is gradual and is actually taking place. It may have the unintended effect of worsening US China relations essential for global stability when it is coupled with erratic or retaliatory rhetoric. Rhetoric that appears to China that it is being singled out in world trade beyond what are changes that have taken place with Japan in the past in trade. The Biden administration is for good reasons working to restore a balanced yet stable relationship with China. Apple is shifting production of 25% of iPhones to India. Samsung is investing more in Vietnam. The trade deficit with Mexico has reached $151 billion twice as large as in 2017. And $100 billion with Vietnam three times as large as 2017. The US trade deficit with China has dropped from $381 billion to $281 billion in the last 12 months, the Commerce Department reports show. And from $1.1 trillion with the whole world from $1.2 trillion for the last 12 months, 4% of US GDP. Overall the Trump era tariffs of 30% have not reduced the US  trade deficit substantially but has shifted American and European foreign investment to India, Vietnam, Mexico and other countries as well as to the home country. Over time the supply chain would become truly diversified as India makes great strides to become the third largest economy with new infrastructure by 2030. The head emeritus of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, Joerg Wuttke, says the pressure to export will be high for China as its economy shifts more to manufacturing from construction. Most Chinese companies are producing more than internal demand in China, and most companies in solar are losing money, in wind turbines and solar all are losing money, Wuttke says. This means China will double down and increase its investments in Mexico, Vietnam, Morocco and other countries so that it can send its products to the US through third countries that do the final export. One expert even says removing a few screws here and some there, find a different supplier, and shipping to a third party for final export that makes it not 100% Chinese content, the pressure for that is high. ...

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There are 240 Norwegian and Finnish companies in India, says this report in The Hindu. Nordic countries are providing green technologies to India. At the Nordic-India Summit held in Copenhagen in May 2022, the five Nordic prime ministers and prime minister Modi agreed to intensify cooperation on digitalisation, renewable energy, maritime industries and the circular economy. Denmark is helping India with ports and logistics. Trade ministers of Norway and Finland visiting India together  Feb 9-10 describe the efforts to provide Nordic technology solution in green transition to India. Trade between Norway and India has doubled in the last 3 years and the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund is likely to become on the largest investors in India at $17.6 billion. Vestre us Norway's Minister of Trade and Industry, Skinnari is Finnish Minister of Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade. 

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Mr. Macron told television viewers of a national debate with Le Pen that "she wants to take France out of the European Union, she just doesn't say it." The debate showed the clear differences between Macron and Le Pen on the European Union, on Russia and the invasion of Ukraine, on Le Pen's ties with Russia that Macron noted  during the debate. Le Pen brought up the raising of the pension age to 65 which Macron says would be done very gradually over 10 years, and Macron responded by saying this was to be able to increase pension payments and increase investments in the economy.

A snap poll by polling firm Elabe showed that for viewers of the debate the candidate they found most convincing was Macron at 59% and Le Pen at 39%.

 

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China follows Japan in the proportion of its elderly population at a similar juncture in its development. A paper from Japan's Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry pointed out that the proportion of child and elderly populations in China as of 2020 was similar to Japan's in 1990. China reached that inflection point faster with fertility rate falling from 2.74 to 1.28 in a 4 decade period, while Japan's fell from 1.75 to 1.29. That paper also shows India's proportion of child and elderly population in 2020 was similar to China's in 1980 when its economic boom took off. The overconcentration of supply chain in China is now being addressed by business in US and Europe after the pandemic showed its weakness. Prime minister Modi says this overconcentration has hurt even and balanced development worldwide.

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Russia is expected to earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports in 2022, up more than a third from 2021. This more than anything else is supporting the currency. It also means Europe will continue to buy Russian oil and gas through 2022. The rest of the reason experts say for the resilience of the rouble is  that Russia has put in place capital controls and raised interest rates to 20%. This they say is an artificial boost and the rouble is likely to weaken in the long term. 

The steps take to keep the value of the rouble and also the damage to the trading and economic relationship Russia had with the world after invasion will reduce growth in Russia. Growth of 2.8% in 2022 will turn into 10-15% contraction in the economy in 2022. 

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Elon Musk of Tesla says the number of fake and spam accounts is "wildly higher" than the 5% that Twitter says. He wants to terminate the agreement with Twitter on grounds that Twitter made "materially inaccurate  representations." Twitter is planning to file a lawsuit to compel Mr. Musk to keep the agreement. 

Mr. Musk's Tesla Motors lost a third of its value during the period of the agreement. The slow growth in the US economy and in China presents problems for Tesla.

Mr. Musk's statement about social media as the future of civilization is more evidence of the kind of statements that are thrown around these days with a complete misconception of what civilization, health, moral wellbeing, even common sense are about.
 

 

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This BBC report looks at the hundreds of thousands of jobs being created by Biden through clean energy investments and manufacturing across the US,  including in Republican held states. This is changing the economy in places like Dalton, Georgia offering new hope for the future after decades of neglect under Republican and Democratic administrations of Bush, Obama and Trump. It is only president Biden who has turned things around on infrastructure and manufacturing in America, and done something about it. With trillions of dollars in investment in infrastructure, clean energy and manufacturing this will change the face of America. Biden said this in the debate, yet most media people don't get it, and have their heads stuck in the past unable to see the great changes that are happening in America for the first time, changes that will shape the decades ahead.

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The NFP Front populaire alliance of socialist parties wins the most seats 200+ in early projections in the National Assembly in France. Macron's Ensemble party comes in second with about 150 seats, and the RN National Rally third with about 130 seats. This is the most closely watched election in European Union in decades. Voter turnout was 67% up from 48% in the last election. Only the Front Populaire called for investment in the French economy- not the Macron Ensemble or the Le Pen RN party- and taking serious cost of living action for gas prices, food prices, transport prices, for the struggling lower and middle classes in France. With corporations and the super rich paying their fair share- also a modest share- investment of $140 billion is planned for infrastructure, manufacturing, jobs and wages, climate change action in the French Nation.