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Antonis Samaras continues his efforts to get the EU to agree to a two year extension for deficit targets agreed to in the March 202 bailout. He meets Merkel in Berlin, Aug. 24 and Hollande in Paris, Aug. 25. Merkel's coalition partners the Free Democrats oppose an extension. The opposition Social Democrats leader Steinmeier tells the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper "its not very smart to abandon all conditions for aid over an extension of 12 months." Samaras tells the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper: "our economy shrank 27%. Greece is bleeding, It is really bleeding." And German finance minister Schauble tells Germany's SWR2 radio that its too early for Greece to come back and say the agreed aid is insufficient considering that its ony 6 months since the March 2012 agreement. Merkel and other leaders in the Christian Democrats say they will wait till a report from the troika (the EU, ECB and the IMF) in October 2012 before responding.

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In getting the support of an overwhelming majority of Senators to support Ukraine aid Mitch McConnell plays a key role. His remarks on the floor of the US Senate underscored the gravity of this moment in the Congress: "Make no mistake: Delay in providing Ukraine the weapons to defend itself has strained the prospects of defeating Russian aggression. Dithering and hesitation have compounded the challenges we face. Today’s action is overdue, but our work does not end here. Trust in American resolve is not rebuilt overnight. Expanding and restocking the arsenal of democracy doesn’t just happen by magic.” President Biden's effort will be remembered. It is similar to what happened when Harry Truman had to persuade a war weary country and the US Congress in 1948 to pass bill for aid to Greece and Turkey to prevent an imminent Communist takeover with support from the Soviet bloc. McConnell will be remembered for his action, so will Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator Schumer and other Republicans, Democrats that worked hard to get a decisive vote for Ukraine aid of 79 For to 18 Against, with 15 Republicans and 3 Democrats voting against. Alabama Senator shifted to a yes vote saying most of that $61 billion of aid to Ukraine will be spent in the US to hire American workers in defense industries. A $10 billion loan provision with forgiveness included was a way to get the former president to support it. On the third try America's Congress gets it through in a decisive manner with overwhelming support. This is not unlike the efforts before, when Aid to Greece and Turkey had to be passed through Congress under president Harry Truman in 1948 with both countries facing a danger of Communist takeover supported by the Soviet bloc with only US support keeping democracy in both Greece and Turkey. Even in 1948 to a war weary country Harry Truman had to persist and get the support he did from the US Congress as president Biden did today April 23, 2024. ...

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The Freedom Party with anti-immigration position gets 28% of the vote with centrist People's Party which is said to have handled the recent floods well at 26%, and the Social Democrats at 21%. This leaves the only prospect of a government of the Centrist parties with the Social Democrats. It also shows that Socialist party leader Mette Frederiksen, prime minister of Denmark since 2019, is right that immigration simply distracts from important economic issues of cost of living and wages for workers and families, that immigration should be stopped so that other important issues for working class families can be addressed.This is also the view of Labour Party leader Keir Starmer in Britain and of Biden-Harris in the US who want to see the Republican Lankford legislation closing the Border passed and which Harris promises to have it brought to her desk to sign.

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Bernie Sanders with 46% of the delegates, 13.4 million votes, 22 states, and many of the young people in the U.S. behind him, told a news reporter at his home in the final sprint two weeks before the election- he plans to see the major planks of the Democratic platform implemented. He said Clinton is progressive on a number of issues, but the platform is more progressive with upward mobility a critical concern. Sanders played a critical role in shaping the platform. He says he opposes someone from Wall Street in positions of Treasury Secretary, Trade Representative, and will make known his views who would be best in these positions, including Attorney General. Sanders is supported in the Senate by Senators Sherrod Brown, Jeff Merkley, and Elizabeth Warren. Warren has campaigned with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, and both support minimum wage, women's rights. WIth a win for Democrats in the Senate Sanders will become either the chairman of the Budget Committee, or with his preference chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. His main goal now is to see key economic Cabinet positions that affect upward mobility, intergenerational mobility, which is damaged today for the middle and working class, go to persons who would do the most to improve it.  ...

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A ZDF poll in Dec. 2016 shows 64% of the German people support chancellor Merkel's decision to run for fourth term. Of CDU supporters 89% support Merkel. If the election were held today CDU/CSU would win 36%, SPD 21%, Greens 11% and FDP 5%. Schulz is a lot more popular than Sigmar Gabriel in the SPD. About 51% of the German people support Martin Schulz, current head of the European parliament, Gabriel gets only 29%. With SPD supporters Schulz has 64%. Merkel could form a government with Greens and FDP support. See the related article on Greens and CDU positions coming closer.

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A government watchdog in Germany keeps track of what members of Germany's parliament the Bundestag earn in secondary income from speaking fees and other sources. The watchdog is called Abgeordnetenwatch or parliamentarian-watch. German parliamentarians are now required to list what bracket they are in with the highest at 250,000 euros with no ceiling set. One exception is for lawyers, consultants and farmers who can avoid transparency for upto 3.3 million euros. Unusually these professional backgrounds are left as exceptions. Still Germany is making an effort in this direction where such an effort is absent in the U.S. leading to a credibility gap for established parties and politicians, and leaving an opening for criticism from outsiders who can say they have no connection to lobbyists. German members of parliament earn an income of 9300 euros a month.

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Senators Murphy and Cornyn have helped pass legislation on gun control and mental health, public safety, with the support of all Democrats and 15 Senators from Republicans including majority leader McConnell. This comes after shooting in their home states and the two shootings at an elementary school and a supermarket in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo, New York. The bill passed the Senate 65 to 34 and crossed the 60 vote filibuster threshold which was a barrier in the past. Only two senators from the 15 Republicans are up for election this year, Romney faces an election in 2024, four are retiring and 8 senators of the 15 are up for reelection in 2026. This made a compromise possible separating those who wanted strict gun control from those who want no gun control from the compromise group to achieve a consensus that all could vote for.

 

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It was not till 1.39 am in the early hours of the morning of January 7, 2023, that the just elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy swore in all the new members of the 118th House. This ended a week of voting that went into 15 rounds before five Republican member holdouts of 20 rebels voted "present" to make it possible to elect Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker. A bitter fight led to concessions being made to Freedom Caucus members who wanted to limit spending and cut spending on infrastructure and defense. McCarthy opted for the route of repeated ballots to avoid making concessions on who controls key committees and to limit concessions to ab out 20 rebel members of the Republican Congress. The vast majority of remaining members do not share these views including Democrats who make up about half of the House and many Republican members of Congress.

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This article in the Financial Times says during a time when income distribution in the US no longer works it is important not to repeat the mistakes made under Clinton and Obama. Biden's appointment of Omarova as Comptroller of the Currency is an effort by Biden to set a new direction. Omarova has considered the direct placing of digitally transferred dollars into the accounts of people in the US who have fallen behind in her paper "The People's Ledger." This is seen as an effort by Biden to get back to an America that works for ordinary Americans.

Anything less would be disastrous for Democrats and even some Republicans politically. A big part of the problem is that financial institutions and markets left to themselves no longer allocate capital in productive or even understandable ways that help the American people.

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An initial deposit to rebuild the broken American water, transportation and other infrastructure, including building broadband, is agreed to by a group of Republican senators with president Biden. Democrats including president Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders see this as part of a bigger effort to rebuild the nation's infrastructure after decades of neglect. Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, says three essentials were covered- the cost, the scope and how to pay for it. 

Simultaneously the Senate will move forward with a larger bill. Not in this $1 trillion package are Mr. Biden's original $2.3 billion infrastructure package with hundreds of billions in funding for home care, housing and workforce development, and a separate $1.8 trillion plan for childcare and education. A process called reconciliation will be adopted in the Senate for these broader parts of the Biden plan to be passed.

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Mistakes under Merkel continue under the Greens and Social Democrats. Germany fails to invest in its solar industry even as the fight against climate change ramps up and the need for solar energy is growing rapidly. Manufacturers of solar cells in east Germany that remained under Merkel- surviving Chinese investment ramped up to overcome a German lead in solar- by pursuing niche markets, are still failing to get the federal government's attention and support. This NYT report shows the situation in Germany as Chinese imports of solar take up 97% of the market. China sends solar panels to Germany and the EU at below production costs this NYT report says, with the US having erected barriers to Chinese imports to build its own manufacturing capabilities with Biden's support. Product intended for America is now put in the European market pushing prices down even further. 

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Jimmy Carter is collecting eulogies at 99 years. He has outlived all presidents. Carter lives with his wife Rosalynn in a two bedroom one story rambler in rural Georgia since 1961, in a house that is so plain and simple that it can only be compared to one that dates back to the mid fifties the simple house in Independence Missouri in which US President Harry Truman lived after leaving Washington in 1952. Both two of the most revered Democrats of this century. At a time when Mr. Reagan has a diminished reputation from all the wars in the Middle East that started from his policies and the failure of laissez faire in bringing fairness to working people and families in America, Truman, Carter and LBJ are seeing their reputations enhanced to a remarkable degree. Building on the work of FDR and Truman, LBJ helped to build Social Security and Medicare for a fairer, better America respecting the dignity of men and women.

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Democrats working to challenge the big cuts planned by Republicans in federal, state and local spending on everything from education to essential services.

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Questions remain about how the U.S. budget battle and possible shutdown of government will affect the political support for the Democrats and Republicans.

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A Republican move for a 3 month extension of the U.S. debt ceiling to provide time to reach a negotiated deal with Democrats.

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Republicans increase support among Latinos from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020 and 37% in 2024, a one point gain in 2024. Democrats support at 68% 2016, 62% in 2020, and 56% in 2024. Both parties are talking a tough law and order line on immigration at the Border.

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Matt Miller, a former Clinton aide, says both U.S. parties have failed to do serious problem solving. The reason is that both are looking primarily for election advantage and are not interested in blending the best of liberal and conservative thinking. He even goes so far as to say both parties don't trust the public enough to lay out all the facts openly and explain what action needs to be taken. This is clearly true in one of many examples- the way Clinton advisor Bowles and Republican Senator Simpson took up the job of coming up with a deficit reduction plan looking at things from all angles, and laying out all the facts. Contrast that with the way a Democratic president Obama shied away from openly discussing Bowles-Simpson's closing of most tax expenditures as a key a part of a new action plan. Republican leaders Boehner, Cantor, McConnell, instead of seriously challenging the Democrats to take up the Bowles-Simpson or Rivlin-Domenici proposals, focussed their attention on defunding the government unless certain conditions were met. Serious debates and discussion that should have taken place to arrive at a consensus never took place, eroding the credibility of politicians of both parties, as Miller points out. The failure of leadership brings America back to its roots in community organizing through independent intitiative at all levels for crucial problem-solving discussion. This is the way to arrive at a consensus of what needs to be done for renewing America....

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The first use of chemical agents in Europe since 1945 in the poisoning of a former Russian spy led to strong coordinated action by the European Union countries, Germany, Britain and France with the U.S. Trump administration. This NYT report shows how the action was taken and the meetings of Macron, Theresa May and Merkel that led to strong action. Because Russia is energy supplier to Europe and the Social Democrats in Germany as part of a coalition in Germany not favoring strong action earlier governments in the EU shied away from such action.

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Brandenburg Berlin metropolitan region of which Brandenburg and city of Berlin are separate states remains a strong economic region. This is where Germany has evolved under ruler Frederick since the end of the Thirty Years War in 1648. Dietmar Woidke of ruling Social Democrats is expected to win a fourth term in office with the SPD expecting 25% of the vote in the important state of Brandenburg next to Berlin. Even though the AfD right wing party is expected to do well approaching 25% of the vote, there are other factors at work. Sara Wagenknecht has rebranded the Die Linke Left party with immigration policy that is similar to policies now being accepted in Denmark, France, Netherlands and other EU countries that see the need to restrict immigration, drawing 15% support. A good example being Mette Frederiksen, Social Democrats in Denmark. A coalition with the Christian Democrats CDU with about 15% expected vote and Greens with less than 5% is likely for about 45% of the vote. Other factors that show a stable Brandenburg are the economy with the new regional airport hub of Berlin Brandenburg airport, a new Tesla factory, rich natural resources a third of the state of 2.6 million people being filled with forests and lakes, and a stable population after the reunification in 1990 without rural depopulation as in other parts of East Germany, only 12% people of immigrant background including Wagenknecht.   ...

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The U.S. House of Representatives votes 285-144 to suspend the debt ceiling till Feb. 7, 2014. The deal forged in the Senate by Democrat Reid and Republican McConnell passed in th Senate by 81-18. The U.S. stock markets closed with the DJIA at 15374, up 1.6% compared to Sept 30 when the government shutdown began. The Republicans opposing the passage outnumbered those supporting it 144 to 87 in the House of Representatives. Because this was a repeat of similiar failure to reach agreement and last minute deals in 2012 and 2011 the equity markets appear to have taken the conflict between the two parties in stride.

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For a long time Democrats used Latinos as a captive voter base leading to serious errors in policy such as on the border issues for illegal migrant flow. All this has changed as Latinos started to think for themselves and think independently.

DJT gained 42% overall of the Latino vote, and 47% of the Latino men vote. There are now 36.2 million Latinos eligible to vote 2.53 times the number in 2000 and growing, largest after whites.

It was a decade worth of effort by Republicans to break the monopoly of the Latino vote and its misuse as almost an entitlement by Democrats. In 2016 it was 28 percent of the Latino vote for Republicans, in 2020 it was 35% a 7 percentage point gain, and in 2024 42% another gain of 7 percentage points. It bodes well for America that voters think independently.

 

 

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Senator Manchin wants other countries or regions such as the European Union to go first with the global minimum tax of 15%. Holdouts Poland and Hungary have not agreed to the 15% tax in the EU. After that the US could follow. Mr. Manchin is a Democrat whose vote is needed for Congress to pass the legislation. Currently the tax is set at 10.5% after legislation passed by president Trump.

Much of the funding for HEIRS - for Health, Education, Infrastructure, Retirees and Society- has to come from better collection of taxes, so that everyone pays their fair portion of taxes which tech companies are not doing in the last decade. 

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Changes in Eastern Europe, first with the departure of Sebastian Kurz after a second scandal. The Greens party in the coalition insisted that he resign. In the Czech Republic the government of prime minister Andrej Babis was voted out of office. A liberal-conservative three party coalition won 28% of the vote, and the Pirates and Mayors party won 16% of the vote. The two alliances won 108 seats in the 200 member lower house. Babis headed a minority government of ANO party, Social Democrats and supported by Communist party,(ANO is yes in Czech language), with many scandals, and opposed EU's climate change policies, says DW.com. 

With the changes in Austria this offers new opportunities for a closer European Union as Eastern Europe changes.

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Bump in the Washington Post cites the weekly poll from Gallup showing Trump's job approval rating with Republicans is at 84% among Republicans. Another poll from Survey Monkey shows 75% of Republicans are fine with the firing of FBI Director Comey by Trump. Republicans at this time see the firing as a distraction from other issues on the Republican agenda. Fox News presents a very different version of the story and it is what most Republicans watch. The health care bill from Republicans in Congress and the tax plan are also favored by a majority of Republicans in the polls, says Bump. Independents are wary and skeptical, Republicans see Trump as a way to get their own agenda implemented, and Democrats have serious issues with Trump.