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Issues and controversy about coverage by New York Times NYT on the  Gaza War, Transgender that are obscuring important needed coverage on other important topics.  Topics such as infrastructure, workers and wages, changes in the economy, economic crises in other countries, cost of living action, climate change action get less coverage. The Washington Post has some pioneering work on Climate Change Action, Well Being and Nature. The Atlantic is moving in a new direction with indepth coverage. The Wall Street Journal is looking at changes in the economy in a new way.

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S&P forecast is for India's economy to be the third largest by 2030 at 6.3% annual growth. Positive consumer sentiment, domestic demand and increasing state investment are increasing growth to 7.8% and 7.6% in the second and third quarter 2023. A stable government that is focused on economic growth and capital investment projects increases the economic prospects of the Indian economy into 2024. Most of the northern and northwestern, and middle Indian states have investment coming from a coordinated push by state and federal government run economic sectors. Underlying this effort is building of infrastructure, shipping, transport and logistics, that will support growth of key industries to 2030, when the Indian economy is expected to be the third largest in the world. 

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A 35% increase in capital spending by the Indian government and crowding in private investment will be the basis of growth in the Indian economy says India's finance minister Ms. Sitharaman at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meetings in Bali, Indonesia. Sitharaman said evidence based policy making was vital for resilient economy in India.

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Japan, this report shows was in a weak position and was willing to concede- its auto industry could absorb a 15% tariff but the rest of it's economy must be protected. Any economic weakness would be exposed and conditions mght deteriorate in the Japanese economy by letting things go past August 1 and steep tariffs. Luttnick's idea of investment fund was supported by Japan for investing $400-$550 billion in the US with 50% of profits going to the US. Earlier NYT report by Ana Swanson shows the American side of the deal where Howard Luttnick, with experience as a bond trader and on Wall Street, came up with the unconventional idea of an investment fund knowing that the LDP facing elections and  fearing loss of  its majority was unwilling to give DJT what he wanted on some trade issues. Japanese negotiators decided that giving some way on auto tariffs accepting a 15% flat tariff on auto imports was one way to accomodate the Americans and protect other Japanese industries exports from steep tariffs. One would not know this from reading the WSJ, but DJT with Luttnick, Bessent and Greer as negotiators with Akazawa and Ishiba of Japan have won a historic and significant win for America in creating a level playing field in trade. It also sets a precedent for all other trade deals.  ...

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The US received a boost in the economy with larger public spending than the European Union countries and more spending on vaccines. This is changing quickly as the EU has secured a large order of vaccines from Pfizer and other companies. France and Germany are now making steady progress in their vaccination drives. Britain has already secured results in the NHS vaccination drive, a leader in the field.

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US - EU Trade Agreement with 15% tariff on EU imports to the US and $750 billion in US exports over 3 years of LNG, oil and gas, semiconductors etc. Including military purchases. EU would invest $650 billion in the US.  Aircraft and their components, particular chemicals, semiconductor equipment, some agricultural products looked set to be exempted from the new tariffs placed by the US on EU imports into US. To even the playing field where German and Japanese cars had a free ride into the American market since 1980, 15% tariffs lower than the 24-25% proposed tariff will be place on German cars. Business in the US sees this as a least bad outcome says WSJ. Yet this ignores that the US gave special privileges to Japanese and American car makers to export into the US since 1980 with no corresponding benefit to the US in other industries or to the US auto industry. This gives the US industries and the US science and technologies opportunities to get back into the game of exporting, opportunities that the US gave to Europe and Japan since 1960. It also strengthens the US economy by helping restore the US as the industrial power it was from 1920-1980.  ...

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Some of the major decisions that are shaping the development of a modern state and advanced economy in India come from legislation and judicial decisions taken by Justice Khanwilkar of the Supreme Court of India. Laws on effective governance by preventing leakages and corruption, on the climate and rivers, on foreign interference in elections, on women's rights, setting historical events as in Gujarat in the right context, and the Central Vista project were upheld and judicial decisions written by Justice Khanwilkar. It is these contributions from this eminent jurist from Maharashtra, along with that of able administrators in government ministries such as Sitharaman, Jaishankar and Vaishnaw, and many others under the leadership of the prime minister that made possible much of the work of the last decade to make the Indian economy meet the aspirations of young people and look to 2030 with confidence to become the third largest modern economy in the world. ...

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It is too much to expect central bankers to solve the US economy's problems, especially with rates nearly zero, and no agreement between the political parties before mid-term elections. The Federal Reserve by itself cannot fix the economy's problems, with the US economy facing prospects of deflation in 2011; and local governments cutting back as they face revenue shortfalls. Deficit concerns have led to inaction on further stimulus or help to local governments, and the Bush tax cuts are expiring shortly. In 2011 austerity cuts will be the singular theme in the western world, and these cuts are of a magnitude not seen in 40 years. In this situation there is only so much the US Fed can do.

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Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

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Louis Uchitelle talks to Stanley Moses, an economist at Hunter College in New York, and others, to find out if things will work out as expected with the $700 billion or $800 billion that Obama plans to invest in infrastructure, energy, and other things to generate the 3 million jobs and investment. Will this generate private investment like the Interstate Highway program which ocurred during the Eisenhower days and set the economy on fast growth, or will it generate enthusiasm and jobs for a few years, and just as Roosevelt backed off in 1937 to let private investment pick up he found that it was still too weak to make a difference. The point that he hears from some experts like Moses is that the current times are setting up for a deep downturn, so that is not reminscent of the Eisenhower years when the economy was getting on the growth track after the war years. Its not exactly like the Roosevelt years either, because of the many changes that have ocurred in a modern economy, but in terms of the mood, the collapsing investment, consumer spending and credit and the collapsing growth in emerging markets which hits exports, this is a situation that is not easily reversed with a few years of aggressive government spending. Things have to change in the public's mood and in private industry's initiative to invest that would return the economy to a growth pattern, and this may be a long time coming with so much deterioration happening at the same time....

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Portugal's economy is shrinking. Austerity measures taken in exchange for 78 billion euros from the IMF and the EU under a May, 2011 agreement have reduced the prospects of growth. The ratio of debt to GDP was 107% in May 2011. It is expected to reach 118% in 2013 because the economy is shrinking- even though Portugal will have achieved its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Portugal's finance minister, Vitor Gaspar, a former ECB research director, has reduced the budget deficit by one third by cutting spending, pensions, wages and increasing taxes. GDP fell by 1.5% in 2011 and is expected to decline by 3% in 2012. Even the IMF says in its recent economic review that if growth is lacking the debt of Portugal "would not be sustainable." David Bencek, analyst at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, says that the Portuguese economy lacks the structure needed to grow, and therefore has debt that is unsustainable. Portugal lacks a manufacturing base and exports, and was just emerging from decades of neglect by military rulers of education and other essential parts of a modern economy when it joined the EU....

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The slowing economy of Turkey as the wars in Syria and Iraq take their toll reducing demand for Turkey's exports. The conflict with Russia also affects Turkish exports. Growth slows to 2-3% a year in 2015-2016.

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Nathaniel Tapin says about China's debt laden economy and struggling property developers that this has been seen before. What matters most is the confidence household borrowers have in the country to buy homes and spend versus putting more money into savings. And this confidence that that has been the strength of the economy for three decades is fading. About 12 million jobs in the internet platform economy were lost in 2020-2022. This absorbed a fourth of the Chinese graduating from colleges each year. The manufacturing sector is affected by declining demand overseas and cannot pick up for this. Much of this is a result of Xi's government efforts to tamp down debt of housing developers, to reduce housing speculation, to limit the power of internet companies, and develop a fairer economy, and these were policy decisions not easily reversed. A pervasive pessimism is leading to a disinclination to spend or buy a house. Surveys of Bank of China show inclination to save increased by 15 percentage points to 58% in second quarter 2023. In the past Chinese put money in homes as a way to deposit money in a savings account, homes were sold even before they were built. This cash was passed on to property developers and in turn the local governments benefited by selling the land to property developers. After property developers could not pay interest on debt and collapsed the households decided to pay down their mortgages and $28 billion went to pay down residential mortgage debt in first 6 months of 2023.  ...

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The Economist points to Mexico's potential and compares it favorably to Brazil and China. Mexico's people are better educated and have higher standards of living than most developing countries including Brazil. Technical education is one of Mexico's strengths and it has good management talent. It suffered badly in the global financial crisis of 2008 because of the recession in the U.S., but it does not have to lower its sights and live with lower growth as the U.S. economy suffers a slowdown. As Chinese wages have risen, Mexico is looking better as a place to invest. And even as Brazil's credit markets getting overheated, there is much room for credit growth in the Mexican economy. Mexico could achieve a growth rate higher by about 2.5 percentage points according to one estimate, if it attracts more foreign investment and opens up the oil industry to foreign investment, implements reform for labor markets and opens up many sectors to competition. It needs to restricts the monopolies granted to businesses such as Telefonos Mexico run by Carlos Slim, as well as other cartels and monopolies to achieve higher economic efficency....

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David Stockman, director of the Office of Management and Budget under Reagan, is interviewed by Tom Keene. Stockman says the US has $52 trillion of debt on a $14.5 trillion economy, a ratio of 3.6 times GDP. Historically, before 1980, it has been around 1.6. This debtification of the US, he says, is the major problem facing the US today. Stockman sees little or no economic growth in the next 5 to 10 years, as debt reduction progresses.

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Although the Russian economy has weathered the Ukraine war with 3.6% growth estimated by Rossstat and 3% by IMF in 2023, this comes with the economy dependent on heavy military spending. Military spending on defense budget increases to $119 billion in 2024, and increase of an astounding 90% from 2021. It has boosted wages in construction and aided certain industrial regions near Moscow and St Petersburg, and boosted manufacturing with more products made at home. The oil and gas revenues decreased by 23% in 2023 over 2022. After 2 years of war and particularly after contraction in 2022 the Russian economy is recovering and has surprised most forecasters. The problem with military industrial complex growth is that it leads to uneven growth with negect of some areas. In Russia the reduced access to western advanced technology is compensated by increase in technological capacity of countries such as China. A bigger problem is the loss of human resources during the war in Ukraine, and Russians who left the country seeking better lives in other countries.  ...

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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Pollock's interview with Geroge Shultz, Reagan's senior economic advisor and Secretary of State, at his office in the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He says the U.S. can find its way out of the current economic crisis the way it did during the early Reagan years. On the Fed's loose monetary policy he says the Bernanke Fed's contribution to the economic crisis was very easy money. Now that we have it we realize that its going to take something different from easy money to get the economy moving- not just more money. Three quarters of the debt issued by the U.S. in the last year was bought by the Fed, and the Fed is monetizing debt when it buys debt because at some time this ends up getting out into the economy. Shultz sees the tax rules as being about more than rates. Corporate tax rates should be lowered by cleaning up preferences. But what is most important is predictability and an environment where business feels there is less uncertainty when investing. Shultz says Romney should read his memo to Reagan before Reagan assumed office, excerpted in the WSJ, "Advice to a New President," May 26, 2012. He also recommends John Taylor's new book- "First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity." ...

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According to areport by the Manufacurer's Alliance/MAPI USA manufacturing output is expected to decline by 12% this year. Steel production fell 61% in the first quarter over prior year, motor vehicles and parts dropped 41% and semiconductors dropped 40%. Medical equipment production was up 2% in the first quarter, and communications gear production up 6%. THe chief economist of MAPI, Mr Mecksworth, says when the economy turns and depleted inventories are replaced growth will still be slow, because companies will be saving money and paying off debt for many years. In his words the whole deleveraging of the economy will depress the growth rate.

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Lilith Verstrynge, former party secretary of Podemos, and daughter of a Belgian politician, describes the rise and collapse of Podemos, a popular party in Spain in a coalition duringthe Covid years with the Socialist party in Spain led by Pedro Sanchez. A 31 year old who now teaches in Paris describes Podemos- a social movement based on online support and no organization under Pablo Iglesias which collapses in Spain by 2024. Podemos or translated into Spanish as "We Can" emerged from the 2009 banking speculation caused financial crisis and the years that followed with the Eurozone financial crisis which entangled the economies of Spain, Ireland, UK, Greece, and other nations in the European Union. As he crisis receded and with action taken under Pedro Sanchez's Socialist government in the areas of housing, support services, and the economy, as the economy improved the movement gradually fizzled out. Under Sanchez the Catalonian independence movement also receded with elections in Barcelona and Catalonia brining to power a socialist government. This period in Spanish political upheaval is described by Verstrynge in The Guardian, who retired from politics in her early 30's as a result. She says without any organizational structure to support such online movements once the initial surge in interest is passed there is no way to sustain it. ...

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Malpass call sfor astrong dollar policy as the way to prosperity for the US, at atime when other countries are looking to promote domestic consumption for growth by having stong yen in the case of new Japanese policy and a stable but stronger yuan in the case of new Chinese policy. With high levels of debt is easier for the US government to let a weaker dollar reduce the size of its debt, but ith has other bad consequences in promoting jobs and growth in the domestic economy.

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New information shows a crisis is developing in higher education as student debt passes $1 trillion with the unrelenting rise in the cost of college. Higher debt levels is leading to higher droput rates. According to think tank Education Sector, 30 percent of college students taking out loans dropped out of school, compared to 25% ten years ago. And work can be a large factor as students take parttime jobs to lower the loan burden- half of college dropouts attributed dropping out to work, according to a 2009 study by Public Agenda. It also adds another burden to the productive potential of the U.S. economy. The director of the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University, Anthony Carnevale, estimates the cost to the U.S. economy at half a trillion dollars in terms of skills not available for increasing economic output and income lost for dropouts.

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Value added industrial output in China increased by only 4.4% in August, showing deteriorating economy. Fixed asset investment outside rural areas, was up to 5.5% in Jan-August 2019 compared to year earlier period. Premier Li Kequiang says "Against the backdrop of a complicated international situation and given the higher  base of comparison, it is not very easy for China to still sustain a medium to high growth speed of above 6%." 
China's economy expanded at 6.3% in the first half of 2019- the government's target is between 6 and 6.5%.

In the light of this situation in the economy China is taking aflexible approach to trade negotiations with U.S. trying to separate issues of competition and technology of the long run from trade, and seeking areas of agreement after the rhetoric of the past 6 months.

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Straits of Hormuz 21 miles wide at its narrowest point in the Gulf where Iran faces Oman and Saudi Arabia.  Hormuz waterway that carries 90% of Iranian oil exports to China, 82% of all Asian oil imports, could be disrupted but it is very unlikely because of the $67 billion in oil exports from Iran according to its central bank, 90% of these oil exports going through Hormuz waterway go to China. It would be to unfund it's own oil based economy and affect China not the US or Germany. Germany gets most of its oil supplies from Norway, US and other sources, US is self sufficient after shale oil production surge.

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The author Li Congjun, is head of the Xinhua News agency, official press agency of the People's Republic of China. He calls for rebalancing the global economy with China depending more on domestic consumption, efforts to restrain the excesses of property and asset price bubbles, and renewed focus on technology and investment.