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The euro moves closer to a fiscal union. See the interview with French finance minister Lagarde. This mean conditionalities to loans made to member countries in financial crisis. The Journal editorial asks how readily will the Irish or Spanish people accept conditions, reforms and tax increases set by German and French leaders. EU leaders have decided that the recent change does not require approval in eurozone countries. The option of debt restructuring with longer debt repayment terms and haircuts for investors, with German and French banks accepting losses.

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The Indian economy is expected to grow by 8.5% this year compared to 6.5% in 2009. But a major problem looms in the high inflation facing India. The poor monsoon in 2009 led to higher prices for foodgrains, lentils, and sugar. And the government's cut in the fuel subsidies will lead to more efficient use of energy, but will lead to one additional percentage point in wholesale price inflation according to the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. The whoesale price index in India went up by 10.5% in June from the prior year, and this after a 10.1% increase in May. Bloomberg's tracking of consumer prices in the Asia-Pacific region shows India at the top of 17 countries in inflation, and consumer prices paid by industrial and farm workers in India are shown to be increasing at 14% annually. The government is coming under criticism for not releasing more grains from its stocks to soften the impact of last year's monsoon. The Manmohan Singh government finds inflation at above 10% unacceptable and is looking for further action from the central bank. Reserve Bank of India governor Subbarao has raised rates 3 times since March 2010 to 5.5%, and a further increase is expected at its next meeting on July 27. A better harvest in September, from a better monsoon season, could help lower food prices. If this does not happen, more tightening by the central bank could hurt economic growth, putting the government in a quandary....

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The Southern Nevada Water Authority has cut water consumption coming from the Colorado River by 25% over 2 decades even as population has grown by 50%. It has done this by fining people for excessive use and paying landowners to remove turf grass. One television ad shows a person being scolded for excessive water use and the line "Vegas is enforcing water waste big time."  As a result of water conservation, water pricing, and replacing turf grass, the seven states fed by the Colorado River and the reservoir Lake Mead have seen much improvement in water usage. Lake Mead hit by a drought in the years 2000-2015 is now risen by 25 feet to 1096 feet in 2020 making it 44% full, the highest level in 6 years. The water conservation efforts in Southern California have yielded results. Metropolitan Water District of Southern California gave out $350 million in rebates for replacing turf grass. Irvine Ranch Water District cut drinking water use by 20% with higher pricing for inefficient use beyond a set limit. Building codes are amended preventing turf grass in front of homes. Lawns and golf courses replaced turf grass, with some golf courses using desert landscapes. In this area of 10 million people 200 million square feet of turf grass was taken out. ...

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Harris attended the Munich Security Conference 3 years in a row and met with world leaders in the last 2 years. She has also learned from working with Biden who was over a period of 30 years chairman or senior most member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. No other president comes close. Harris has as foreign policy adviser Phillip Brown who did his PhD. on French Gaullist security policy. Her close links and great understanding of India are also an asset as India is a key part of US policy in Asia with Japan and Australia, and is expected to be the third largest economy in the world over the next decade. This will help in setting economic policy along with foreign policy. Under Biden domestic policy worked hand in hand with foreign policy to achieve domestic policy goals of industrial strength and manufacturing in the US. Harris is likely to continue this policy approach. Harris is a close observer and learner of the conduct of economic policy under Biden, and can add in some ways to bring fresh look at foreign policy. ...

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Britian's Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, on the economic recovery in Britain. He points to total public spending under control, with it dropping from 45% when the Tories entered government to 36.4% in 2015. He also points to the drop in the unemployment rate and the economic plan to cut the remaining budget deficit and show a surplus. This puts Britain in the best position to spend more on defense, says Osborne. Osborne makes a commitment to spend 2% of national income on defense, and raise Britain's defensive and offensive capabilities. This includes buying 138 F35 aircraft from the U.S. manufactured in the U.S. and Britain, and a fleet of maritime patrol aircraft, increasing cybercapabilities by over 75%. It would be backed up by spending 0.7% of national income on overseas development to back hard power with soft power.

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Teachers are packing up classrooms for the last time says this report in WSJ. Worn out by the covid pandemic, under staffed schools and political battles teachers are leaving in large numbers. About 300,000 public school teachers and other staff left the field during the 27 months of the pandemic, according to Bureau of labor Statistics data. More teachers are thinking of doing the same, A National Education Association poll conducted in 2022 found 55% of teachers saying they would leave earlier than planned. Teachers are finding better pay and working environment in other professions and in business. Teachers of younger students in the early grades say teaching should be about kids learning but that isn't true anymore. 

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After being immersed in the world of science the host of many BBC scientific documentaries is now confronted with emotions. Her experience with the pandemic and her own encounter with cancer has changed her conceptions of science. With advanced degrees and work in physics she calls herself intellectually promiscuous. Yet she says when asked about a simple concept of probability she says if something is with 95% probability going to happen, don't be surprised if it doesn't. Emotions matter and she does see the other side of fears when doing a BBC documentary on vaccination, and the emotional response to all the statistics shown to support vaccination efforts by people who are skeptical and have their own emotional responses and fears.

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The importance of free school meals in the UK is shown in this report in The Guardian. It shows about 100,000 school children are suffering in the UK from lack of proper lunches because low income parents cannot afford it and are coming short. It says school teachers are shocked at the pitiful packed lunches children are bringing to school. The Liberal Democrats education spokesperson says the Tory government is snatching school lunches from children by stealth, as it has neglected to increase the limit on household earnings from 7400 pounds to 8575 pounds where it would be if increased for inflation. That would have made 110,000 more children eligible. This appalling and callous situation is the front page story in The Guardian today.

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China is building a new hospital in Wuhan the center of the coronavirus outbreak, to contain the outbreak. The plan is to build it in just 6 days. China has taken a new approach to tackling this health crisis, isolating the area and speeding up action to find solutions to the virus. A shortage of hospital beds and resources in Wuhan led to the decision to build a new hospital rapidly. China's rapid response is the first high speed response and could be a model for future outbreaks. Before this during the SARS crisis in China, and other health crises worldwide, action was taken gradually by hospital and government authorites leading to more deaths and wider spread of disease.

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Captain Tom Moore a soldier from the Second World War II who marks his 100th birthday and has become a national hero in Britain. He decided to take 100 laps in his garden before he turned 100 to thank the Nation Health Service for a surgery of his hip. The activity created a fund raising drive for NHS raising 30 million pounds.

See the Royal Mail mailbox painted blue in his honor for the 100th birthday in this story, and the Spitfire and Hurricane planes flown  by the RAF in his honor. Tom showed humor in adversity, and a mature wisdom, no-nonsense attitude, to be an inspiration for young and old, says Britain's army chief.

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Two professors from the University of Nebraska offer ideas on spouses connecting with each other during retirement. Recognition of the new situation where old roles at work are behind and new relationships have to be cultivated is part of the answer. Building on the good emotional parts that went before is one way to build a connection. Recognizing that taking away work and children makes this different. That one has to build something new and exciting to replace that, to create new pathways to each other and to relearn some things, and build joy in a relationship by talking to each other and recognizing one's frailties openly, creating new meaning from old memories of doing things together.

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Common sense works where activism raises questions about what is being said in ESG- a different grab bag for each person. Larry FInk of Black Rock uses the word exactly for what it is not more not less- that is Transition Investing. Transition Investing being exactly what the word says it is investing in projects that build the transition to a world that is not affected by climate change as it is today. When climate change is real and the dangers are there for all to see, so called environmental, social and corporate governance going under acronym ESG was just too complicated and redundant. Fink has done the right thing. States like Texas are now working with Fink on investments in their state.

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Unbelievable as it may sound David Sanger and Katie Rogers show in this report in the NYT that US China relations are being put on a stable level by Biden and Xi Jinping. The visit to San Francisco is being carefully planned to the last detail to make certain that Xi sees the right things about America and the trip goes well. The slowing economy in China, the rising youth unemployment, have changed th dynamic to the point where Xi will be meeting American industry leaders to attract and retain American investment. WSJ reports $110 billion withdrawn from bond markets in China. EU and AMerican companies withdrawing capital from China and putting some of it into investment in the US called reshoring that Biden supports.

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The monopoly over news publishing in the UK began in 1981 with the purchase of loss making The Times through negotiations with the trade unions.  As shown in The Guardian Rupert Murdoch met with Margaret Thatcher on Jan 3 1981 weeks before the matter was brought up by Thatcher at a cabinet meeting so that it would not be referred to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission. This is revealed in the Thatcher papers held at the Churchill archives in Cambridge 30 years after the event in 2012. This was the year Ronald Reagan's administration replaced Jimmy Carter's administration in 1981. In 2022 Tories Secretary Nadine Torries removed controls that protected the editorial independence of The Times. 

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Microsoft leaders for reasons of climate change action and aid to poor African and Latin American nations see the positives in Harris-Walz focus on investment in the future. A similar situation exists with JP Morgan Chase bank leaders. Intel and Ford Motor Company leaders see the Biden administration investment in American companies for stronger competition with Chinese or Taiwanese companies, and for climate change action by investing in EV industry technologies, in the same way. Overall cutting corporate taxes is not as big a priority for American business as government assistance and support to match the hidden subsidies Taiwan and China, South Korean governments give to their companies in Chips and EV's, other advanced technologies industries.

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China has made a $7 billion investment in road and bridges in Bangladesh. The six kilometer long road and rail bridge over the Padma river was built by China. A 48 kilometer 4 lane highway around Dhaka will be completed in 2025 through China's development assistance. In all 12 roads 21 bridges, and 27 power plants during the Hasina administration, creating 550,000 jobs says Yao Wen, Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh. Other projects are built with Indian assistance trying to keep a balance between the two neighbors. A project over the Teesta river was assigned to India. A naval base south of Chittagong, the BNS Sheikh Hasina, was opened in 2023 with Chinese assistance.

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The Times of London offers this Analysis of Chinese president Xi's visit to Russia for a Victory Day Parade to be attended by 20 countries including Serbia, Venezuela's Maduro, and Brazil's Inacio Lula Da Silva. Soldiers from China will March in the Red Army Parade. Other countries attending are Indonesia, Egypt, Iraq.

XI and Putin have a new common view of the war as aginst the Nazis and Japanese Imperialism. The role of US Gen. Joe Stilwell in uniting Chinese forces to fight the Japanese is not mentioned in history books in China as the focus under Xi has shifted to increase the importance of the common fight in Russia and China aginst Germany and Japan.

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Plan B is to reimpose the tariffs using the Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and Section 301 which puts the tariffs on firm legal footing. In fact the ruling by the ITC Court on the use of emergency powers under IEEPA law said there was already Section 122 on the basis of which serious trade imbalances could be addressed. Trade Adviser Navarro told Bloomberg that this was a possible strategy to reimpose the tariffs. The federal appeals court has allowed the tariffs to remain in place after the ITC ruling. The administration is appealing it to the US Supreme Court saying that the ITC ruling has unfairly jeopardized the president's negotiations with other countries. 

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China's domestic debt has surged to levels that precede a crisis, to 216% of GDP and heading for 271% by 2017 according to Fitch Ratings. As a result president Jinping has taken over control of economic policy and controlling debt, especially local government debt, is now a top priority for 2014. Jinping will head the "leading group" for overall top down reforms, reflecting the new urgency. Local government debt went up 67% from 10.7 trillion yuan to 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.95 trillion) in just 3 years from 2010 to 2013, according to the National Audit Office. About half of this debt is due by the end of 2014, according to Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green. Another risk is that shadow banking with interest rates of 10% are now about 11% of new lending. The option adopted by the government to use central government funds and regulation to restrict lending could make local governments turn increasingly to the shadow bank lenders (trust companies, and informal lenders) making things worse. The other option of tackling it aggressively by letting some companies default has the risk of other lenders raising rates on loans and bonds. This makes solutions tricky and prone to problems of increasing severity. ...

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Edmund Phelps, is 2006 Nobel prize winner and director of the Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University. Phelps offers a deep reflection on capitalism and what it is as a system and isn't, from the insights gathered and knowledge accumulated about its workings- conditions in which operates best, and conditions under which it is stressed or fails. It is the actors and overseer's, the public's ignorance about how the system works, the insights about its advantages and its serious hazards if neglected, that lead him to say we need deep reform and re-education. Capitalist systems, he says, are mechanisms by which economies may generate growth in knowledge- with much uncertainty in the process owing to the incompleteness of knowledge- with growth in that knowledge leading to income growth and job satisfaction. The uncertainty can be serious and dangerous if not accounted for, and the knowledge offers opportunities for personal growth, problem solving and exploration. There has been an intellectual failure in developing a wide understanding of its benefits as well as its serious costs if not kept in check, costs that arise from uncertainty and moral issues of proper behaviours if not properly guided. This is an admirable and clear expression of what capitalism is and how it should be understood....

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The Public Private Investment Program announced by Treasury Secretary Geithner finally gets underway in October 2009. Black Rock, a group led by the Wellington Company and a group led by Alliance Bernstein are private participants in the effort to get private participation to rid banks of bad loan assets. Five of nine money management firms selected by Treasury to buy toxic mortgage related securities have raised the minimum of $500 million from investors each, to qualify for matching government loans. In total the program will allow money management firms to buy up $12 billion in bad assets. THe IMF estimated last week that financial institutions around the world have still on their books $2.8 trillion in troubled mortgages and securities. Only half of that amount has been booked in losses, which leaves $1.4 trillion still to be resolved. $12 billion is less than 1% of this, which begs the question how will this make a difference? Treasury only hopes that this will restart trading in bad assets and help establish market prices for these assets. If unemployment worsens and the economy sees a sudden relapse in the near future this $1.4 trillion in bad assets will continue to create serious problems for financial instituions and the international financial system....

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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

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The political warfare between the two parties Republicans and Democrats complicates help to the automakers being released from the TARP $700 billion by Bush in the months before January transfer to the President elect. Bush is purported to want the Democrats to support the Columbia trade agreement which Obama vigorously opposes on the grounds of violence against union workers in Columbia. Complicating the situation further Obama and environmentalists including Al Gore wnat to see the auto industry help in the light of promoting energy conservation and environmental goals, whereas the industry and the unions and their Michigan supporters like Rep. Dingell and others want to see the aid given without any strings attached. This leaves the danger that both sides may be caught in a situation they could not control, the Bush people with a outgoing President who is struggling to preserve something of his legacy amid dismal ratings, and the Obama people without the experience to handle a situation such as this which is getting increasingly complicated. See the editorial pages of the WSJ on November 10 which said government help should only be given if the current management and board are replaced with new management and board, suggesting government receivership for GM. The management and board of GM which have hung onto their jobs through thick and thin are not likely to volunteer for a change. And the public perception is that the automakers management is responsible for this mess having dragged their feet all the way and used lobbyists to delay having to make the fuel efficient automobiles customers want. And another intractable factor that remains in the background is the collapsing sales of automakers which if it continues would require even bigger amount of government aid to keep operations running and pay workers way beyond the $50 billion that is being discussed, almost unrestricted help. In the meantime the Center for Automotive Research athink tank based in Michigan says about 3 million jobs depend directly of indirectly on the automotive industry and suppliers and services and goods providers to autoworkers. At the rate things are going a further deterioration in the conditions of the industry and further sales losses look likely, and GM's share price has already been placed at zero value by auto analysts at Deutsche Bank. It may well turn out that no one is in control and as the situation lurches from crisis to crisis, both the outgoing and incoming administration might find events happening in rapid fire mode one after another may take GM' s share price down close to zero before any solutions are found to an impasse and action taken. This happened with Lehman Brothers where in the end the failure of Fuld to take decisive and correct action early led to a collapse which the Fed and Treasury let happen. The danger to the economy is that when the story of these events is written years hence it may be recorded that very liitle action was taken to prevent foreclosures and action taken was not taken early or decisively. And individuals like Fuld at Lehman in October and Waggoner at GM in November failed to provide the leadership in the months and years leading into the crisis, leading to its steep and worsening nature on the credit front and on the auto front. ...

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The effects on Greece of a pullback in global financial markets in October 2014. Assurances that the Greek financial system and banking will be supported by the government and the EU. The pullback complicates the Samaras government's plan to exit the bailout program with the IMF early. There is also the prospect of new elections in early 2014 leading to a left of centre Syriza party government. Syriza's Tsipras says he would renegotiate the terms of the debt agreement to reduce debt owed to Germany and other countries in the EU.

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Most Congressmen are skeptical of Obama's plan to give the Fed new powers to meet the kind of emergency created by the glovabal economic crisis. Their concern is that the Fed may let the property bubble develop wihtout taking any action, and that the Fed failed as abank regulator. Congressman Ron Paul is co-sponsoring abill that would require Congressional audits of the Fed, which has the support of two thirds of the House.