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The first six years since 2001 were years of short term quick fix solutions for Afghanistan, and policy since then has not been much better. And considering the tribal nature, hostility to outsiders and history of this vast mountainous country, it is not clear what would have worked and what the realistic goals should be.

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Michael Heise, chief economist of Allianz SE, says the ECB needs to assure financial markets that the deflation risks in the first half of 2015 are not all negative, as the declining price of oil adds to purchasing power in the eurozone economies. He points out that ECB needs to define price stability not as inflation of "nearly 2%" but as inflation of "below 2%," to take into account the impact of declining oil prices on inflation. His concern is about financial markets expecting strong quantitative easing program from the ECB in 2015.

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John Malone offers some frank comments on the economy, on the dollar and the Obama administration. He has little confidence in America's future. The dollar is strengthening he says only because of the situation in Europe in the Mediterranean countries. He says the Obama administration consists mainly of lawyers and advisers, people who are better at dividing the pie, not enlarging the pie, the kind of thing we need so much now. He sees the risks to his company Liberty coming mainly from the economy. He has big concern about the retail side, consumers and the larger economic conditions, the macroeconomic picture. He draws attention to the fact that nobody will make it if America doesn't, and that for the next year or two things will be tough.

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Iraq is a clear example of how the oil reveues may be there but without the mechanism of getting the oil revenues to work creating infrastructure and jobs, and even the basic mechanism of a well functioning civil service and a financial and banking system to put the money to work, things can be quite bleak when they do not have to be. Some of it also is agreement between the communities and leadership to get a consensus on what should be done and how it should be spent. It shows how litttle can be taken for granted in war torn, civil dissension fractured places of the world, even in relatively literate and functioning societies like that of the Arab middle eastern states. See the links to this documenting the difficulties.

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Russian president Medvedev offers his view of the protests in Russia, that Russia is entering a new stage in the development of its political system. Medvedev told his United Russia party: "We are entering a new stage in the development of our political system and we should not close our eyes to that. It has already begun... It began because the old model- which faithfully and truly served our state in recent years, and did'nt serve it badly, and which we all defended- it has exhausted itself." He wanted to see United Russia take a leading role in reform. He warned that "it is categorically inadmissible that the political system be delegitimized." And warned Russians that the consequences of this were disastrous after the last time this happened in 1917. He was also critical of the U.S. government for its criticism of the elections.

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There are more women drivers in the U.S. than men. In 2011 50.5% of licensed drivers were women. This is an increase from the 39.6% figure in 1963, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Part of the reason for this is the decline in young men getting drivers licenses, and the larger share of older drivers with more women in that age group. Even though women still earn less than men the numbers are increasing, with women making 81 cents to every dollar made by men in 2012, increasing from 62 cents in 1979. In educaton levels achieved women are doing better- Labor Dept figures show 30% of women born in the early 1980's with bachelors degrees, and only 22% for men. That suggests their earning prospects will continue to increase. Studies by R.L. Polk show women prefer more fuel efficient cars. A study by RDA Group shows women buying the average new car in 2012 at a price 12% less than the average car bought by men. Only two of the top ten cars purchased by women in 2012 were U.S. brands- the Ford Escape at No.7 and the Chevy Equinox at No. 9. This shows that Ford, GM and Chrysler have more work to do to attract women customers....

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Ford Motor Company's results in the second quarter of 2013 show sales up 15% to $38.1 billion. Profits were up to $1.23 billion from the $1.04 billion for the same quarter in 2012. Most of the profit comes from N. American market with $2.33 billion pretax profit in the second quarter of 2013, increasing from $2.01 billion in the same quarter 2012. Earnings in Asia were $177 million, after a $66 million loss in 2012 for the same period. Losses in Europe were down to $348 million from $404 million in the second quarter of 2012. Vehicles with a common platform strategy such as the Kuga in European market and the Escape in the U.S. market are part of Ford's strategy for maximum coverage worldwide are helping increase sales. Building of 7 new plants in China under a $5 billion investment plan and a 8th plant under construction have helped increase sales in China. As a result car sales in China increased 47% in the first half of 2013 to 407,721 vehicles, in a late effort to catchup with VW, GM and Toyota. Overall sales growth in the automobile industry in the U.S. provides about 20% of growth in U.S. GDP, according to Ford economists....

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Mark Carney, chief of the central bank of Canada, was chosen to be the next Governor of the Bank of England, succeeding Mervyn King. Carney's private sector experience with Goldman Sachs has given him contacts with people in the city of London and in British industry. He also studied at Oxford for a doctorate in economics. He helped Canada strengthen the economic reforms made in the previous 15-20 years, in his position as head of the Bank of Canada, say experts. This helped Canada withstand the 2008 financial crisis better than other countries. He says he can "play a constructive role in relaunching this institution with its new responsibilities."

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A look at Israel at 70 by the Economist magazine shows a country that has combined early achievements of socialist governments such as free health care system and good education system with the addition of 1 million immigrants from the collapsing Soviet Union, to build a highly trained technically skilled workforce and international companies.  It says the Israeli Arabs are still poor and unable to integrate. With ultra Orthodox Jews they make up 30% of the population, and many of them who do not work. Infrastructure has suffered from lack of investment and public transport is in poor condition. About 4.5 million Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza remain a continuous source of tension with no settlement in sight. The shift of the capital to Jerusalem is recognized by the U.S. Trump administration, a win for Israel, but leaving the divisive politics of Mr. Netanyahu in place. So that with the growing economy, there are social problems and political division which need to be addressed as much as the economy. A problem left for another administration, another leader from possibly a revived Labor party and another day. ...

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Auto parts makers employ 600,000 workers concentrated in 7 states and also supply foreign carmakers in the USA. They are asking for access to TARP or other government money as they are feeling the effects of this downturn. Carmakers are using the stuy by the Center for Automotive Research that says 3 million jobs will be affected. However bankruptcy law allows the carmakers to continue to operate, and gives the automakers an opportunity to renegotiate all labor contracts on the basis of the new realities in the American economy, as demand collapses and credit is tight and companies need rescue money from the government. Douglas Baird, a Professor at the University of Chicago Law School who specializes in bankruptcy law says that this 3 million figure is laughable as modern bankruptcy law is designed to protect against that, in effect suggesting that companies like the airlines that are operating in bankruptcy can continue to operate as before but do so with serious restructuring.

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A new West Coast Model is emerging with ballot measures in the states of Washington, California and Oregon. The model is to make up for decades of faulty income distribution which favored tech communities in west coast states leaving behind people from minority communities and the working class outside tech hubs such as San Francisco, San Jose and Seattle. During this period budgets for education and healthcare, social services and essential infrastructure suffered as budgets were squeezed for local governments. Minimum wage also lagged behind and communities struggled to keep up. Washington votes for a ballot measure that raises the minimum wage to $13.25 statewide and mandate paid sick leave for workers. In California a ballot measure makes permanent an income tax surcharge on millionaires to use these funds for education. In Oregon measure 97 places a gross receipts tax on corporations with annual sales in Oregon over $25 million, raising $3 billion a year for schools, health care and other programs. The California and Washington measures are likely to pass, Oregon uncertain, say experts. And even in Oregon supporters have learned from the experience to put forward new proposals on the ballot. The Washington measure is supported by Nick Hanauer, and Zach Silk, president of Civic Ventures in Seattle, who say it is essential to put more money in workers wages to increase growth and to bring better lives outside the tech hub areas. Most of the tech booms of the last two decades have not touched the areas outside tech hub metropolitan areas. The conservative approach adopted in Louisiana and Kansas of reducing taxes first and then when holes in state budgets developed to cut education, health and other service expenditures has not worked, and it has led to the backlash in the form of the new West Coast Model, which is expected to be brought up in other states in the east and midwest. The tech hub areas have grown with the boom in tech but this has largely ignored the rural areas, communities just outside of the tech cities, and led to uneven and distorted growth shortchanging the working class and the middle class, and hurting investment in education and healthcare across each state. Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution conservative think tank ,says that its hard to deny that the balanced growth for all communities across the state has lagged far behind as the tech booms boosted growth in the economies of California, Oregon and Washington. An article in the German online site Zeit on Silicon Valley described this vividly showing how this can happen in communities sitting side by side in the San Jose area, with minority Hispanic communities and working class communties seeing very little of the benefits of growth. ...

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Brenner of McGill University and Fridson of S&P say the Bernanke Federal Reserve in the U.S. is doing what President Truman and Treasury Secretary Snyder did in the war and postwar years- paying down the U.S. debt as cheaply as possible by inflating the money supply. There are no new monetary insights here, and even though the policy is maintained outwardly as one to promote economic growth and employment, the main focus is to keep the cost of paying down the debt as cheaply as possible with low rates. This hurts savers and retirees earning very little on savings. They cite Bernanke's writings that show he is imitating the policy of the war years when the U.S. held down interest rates and succeeded in doing this for a decade.

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The WSJ Dollar Index , which shows the strength of the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, jumped up by 22% from July 1, 2014 to March 17, 2015, according to FactSet. Since that time the dollar has risen slowly by 2.7%. Scott Mather, chief investment officer, U.S. core strategies, PIMCO, says the dollar normally rises faster in the period when there is an expectation of rising rates than when the actual increase of rates takes place. Analysts say if the Fed raises rates in 2016 this could strengthen the dollar further, complicating the Fed's rate increase plans with slower increase in inflation. U.S. S&P 500 companies have reported lower earnings by 10-12% in the third quarter of 2015- when actual earnings dropped by only 1.5%- because of the stronger dollar, according to Binky Chadha, chief global strategist at Deutsche Bank. He says core goods inflation would have risen by half a percentage point more without the stronger dollar, meeting the 2% Fed target, had the dollar not strengthened....

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Li Keqiang, China's new premier, entered Peking University in 1978 by excelling in merit exams. Li and a fellow student, Yang Baikui, translated the English book "The Due Process of Law" by British jurist Lord Denning. Professor Gong Xiangrui, brought the book to China and educated his students in the ideas of constitutional law and western liberalism. Yang says Li learned English on his own and meticulously carried a stack of notecards with English on one side and Chinese translation on the other. Li would study the cards while waiting for a bus or in the line at the school cafeteria. Li has political discusions with students from that time, some of whom joined the pro-democracy demonstrations of 1989. He is the son of a mid level county official from Anhui province and moved in the party ranks through diligent effort. Li's doctoral thesis is in economcs and he is expected to focus on economic changes, with Xi Jinping, the new president, taking the lead in making changes to the political system. Fellow students from Li's days at Peking University say the difference between them and Li is the pace of democratization, with Li looking at it as a longer process. Recent articles by Li Keqiang on economic change show his emphasis on urbanization as a way to improve agricultural conditions with a smaller number of farmers improving producitvity in agriculture, and the importance of creating a better social safety net for people in China....

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Matt Bai's interview with Mario Cuomo, former governor of New York. The conversation covers different topics: Mario Cuomo's speeches, the affinity and the dissonance with his son Andrew Cuomo's idea of liberalism and his own, about the kind of triangulation practiced by Clinton and Obama, and his sense of being a liberal in the old fashioned way. The talk goes to a speech Mario made about helping the poor without crushing the middle class and the sense today that the task ahead is about helping the middle class without crushing the poor. Mario mentions a conversation with Bill Clinton about an offer to join the Supreme Court. Mario said he told Clinton he would not be able to debate and talk freely about his views if he accepted that position. Considering Mario Cuomo's speeches this is sincere. He is torn between the struggles experienced by his father and others of the most ordinary working men and women of the period between the wars, the idea that there had to be a better way, and the difficulties of making that better way work in the real world in the postwar period. There is a sense that one has been forgotten or is now out of place- the dissonance with the times- when a serious contribution was made at one time and place that will always be there. One generation taking over from the last, adapting in its own way, the values timeless....

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Naoto Kan becomes Japan's new Prime Minister after the resignation of Hatoyama and his entire cabinet. Kan was a civil rights activist and was actively involved at the grass roots level. He is also known to have tried to control the bureaucrats and civil servants who have tended to be secretive and distanced from public opinion. As Health Minister in the mid 1990's, he exposed his own ministry for using blood tainted with HIV. He was deputy prime minister in the Hatoyama administration which lasted only 8 months.

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Michael Woodford, is a Briton who rises through the ranks to become CEO of Japanese company Olympus, only to be fired after exposing shady dealings to hide losses by the Board. His new book describes the events at Olympus- "Exposure- Inside the Olymus Scandal: How I Went From CEO to Whistle-Blower." When he confronts Board chairman Kikukawa about the dealings and coverage in the press he is brushed off. He is fired at a Board meeting and escorted out of the company the same day. Woodford then approaches the Japanese and international press.

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100 billon euros. That is 100,000 millions and rising, thats the total banking debt of Ireland, says John Banville. And this for a small country of 4.6 million people. Debt for our children, and our children's children, and our children's children's children, he says. And the enemy cannot even be identified. He says one Irish building firm, owned by a decent man and well-meaning man is said to have debts of 1.5 billion euros. One thing the Irish have learned, he says, is the value of public and private honesty.

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An example of the insensitivity of tech manufacturers to needs of schools. Chromebooks that were once presented as a low cost option for PC's in schools at about $300 are no longer what they used to be. The expiration dates for hardware that may be working makes them useless in school districts that purchase them only a couple of years before the expiration. They are increasingly being founded in scrap or E-Waste, says this report in WSJ. Macbooks or PC's are a better option because after a few years they can still be worth hundreds of dollars and they can be used and are supported for many years. The cost of sending chromebooks to scrap heaps because of expiration dates could be costing school districts $1.8 billion.

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President Trump urged members of Congress to bring up gun control legislation to expand background checks to weapons purchased at gun shows and on the internet, keep guns from mentally ill people, restrict gun sales for some young adults, and secure schools. He called for debate on a assault weapons ban.

About taking guns from mentally ill people Trump said "I like taking the guns early, take the guns first, go through due process second." Most Republicans support the NRA position that opposes gun control, and it is not clear that the president's comments were erratic comments without follow through or that the recent school shooting had changed minds.

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The constructive influence of John McDonnell in the Labor Party. McDonnell played a part in running the Greater London Council and understands what it takes to run an administration. He sees the dissension in the Labor Party as a distraction from the very real task of offering an alternative to the fracturing in the Conservative Party over soft or hard Brexit. 

Labor Party still has about 40% support edging out the Conservatives and can be seen as ready to form the next government, says the Economist magazine.  What is important is Corbyn's continued ability to compromise to bring together different elements in the party and focus on big initiatives.

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President trump accepted the package of spending bills passed in Congress which provide a fourth of the border wall funding he is looking for. The package includes $1.38 billion in funding for 55 mile border fence on the border with Mexico. Mr. Trump sought $5.7 billion for a longer fence to fulfill a key 2016 campaign pledge. Mr. Trump plans to get additional funding by declaring a national emergency that could potentially enable shifting to either military construction or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers funding.

Senator Lindsay Graham supports an emergency declaration. The National Emergencies Act limits presidential power by allowing Congress to terminate an emergency declaration and automatically terminates it in 180 days.

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Interview of Mary Barra, new CEO of U.S. auto company GM by editors and reporters of the NYT.

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The Hulme Company mail order catalog business in Minnesota may not be representative of small business, considering the errors and the scale of the debt taken on. But even if a small fraction of this debt taking tendency is representative of small business, it means that small business will not generate jobs as it did in the past. Small business will actually layoff people. And small business will not be able to provide the bounce the economy will need in years to come. The following is an an anaysis of this venture. The owners of this small business Bidwell and Ms. Guarino bought a luxury goods maker that was losing money for $600,000. Their business was to sell $500 garment bags and $1200 duffel bags. The experience of Bidwell was with Target, Tonka Toys and a cigarette distributor. Ms Guarino had a $130,000 job with a magazine publisher, running regional magazines like Minnesota Parent, which she quit. She had some experience as a handbag designer in California before that. They had never seen hard times, no, they had only seen good times. And were willing to spend heavily on the business like the $600,000 for a business, Hulme Company, that lost $150,000 on sales of $450,000 making duck hunting gear, the business they bought in 2003. All this for a tiny factory employing 3 seamstresses, and with no brand name for luxury goods like leather duffels. Their lender's experience- Kassim who founded Maple Bank in Champlin, Minnesota, considered it pretty typical of small business in those days to do everything on debt and loaned $550,000 over 5 years. So the lender was in for the ride. Another bank Stephens bank loaned on SBA approved loans which were later cut off. Guarino had no experience in this business, and simply relied on Bidwell's experience. The borrowing went on and on from friends, taking in debt with total lack of understanding of what debt means, from their daughter, the entire $50,000 savings of Bidwell's wife, and finally with banks refusing to lend after having friends put up their CD's and collateral on loans. Debt to equity ratio gets to 5 to 1. Second mortgages on the house getting Bidwell and extra $130,000. Even in the best year 2006 sales at $1.4 million, and earnings before taxes and other items at $325,000, not enough to pay the interest and other payments on loans that later totaled $2 million by year end 2007. $500,000 from friends and family including $20,000 from his daughter or two thirds of their savings. 600,000 catalogs went out in 2007. With the Hulme Company behind on payments in 2008, the catalogs mailed in 2008 dropped to 175,000. It is a very capital intensive business from the standpoint of catalog cost. $1 million in inventory at year end 2007, or two thirds of sales of $1.5 million in 2007, was a sign of how expansion preceded even getting the financing in place, and going out into the dark thinking sales wil materialize. So even in the best year 2006 the business was not viable, and would have collapsed even without the financial and credit conditions of 2008, ruining the owners in the process. By 2008 it led to the usual things in this kind of business failure, Bidwell's divorce, loss of his home as he falls behind on mortgage payments, Guarino's loss of job and friends whom she borrowed from, and both deeply in debt. Evaluation of the failure is as follows. Seamstresses and the small factory space could be obtained for a fraction of the cost in an emerging market country, even in an eastern European country, and no cost needed to be incurred for the purchase of Hulme Company or for sending out catalogs. Only travel expenses to meet high end retailers who might carry this merchandise, and go to the country where the plant was setup. Sales would come first, and expansion to meet sales very carefully done so that the plant could be downscaled if sales dropped. Even then scores of small luxury goods makers in China or other emerging market countries could put the owners out of business. The lesson if you can't watch costs, if you don't understand what debt means, then you don't pass the most basic of tests. You cannot run business on savings, home equity or credit card loans, or business loans with personal guarantees. Costs tend to just run up to the money one has artificially created. It will ruin you. If you don't have experience with the business and the product area, or can't put together a group of people with the experience to guide you on the pitfalls and what to watch for, you don't pass the next basic test. Only then does one get to the other tests about whether there is a market, the price and value of the offering and so on. This is before the current economic crisis. Now all these tests become more important than ever, or it will kill you and quickly. One has to be paranoid and very careful after 2008. Stephens Bank loaned money on SBA loans ...

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Sanger and Gordon point to critical elements of the nuclear deal that were needed but will now be missing. Iranian negotiators now say they will not ship atomic fuel out of the country. For the agreement to be serious and credible about Iran's peaceful intentions for the use of nuclear energy, it was important that the atomic fuel be shipped to Russia, where it would be converted into specialized fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear power plant. If Iran at some point decided to opt out of the agreement the use of this atomic fuel for peaceful purposes cannot be assured.