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Just as the drug industry is more getting more dependent on the government with the medicare drug benefit raising the retail drug purchases paid by government to 34% in 2006 from 28% in 2005, the industry is facing more governmental scrutiny, from the FDA, from Congress from the public, and during this election campaign. Rep .Rosa DeLauro, who heads the House appropriations subcommittee that has oversight over FDA funding compares the drug industry to the tobacco industry saying that it requires the same amount of scrutiny. At the same time the drug industry is aware of the changes in the public mood and the recent controversies over drug studies, such as the one on Vytorin and other controversy. It is initiating some voluntary changes, registering clinical trial results, submitting commercials to the FDA before they air, and under pressure from medical journals registering trials before they are performed. A new law will requires and its not clear whether the drug industry is dragging its feet and then making changes when there is increasing public pressure. This is the feeling of the medical journals like the Journal of the Medical Association and the New England Journal of Medicine. JAMA's editors will be keeping up this pressure as they have more articles showing how the drug industry manipulates data and the need for public skepticism of information that comes out of the drug industry. The New England Journal editors expressed the need to publish information that helps doctors get all the available information, and not just the information from the drug industry that makes the drug look better than it really is, such as the information and analysis it provided on antidepressant medications. The chairman of the energy and commerce investigations subcommittee Rep. Stupak, finds the advertising for drugs contains information that cannot be backed up and not true ethically, medically, or legally. As this reflects the public mood look for more investigations in Congress and investigative research by the journals. On the issue of importation of drugs from Canada there is bipartisan support as both Senator McCain and Senator Clinton support importation. Clinton supports legislation that allows the FDA to approve new generic versions of biotech drugs which would lower prices of biotech drugs. And with the US consumer budget facing strains in a recession there will be increasing pressure and demands for relief in the area of drug prices, especially for the elderly and uninsured and from corporate payors. ...

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Dana Milbank of the WP says the views of some Democrats on Trump as a good Republican nominee based on the notion that he has high negative perception with voters is fraught with dangers for U.S. democracy. Milbank points out that this ignores what is good for the country. Having Trump as the nominee of one of the two main parties would create a divisive atmosphere and is not good for the country, says Milbank. In comparing Trump with Cruz, he says Trump is likely to follow his instincts to operate outside the U.S. constitutional system. Cruz as a person believes in the U.S. constitution and would never endorse violence or action against minorities. Cruz has not done enough to come across as a likable person with his persistent focus on conservative or Reagan values to the exclusion of everything else. This is changing in mid-April 2016 following a CNN interview with the Cruz family, a MSNBC town hall answering questions from undecided voters, and NYT coverage of Cruz at a Brooklyn bakery, that shows a different human face that people have never seen about Cruz. Cruz's self-deprecating humor in a NYT article where he talks about voters not liking "a hectoring scold," is part of this needed change that could have happened earlier in the campaign. About Trump Milbank cites Conservative party prime minister Cameron who says Trump would unite all Britons against him if he ever came to Britain....

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Islamist parties are having difficulty integrating into political life and bridging the differences with secularist or liberal political parties in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Pakistan and Turkey following the democratic transition in 2011-2013 in the Muslim world. Some progress has been made, but lack of experience, lack of respect for the opposition and other opinion, overreaching, personal styles of individual leaders such as Erdogan and Morsi, and poor economic conditions after decades of neglect under military rulers in Egypt and other countries, is creating problems for Islamist parties in government.

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Timur Kuran, a Professor at Duke, sees the lack of civil society, and shariah law that does not encourage the growth of institutions of civil society that are organized as corporations, as two major handicaps in the development of democratic society and institutions in the Middle East.

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Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post says the Republican candidates Rubio and Kasich have the best chance in the 2016 presidential election because they are seen as truly concerned about the problems of working class Americans. Coming from aspiring working class families they are familiar with the problems of working class whites and minorities, and understand the significance of upward mobility in America's future.

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Alan Meltzer would like to see the Fed reverse its quantitative easing, and lower excess reserves gradually starting now. By this he hopes to see the Fed avoid the mistake of making a big shift from excessive ease to severe contraction further down the road. He also warns agains excessive deficit spending. He says a weak economy is not the time to cut spending or raise taxes, and he is not talking of draconian immediate steps. He would like to see a multiyear program to increase fiscal probity and reduce deficits size and frequency. As it stands now he takes both parties to task for lack of fiscal discipline and honest accounting. About $1 trillion in deficits each year on average for next 10 years is in the works, and is an underestimate because the savings of $200-$300 billion in medicare spending have still to be realized, and states do not have funds for increased Medicaid spending, and payments to doctors have still to go down by 25%. Chinese government purchases of half our debt will postpone the day of reckoning says Meltzer, but far better for us to strike at the problem now, before we blow a hole in the dollar and start a downturn. See the separate report on the shrinking UK economy....

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Ford is facing a sales disaster in the China market after lagging in coming up with new models and falling behind in adopting new technology in the hyper competitive Chinese market. Sales dropped from 1.27 million vehicles in 2016 to 752,000 vehicles in 2018. In 2018 sales dropped by 37%, when the Chinese market declined by 3%. In 2019 the car market in China shrank by another 12% in the first half.  The problems stem from poor management. Alan Mulally started the China project, his successor from a Michigan furniture company CEO Jim Hackett was unable to grasp the challenges in China with new technology a key feature of keeping abreast of the Chinese market. A succession of new executives in China from U.S. or EUropean operations compounded the problem each group lacking the touch needed with local Chinese conditions. Some experts say Ford is now becoming irrelevant in the Chinese market after being a late starter in coming to China and then investing billions in a catch up effort. GM and VW started much earlier. Ford reported loss of $1.5 billion in 2018. From 5% in 2015 its market share dropped to 2.1% in first quarter 2019. Ford was complacent and applied a global strategy in China when local Chinese car companies were moving with lightning speed. Ford was asked to locate in the far interior of the country as a late comer to China and its partner Chang'an Auto was more concerned about keeping car jobs than introducing the latest technology and models. China is obsessed with new technology and there is no way Ford could be allowed to get away with outdated models. ...

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The IMF's changing views on the value of fiscal austerity. In the current debate about the value of fiscal austerity, there is the IMF view, a German view based on its own experience, and the views of other countries in Europe. The IMF's view has shifted over time. The IMF World Economic Outlook 2010, describes its view of the effects of austerity measures in the form of spending cuts and tax increases- "Fiscal consolidation typically has a contractionary effect on output. A fiscal consolidation equal to 1% of GDP typically reduces GDP by about 0.5% within 2 years and raises the unemployment rate by about 0.3% percentage points." Over the longer term there are benefits as the private sector is not crowded out in the search for captal funding by the excessive government borrowing. The IMF's economic models suggest that it would take 5 years before reaching the breakeven point when the benefits of austerity measures exceed the effects of austerity. The German view held by German central bankers is that the actions stimulate growth in the short term. Manfred Neumann, professor emeritus at the Institute for Economic Policy at the University of Bonn, says this is called the "German hypothesis" as it reflects the experience of Germany from austerity actions taken by Germany. Laurence Ball, professor of Economics at John Hopkins University, is critical of the "German hypothesis" and its application across Europe in different situations. Germany is a large exporting nation and exports helped counterbalance the effects of austerity measures. Within the eurozone with fixed exchange rates the exports of less competitive countries cannot be boosted through devaluing the currency to gain price competitiveness. The other problem is that with interest rates close to zero in the euro zone the central banks cannot cut rates aggressively to counteract the effects of spending cuts. The problem gets compounded when a number of countries are taking austerity measures at the same time accentuating the downturn....

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Confessore describes ways in which the Republican Party agenda moved away from the interests of ordinary American working class voters in the last decade, ignoring some of the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and the deep recession in the years that followed.

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Barry Ritholtz lists the causes of the financial crisis, He says New York Mayor Bloomberg's exoneration of the financial industry is simply false- what he calls "the Big Lie"- even though Congress, regulators and the Greenspan Fed acted irresponsibly and created favorable conditions for the actions of the financial industry.

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Jim Yardley points out the controversial nature of the referendum in Greece on July 5, 2015. It is flawed in 3 respects- it makes no mention of Europe, the details of the agreement are not clear to voters, and the "No" vote is framed in terms of the "Oxi" or "No" vote of 1940 in Greece to Mussolini for annexation of Greece. No sane minded person can confirm that this has anything to do with the annexation of Greece by foreign powers. It had one additional flaw- the government and Tsipras simply went ahead and campaigned for a "No" without talking to its European partners. Landon Thomas Jr shows how the difficult dynamic and confrontation between the eurozone negotiator Dijsselbloem and the Greece negotiator led to the collapse of talks on June 25, 2015, playing right into the paranoia of an inexperienced Greece administration about the EU's intentions. Only over a week later July 7, 2015 the new Britain trained Greece negotiator Tsakalotos from St Pauls School and Oxford was able to change the very tone of negotiations leading to the Third Bailout Program. ...

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A Syrian opposition group describes the mislabeling of opposition groups in Syria by the Obama administration.

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How companies like United Health are lobbying aggressively to shape the new helathcare legislation to their benefit. BW says the health insurers like United Health, Aetna and Wellpoint are already winning through clever and effective lobbying of Congress. Former Senator Tom Daschle works as aconsultant for United Health. Senator Conrad who has led aeffort to replace the public plan with nonprofit medical cooperatives, which would be a weaker competitive threat to insurers, is also influened by the insurers. United Health's CEO Helmsley and its person working with Congress on healthcare Simon Stevens met with Conrad on June 4. When lawmakers in Congress cite consulting group Lewin Group, that 88 million or 56% of those with employer provided coverage would desert private insurance for a government run program, they are quoting acompany owned by United Health. The Congressional Budget Ofice says these numbers are too high. United Health has used savy presentations on how to cut costs, and help Blue Dog and other Democrats articulate their positions, to gain influence in shaping the plan to their interests. United Health thus counts a lot with Matheson, and Mike Ross of Arkansas, who are prominent with the 52 Blue Dog Democrats. and with Senator Mark Warner of Virginia. And United Health put together an effective lobbbying group, even hiring the chief of staff of House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer. ...

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The Indian public from retired businessmen, farmers, students, and the press are coming out in support of anti-corruption leader Anna Hazare's call for effective legislation to control corruption of public officials in India. This comes after a number of corruption scandals and lack of action from the Congress government. The government's bill in parliament - introduced after pressure from public opinion- sets up an ombudsman or Lokpal agency, which would exclude from its jurisdiction the very public officials over whom it was meant to exercize oversight. Under the government's bill the prime minister, the public officials in the bureaucracy and the judiciary would be excluded. This has set up a confrontation with an increasingly exasperated public, with Hazare's protest fast in central New Delhi as the catalyst for protest across the country. The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament that he sees it as an issue of parliamentary sovereignty, as Hazare's protest is for a version of the bill that he has drafted to be adopted. But the public's sense is that Hazare is only responding with his own draft of the bill because of the government's effort to make only a token effort by not giving the anti-corruption body the powers it needs to function effectively. The response has brought thousands of demonstrators from around the country to Tihar jail where Hazare is being held by the government after his arrest. The situation is reminiscent of the protests against the British imperial government by Mohandas Gandhi, and in this sense has serious implicatons for how the country is governed. Corruption was prevalent in India during the days of the license Raj in the period 1950-1990 when business needed government permits in the closed economy of the Nehru period, and corruption existed in the bureaucracy in its delivery of public services. Since 1990 as the economy opened up and the growth rate increased corruption at all levels of government has in some ways increased and become embedded in the bureaucracy and government. This hurts the poor and the middle class the most, as corruption acts as a tax on the delivery of public services and infrastructure development, both badly needed in an emerging market country....