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This WSJ report traces the development of rail, trucking, container shipping and forklift use in Germany, Russia and the US. The World Bank Logistics Index shows Germany ranking first, the US 14th, China 26th, Russia 75th out of 160 countries.  Russia's military relies on a supply system that uses crates instead of container shipping, not much use of forklifts, and relies on rail and conscript labor. During the invasion of Ukraine in April Russian supply lines that did not control rail failed to supply forces leading to slow progress. Because of dense rail lines in the eastern Donbas region Russian supply lines have worked to sustain advances. About 750 miles of rail lines have also been repaired by a special force set up for this purpose.  In a larger sense the problem of logistics and supplying front lines remains. This report shows the contrast between the development of Russian logistics and American logistics described by military experts in the US. The Russian system evolved in the early years of the 20th century based on conscript or free and abundant labor compared to the US where labor was scarce and costly. Automation progressed rapidly with American business taking up use of forklifts and containers during the 1940's extending to its use in the military. During the Vietnam war Cam Ranh Bay US bases were converted to modern container and forklift use. Russia continued through the sixties till today with a different and less automated system of logistics and movement of goods.    The use of modern logistics in Russia is limited to the amount of freight that gets moved in Colombia and much less than France says this report in WSJ. Much of the industrial base in Russia is built around oil and gas exports and manufacturing with movement of supply chain parts has never taken the importance that it has in Germany or the US. This limits the capacity of the Russian military outside the rail lines located towns and cities in Donbas where it has recently made gains. ...

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The WSJ's Laurence Norman talks to Yukiya Amano, head of the UN agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has the responsibility of verification and inspection of Iran's nuclear development and facilities. Amano describes the issues raised by a 2011 report which outlined 12 sets of concerns to which Iran has to explain, a condition included in the final nuclear agreement. Iran has to respond by mid-August, IAEA then responds, and does work in Sept and Oct, and submits its report by Dec. 2015. Yamano says he has to fill in all the missing pieces in this jigsaw puzzle to get a full picture of Iran's nuclear development. Iran has denied access to military sites and Mr. Amano couldn't say if he has access to the Parchin military site. A concession that was made in the agreement is the long interval of three weeks before access to a particular site that arouses suspicions-the agreement gives Iran the right to appeal an IAEA request to visit such a site to a special commission. The U.S. and its European allies have a majority on the commission yet three weeks are allowed in which Iran could move material to some other location. For critics the question will be why such a concession was needed if Iran truly has decided not to develop nuclear weapons technologies. The U.S. president's response at a news conference on July 15, 2015, was that with the laws of physics the U.S. monitoring tools would detect nuclear activity at that site. The agreement also gives Iran an earlier than planned lifting of a ban on sales of arms and missiles and missile parts if the IAEA says Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful. Iran could conceivably wait till the ban is lifted and its economy in a much stronger position to withstand any future limited sanctions to pursue nuclear weapons development. This would have delayed development for a few years during which time the hope is that Iran has changed into a more peaceful nation pursuing economic development in its region, yet even if this is the case as as happened with India and Pakistan it could still pursue nuclear weapons development. The alternative is a status quo till a better agreement is reached with the leverage of tight economic sanctions and continuing dialogue during which time Iran continues to get closer to a nuclear weapon, or the use of force to prevent this. Iran added the arms embargo issue during the last weeks of the negotiation in June, a controversial move on Iran's part, as this may have complicated the picture with ballistic missiles technology exports to Iran approved after 8 years in the final agreement, compared to the agreement reached in April 2015 which made no mention of the lifting of the arms embargo. Iran played on the notion that if Zarif returned to Iran without an agreement hardliners including Khamanei would veto any agreement, yet this could just be the Iranian negotiating strategy. U.S. president Obama stated at the July 15, 2015 news conference that it would be hard to hold sanctions for longer. Critics might argue that China was already benefitting from the small easing of sanctions by increasing Iranian oil imports by 30% in 2014, and would have less incentive to withdraw from sanctions, as it is dependent on the U.S. and the EU, major markets for its exports and access to technologies. A WSJ/NBC poll in July shows almost half of the people polled in the U.S. saying they do not know enough to express an opinion, a steady 36% support an agreement, showing that the public has not been educated and taken along during the different steps in the largely secret negotiations....

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The 28 Point Peace Plan offers a basis for further work to arrive at an agreement acceptable to Ukraine and to the European Union, is the view emerging at the G20 talks in Johannesburg, South Africa. The leaders of Finland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Italy and Spain met on Saturday, November 22 2025. Separately Leyen and the EU council president Costa meet with Meloni of Italy and Macron of France on Saturday after conversations with Zelensky on Friday.  British prime minister Starmer has this view of the 28 Point US plan negotiated with Russia-  “There is only one country around the G20 table that is not calling for a cease-fire, and one country that is deploying a barrage of drones and missiles to destroy livelihoods and murder innocent civilians.” Ms. Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, says-  “Ukraine can count on us because this is not only an aggression against Ukraine, but it is an aggression against the principles of the U.N. charter." “It’s on European soil. Therefore, we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.” Macron of France commended American efforts to reach a peace deal but said EU nations would work with Ukraine to map out a plan for way forward in 48 hours.  "What is at stake is Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.” It is this aspect of European security that may be the reason the EU and Germany may decide to modify the plan to offer a counter proposal on several points. One on limits to the size of Ukraine's defense forces to ensure its defense. Another on the stationing of forces by NATO in a peacekeeping role in Ukraine as proposed earlier. Third on the ceding of territory now in the hands of Ukraine so that these parts of Ukraine can remain independent after 4 years of ragged defense. Germany under CDU Merz and with Pistorius of SPD at Defense in a strong coalition government may be the deciding factor as Merz has already set the goal for the Bundeswehr to become the strongest army in Europe, with plans and action to prepare for this transition to defend European interests. It is true that Ukraine is at a difficult point yet if the Europeans see this as a "capitulation" and a US DJT deadline of one week to push this through Europeans may come up with a counter offer that includes these points that would make it clear that they are not an obstacle for peaceful resolution of this conflict. The history of Europe shows that in such situations with most of Europe on one side and Russia or some other major European power on the other side, eventual settlement ends up with all sides making some concessions, and in no way seen as "capitulation." Asian powers China and India have been pulled out of the conflict to a large degree in 2024-2025, with US shifting to a neutral position. Making this a purely European conflict with the Russian economy mobilized for wartime yet facing all the nations of Europe led by Germany, France and the UK in a transition towards military preparedness and unwilling to see any form of capitulation. In such a situation the larger economies and resources of the EU could effectively counter a Russian threat leading to a settlement that is better for all parties to the conflict.   ...

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Marco Rubio speaks for the US with profound convictions and long experience in the Florida legislature and the US Senate, and as akey member of the DJT administration. In his speech in Munich at the MSC he recalls his grandparents being from Piedmeont Sardinia in Italy and from Sevilla in Spain. He talks proudly of his Spanish and Italian heritage, of America founded by European settlers. For Europe this is a speech that shows America is profoundly part of Western Civilization that started in Europe. Here are some parts of the speech and Rubio's call for America and Europe to respond strongly to the mistakes in migration and deindustrialization that have hurt the people of Europe and America, with deeply felt negative consequences. "That infamous wall that had cleaved this nation into two came down, and with it an evil empire, and the East and West became one again.  But the euphoria of this triumph led us to a dangerous delusion:  that we had entered, quote, “the end of history;” that every nation would now be a liberal democracy; that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood; that the rules-based global order – an overused term – would now replace the national interest; and that we would now live in a world without borders where everyone became a citizen of the world.  This was a foolish idea that ignored both human nature and it ignored the lessons of over 5,000 years of recorded human history.  And it has cost us dearly.  In this delusion, we embraced a dogmatic vision of free and unfettered trade, even as some nations protected their economies and subsidized their companies to systematically undercut ours – shuttering our plants, resulting in large parts of our societies being deindustrialized, shipping millions of working and middle-class jobs overseas, and handing control of our critical supply chains to both adversaries and rivals.  We increasingly outsourced our sovereignty to international institutions while many nations invested in massive welfare states at the cost of maintaining the ability to defend themselves.  This, even as other countries have invested in the most rapid military buildup in all of human history and have not hesitated to use hard power to pursue their own interests.  To appease a climate cult, we have imposed energy policies on ourselves that are impoverishing our people, even as our competitors exploit oil and coal and natural gas and anything else – not just to power their economies, but to use as leverage against our own.  And in a pursuit of a world without borders, we opened our doors to an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people.  We made these mistakes together, and now, together, we owe it to our people to face those facts and to move forward, to rebuild.  Under President Trump, the United States of America will once again take on the task of renewal and restoration, driven by a vision of a future as proud, as sovereign, and as vital as our civilization’s past.  And while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe.  For the United States and Europe, we belong together.  America was founded 250 years ago, but the roots began here on this continent long before.  The man who settled and built the nation of my birth arrived on our shores carrying the memories and the traditions and the Christian faith of their ancestors as a sacred inheritance, an unbreakable link between the old world and the new.  We are part of one civilization – Western civilization.  We are bound to one another by the deepest bonds that nations could share, forged by centuries of shared history, Christian faith, culture, heritage, language, ancestry, and the sacrifices our forefathers made together for the common civilization to which we have fallen heir. And so this is why we Americans may sometimes come off as a little direct and urgent in our counsel.  This is why President Trump demands seriousness and reciprocity from our friends here in Europe.  The reason why, my friends, is because we care deeply.  We care deeply about your future and ours.  And if at times we disagree, our disagreements come from our profound sense of concern about a Europe with which we are connected – not just economically, not just militarily.  We are connected spiritually and we are connected culturally.  We want Europe to be strong.  We believe that Europe must survive, because the two great wars of the last century serve for us as history’s constant reminder that ultimately, our destiny is and will always be intertwined with yours, because we know – (applause) – because we know that the fate of Europe will never be irrelevant to our own.  National security, which this conference is largely about, is not merely series of technical questions – how much we spend on defense or where, how we deploy it, these are important questions.  They are.  But they are not the fundamental one.  The fundamental question we must answer at the outset is what exactly are we defending, because armies do not fight for abstractions.  Armies fight for a people; armies fight for a nation.  Armies fight for a way of life.  And that is what we are defending: a great civilization that has every reason to be proud of its history, confident of its future, and aims to always be the master of its own economic and political destiny. It was here in Europe where the ideas that planted the seeds of liberty that changed the world were born.  It was here in Europe where the world – which gave the world the rule of law, the universities, and the scientific revolution.  It was this continent that produced the genius of Mozart and Beethoven, of Dante and Shakespeare, of Michelangelo and Da Vinci, of the Beatles and the Rolling Stones.  And this is the place where the vaulted ceilings of the Sistine Chapel and the towering spires of the great cathedral in Cologne, they testify not just to the greatness of our past or to a faith in God that inspired these marvels.  They foreshadow the wonders that await us in our future.  But only if we are unapologetic in our heritage and proud of this common inheritance can we together begin the work of envisioning and shaping our economic and our political future. Deindustrialization was not inevitable.  It was a conscious policy choice, a decades-long economic undertaking that stripped our nations of their wealth, of their productive capacity, and of their independence.  And the loss of our supply chain sovereignty was not a function of a prosperous and healthy system of global trade.  It was foolish.  It was a foolish but voluntary transformation of our economy that left us dependent on others for our needs and dangerously vulnerable to crisis. Mass migration is not, was not, isn’t some fringe concern of little consequence.  It was and continues to be a crisis which is transforming and destabilizing societies all across the West.  Together we can reindustrialize our economies and rebuild our capacity to defend our people.  But the work of this new alliance should not be focused just on military cooperation and reclaiming the industries of the past.  It should also be focused on, together, advancing our mutual interests and new frontiers, unshackling our ingenuity, our creativity, and the dynamic spirit to build a new Western century.  Commercial space travel and cutting-edge artificial intelligence; industrial automation and flex manufacturing; creating a Western supply chain for critical minerals not vulnerable to extortion from other powers; and a unified effort to compete for market share in the economies of the Global South.  Together we can not only take back control of our own industries and supply chains – we can prosper in the areas that will define the 21st century." ...

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Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...

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Can the new intelligence assessment that Iran gave up the effort to make nuclear weapons three years ago affect oil prices and to what extent? At least it calms the anxiety that there is an unknown out there being the development of nuclear weapons in the backyard of Iraq where US is involved and in a major oil producing region. This should take some of the pressure off oil prices and any its significant in another way, that any developments in the middle east would be taken in a different light, not as a part of a cloud of uncertainty but taken by evaluating the new development on its own merits carefully. Interestingly this happened in the same week that another development ocurred. The President of Venezuela lost a referendum in Venezuela designed to givie him emergency powers by amending the constitution. Even by controlling most of the media and using oil money to support social programs and giveaways to the poor and working classes, Chavez lost the referendum that he initiated. It was not clear what would happen in Venezuela, and the Iran development was a surprise, so this also means that in international affairs educated people will look at a lot of different possibilities from now on before drawing any conclusions. In fact this is exactly what appears to have happened in the case of the intelligence on Iran, as mentioned here the new assessment was based on allowing different agencies and groups within the government to come up with different conclusions and then to test the facts again and again, and to question old assumptions....

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Manufacturing output showed brisk growth in the first quarter of 2011, growing at four times the estimated rate for the overall U.S. economy. The PNC Financial Group estimates growth for the first quarter for the overall economy at 2%. This growth is supported by exports to developing countries in Asia and Latin America with the help of a weaker dollar. American companies are also increasing investment in computers, machinery and other equipment. This has increased growth and profits for companies such as Intel, Caterpillar, Eaton, and United Technologies. Manufacturing in the U.S. is rebounding from the sharp drop in 2008-2009. During the first quarter it increased at an annual rate of 9.1% according to the Federal Reserve. In the second half of 2011 manufacturing is expected to slow to about 4%, according to Manufacturer's Alliance/MAPI. So far manufacturing has shrugged off concerns about oil prices approaching $110 a barrel and the earthquake in Japan. This growth has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Averages to 12453, the highest close since June 2008....

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NYT reporters Perlez and Sang-Hun cite Prof. Shih of Renmin University in Beijing, about China's reluctance to take action against North Korea for missile testing by reducing oil exports and imports of mineral sources from North Korea. China sees stronger sanctions against North Korea, as urged by Japan, South Korea and the U.S., as being counterproductive by reducing Chinese influence in North Korea, alienating North Korea and further increasing its isolation. As a result China is maintaining improved relations with South Korea, as it continues to use diplomacy with the North Korean government. South Korea is responding to continued missile tests by North Korea in 2015-2016 by starting discussions for the deployment of a new Thaad missile defense system.

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China is building a port hub at Chancay that will have an initial 1.5 million TEU or twenty foot long containers capacity. It will be opened by president Xi in November. This megaport will cut the time it takes from South American coastline to Shanghai from 35 days to 25 days. Before this port China trade was conducted through Long Beach or Manzanillo in Mexico. China is now Brazil's largest trading partner and this port offers the possibility of connecting further from Brazil to Peru by land. This does pose new challenges such as crossing the Andes mountains and Brazilian jungle. The port will cost COSCO China's large shipping company $3.5 billion. China has invested in 100 foreign seaports with $30 billion over 2 decades. The port of Piraeus is operated by Chinese companies, and China has invested in a stake in the port of Hamburg, Germany which is the main gateway for Chinese exports into the EU. The US neglected Latin America and India during the three decades in which Reagan and Bush Sr, Bush Jr, engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wasting trillions of dollars, neglecting infrastructure investment in the US, and in Latin America and India. Over two decades the US has invested by comparison trillions of dollars in wars in Iraq starting with Reagan and Weinberger, Bush Sr. in the 1980's, and Bush junior in Afghanistan. Much of the oil dividend of the Middle East wasted by regimes in the region in wars. Not only the US infrastructure was starved of resources, Latin America, India and Indonesia did not receive the investment these countries needed for rapid development. Yet today Reagan and Bush are lauded for their contribution by Baker in WSJ today and by columnists in the NYT. The fall of the Berlin Wall was itself just an episode in the US relations with Russia as Russia and China are competing with the US. Germany itself of the Berlin Wall remains divided (with AfD popular in the East around Dresden), and Germany divided on pursuing policies that lead to worsening relations with Russia. Germany also maintains a strong trading relationship with China including a stake in Hamburg port given to China during the pandemic at a time when the supply chain over concentration in China was being questioned in US, EU, India. ...

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Important year end reveiw of the oil price forecasting work of so many anlaysts and where they failed . The IEA and the US Enery Dpt forecast have year after year underestimated this pirce by over 20%. Analysts change the price forecasts within a couple of weeks based on changing information and assumptions. Of all this the Saudi Arabian forecasts have ben within 12 % of what has actually ocurred according to a study by Ronald Berger Strategy Consultants of Muich, Germany. And whats their forecast for 2008. By extrapolating from the Saudi budget and the assumptions, used such as giving a wide margin to avoid a deficit in the budget if oil prices undershot by a wide margin, one gets $75 for US benchmark crude. Forecast by experts are in the neighborhood of $80 average for the whole year 2008. Goldman recently revised theirs upwards from $85 average for 2008 to $95 within a 4 week period. How good is the Goldman forecast. No one really knows. Lehman has a forecast of $84 average for 2008 and bases it on the opacity of the market because no one knows what OPEC will do with supply and China does not provide good information on demand. So basically anlysts are adding an uncertainty premium to the price of oil. And this is especially so because as the Chief Economist at IEA says global space capacity is so thin and any event can influence price. Last year the rhetoric about Irans nuclear intentions was enough to stir up the price, as were other smaller events disrupting supplies. But the Iranian situation has since cooled down and diplomatic solutions are in the works. So what to expect in 2008 in the way of political uncertainty. Iraq, Iran, Palestine, Lebanon have all seen a cool off in the ast couple of years and the Bush administration rhetoric has become outmoded as has other rhetoric from Iran so that does'nt look like it will stir up oil prices in 2008. Still there will be some uncertainty premium about supply from OPEC and demand from China and India. And demand from the Middle Eastern oil producing countries themselves as well as the increasing demand in India and China will mean that lower demand in the US because of a recession will still mean an increase in global demand over 2007 of 1.5 million barrrels a day over 2007's 85 million barrels a day. What will change the dynamics of this situation is the government mandated fuel economy for all vehicles on the road with Europe more aggressive in this area under the pressures of global warming. If this impacts India, China and Russia as these fuel saving technologies are transferrred there overall consumption should see an impact. Europe's targets are only 4 years away for 2012. And the environment may cause China to bring in newer technologies that both contribute to improving environment and conserving energy. Because China's environmental record is almost catastrophic one could see some of this happen much sooner than expected after the Olympics in 2008. All that might change the way the world looks at oil and its use, and all energy sources and their use. ...

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This opinion in the DW.com after the selection of ExxonMobil's Rex Tillerson as U.S. Secretary of State, asks whether the exploitation of natural resources and gaining advantages in trade agreements replaces concern for human rights. Still it says after all these concerns Rex Tillerson deserves a fair chance.

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The new EPA rules for auto emission standards were setup under the Obama administration in 2012. The rules are a major part of the effort to meet the challenge of pollution and clean air. The Trump administration and EPA chief Scott Pruitt plan to reverse the higher standards. The new standards which had the support of automakers when enacted require that average fuel economy be doubled to about 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. This would cut oil use by 12 billion barrels over the lifetime of the cars and reduce carbon dioxide pollution by about 6 billion tons.  The EPA under president Trump does not say how much the standards will be rolled back. This also leads to one more tension between California and the Trump administration. California plans to vigorously oppose the rollback. Under the Clean Air Act of 1970 California has historically made its own rules and was followed by 12 other states making up one third of the car market in the U.S. If the Trump administration is able to to this it would create two markets for automobiles in the U.S. which is not in the interest of automakers who are having second thoughts about the change. Amazingly a suburban Virginia Chevy dealership has vigorously opposed being used as the location for the EPA under the Trump administration making an announcement on this issue. Chevy dealerships are saying the Trump administration does not have the facts, that the auto industry has done very well in the last 4-5 years. Chevrolet and GM do not want to be associated with the politics on this issue. California has historically acted as a pioneer in automobile standards with the rest of the nation following. The Trump administration move would be an effort to break this precedent.  ...

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The period of disorder after the collapse of Communism led the rise of oligarchs in the Yeltsin period of 1990. Mr. Putin replaced Yeltsin and established himself by expelling most of the oligarchs of that period. Expelling these corrupt oligarchs gave credibility to Mr. Putin during his decades in power. Only to see the rise of new industrial magnates who promoted national brands, efficency, and concentration of capital in key areas of steel, oil and gas and other sectors. These businessmen are also called oligarchs though they are of a different kind similar to that of the Carnegies and Mellons and Rockefellers at a time of industrialization in the US in the late 19th century. Some of them support Mr. Putin and a version of Russian nationalism that prevailed under Czarist rule till the Bolshevik takeover in 1917 that ended by 1990.  The policies for supremacy in Europe pursued since 1500 to 1990 are now the policies pursued by Mr. Putin and shown by Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe 1500 to the Present."    ...

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Exxon has increased spending on exploration and production projects to $37 billion per year through 2016, up from $20 billion in 2009, in an effort to reverse declining production. Exxon's 2012 production will be down 5.7% in 2012, compared to 2.9% decline for Chevron, 2.7% decline for BP, and 2.2% increase for Royal Dutch-Shell, according to UBS analysts. A number of new projects, from Indonesia and Papua New Guinea to the deep waters of Angola are planned to start in 2014. Canada is working on the Kearl oil sands processing facility to generate 170,000 barrels a day. The Kizomba project in offshore Angola will give Exxon 40,000 barrels a day. And the Banyu Urip offshore project in Indonesia 75,000 barrels a day as a 45% owner. Exxon estimates are that these and other projects could increase production by about 880,000 barrels a day, or 22% of current daily output after 2014. The cost of completing projects is going up. The Kearl oil sands project is now estimated to cost $19 billion, an increase of 21% from previous estimates....

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To get a right grasp of the situation as a whole from the bigger picture than the headlines, is to know that even in the current chaotic immigration handling of both parties, the US comes out a winner in long term by 2034. That it gives for the younger generation a better future. Congress's Budget Office economic report shows GDP higher by 2% from the higher immigration of 5.2 million added to the US workforce by 2034. US productivity higher by 0.2% and residential investment including construction up by a whopping 10%. The younger profile of immigrants will help the US compete with India's younger population, and as China ages to have what it and Europe is aspiring to have- a younger population. The best way to look at the immigration issue is for the short term- manage it better by organized method of immigration without chaotic border crossings by allowing potential immigrants to apply from their home country, a step taken by the Biden administration. What it or any Republican administration could not control is the immigration that happens from countries the US is at war with or in conflict with. It is important to recognize that this is what happened with Venezuela the largest component of the immigration border crossings in 2023. It was made worse by actions of both parties Democrats and Republicans and made worse in 2017 by more severe sanctions on Venezuela under the Trump administration.  Also part of the problem is Venezuelan mismanagement- providing oil at pennies a gallon, hurting imports and spiralling inflation that only worsened under US sanctions after 2017. Long term- To reflect that US sanctions on top of mismanagement by Venezuela is a warning for all developing countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and for the US. It meant 7 million refugees a staggering quarter of Venezuela's population fleeing the country, that burdened neighbors Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile. By 2022-2023 many of these refugees were making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Yet within this tragic situation for Venezuelan people how could the US best respond is to close the border as president Biden has proposed with McConnell and the Lankford effort in the Senate, which was blocked by the House under Mike Johnson. This gives time to assess the situation, correct US laws on asylum and parole that allowed this chaotic way to proceed under actions of both parties.And not let this destabilize the US by understanding that while Venezuela has suffered for its role in the crisis the US will ultimately have come out a winner, as pointed out by the Congressional Budget Office projections. CBO projections of this immigration impact by 2034 of increasing the workforce population by 5.2 million will provide higher GDP, more tax revenues, and higher productivity than without this group of Venezuelan and other immigrants in this special situation of 2022-2023. For the Immigration projections discussion given by Phillip Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office see page 51 of the Budget and Economic Outlook 2024 to 2034. For this search for term Congressional Budget Office or CBO which brings up the report on PDF and turn to page 51 or just click on Original Article on Lyrarc.   ...

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Goldman's final superspike phase idea for oil prices and the trend to anywhere from $150 to $200. The duration and magnitude of this phase remain uncertain. other analysts support this including CERA and Yergin who are normally cautious. See the WSJ link to this on the facts, and the thinking behind this, and why Yergin also agrees in WSJ 5/7/08. Note that the term final spike is used because at some point in the next 6-24 months the slowdown will be global, and the bite into worldwide oil and commodities in general consumption becomes significant. BRIC's countries will see themselves overextended at some point in the next 6-24 months, just when the bite into US consumption becomes significant and really painful which it is not at this point, and with that prices should come down, and some of the imbalances get corrected. "The core of our super spike view is that the lack of adequate supply growth and price insulated non-OECD demand growth is leading to a sharp spike in oil prices," says the Goldman Report of May 6, 2008. This could lead to a sharp correction in demand as a result of the spike in oil prices. Deutsche Bank's Sieminski also said in a April 25 report that there is a huge risk prices could go up perhaps $200, before demand is collapsing when ordinary people can no longer afford to burn energy the way they are doing now. The Institue of Supply Management's index of USA non-manufacturing business, service industries making up a large part of the economy, shows a first increase since December 2007, according to a Bloomberg, May 6 report, and this suggests increasing energy use. ...

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The nuclear trade deal with India and approval by the Nuclear Suppliers Group. If passed by Congresas in September the deal goes into effect. At the NSG, New Zealand, Austria and China were the holdouts and had to be persuaded by the United States. Under the deal India cannot conduct nuclear weapons tests and if it does its upto the USA to decide if it will continue to supply India with nuclear materials and technologies. India is running short of uranium and other nuclear materials it needs for its civilian andnuclear weapons programs since it was refused access by the NSG after earlier tests decades before. It also depends on how the US sees China and Pakistan in relation to India and its nuclear programs. One thing is certain India will push forward aggressively with new nuclear energy programs and setup its own nuclear energy reactors to provide its growing energy needs and to reduce existing shortages and also lower its oil bill. So in the next couple of years or the next decade the world will certainly see the peaceful development of nuclear energy and development of new technologies in the nuclear energy field as India becomes a key user and developer of nuclear energy technologies. At that point India may become a part of the fabric of peaceful nuclear energy development in the world as it meets asignificant part of its energy needs through nuclear reactors. It will be a welcome development as it will ease the burden on oil supplies that in the case of China became a key part of the upward pressure on oil prices as China relied mostly on oil and gas for energy needs. This is probably the thinking in the current Republican administration as it pushed hard for this nuclear deal to supply India....

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China's strategy for climate change action makes allowance for the need for coal as base energy, and insurance to prevent factory shutdowns from shortfalls of hydroelectric energy in drought seasons. It planned 80GW in 2024 for new coal powered plant construction. 

What should the US do? DJT and Republicans including North Dakota Governor Borghum say the US should also make some room for this in transition policy. DJT calls it "drill baby drill." Yet it is more nuanced than that, it means US will produce natural gas to supply Europe and keep gas and electricity prices down as a cost of living action. DJT knows industry has already put in plans for renewable energy production, it just won't be accelerated in ways that won't let the US economy grow. This is the rational for Alaska oil and gas and rare minerals policies shown alongside this article.

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Jeanne Whalen on the Two Speed Economy in the US September 2025- diverging paths of low and high income Americans. With the new administration in 2025 priorities shift to immigration and what to do about 14 million illegal migrants from Latin America and other places, war on fentanyl and drug trafficking gangs with hundreds of thousands of lives lost to fentanyl and drugs in the US, crime and safety which includes the unprecedented illegal movement of drug trafficking in the Nation, and to a bold posture on using US advantages of its huge market to get European Union, Japan, South Korea, and China to level the playing field on trade bring jobs home.The Biden administration had already conceded to DJT's approach in its one term presidency by shifting on uncontrolled illegal migration but not fast enough, by not removing DJT's tariffs, and failing to take an aggressive posture on fentanyl and drug trafficking. Of the DJT plan US has tariff based revenues of 10--15% for all countries imports into US can that it redirect to groups to soften any effects of tariffs. DJT administration oil transition policy of stretching out the transition to give middle class and lower classes cost of living relief was also accepted by the Biden administration and is now the policy of Democrat run California state government.  The US economy was slowing in 2024 under the Biden administration. What has changed in 2025 is that the US stock markets are responding to steps taken by the DJT Republican administration to lower the cost of doing business by softening regulations, and giving US business the upper hand in different industries, and rebuilding the manufacturing sector with calls for EU and Japan/South Korea to invest more in the US as a quid pro quo for market access. This has led to increase in the value of market portfolios of the income earners above 250,000, or 10% of American households. As this happens the process of trade renegotiation has introduced some uncertainty in 2025 and businesses are looking for more clarity before increasing investment and slowing job hiring which hurts younger people entering the job market and lower income Americans. Were things better under Biden? Government Covid assistance and payouts in the early years 2020-2021 helped lower income workers, as this faded and the cost of living autos, housing increased sharply under Biden in 2022-2024 the situation deteriorated. The situation today is similar to the situation in 2024 with the difference in 2025 that inflation is coming down just as government help is receding. And added factor is the DJT administration plan to tackle head on the increasing cost of Medicaid to about $1 trillion by adding new requirements and reducing subsidies. The federal workforce had a disproportionate share of black workers and the policy changes to reduce the federal workforce have increased black unemployment from 6.1% under Biden in August 2024 to 7.5 % a year later. Hispanics have seen slight improvement in unemployment to 5.3% in 2025, and the middle class incomes also have held up and are holding steady. Meantime Bloomberg points out that one third of people in the top 10% are living paycheck by paycheck because of high cost of housing, university education for children, and inflation.     ...

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Prospects for the global economy in 2016- debt to GDP ratios high in Turkey, Brazil and China lead to problems and slowing growth. India an exception in emerging markets with growth rate above 7%, benefitting from increasing foreign investment and halving of oil prices. U.S. recovers slowly, and the eurozone emerges from the debt crisis with need for further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Russia recovers gradually after a steep devaluation of the ruble. Ironically just when a slow recovery is taking place in 2015-2016, the private sector governance improvements, and serious tackling of debt problems, lead one to conclude that prospects for the long term are better today than in 2005 when the optimism was not well grounded because of weak governance and debt buildup.

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Oil price drops by $5 in one day to $65 a barrel as Iran US/Israel ceasefire June 23, 2025 following the carefully measured Iran missile strike (14 missiles) strike on Qatar airbase with early warning to the US. The move was seen as a moderation shown by Iran, and DJT pursued the option of ceasefire with Qatar's mediation. An Israel Iran ceasefire is expected in the next 12 hours.

This closes a chapter of the nuclear weapons development proliferation pursued by Iran and blocked by Israel and the US. It started with Israel's strikes on Iran nuclear sites. 

This puts the attention back to the economy and completing the trade agreements under the Trump administration's tariffs and efforts to level playing field in world trade.

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Problems of declining production at the Cantarell oil field in Mexico have been known for some time. Now President Calderon is trying to take on this issue. Brazil's Petrobras reached an impasse also some years back but was able to make the reforms, see the link to Petrobras. See the link in the WSJ for 8/30/07 on Petrobras . In 1995 President Cardozo of Brazil pushed through reforms after a oil workers strike at Petrobras. Upto that time Petrobras had problems similar to Pemex with underinvestment, state meddling in its affairs and finances, and too much bureaucracy and inefficiency. Can Calderon get reform for Pemex. Which amount of Pemex revenues should go to the government, how much should Pemex have so that it can adequately fund investment in new oil field exploration offshore, how to overcome bureaucracy and inefficient management, and how to arrange board representation so that Pemex can transform itself like Petrobras did. Some of the answers to these questions are emerging. Calderon wants to prepare his political position as the reform of Pemex is something that previous Presidents have failed to tackle. To do this the Senate's Energy Committee is holding a private debate on the issues. Calderon may try to forge a consensus with the Institutional Nacional Party, as he did with pension reforms if an all party consensus eludes him. Already in reforms of public finances that Calderon has pushed through Pemex will pay 71.5 centavos on every peso of oil extracted by 2012, instead of 79 centavos as royalty payments to the government. One reform being considered is to givePemex control of its own budget. At this time $10 billion a year goes back to the government on top of the royalty tax payments. Another reform would open up refining, transport and distribution to private enterprise. A think tank expert at CIDAC in Mexico City thinks that this can be done without reforming the constitution as was done to allow private investment in electricity generation in the 1990's. The same methods could be used to promote risk sharing contracts with other companies to bring in new technology for oil exploration, including companies from emerging countries like Petrobras, Petrochina and others, given Mexican's bias against the western oil majors. Especially because Petrobras has proven expertise in deep water drilling offshore. There is no question that Mexico is falling behind. One energy expert at the National Autonomous University estimates that the density of drilling rigs in the American portion of the Gulf of Mexico is 20 times greater than in the Mexican part, with Mexico having drilled only 20 exploratory wells in water deeper than 980 feet. in other areas like refining Pemex has not built a new refinery in 20 years, and imports 40% of its gasoline from US refineries, and its 7500 gasoline stations need expansion as Mexico's economy expands. Cardozo's transformation came with setting up an independent Board of Directors and putting an investment banker in charge. International oil companies were allowed into Brazil as a way to get Petrobras to compete with western oil companies and increase efficiency. And Cardozo got Petrobras listed on the New York Stock Exchange selling some 16% of Petrobras in the capital markets. This listing ensured transparency and improved corporate governance, as about 50 analysts now tracked Petrobras. ...

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"It may be that this iron curtain is small, unimportant and justified, but it is a bad sign." Howard Buffett took a stand in the House of Representatives against the VOA broadcasts being used inside the US in 1947.  Warren Buffett is the son of Congressman Howard Buffett of Omaha, Nebraska, who was on the Board of Education of Omaha, started a small stock brokerage firm, and ran for US Congress in 1942, reelected twice and in 1950. He also ran Howard Taft's Republican presidential campaign in 1952. Looking at Buffett in the FDR-Truman years- one sees a young Buffett in contrast to Warren Buffet's silence on the 2008 financial crisis, raising serious issues- about the Truman doctrine in 1947 on the floor of Congress, was Acheson falling dominoes analogy a dangerous one?  It worked in Turkey-Greece with $400 million in aid in 1947 but was Acheson/Truman using a dangerous analogy of dominoes that would later hurt the US in French colonial Indochina wars, and in the reference to protecting oil resources in Middle east in Iran, Iraq and Saudi to lead to wars that exist to this day in 2024? Wars DJT and Biden have both opposed in contrast to Reagan, Bush, and Obama. There is a huge contrast between the father Howard Buffett, descendent of Huguenot ancestors from 1600 New York, and the finance professional Warren Buffett who went to Columbia University in 1951-52 as student of Prof. Graham with 70 years in finance during which financial crises destabilized the US with Buffett not taking a stand. One hedge fund manager say it is pure nepotism to pass on the company Berkshire to Warren's son Howie. But he is not surprised- who else would be sure to keep the company headquarters in Omaha, keep things simple invested in index funds and much of it in a few companies leaving the investing to managers chosen by Warren, with Howie's job to make sure his father's principles remain. Howie is Warren Buffett's 70 year old son, who Buffett 90 years is setting up as his successor as chairman who will not do investing leaving it to managers, yet be able to change CEO's. Howie worked for a few years at See Candy, a Berkshire owned company before becoming corporate VP at ADM food producer, followed by working on his own farm in Decatur, Illinois which he enjoyed doing. At ADM Howie left after an anti trust investigation began, in which the company was charged with $100 antitrust fines for price fixing says the WSJ. What is Berkshire Hathaway? It is a trillion dollars of investment funds invested in a few companies under name Berkshire Hathaway, using some of the basic ideas of Benjamin Graham, a pioneer in careful investing, adopted by Warren. Where has Buffett put his money? Berkshire top ten investments are- about $90 billion in Apple, $70 billion split between Bank of America and American Express, $30 billion in Coca Cola, and $30 billion split between 2 oil companies Chevron and Occidental. He has not invested in pharmaceuticals or in renewable energy- in just a piece of America.This has generated a compound interest of about 14% over 3-5 years and about 12% over 10 years. He holds 30% of his investments in cash or fixed, mostly cash at this time. And holds the remaining 70% in stocks. ...