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The dangers to Turkey from external short term borrowings to finance its current account deficit. Turkey's current account deficit reached 10% of GDP in 2011. It is 8% in 2012 and is considered high by experts. The problem is short term borrowing from overseas which is sent through its banks for increasing levels of personal and housing loans. Were this flow to dry up because of a sharp downturn in the Eurozone economies it would damage Turkey's financial position. Bank short term external debt has doubled in 2011-2012 to $70.3 billion, or 9% of GDP, according to Capital Economics. The U.S. Fed and the ECB have eased global liquidity concerns, but risks are high as long as Turkey relies on short term borrowing. An escalation of the conflict with Syria also poses risks with fears of scaring away investors.

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Hamas moves closer to the Sunni alliance of Turkey-Egypt-Quatar as it accepts a ceasefire with Israel. Other Arab nations including Tunisia move closer to this alliance. A fall of the Assad regime in Syria is increasingly likely and would lead to Syria joining this group of Sunni nations that stand apart from Shiite Iran.

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India's crude oil imports were sharply higher in 2011 and 2012. India's imports of crude oil for the first 11 months of the 2012 fiscal year ending March 31, show a 40% increase over the same period in 2011 fiscal year. India's import bill was $128 billion for crude oil imports for the 11 months of fiscal year 2012. Indian subsidies to lower prices for fuel are $30 billion annually. The higher prices for crude create inflationary presssures in India and restrict economic growth.

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The Iraqi army takes over the Al Nuri Grand Mosque in Mosul, but what the mosque and the city itself lie in ruins. The minaret is gone in the debris, a shattered city is what is left from the Islamic State takeover of the city in 2014 and the eight month effort in 2017 by the Iraqi army to retake the city.   For more depth see links and groups or search- The problems of Mosul started with the openly sectarian administration of prime minister Nouri Maliki leading to alienation of Sunnis in Mosul. Corruption in the administration and weakness in the Iraqi army combined with alienation of Sunnis to create an opening for a militant group Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. As Iraqi units disintegrated Mosul fell, leading to a worsening of the refugee crisis in Syria and Iraq, increasing the flood of refugees to Europe, and the series of terrorist incidents in Paris, Berlin, London, rise of right wing groups in the European Union, in a chain reaction. The failure of the Obama administration to setup a "no fly zone" in Syria simply compounded the crisis into what it is today. At the root of the crisis - the failed efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and the sectarian conflicts in the region as a whole stretching from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Iran.     ...

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This WSJ editorial says president Obama's inaction, including the smaller step of not putting in place a safe zone in Syria, comes at a price for Liberals. The recent action by Governors in Michigan and other states turning down Syrian refugees, it says is one of the moral consequences of Obama's policies. For Liberals it says a policy of inaction and turning America's back to the needs of ordinary Syrians during the Arab Spring is not neutral, it also has consequences. The consequences for Liberals is the steady stream of refugees to Europe, and the greater intolerance in western societies as the safe havens created by these policies in the Middle East lead to terrorist actions in Europe or the U.S. In short doing little or nothing carries risks for the kind of society liberals want to see. Through developing policy in response to the Bush Administration's policies the Obama administration makes a series of errors of its own that compromise liberal values, including the collapse of the Arab Spring without American and western support, and the creation of a huge refugee crisis in Syria, Iraq, with a spillover to Jordan and Turkey, and further spillover to Europe. Liberals in Europe also face a similiar situation, including Liberals in France....

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Former Defense Secretary in the second term of the Obama administration, Chuck Hagel, says U.S. president Obama hurt his credibility when he failed to act on his own comments of a "red line" being crossed following the chemical attacks in Syria by the Assad government. Hagel was critical in an article in Foreign Policy magazine of the way the national security advisor, Susan E. Rice, ran discussions on foreign policy issues, with too many meetings and discussion followed up with deferring difficult decisions.

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Helene Cooper and Worth point to the vacillating response to the Arab Spring and movement for democracy and freedom in the Middle East of the Obama administration and President Obama. The dangerous overtones of this lack of U.S. leadership in the region as the U.S. completes a withdrawal from Iraq without an agreement for a residual presence, sees diplomacy reaching an impasse with Iran's development of nuclear weapons, and the Syrian civil war drawing in Turkey with its long border with Syria, and drawing in Saudi Arabia as a defendor of Sunnis in Syria. The stakes for Russia in Syria were minimal compared to that of people in the Middle East and the U.S., yet it had an outsized influence with its early military assistance to the Assad regime and the lack of U.S. leadership to resolve the situation in Syria in favor of the democracy movement.

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President Obama and President Maliki of Iraq meet at the White House in 2013- both in an awkward position. Maliki having to ask for American assistance in fighting Al Quaeda in western Iraq after insisting on America's complete withdrawal two years earlier. Obama having to face uncomfortable questions on the withdrawal and the current situation after American sacrifices in Iraq during the Bush period. The situation in 2011-2013 involved use of Iraqi airspace for the government of the previous Iranian president Ahmadinejad to supply the Assad regime. Maliki also opposed sanctions against the Assad regime. The visit by Maliki and requests for aid and increasing investment in the oil industry, comes as Iran under president Rouhani improves relations with Turkey in late 2013 to head off increasing Sunni-Shiite sectarianism and conflict in Syria, Iraq and other parts of the Middle East.

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Nour Malas and Joe Parkinson report from the town of Makhmour, retaken by Kurdish Peshmerga forces following airstrikes on ISIS militant positions. The crisis situation 20 miles from Erbil, capital of the Iraqi Kurdistan region and the coordination between Iranian advisors, U.S. military advisors, and the Peshmerga to push back the ISIS. Peshmerga say young Sunnis in the town joined the ISIS in droves, something never seen before. It also reveals the situation after the failure of the Maliki administration to build a state with support from all parts of the Iraqi population- Shiite, Sunni, Kurds and tribes- leading to the radical alienation of Sunnis. The late awakening of Iran, the U.S., and moderate Iraqis both Sunni and Shiite, to the dangers of the Maliki policies. The unraveling of the decade of Iraq rebuilding by the U.S. in such rapid manner leads to the stepping down of Maliki and beginning of a new non-sectarian approach and policies. The vacillating in the Obama adminstration's policies towards Syria and Iraq leads to a lack of direction in the region. ...

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To correct misgivings in many quarters about Syrian refugees not finding a haven in Gulf states, this letter from the Cato Institute points out that the population of Syrian refugees living in the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia has gone up by 1.1 million by 2013 from the beginning of the civil war. He cites World Bank data showing 241,000 Syrians living in the Gulf states before the civil war. By 2013 that number is 1.4 million. For Saudi Arabia the figures are up from 111,000 to 1 million.

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"China's Superbank," by Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe looks at the rise of China Development Bank to provide insights into the two decade real estate boom in China, and the trillions of dollars in loans made by state owned banks to finance China's state owned industries and infrastructure development. The authors say these loans based on land owned by the state, improved with roads and other infrastructure and then sold to industry, have helped finance China's urbanization and industrial development. But it has also created problems including eviction of farmers from the land by local government authorites increasing inequality, led to misallocation of capital on bad projects, and an unsustainable model of development focussed on state owned companies. A major side effect of this is not covered in the book. This is the impact of crowding out of credit for private industry in China, with privately owned business having to pay higher rates in the underground loan market or lacking financing. A major focus of the report "China: 2030" by the World Bank and China's official think tank Development Research Center is on reversing this development to come up with a sustainable development model. The report was supported by World Bank chief Zoellick and China's new prime minister Li Keqiang. "The Great Rebalancing," by Pettis, a finance professor at Beijing University, looks at the other side of the financing of China's boom- the low interest rates on savings for China's consumer. This reduces household incomes and reduces purchasing power as the interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation. Lower value of China's currency also reduces the purchasing power for China's consumers. Estimates show the low interest rates cost China's workers and consumers somewhere in the range of 3 to 8% of GDP annually in bank deposit income. This money is funnelled through the banking system to make more loans for infrastructure and growth at the state owned companies, concentrating exraordinary level of financing in one direction. As a result the consumption share of GDP in China has actually fallen in the two decades of hyper development. This is about 34% compared to 50-55% for other Asian economies....

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This editorial in the Journal provides reflections on U.S. foreign policy in the Obama years and advice for U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney before the third presidential debate on foreign policy on Oct. 22, 2012. It says the U.S. has always done better from a position of economic strength and defense preparedness in addressing foreign policy issues. It also points to the failure of president Obama to support the freedom struggle of the peoples of the Middle East, and a withdrawal from Iraq without securing an agreement that failed to consolidate the gains of the long conflict and resources spent in that region.

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A slight shift in American opinion favoring a deal with Iran is shown in a WSJ/NBC poll in July 2015 compared to the poll in April 2015. Support for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran remains stable at 36% in both polls, the opposed drops by 6 percentage points to 17% from 23%, and the percentage of people who say they do not know enough to formulate an opinion goes up to 46% from 40%. The intricacies of a nuclear technology deal and the sites involved lead to a high percentage of don't know enough to give an opinion. Factors hindering a deal include inspection of military sites, and Iranian intentions. Factors favoring reaching a deal now is the risk that this would mean Iran would go back into isolation and the opportunity to work with moderates might be lost. The Rouhani administration was an effort by voters to elect a government that could ease or remove sanctions to improve the economy and living conditions- its failure would lead to Iran losing an opportunity to open up to the world. The pressure from the U.S. Congress and Israel served to push for a verifiable and effective agreement to control development of nuclear technology for weapons systems. Behavioural factors involved are the very young population in Iran which has no memories about the period before the revolution in 1979- 70% of the population of 74 million are people under the age of 35. This group is eager for ties to the outside and could change Iran's outlook and policies int the future towards moderation. Risks in not reaching a deal also include the possibility of the Saudis developing nuclear technology and nuclear proliferation. Winners from a deal because of the flow of Iranian oil to world markets and a period of extended low oil prices are the U.S., Europe, China and India. Germany gains new markets to replace the growth in the Russian market after sanctions. Lifting of an arms embargo, an added risk in the last days of the talks, would be mitigated by making the lifting of that embargo very gradual....